The fortnightly Essential Research poll is one of the more encouraging sets of recent polling numbers for Labor, finding them up three on the primary vote to 32% with the Coalition up one to 34%, the Greens down two to 11%, One Nation down one to 7%, and the undecided component steady at 7%. Labor has its nose back in front on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, up one to 47% with the Coalition down two to 46% and the remainder undecided. Anthony Albanese also improves on the monthly leadership ratings, up three on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 46%, while Peter Dutton is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval 41%.
Also featured are some particularly interesting results on US politics, including a finding that Donald Trump was viewed more favourably in the survey period than he had been after the 2020 election (but before January 6). Trump was viewed favourably by 36% and unfavourably 56%, compared with 20% and 72% in 2020, and 23% felt Australia’s relationship with the United States would improve under Trump compared with 37% who felt it would worsen, the corresponding results last time being 7% and 63%.
A very occasional series of questions on unions suggests they are strongly supported, with 64% rating them important to working people today and 26% rating them unimportant, respectively up four points and two points, and a 63-37 split recorded in favour of them being good for the economy over bad. A third of respondents felt Labor was too close to the unions, another third felt the balance was about right, 10% thought they weren’t close enough, and the remainder weren’t sure. Labor scored higher than the Coalition on a series of questions involving the rights of workers, including a slight edge on the question of “ensuring unions are operating ethically”, with Labor favoured by 27% and the Coalition favoured by 23%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1137.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on its respondent-allocated two-party measure, and by 51-49 when it applies preference flows from 2022. The primary votes are Labor 30.5% (down one), Coalition 37.5% (down two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 6.5% (up one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1652.
It was the 70s and the Repat was a funny place, even for the period.
‘Mavis says:
Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 5:34 pm
It appears that Israel does not want to take on Hezbollah:
[‘With the killing in Iran of Hamas’s top political leader Ismael Haniyeh, the possibility that all key players have wanted to avoid — a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah — is now closer than ever.
…
Israel has not wanted a full-scale war as it knows very well that Hezbollah is a seriously more formidable fighting machine than Hamas.
In 2006, Israel had a war with Hezbollah. It did not go well. An official Israeli report — the Winograd commission report — later made clear that Israel did not win that war. It brought home to Israel several key factors: firstly, the terrain in southern Lebanon is far tougher to fight a war in than the flat and tiny enclave that is Gaza.
…
Furthermore, Hezbollah is trained, resourced and armed by Iran. While some Iranian missiles make their way to Hamas, an Israeli and Egyptian blockade have reduced the amount of weapons entering Gaza.
But with Hezbollah, there is no such constraint. Hezbollah controls Beirut’s international airport. This means that plane-loads of weapons can fly from Iran anytime. And they do.
In addition, the fighters of Hezbollah are much more honed and professional. One of the reasons Syria’s Bashar al-Assad was able to crush his internal dissent, fuelled in part by Sunni Muslim militia groups, is that Hezbollah’s Shia Muslim fighters flooded Syria.
They helped Assad to victory, and in doing so gained invaluable combat experience.’]
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-31/death-of-hamas-gaza-leader-means-israel-hezbollah-war-closer/104165602‘
—————————————-
Some comments:
Israel has been extremely active over the years intercepting weapons systems shipped from Iran to Lebanon. The situation is more porous that that in either Lebanon or Yemen but there is no constraint-free 100% free pass for weapons. Some resupply during war would certainly happen.
Heshbollah has the sort of strategic depth denied to Hamas in Gaza.
True that Heshbollah has a core of highly experienced cadres. However these have not fought against enemies that have IDF capacities. It fought against light mobile forces. (See Greens’ policies for gutting the ADF!)
Heshbollah has far more missiles fitted and retrofitted with guidance systems than did Hamas. That said, most targets in Israel are hardened. Safe places for civilians are everywhere.
Israel’s heavy weapon stand off capability is far superior to that of Heshbollah. In particular, 500kg and 1000kg bombs are hugely superior to anything that Heshbollah has. It also has specialized bunker busters with deep penetration.
It is true that the terrain in southern Lebanon favours the defence.
One factor not discussed above is that Heshbollah has succeeded in forcing 100,000 Israelis out of northern Israel since Oct 7. Politically, this is a huge political problem for Netanyahu.
I believe substantial opinion inside the Netanyahu Government wants an all out war with Heshbollah.
I believe that the Heshbollah leadership does not want an all out war with Israel.
I believe it is highly likely that the Biden administration has leaned on Netanyahu not to engage in all out war with Heshbollah.
Another consideration not raised above is that the disruption and cost of this war, now the longest in Israel’s history, are cumulative and must be starting to hurt. War with Heshbollah would require the reservists who have gone home being called up again.
Finally, the proximity of the US POTUS election now means that both Netanyahu and Putin are going to game plan according to whom they think will win. I believe both were behaving as if Trump were a shoe-in. A Harris ascendancy – even before the election – might trigger some pretty drastic decisions.
I wonder when ‘Wog’ replaced ‘Dago’.
An Australian newspaper in the 40s gave this definition:
The dago, generally speaking, is a member of those darker races which have colonised South America and whose original breeding ground is to be sought in the Peninsulas of the Mediterranean. The chief characteristics of the dago are knives, rages, romantic passions, reckless behaviour, garlic and guitars. With these things the being in question create a perpetual disturbance quite out of proportion to their importance, or in other words, to their wealth; and have been a terrible nuisance to the more solid communities who are acquainted with the reign of law.
Jesus christ BW, somehow you manage to slag the greens in a hypothetical middle east conflict… what did Bob Brown do to you?
By the 60s I think Dagos were southern European while wogs were arabs etc.
The famous sign that British Australian greengrocers put on their shop windows “Come to my shop before the day goes”
‘frednk says:
Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 6:12 pm
Should we eliminate blowflies?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MdTszcZcIZM‘
—————————
Which ones? There are 1900 species.
I am a fan of blowies, although not a fan of flystrike.
Other than that they play a landscape role in recycling dead’uns.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calliphoridae
I remember when the Chinese restaurant was referred to as the ‘Chow Shop’.
The government’s response to the findings of the Disability Royal Commision are in… and oh boy even I didn’t think it would be this shit.
The government has accepted in full 13 and in principle 117 of the 172 recommendations it has primary or shared responsibility for.
Principle of course being worth less then the paper it’s written on… champion of the people albo is not
Let’s hope the ideological idiots who put together the Greens defence policies have actually noticed what has happened to Hamas.
These same defence idiots are still doing what they have done for the past forty years: slagged every single defence purchase. Without fail. They do not want an effective ADF. End of story.
They have learned nothing from what happened in the interwar years when the defence-gutted democracies very nearly went under to Tojo, Hitler, Franco, Mussolini & Co.
The Greens appear to have learned absolutely nothing from what has happened to Hamas. Light mobile forces get squashed mercilessly by large forces armed with heavy weapons.
Perhaps the Greens are too busy astroturing the Gaza horror to actually learn something real.
Dangerous fools, IMO.
Australia being then a nation of sophisticated culture, poetry was also deployed: ‘clog wog’.
And begosh and begorrah, and speaking of shop windows as who should know, who could ever forget: ‘INNA’.
What is wrong with the government’s response to the disability royal commission? Nothing in it seems like it would be disappointing.
Bw
Indeed
The Druze are not Christians. They split off from Shia Islam centuries ago but are now very much a different Monotheistic, Abrahamic faith.
‘Bizzcan says:
Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 7:22 pm
What is wrong with the government’s response to the disability royal commission? Nothing in it seems like it would be disappointing.’
——————
Meh. Labor bad. The Greens should get into meteorology. They know the weather before it happens and are still whinging about it for months afterwards.
The one I was really glad to see is that the Albanese Government is not committing to is getting rid of special schools.
This recommendation IMO was disability extremist ideology gone mad.
I have a bit to do with one such school and regard it as an example of exactly why I am, at times, proud to be an ACT citizen. It is humane, caring, and works to the max to enable disabled teenagers to cope with life.
So says Wikipedia, Steve777
The Druze act like Christians, good enough for me.
Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign has announced that she will start traveling with her future running mate next week and Philadelphia is the first stop they will make.
At this time VP Harris has made no decision on who she wants her running mate to be for the 2024 presidential election. Harris will be in Philadelphia on Tuesday, August 6, 2024.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-31/india-four-corners-youtube-blocked/104163346
YouTube blocks ABC Four Corners investigation into India’s ‘nest of spies’ targeting Australian critics after Indian government’s demand
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/why-documents-at-this-embassy-in-australia-will-no-longer-be-recognised-by-the-countrys-rulers/hjxvn1qqf
The Taliban has told Afghan Australians it will no longer recognise documents issued by the Afghan embassy in Canberra – sending the community in panic.
https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-block-eu-statement-venezuela-election-results-foreign-policy-josep-borrell/
The EU failed to put on a united front on Venezuela’s contested election after Hungary vetoed a statement that expressed concern about alleged “flaws and irregularities” in the voting and called for greater transparency.
https://www.wheresyoured.at/to-serve-altman/
Based on estimates of their burn rate and historic analyses, Ed Zitron hypothesizes that OpenAI will collapse in the next 12-24 months unless it raises more funding than in the history of the valley and creates an entirely new form of AI.
The Rashomon Effect
The 40 year old gentleman was in deep distress. His wife was caressing his left shoulder in a bid to alleviate his pain. Within the last 48 hours, he has met three doctors (specialists to be precise) and underwent an ECG, ECHO, MRIs of shoulder and neck bone, and a battery of blood tests. The wife’s hands were overflowing with the prescriptions, bills and the lab reports. Being an IT professional, he has been suffering from neck pain often. Three days back, the pain started to shift to his left shoulder and arm. Naturally, he googled his symptoms which indicated the possibility of an imminent heart attack. The couple had rushed to a local doctor who performed blood tests and ECG and sent him to a cardiologist.
The cardiologist thought it could still be a myocardial ischemia and performed an echo test and Troponin. It turned out to be normal but to be on the safer side, he prescribed low dose blood thinners, cholesterol medications and advised him to get an orthopedic opinion.
The pain was excruciating and the orthopedician being a specialist in keyhole surgeries suggested that it could be a tear in the shoulder tendons since the patient was a diabetic. He performed an MRI of the shoulder which was equivocal. He gave him some more medications and suggested he meets a neurologist ‘just in case’ it could be a nerve problem. After examination, the neurologist too thought it could be a diabetic or viral neuropathy based on the high diabetes. He advised a few tests and an MRI of the cervical spine. Finally, it turned out to be a slipped disc in the neck bone and he landed in our net.
What we see here is a common healthcare situation of late. Every specialist sees the patient and his symptoms from his specialized narrow perspective. The clinical notes, investigations and management are tailored to the doctor’s specialization. This is what I would state as Rashomon Effect.
Rashomon was a famous movie directed by the celebrated Japanese auteur, Akira Kurosawa. In this movie, a murder scene is described by the different witnesses in their own point of view. All their views are different from one another. But they all believed that they are speaking the truth because it is their own correct perspective.
Similarly every medical specialist has their own approach towards the patient, typically focussed on the system in which they have specialized. Upper stomach pain is seen as esophagitis by gastroenterologist, angina by cardiologist and costochondritis by the orthopedician. If we look at their clinical notes and examination findings, it would match their diagnosis since their mind is blinkered. The specialised mind fills the gaps with his previous observations, knowledge about their organ system and myopic training.
With increasing super specialization, the patient is not seen as a whole but an affected organ system. The specialist of the organ system falls prey to the Rashomon effect and explains the patient’s symptoms from his perspective. It is difficult to avoid this in the upcoming future since general practitioners are on the verge of getting extinct now, thanks to trends of medical education in India. Unless the medical community talks about this, this could reach tremendously dangerous proportions.
Hundreds of Aussie jobs in limbo as iconic burger chain goes into voluntary administration
Two dozen Carl’s Jr restaurants have been affected by the move.
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/hundreds-of-aussie-jobs-in-limbo-as-iconic-burger-chain-goes-into-voluntary-administration-221022769.html?guccounter=1
“Hundreds of Aussie jobs are now in limbo after US burger chain Carl’s Jr was plunged into voluntary administration. The first restaurant opened its doors on the New South Wales Central Coast back in 2016 and dozens have followed since.
There are 24 locations that are owned by CJ’s Group while a further 25 are independently owned and operated by third-party sub-licensees. The two dozen operated by the Australian arm of the US company are the ones that have been placed into voluntary administration.
Only four of the 24 restaurants will remain open while the remaining 20 have been closed down immediately while creditors assess the books.”
Centre…..
Your ‘solution’ is not solution at all otherwise I may have given it a second thought.
Your fantasy is similar to the stuff that 2 drunks come up with in a pub, after several beers, as they agree on how to “fix” the world’s problems.
Neither do I have to ‘come up with anything better’ nor would I have the arrogance to do so – at least not coming at the megalomania you have come up with in your ‘solution’.
Boerwar:
Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 6:58 pm
Thanks for your commentary. I’m not knowledgeable enough to comment on the ME other than to suggest it will never be sorted.
‘Mavis says:
Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 7:41 pm
Boerwar:
Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 6:58 pm
Thanks for your commentary. I’m not knowledgeable enough to comment on the ME other than to suggest it will never be sorted.’
——————–
In a sad way, that is probably all any of us need to know.
I believe that Hezbollah does want all out war with Israel. That’s why they exist. They have been firing hundreds of missiles at Israel. It’s hardly the act of people who want peace.
Once Israel has finished dealing with Hamas, they have every justification to destroy Hezbollah.
Bt
You do go on with bullshit – just admit you have no idea about the Druze
FUBAR
It is a pity you are being a full bottle 100% drongo troll here.
If Heshbollah wants or wanted to start a war with Israel what is stopping it? There is nothing easier than starting a war. You just do it.
The fact is that both sides are more or less calibrating their tit for tats in a tightly constrained choreography of death and destruction.
It is clear that up to now NEITHER side wants to start a full scale war with the other. Otherwise they would have done so.
The $64 question now is whether the extremist orthodox religionists who control the far right of Netanyahu’s Government, and from your posts apparently your soul mates, get their way.
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 7:54 pm
Bt
You do go on with bullshit – just admit you have no idea about the Druze
=====================================================
A 30 seconds read of the first section of the Wikipedia entry. Would tell him his past comments are BS. Instead he prefers to double down on them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Druze
There’s Druze and then there’s druze.
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Druze
Maybe youse are all correct. Just sayin.
I know it seems a bit rude to ask a polls based question here but can someone explain how poll results are accurate when they report the Coalition being on x% primary vote?
How does the number account for the various permutations of the Coalition? (Lib, Nat, LNP, CLP and WA Nats)
In electorates where two of the constituent parts run against each other, for example Libs v Nats – how does the single primary vote percentage account for this?
Not doubting the accuracy of the polls but just curious about the methodology.
O.C.
The issue isn’t what I do or don’t know, it’s 12 kids killed in a rocket attack.
Netanyahu has blamed Hezbollah, Hezbollah have denied responsibility.
Badthinkersays:
Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 8:19 pm
O.S.
The issue isn’t what I do or don’t know, it’s 12 kids killed in a rocket attack.
Netanyahu has blamed Hezbollah, Hezbollah have denied responsibility.
================================================
Which is not relevant to your claim that Druzes are Christians though. Which anyone with any comprehension would know is the claim that OC has called you out on.
Tropical Wonderland other than in WA I don’t think the Liberals and Nats are involved in any three cornered contests.
davidwhsays:
Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 9:32 pm
Tropical Wonderland other than in WA I don’t think the Liberals and Nats are involved in any three cornered contests.
===========================================
When a member is retiring the Liberals and Nationals run against each other in some seats. I haven’t looked on who has announced their retiring. So off the top of my head. I think Grey in SA could be 3 cornered? Possibly Monash in Victoria but Broadbent was turfed and not retired.
out of sorts @ #51 Wednesday, July 31st, 2024 – 11:19 am
😆 😆 😆
I’ve been waiting all day to laugh at this.
Aqualung @ #78 Wednesday, July 31st, 2024 – 12:54 pm
Your bill was for electricity used last quarter I assume. The rebate will likely be paid for the electricity you have used this quarter. Though you can always find out by ringing your electricity supplier, as opposed to finding yet another thing to hang around the government’s neck.
@davidwh – good point. According to Antony Green (in 2020) 3 cornered contests have dropped from 40 percent of electorates in the mid 80’s to 8 % since 1998. (Around 10 electorates)
Is the 8% of electorates small enough to not matter in polling? Or is there a way of accounting for the 8%?
https://antonygreen.com.au/the-decline-of-three-cornered-contests-at-federal-elections/
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 9:38 pm
out of sorts @ #51 Wednesday, July 31st, 2024 – 11:19 am
Only 10 mins left until outright disappointment guys. Have fun
I’ve been waiting all day to laugh at this.
============================================
The real time laugh, was for those who saw no follow up post to that one, after around 10-15 minutes following it.
Though to be fair, i suspect OOS was extremely disappointed around 10 minutes after that post.
Quote: “Never go the early crow”
Ironic post from you entropy given ur claims of Albo surfing to victory off the back of interest rate cuts this year.
Lars Von Triersays:
Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 9:54 pm
Ironic post from you entropy given ur claims of Albo surfing to victory off the back of interest rate cuts this year.
==============================================
Not sure when i said that? Though i don’t believe the election is until May 2025 myself. So still time for interest rates cuts still i guess. I think it is to early to call that they want occur. So if you want to crow about it. Take my advice and wait to the election before calling it.
Current market betting is for there to be at least 1 interest rate cut before Feb. 2025. According to Alan Kohler on ABC news tonight. I don’t know what the betting was before Dec. 2024 though.
“Westpac economists predict that the current level of 4.35% will be the peak of the cash rate, and that we might expect the first rate cuts to occur around November, with a cut to 4.10%. They predict that the cash rate will eventually settle at 3.10% in the September quarter of 2025 (9 July 2024)”
It’s more credible to admit a mistake and move on entropy then obfuscate.
Anyhoo u have fun standing up to c@t.
Lars Von Triersays:
Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 10:04 pm
It’s more credible to admit a mistake and move on entropy then obfuscate.
Anyhoo u have fun standing up to c@t.
================================================
Your claim is i predicted interest rates would come down this year. There is still 5 months left of this year. Even if i did make that prediction? Why would i claim to have got it wrong before the prediction time frame was up? Are you going to claim your prediction of a November 9th election is wrong too now?
Butcher @ #169 Wednesday, July 31st, 2024 – 4:59 pm
Just another lie from someone who has swung by recently and started dropping fake ‘truth bombs’ on Labor.
The nuanced point that the Foreign Minister was making was this:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jul/31/penny-wong-golan-heights-strike-australian-government-occupied-territory
“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it” — George Santayana
“It’s easy to make a small fortune in aviation — You start with a large fortune.” (Anon.)
After the predictable failure* of Bonza/Bogan/Bozo Airlines, Rex Airlines (intercity jet services) appears to have followed suit.
Regional Express appears to be still operating, but Saab 340 airframes are a finite resource.
If competition is the “answer”, force the split of Qantas and Jetstar.
When Jetstar dies, maybe a genuine third competitor will emerge.
* Why do they persist? Suckers, tax write-offs, or something else?
C@tmomma –
Wong said a missile struck a northern Israeli town when it actually struck a town in occupied Syrian territory. At such a flashpoint in what could become a major middle eastern war with occupied territories at centre stage to make such a mistake either she is a foreign minister who has no idea what is going on (incompetent) or Joe’s excuse that she was tired from flying in a plane (dementing). This follows on from her cutting funding to UNRWA based on nonexistent evidence from Israel. The government was quick to distance itself from her statement. She should resign.
》If competition is the “answer”, force the split of Qantas and Jetstar.
When Jetstar dies, maybe a genuine third competitor will emerge.
I have heard it said that Australia is big enough for 1.5 airlines.
“She should resign.”
You should chill a bit. Instead of being such an embarrassing tryhard at trolling c@t.
Butchersays:
Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 10:46 pm
C@tmomma –
Wong said a missile struck a northern Israeli town when it actually struck a town in occupied Syrian territory.
================================================
What rot, the missile struck a Druze town in Israeli occupied territory. If the territory was in Syria it wouldn’t be occupied. As it was originally part Syria to begin with before Israel occupied it. The current controlling Government of that territory is Israel and not Syria though. Thus it is referred to as Israeli occupied territory
Yet you believe you can call out Wong for getting it wrong. When your own statement is much further from the facts than hers.
Quote: “Medice, cura te ipsum”
As everyone knows if they ever watched the Princess Bride, never fight a ground war in Asia, never get into a flame war on PB.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LUUk6wVNrY
Butcher @ #244 Wednesday, July 31st, 2024 – 10:46 pm
imacca is correct, you should chill. And if you want to ignore the clarification that I put up, which explained that a town which had been occupied by Israel for 52 years was considered ‘Israeli’, even though it exists in the Occupied Territories of the Golan Heights, such that it can be both, then you are willfully ignoring that nuanced fact for your own benefit.
Great, another person choosing to leave, and making it clear it’s you know who…
Also Wong fucked up; if she hadn’t, there would be no need to backtrack. And unlike posters here on this humble forum… Wong’s job is foreign affairs. I don’t think she should resign, but its a fuck up non the less…
Tropical Wonderland: they’d just add the two. In a three-cornered seat, the coalition party with the lowest vote is probably on about 20%. If a quarter of their preferences go to Labor instead of the major coalition party, that’s 5% difference. If this happens in 8% of the seats in parliament, 5% of 8% is 0.4% – a tiny amount, within margin of error of just about any poll.
The WA Nats aren’t part of the coalition, and run against the Libs with a fair bit of venom in WA state elections, but there’s only three federal seats they’ll be competitive in in 2025 (Durack, O’Connor and Bullwinkel). Not enough to matter.
Similarly, Lib vs Nat contests in NSW or Vic only usually happen when an MP retires (sometimes not even then), and there’s not too many of those seats at any given election. Nicholls 2022, Mallee and Gilmore 2019, Murray 2016… you get the idea.
_______
Also, chalk me up as another person who wishes Nadia88 would reconsider leaving. I like talking about numbers much more than I like barracking for a team and hating all opposition to it. (I have the Freo Dockers for that, and even then, I’ve been enjoying watching the Kangas and Hawks getting slightly less awful.)