Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)

The fortnightly Essential poll finds Labor’s stocks rising a little — but not as much as Donald Trump’s.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll is one of the more encouraging sets of recent polling numbers for Labor, finding them up three on the primary vote to 32% with the Coalition up one to 34%, the Greens down two to 11%, One Nation down one to 7%, and the undecided component steady at 7%. Labor has its nose back in front on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, up one to 47% with the Coalition down two to 46% and the remainder undecided. Anthony Albanese also improves on the monthly leadership ratings, up three on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 46%, while Peter Dutton is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval 41%.

Also featured are some particularly interesting results on US politics, including a finding that Donald Trump was viewed more favourably in the survey period than he had been after the 2020 election (but before January 6). Trump was viewed favourably by 36% and unfavourably 56%, compared with 20% and 72% in 2020, and 23% felt Australia’s relationship with the United States would improve under Trump compared with 37% who felt it would worsen, the corresponding results last time being 7% and 63%.

A very occasional series of questions on unions suggests they are strongly supported, with 64% rating them important to working people today and 26% rating them unimportant, respectively up four points and two points, and a 63-37 split recorded in favour of them being good for the economy over bad. A third of respondents felt Labor was too close to the unions, another third felt the balance was about right, 10% thought they weren’t close enough, and the remainder weren’t sure. Labor scored higher than the Coalition on a series of questions involving the rights of workers, including a slight edge on the question of “ensuring unions are operating ethically”, with Labor favoured by 27% and the Coalition favoured by 23%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1137.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 50.5-49.5 on its respondent-allocated two-party measure, and by 51-49 when it applies preference flows from 2022. The primary votes are Labor 30.5% (down one), Coalition 37.5% (down two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 6.5% (up one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1652.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,504 comments on “Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

Comments Page 8 of 31
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  1. Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Thursday, August 1, 2024 at 8:34 am
    Either we have an independent foreign policy and agree with the other 194 countries that the Golan Heights are illegally occupied or we outsource our foreign policy to US/Israel.

    Wong cannot get away with this by saying “oops, silly me”. She was strident when Scotty misspoke and confused the “one China policy” with “one country, two systems”.

    Labor’s foreign affairs spokeswoman, Penny Wong, said that “in diplomacy, especially on issues of our national security, words matter”.

    “There are few more sensitive issues for our security than Taiwan and Mr Morrison’s lack of focus on detail is enough to keep you up at night,” Wong told Guardian Australia.

    “Days after his government was beating the drum for conflict over Taiwan, today Mr Morrison appears to have shifted Australia’s bipartisan position to abandoning Taiwan entirely.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/06/scott-morrison-accidentally-endorses-beijing-policy-for-taiwan-in-foreign-policy-blunder
    ==================================================

    Just to clarify, Wong got her Department to issue a correction for her poorly worded statement. Did PM Scott Morrison’s Department do the same for his?

  2. FUBAR @ #347 Thursday, August 1st, 2024 – 11:11 am

    Mostly Interested says:
    Thursday, August 1, 2024 at 9:50 am

    You stated at 9.41am “I myself and involved in lobbying for one sector to be brought forwards.” clearly indicates you are favouring one over the other.

    Not amongst those who already have it.

    But just off the top of my head these study areas which have professional placements of some sort or other. I’m involved in lobbying for one of these as that’s the field I’m employed in (it is not law). I’ll leave it up to you to rank these by need and impact on society.

    Medicine (MBBS or MD)
    Pharmacy
    Physiotherapy
    Occupational Therapy
    Dentistry
    Veterinary Science
    Speech Pathology
    Podiatry
    Medical Imaging/Radiography
    Allied Health
    Dietetics/Nutrition
    Exercise Physiology
    Optometry
    Orthoptics
    Paramedicine
    Prosthetics and Orthotics
    Civil Engineering
    Mechanical Engineering
    Electrical Engineering
    Environmental Engineering
    Law (LLB or JD)
    Environmental Science
    Architecture
    Psychology
    Counseling

  3. Entropy @ #351 Thursday, August 1st, 2024 – 11:21 am

    Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Thursday, August 1, 2024 at 8:34 am
    Either we have an independent foreign policy and agree with the other 194 countries that the Golan Heights are illegally occupied or we outsource our foreign policy to US/Israel.

    Wong cannot get away with this by saying “oops, silly me”. She was strident when Scotty misspoke and confused the “one China policy” with “one country, two systems”.

    Labor’s foreign affairs spokeswoman, Penny Wong, said that “in diplomacy, especially on issues of our national security, words matter”.

    “There are few more sensitive issues for our security than Taiwan and Mr Morrison’s lack of focus on detail is enough to keep you up at night,” Wong told Guardian Australia.

    “Days after his government was beating the drum for conflict over Taiwan, today Mr Morrison appears to have shifted Australia’s bipartisan position to abandoning Taiwan entirely.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/06/scott-morrison-accidentally-endorses-beijing-policy-for-taiwan-in-foreign-policy-blunder
    ==================================================

    Just to clarify, Wong got her Department to issue a correction for her poorly worded statement. Did PM Scott Morrison’s Department do the same for his?

    Oakeshott Country is just trying to hang his Anti Labor hat on a statement which needed clarification and which was subsequently provided.

  4. From the Guardian blog

    ‘Senator wants Australian Olympics not to replicate supposedly ‘satanic, degenerate and disgusting’ Paris opening ceremony

    Senator Ralph Babet has written an open letter to the Australian Olympic Committee, seeking “assurances from those planning the Australian Olympic Games that our event will honour tradition, history and culture”.

    Babet, of the United Australia Party, called out the Paris games’ opening ceremony “that was in my opinion satanic, degenerate, and disgusting,” he wrote in a post on Twitter.’
    =======================
    Will it be Babet or Pocock who holds the Senate BOP after the next election?

  5. From the Guardian blog

    ‘Asked about priorities in her new role as minister for Indigenous Australians, Malarndirri McCarthy says her goal is to “bring different political allegiances together”:…’
    ——————————–
    Clearly totally clueless about Dutton’s form guide.

  6. ‘Senator wants Australian Olympics not to replicate supposedly ‘satanic, degenerate and disgusting’ Paris opening ceremony

    Senator Ralph Babet has written an open letter to the Australian Olympic Committee, seeking “assurances from those planning the Australian Olympic Games that our event will honour tradition, history and culture”.

    Babet, of the United Australia Party, called out the Paris games’ opening ceremony “that was in my opinion satanic, degenerate, and disgusting,” he wrote in a post on Twitter.’

    Small things amuse small minds. 😐

  7. I did C@t, unfortunately it will come as too little too late for him as he’ll have graduated well before the payments kick in…..

  8. Sunlight and fresh air used to be the basis for Hospital design.
    Somewhere along the way it became:
    ” Those spaces could be filled with concrete, you know?”

  9. Biden and Harris are a total disgrace. They need to resign within the hour. Australia is still ahead of the USA on the “gold” medal tally.

  10. Lars Von Tryer –

    “ Incrementalism works – you mean like it’s 10 months since the haff legislation was passed and not one house has been approved to be built ?

    Utopia is truly a documentary.”

    Mostly Interested –

    “ Well they haven’t caused anyone to kill themselves, so lets put a tick in the ‘not shit’ column shall we?”

    Macquarie University analysed 324 deaths and found the median age at death was 50.7, and that people experiencing homelessness had a mortality rate across age groups that was 80% higher than the general population. So let’s put a tick in ‘shit column’

  11. Alpha Zero @ #344 Thursday, August 1st, 2024 – 10:32 am

    Pan Zhanle is over 2% (more than 1 second) faster than the 2nd best swimmer in the world over 100m?

    Every other swimmer in the race 2nd through to 8th finished within 0.5 seconds of each other.

    In Tokyo, there was just over a 1 second spread between 1st and 8th between Caleb Dressel of the USA (47.02) and Nandor Nemeth of Hungary in (48.10) who did a 47.5 last night.
    Kyle Chalmers did 47.08 in Tokyo. He did 47.48 last night.
    Other competitors and their Tokyo times for comparison:

    3. David Popovici, Romania, 47.49 (48.04 and 7th in Tokyo)
    4. Nandor Nemeth, Hungary, 47.50 (48.1 and 8th in Tokyo)
    5. Maxime Grousset, France, 47.71 (47.72 and 4th in Tokyo)

    A 0.4 second improvement on the World record time is something that hasn’t been seen since the 1970s. In a pool that hasn’t yielded fast times.

    Rio 2016 had a 0.83 seconds spread between Kyle Chalmers and the rest of the field…

    Small wonder the crowd was silent…

    What I will add is that this is a 19 year old who has not (yet) been involved in any of the suspicious testing. First major games as well.

  12. C@tmommasays:
    Thursday, August 1, 2024 at 11:27 am
    ‘Senator wants Australian Olympics not to replicate supposedly ‘satanic, degenerate and disgusting’ Paris opening ceremony

    Senator Ralph Babet has written an open letter to the Australian Olympic Committee, seeking “assurances from those planning the Australian Olympic Games that our event will honour tradition, history and culture”.

    Babet, of the United Australia Party, called out the Paris games’ opening ceremony “that was in my opinion satanic, degenerate, and disgusting,” he wrote in a post on Twitter.’

    Small things amuse small minds.
    ==================================================

    His Wikipedia page makes interesting reading for instance:

    “On Christmas Day 2014 in Toorak, Babet was charged with criminal damage. On 6 March 2017, a criminal damage charge was recorded but no conviction was given by the Melbourne Magistrates’ Court: he was instead ordered to participate in a diversion program.[7]

    On 6 September 2015, he was charged with unlawful assault in South Melbourne. Babet pleaded guilty to the charges at the Melbourne Magistrates Court on 22 August 2018. In exchange for Babet’s compliance with a bond/undertaking, the charges were dismissed.[8]”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ralph_Babet

    Another interesting thing is there is no information in the media about the motive or who was the victim of his criminal actions. Who goes out causing criminal damage in Toorak on Christmas Day for no apparent reason?

  13. PageBoi @ #358 Thursday, August 1st, 2024 – 11:30 am

    I did C@t, unfortunately it will come as too little too late for him as he’ll have graduated well before the payments kick in…..

    So then, you would have to acknowledge that he completed his degree under the old Coalition set up, as Labor had a plan to change things for the better but, as per MI’s post, haven’t been able to implement it in time to benefit him.

  14. A senior female member of a regional branch of the Liberal Party has resigned over claims she was told to go on a crash diet and to make way for male candidates.
    In a resignation letter seen by the ABC, Jemma Tribe detailed her treatment to Liberal Party state director Richard Shields.
    Ms Tribe, who has previously sought state and federal preselection and is running as an independent candidate at the NSW local government election, wrote that she was told people thought she was “kind but not strong enough”.
    She also wrote that she was told not to bother speaking to a particular man in the party because “he doesn’t believe women should be in positions of leadership”.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-01/liberal-party-jemma-tribe-quits-crash-diet-claims/104164604

  15. ‘Holdenhillbilly says:
    Thursday, August 1, 2024 at 11:51 am

    A senior female member of a regional branch of the Liberal Party has resigned over claims she was told to go on a crash diet and to make way for male candidates.
    In a resignation letter seen by the ABC, Jemma Tribe detailed her treatment to Liberal Party state director Richard Shields.
    Ms Tribe, who has previously sought state and federal preselection and is running as an independent candidate at the NSW local government election, wrote that she was told people thought she was “kind but not strong enough”.
    She also wrote that she was told not to bother speaking to a particular man in the party because “he doesn’t believe women should be in positions of leadership”.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-01/liberal-party-jemma-tribe-quits-crash-diet-claims/104164604
    ———————
    Something for FUBAR, Badthinker, Lars and Pied Piper to feast on?

  16. First the delayed the HAFF and now they complain that the HAFF has not been implemented yet.
    The people who suffer?
    The homeless, DV victims and Indigenous people.
    The people who gain?
    The Thug and his Toolie.
    Squalid and Sordid.

  17. Albo tells journos journos today that Australians in Lebanon need to skedadle out of there and come home because Beirut Airport may not be open for commercial flights. What a mess. It’s just getting more intractable and disturbing over there.

  18. paul Asays:
    Thursday, August 1, 2024 at 12:32 pm
    More early election speculation, now coming from Jacki Lambie.
    She thinks November is a go’er.
    ========================================

    Why do you believe Jacqui Lambie knows anything on this issue?

    I see you have provided a source now. Though what she say about a November election seems pretty incoherent babble to me.

  19. She would be looking forward to controlling the Senate BOP after the next election. Maybe with Babet thrown in.
    What could possibly go wrong?

  20. Fully agreed with Bob Brown’s plea to Denmark regarding Captain Paul Watson.

    Would be disgraceful if Denmark handed him over to Japan for “offences” committed far outside Japanese waters, interfering with Japanese whaling that was ruled illegal by the ICJ.

    Frankly it is dodgy that Interpol even issued the red notice although they have a recentish history of letting countries issue red notices for politically motivated arrests that wouldn’t have been allowed in the past. Remember when Thailand briefly arrested that Australian footballer who had been a refugee from Bahrain, on the basis of a red notice from Bahrain (only to drop it after Australia made a fuss, in part thanks to the sterling efforts of Craig Foster).

    Denmark should do what the Thais did in that case and drop the arrest.

  21. Butcher @ #360 Thursday, August 1st, 2024 – 11:41 am

    Lars Von Tryer –

    “ Incrementalism works – you mean like it’s 10 months since the haff legislation was passed and not one house has been approved to be built ?

    Utopia is truly a documentary.”

    Mostly Interested –

    “ Well they haven’t caused anyone to kill themselves, so lets put a tick in the ‘not shit’ column shall we?”

    Macquarie University analysed 324 deaths and found the median age at death was 50.7, and that people experiencing homelessness had a mortality rate across age groups that was 80% higher than the general population. So let’s put a tick in ‘shit column’

    I love the use of stats to support a spurious argument as much as the next person. But to infer that if only Labor built more houses homelessness would be solved and the death rate normalized is well, lets just say, ambitious academically.

    So I tell you want, I’ll meet you half way and agree we can keep the tick in the shit column, but lets move it over to the “Butcher cant draft a coherent argument” sheet.

  22. ‘Sandman says:
    Thursday, August 1, 2024 at 12:33 pm

    Albo tells journos journos today that Australians in Lebanon need to skedadle out of there and come home because Beirut Airport may not be open for commercial flights. What a mess. It’s just getting more intractable and disturbing over there.’
    ————————-
    Oz first issued urgent warnings to the then 15,000 Australians in Lebanon to get out in the weeks immediately after Oct 7.

    But it appears that at least some Australians have gone TO Lebanon since.

    And not all of the 15,000 have made use of the nine months to get out of Lebanon.

    I do hope they do not expect the ADF and/or Australian consular officials to risk their lives getting them out should the balloon go up.

  23. The statistical definition of homelessness is close to being practically useless, IMO.

    How do I know?

    Because, according to the definition, I have been ‘homeless’ for extended periods of my life.

    Except I wasn’t homeless at all.

    IMO the statistical definition dilutes what should be happening: interventions highly targeted at getting rough sleepers into dry and warm places where they will also get a decent feed and a decent wash.

  24. ‘Arky says:
    Thursday, August 1, 2024 at 12:44 pm

    @Boer: I don’t think it makes him royalist to ask Princess Mary to use her influence for good.’
    ———————————-
    What influence? The Danish royals are not supposed to involve themselves in politics.
    This is just another Greens stunt.

  25. C@t

    I’ll agree certainly that the placement payments are an improvement, when they kick in in 2025, but they are still below the poverty line payments, and well below minimum wage. As a point of principle I think everyone deserves minimum wage for their labour, because make no mistake students on placement have skills and are providing their labour….. But yes still an improvement

    Although the 2025 implementation is bullshit, the government already knows who the students are through the HECS system and there’s no way it takes 18 months to work through the details with the universities, so the implementation date seems to be more about preserving their surplus tbh

  26. I don’t like to comment too much as I don’t want to take up space that may otherwise be taken up by another Boerwar comment, but it’s clear the HAFF is a bit of a joke, as it was when it was announced. But now it’s even funnier/sad.

  27. Entropysays:
    Thursday, August 1, 2024 at 11:21 am
    Just to clarify, Wong got her Department to issue a correction for her poorly worded statement. Did PM Scott Morrison’s Department do the same for his?
    _____________________
    She fucked up again.
    Forget your whataboutism and just deal with it.

  28. Taylormadesays:
    Thursday, August 1, 2024 at 12:59 pm
    Entropysays:
    Thursday, August 1, 2024 at 11:21 am
    Just to clarify, Wong got her Department to issue a correction for her poorly worded statement. Did PM Scott Morrison’s Department do the same for his?
    _____________________
    She fucked up again.
    Forget your whataboutism and just deal with it.
    ====================================================

    It was OC that was comparing the two issues not me. I was just asking, if like Wong his Department corrected or clarified it when it happened.

    Though to be fair i hadn’t even remembered that ScoMo had done it. I suspect, like ScoMo’s gaffe, Wong’s will be forgotten quite quickly too. Except by the haters.

  29. Former President Donald Trump declined to say whether he thinks Sen. JD Vance of Ohio would be ready to serve as vice president should they win November’s election, with Trump instead saying it doesn’t matter.
    “I’ve always had great respect for him but… historically, the vice president in terms of the election does not have any impact, I mean virtually any impact,” he said Wednesday during a question-and-answer session with Black journalists in Chicago.
    The question was asked after the panel’s hosts brought up what they described as Vance’s numerous “stumbles” and the “controversy” since he was publicly tapped as Trump’s running mate. They also noted the recent assassination attempt on Trump.

  30. Australian swim coach Brett Hawke has been left ‘angry’ after Pan Zhanle’s stunning 100m freestyle world record swim, saying the feat is “not humanly possible”.

  31. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Thursday, August 1, 2024 at 1:17 pm
    Australian swim coach Brett Hawke has been left ‘angry’ after Pan Zhanle’s stunning 100m freestyle world record swim, saying the feat is “not humanly possible”.

    Meh, stop sooking.

  32. The big ticks for Albanese/Wong foreign affairs.

    Did not buckle to the EU in trade negotiations.
    Stood up to China and rescued $20 billion per annum in exports.
    Kept out of any new wars. Australia is war-free for the first time in a quarter of a century.
    Supported Ukraine against Putin.
    Supported the Philippines against Xi’s land and sea grab.
    Kept the lid on communalist hatreds in Australia during the latest bout in the existential struggle between Israel v Iran +.
    Joined Australia back to the international fight against global warming.
    Rescued the Solomons from Xi’s grasp.
    Kept PNG out of Xi’s grasp.
    Maintained friendly relations with Indonesia.

    Compare and contrast with Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison!

  33. A 66yr old mate who cant get a job reluctantly had to go on jobseeker. He's being forced to do on-line "courses" (patronising bs) to meet his "points." He has a masters degree These "courses" are just a scam aren't they, so the so-called job providers get $$? @billshortenmp— Proselytiser (@TheProselytiser) July 31, 2024

    Seriously, it’s shit like this…. ughh !

  34. Was Paul Watson in charge of the people throwing acid at whaling crewmen?
    If so, then he needs to take responsibility in Tokyo, imo.

  35. BW… Labor kept a lid on communalistic hatred? Riiiiight… remind me, how did labor respond to the UNRWA accusations?
    Also “rescued the Solomons from Xi’s grasp” and “Kept PNG out of Xi’s grasp”… you really need to see someone about your hyperfocus on the CCP

  36. Rex Douglassays:
    Thursday, August 1, 2024 at 2:07 pm
    A 66yr old mate who cant get a job reluctantly had to go on jobseeker. He’s being forced to do on-line “courses” (patronising bs) to meet his “points.” He has a masters degree These “courses” are just a scam aren’t they, so the so-called job providers get $$? @billshortenmp— Proselytiser (@TheProselytiser) July 31, 2024

    Seriously, it’s shit like this…. ughh !
    ==============================================

    If someone using a pseudonym on Elon Musk’s X (formerly twitter) says it. How could anyone dispute it, as being anything but fact?

    There are a lot of random posters on here you could reply too. Do we really need to see your reply to a random poster on X though?

  37. Rex Douglassays:
    Thursday, August 1, 2024 at 1:53 pm
    Holdenhillbillysays:
    Thursday, August 1, 2024 at 1:17 pm
    Australian swim coach Brett Hawke has been left ‘angry’ after Pan Zhanle’s stunning 100m freestyle world record swim, saying the feat is “not humanly possible”.

    Meh, stop sooking.
    _____________________
    I did the stats on this earlier – I’d side with Brett Hawke on this one – Pan was over a second faster over the 100m (more than 2% quicker) than the rest of the field who were all within half a second of each other…

  38. I notice that Bandt has gone a bit quieter now that a Greens electoral office was defaced. Maybe, even if a bit late, he realizes that stoking hatreds is a bad idea.

    But, then again, maybe it was the horror when the Greens realized that all those votes they were astroturfing were going to another party altogether.

    Who really knows?

  39. It is of course easy to be self righteous living on an indexed defined benefit pension breathing in the rare fragrances of Manuka.

  40. Entropy @ #395 Thursday, August 1st, 2024 – 2:17 pm

    Rex Douglassays:
    Thursday, August 1, 2024 at 2:07 pm
    A 66yr old mate who cant get a job reluctantly had to go on jobseeker. He’s being forced to do on-line “courses” (patronising bs) to meet his “points.” He has a masters degree These “courses” are just a scam aren’t they, so the so-called job providers get $$? @billshortenmp— Proselytiser (@TheProselytiser) July 31, 2024

    Seriously, it’s shit like this…. ughh !
    ==============================================

    If someone using a pseudonym on Elon Musk’s X (formerly twitter) says it. How could anyone dispute as being anything but fact?

    The courses and most of the crap the agencies throw at jobseekers can be avoided by doing volunteer work at that age.

  41. Do we really think that just one individual out of 10,500 competitors in the Paris Games might have ingested some chemical propellants?

    horreur!

  42. Surely even the Greens can see what Dutton is doing with his anti-semitism lying lines?
    Are they completely incapable of looking into a mirror?

  43. The courses and most of the crap the agencies throw at jobseekers can be avoided by doing volunteer work at that age.
    _________
    And if they are younger they can do Work for the Dole which the current government has lovingly kept in place.

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