The fortnightly Essential Research poll is one of the more encouraging sets of recent polling numbers for Labor, finding them up three on the primary vote to 32% with the Coalition up one to 34%, the Greens down two to 11%, One Nation down one to 7%, and the undecided component steady at 7%. Labor has its nose back in front on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, up one to 47% with the Coalition down two to 46% and the remainder undecided. Anthony Albanese also improves on the monthly leadership ratings, up three on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 46%, while Peter Dutton is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval 41%.
Also featured are some particularly interesting results on US politics, including a finding that Donald Trump was viewed more favourably in the survey period than he had been after the 2020 election (but before January 6). Trump was viewed favourably by 36% and unfavourably 56%, compared with 20% and 72% in 2020, and 23% felt Australia’s relationship with the United States would improve under Trump compared with 37% who felt it would worsen, the corresponding results last time being 7% and 63%.
A very occasional series of questions on unions suggests they are strongly supported, with 64% rating them important to working people today and 26% rating them unimportant, respectively up four points and two points, and a 63-37 split recorded in favour of them being good for the economy over bad. A third of respondents felt Labor was too close to the unions, another third felt the balance was about right, 10% thought they weren’t close enough, and the remainder weren’t sure. Labor scored higher than the Coalition on a series of questions involving the rights of workers, including a slight edge on the question of “ensuring unions are operating ethically”, with Labor favoured by 27% and the Coalition favoured by 23%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1137.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on its respondent-allocated two-party measure, and by 51-49 when it applies preference flows from 2022. The primary votes are Labor 30.5% (down one), Coalition 37.5% (down two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 6.5% (up one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1652.
Killing leaders has a rich tradition in the Middle East.
It was an important element in Australian strategy in Afghanistan where, for example, much of the work of the SAS involved sneaking up to some remote compound or other and killing a leader. One of the lesser publicized consequences was the killing of women, children and innocent men. The marker for this pattern can be found in the compensation payments. We have yet to see a comprehensive account of these payments. They are a sordid and hidden part of our Lost War.
Killing leaders can lead to a temporary loss of momentum and of disorganization. There might be a temporary boost in the standing of the leader of the country/faction/organization which delivered the killing.
There may be some distraction while successors sort each other out. But.. there are always either replacement organizations or replacement leaders for the existing organization.
The trajectory of the Afghanistan War serves to demonstrate how well killing leaders over a 20 year time span actually worked in practice.
We lost that war. Comprehensively.
Israel has been killing leaders since 1948. How is that coming along?
However emotionally satisfying the summary execution of any particular leader might be for some… whether it be Netanyahu or Haniyeh, it does little or nothing to change the drivers for the general insanity.
davosays:
at 4:01 pm
The child killing monster is finally dead… Good
Those Druze Christian kids blown to pieces on a Soccer field in the Golan Heights?
I don’t think Hezbollah have claimed responsibility, so fault may lay elsewhere?
+2
8,320.40
+143.80 (1.76%)today’
Cracker day on market.
Lordbainsays:
Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 4:11 pm
Shush FUBAR
=====================================================
It is a country that is currently having a national debate on whether it is ok to rape people in detention. You would think if the answer wasn’t obvious to the whole country. There must be something seriously wrong with the morality of a section of that country.
Simpson….
Your scenario of nuclear (3 bombs was it?) annihilation of Israel by Israel’s enemies is just to terrible to contemplate……especially, as you must be aware that the Israel is likely to have had nuclear weapons for some years now…..
You think, come this Book of Revelation stuff, that Israel would just kind of do nothing?
And you think that somehow Egypt and the other States nearby would somehow be immune?
We are not talking Perth-Melbourne distances but Melbourne-Geelong distances………
Trump – pardoned Jack Johnson for 1910[?] violation of the Mann Act.
Didn’t pardon Charlottesville protseters, one got 420 years from memory.
Kamala [remember her?] can’t even find a VP, 4 more years, i’m afraid.
Catprog @ #150 Wednesday, July 31st, 2024 – 4:20 pm
No they would not. Most scams could be detected simply by checking where the calls originate.
Indeed Entropy… I know I’m a bleeding heart lefty but systemic rape of prisoners is not something I think any civilised state would support…
There are some very odd premises on display in some of the posts:
Israel is the only true victim in the Middle East.
Israel is not the de facto the occupying power in Gaza, the Golan Heights and the West Bank.
Israel does not have genocide as a vision statement.
Israel has not been giving effect to elements of that vision in the Golan Heights, the West Bank and Gaza.
Israel does not apply total arbitrary police powers in areas it controls.
Israeli ‘settlers’ do not apply virtually unrestrained force.
Who can figure it?
Local talk-back radio 6PR on a whingefest about the price of beer going up due to excise increases.
Meanwhile the Oz Stock Market at a level higher than I have seen it for a long time…
Somebody/bodies are doing okay by the look of it……..
IMO, the most likely end scenario in the Middle East involves nuclear mushrooms.
‘Tricot says:
Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 4:34 pm
Who can figure it?
Local talk-back radio 6PR on a whingefest about the price of beer going up due to excise increases.
Meanwhile the Oz Stock Market at a level higher than I have seen it for a long time…
Somebody/bodies are doing okay by the look of it……..’
————————————-
Meh.
All the Liberals who were gaslighting interest rate rises, and who half-believed their own bullshit, are belatedly stampeding into stocks.
Boerwar –
“ There are some very odd premises on display in some of the posts:
Israel is the only true victim in the Middle East.
Israel is not the de facto the occupying power in Gaza, the Golan Heights and the West Bank.
Israel does not have genocide as a vision statement.
Israel has not been giving effect to elements of that vision in the Golan Heights, the West Bank and Gaza.
Israel does not apply total arbitrary police powers in areas it controls.
Israeli ‘settlers’ do not apply virtually unrestrained force.”
At least you tell both sides of the story. I admit to the ongoing horrors affecting my judgement.
“ IMO, the most likely end scenario in the Middle East involves nuclear mushrooms.”
Unfortunately, I share your pessimism.
Pied Piper
Only Labor to blame as everything is to do with them.
Butcher says:
Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 4:43 pm
… I admit to the ongoing horrors affecting my judgement.
…’
——————
Thanks. Me too. I find it almost impossible to stay rational in the face of the consequences of so much irrationality.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/topic/2024/07/27/how-win-election-progressive-politics
The Albanese government is back pedaling at a rate of knots after Penny Wong described the Golan Heights as Northern Israel. And this is after wandering around and pontificating in the Korean demilitarised zone for unknown reasons. She needs to retire.
Badthinker says:
Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 4:23 pm
Who else is firing missiles into Israel from Lebanon? Italy?
Unfortunately I think you are right. Let’s just hope it doesn’t happen any time soon.
Man, I hadn’t heard the Wong slip… that’s a rookie mistake especially given her level of experience..
Trump should get on the phone to stop the war in the Middle East. Apparently thats all it takes according to him.
Lordbainsays:
Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 5:05 pm
Man, I hadn’t heard the Wong slip… that’s a rookie mistake especially given her level of experience..
================================================
She referred to a town of Majdal Shams where the Druze kids were killed by a missile as a Northern Israeli town. It is in fact in Israel occupied territory. Her Department latter clarified they still regard it as occupied territory. If people were fired for making that sort of slip up nobody would have a job. Someone obviously has a huge problem with Penny Wong and happy to put the boot in for the slightest error. Even when that small error got quickly corrected.
It was a honest mistake. She was not trying to lie about anything. Unlike many on here do.
Did Abbott retire when the suppository of wisdom was spoken.?
https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/07/31/polls-essential-research-and-roy-morgan-open-thread-7/comment-page-4/#comment-4339426
Never mind, despite or because of, BRICs, non-aligned, America and allies and partners and friends, one of these days someone will take Apartheid central, Tel Aviv, off the map, first strike.
I wouldn’t doubt that a retaliation strike would follow.
It seems settlers are today’s colonisers (plenty o[f] that to resolve after empires in living memory disappeared, downunder very much included).
Neither Copenhagen Penny W(r)ong or from the ‘Med Sea to the Euphrates River … Albo’ seem to have anything to add, may be they can focus on between Indian/ Pacific Oceans.
Let’s not forget what happened after the Oslo Accords. Key signatories then are all gone.
… I would have thought the ICJ was clear, be it Golan (Syria), West Bank/ Jeruzalem (pretty sure one Tom Clancy novel had Swiss peacekeepers and a triumphate of the contesting religions working through things), Gaza, even the rest of the former Holy Land mandate of Palestine at 1967 borders etc.
(And can’t wait to see what will come out of ICC, UNGA should move on Palestinian statehood or UNSC (locked).)
The GWOT (bomb them back to the Stone Age I think was the phrase, followed by Arab Spring) or Cold War haven’t helped.
It certainly wasn’t the Poms’ to give away, divide and rule and all that.
Given the Syrians has launched attacks on Israel from the Golan Heights on multiple occasions, and the operational and tactical importance of the terrain to the survival of Israel, I have absolutely zero problem with them keeping it forever. They offered the Druze in the area Israeli citizenship.
pied piper
Yes, ASX 200 closes record all time high at around 8090 points. About time really!
I nearly took a little off the table, regretting it, should’ve…
It appears that Israel does not want to take on Hezbollah:
[‘With the killing in Iran of Hamas’s top political leader Ismael Haniyeh, the possibility that all key players have wanted to avoid — a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah — is now closer than ever.
…
Israel has not wanted a full-scale war as it knows very well that Hezbollah is a seriously more formidable fighting machine than Hamas.
In 2006, Israel had a war with Hezbollah. It did not go well. An official Israeli report — the Winograd commission report — later made clear that Israel did not win that war. It brought home to Israel several key factors: firstly, the terrain in southern Lebanon is far tougher to fight a war in than the flat and tiny enclave that is Gaza.
…
Furthermore, Hezbollah is trained, resourced and armed by Iran. While some Iranian missiles make their way to Hamas, an Israeli and Egyptian blockade have reduced the amount of weapons entering Gaza.
But with Hezbollah, there is no such constraint. Hezbollah controls Beirut’s international airport. This means that plane-loads of weapons can fly from Iran anytime. And they do.
In addition, the fighters of Hezbollah are much more honed and professional. One of the reasons Syria’s Bashar al-Assad was able to crush his internal dissent, fuelled in part by Sunni Muslim militia groups, is that Hezbollah’s Shia Muslim fighters flooded Syria.
They helped Assad to victory, and in doing so gained invaluable combat experience.’]
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-31/death-of-hamas-gaza-leader-means-israel-hezbollah-war-closer/104165602
“The Albanese government is back pedaling at a rate of knots after Penny Wong described the Golan Heights as Northern Israel. And this is after wandering around and pontificating in the Korean demilitarised zone for unknown reasons. She needs to retire.”
Ahh …… i see the new kid Butcher is another idiot prone to hysterics. 🙁 Will note that on my running credibility index. Now, should it rate above or below MM?
The leader of hamas*, do get on!
* terror attack that killed children cowering in their family panic rooms
imaccasays:
Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 5:34 pm
“The Albanese government is back pedaling at a rate of knots after Penny Wong described the Golan Heights as Northern Israel. And this is after wandering around and pontificating in the Korean demilitarised zone for unknown reasons. She needs to retire.”
Ahh …… i see the new kid Butcher is another idiot prone to hysterics.
=======================================================
Either a new kid or an old liar i guess.
Why are we discussing the middle east at length, – it’s too depressing that we humans could let it all get to this perpetual hell hole!
Let me be POTUS for three months:
1. Israel disarm immediately.
2. Two-State solution immediately.
3. Build a wall that would make Trump’s look like a row of match sticks.
.They offered the Druze in the area Israeli citizenship.
And those Druze Christians knocked it back.
The Druze in Syria are loyal to their own country, same as Druze in Israel.
Hezbollah haven’t claimed responsibility for killing those kids, so who’s the culprit?
Coal is being driven out because it lacks flexibility.
Arguing gas will be driven out of hte network because of cost.
CEC’s response to AEMO’s Quarterly Energy Dynamics for Q2 2024
The Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO’s) latest Quarterly Energy Dynamics analysis has shown that rising wholesale prices during winter months are largely attributable to an increased reliance on costly gas during winter months.
Clean Energy Council Policy Director – Market, Grid and Investment, Christiaan Zuur, said, “What is clear from this analysis is there is a strong need for more grid-scale batteries and long-duration energy storage technologies to moderate these price impacts. The other solution is to accelerate the build out of bulk renewable generation.”
“Either a new kid or an old liar i guess.”
Meh …… take em as they come i think. Judge them on what they actually post. Is is reasonable, informed, at all funny?? Really, there have been some good posters come and go on here over the years who’s political orientation is quite different from mine. Could still have a good discussion with them though.
Unfortunatley with various happenings in the world and Oz, lately there seem to be a few creatures crawled out who left what neurons they had under their slimy rock. Phases that come and go i think.
1. Israel disarm immediately.
Israel has gun laws as draconian as Australia’s, hasn’t done much good. Perhaps we should rethink?
2. Two-State solution immediately.
Since Gaza and the West Bank don’t share a border, it would be a 3 State solution, and doomed.
3. Build a wall that would make Trump’s look like a row of match sticks.
Trump’s ‘Wall’ is a row of matchsticks.
Easily defeated by a $99 Angle Grinder in 10 minutes.
Turnbull refutes Brandis’s claim about the creation of Home Affairs:
George Brandis’ account of the creation of the Department of Home Affairs is not right. So, reluctant as I am to correct my learned friend, let me set the record straight.
There had been for many years a proposal to bring all the domestic national security agencies together in one department, modelled on the United Kingdom’s Home Office. It was Labor Party policy from 2001 under Kim Beazley to 2007 under Kevin Rudd.
Rudd commissioned former ambassador to China Ric Smith to undertake a review of domestic security and while Smith did not recommend the creation of a Home Affairs Department in line with Labor policy, he did conclude that a small co-ordinating Department of Home Affairs could be effective at leading Australia’s counterterrorism effort if the department focused on strategic issues.
Several domestic security reviews undertaken in 2015, before I was PM, were supportive of the home affairs concept, although did not go so far as to formally recommend it.
The history demonstrates that this not particularly original idea was not a singular project of then secretary of the Department of Immigration and Border Security Mike Pezzullo let alone Peter Dutton, although they both supported it. Equally, it is true that the then Attorney General, George Brandis, opposed it just as he had opposed it when it was reconsidered during Tony Abbott’s time as PM.
I’m sure George had some machinery of government concerns informing his view, but he was equally apprehensive about more power being concentrated in a department headed by Dutton, let alone in Abbott’s time, Scott Morrison.’]
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/neither-dutton-nor-pezzullo-convinced-me-to-set-up-home-affairs-20240731-p5jxyp.html
Mal could not resist a dig at Dutton & Morrison and with the advantage of hindsight, he’s right.
Seen in the age.
I have a feeling he is not pontificating
The Paris Olympics have been fine. Here’s how they could be improved
In the swimming, I’d like to see the inclusion of sharks.
“In the swimming, I’d like to see the inclusion of sharks.”
Well, i suppose they do have them to think about in the surfing events??
Although importing them for the triathalon course in Paris would be animal cruelty writ large and they already have the mullet that cannot see.
Badthinker
Gaza and West Bank don’t share a border? We’ll give them a border…or have a three-state with United Nations controlling that third state.
I’d send in US, NATO and troops from other nations who want peace immediately – both sides disarm immediately – wall gets built immediately!
When do the Matildas play the USA?
They better get their act together or they’ll get killed.
Just checked – They play 3 am AEST
Go Matildas, Score a goal Caitlin Foord 🙂
Should we eliminate blowflies?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MdTszcZcIZM
Centre….
There used to be a TV programme years ago called ‘Lady for a Day’.
In your dreams surely….that you think you have the wit or wisdom to sort out the ME situation.
Appeaser and dictator at the same time? I think not.
Tricot
Tell you what – I’ve given you the solution.
Can you do any better?
I’m going to the American thread…
BT
Suggest you become factual about the Druze.
They are not Christian and do not have a country although the French did give them a slice of the Syrian mandate as part of the divide and rule policy (cf. the rationale for the existence of Lebanon)
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 6:24 pm
BT
Suggest you become factual about the Druze.
=============================================
He has never been factual about anything else before. I find it unlikely he will start now. Even more unlikely is that he will acknowledge he got the facts wrong.
Though proving my post here is wrong. Could be the best motivation for him to have a go at honesty? who knows.
I remember the first time I met a Druze.
In the late 70s I was a resident doctor at Concord Repat and called to the admissions section because a patient had become disturbed (I think the exact words were “some wog has gone ballistic”). Anyway, when all settled down what had happened was that when asked his religion he said “Druze”. The clerk had never heard of this and it did not exist on the computer checklist, so the clerk said “I will just put you down as Muslim”
Ah, multi-cultured Australia as expressed in a Repatriation Hospital.
Tricotsays, I imagine that Israel would absolutely use its nukes should it’s existence be threatened. But Israel does not have the relative strength against its enemies that it did say 20 years ago.
In the late 70s I was a resident doctor at Concord Repat and called to the admissions section because a patient had become disturbed (I think the exact words were “some wog has gone ballistic”
____________________________
Are you sure this wasn’t an episode of Kingswood Country?