US presidential election minus 14 weeks

The first Harris-versus-Trump forecast model to open for business suggests a significant but by no means decisive advantage to Trump.

With The Conversation keeping this site’s regular US correspondent busy, a quick post of my own on the US election campaign, and a forum for the discussion thereof. The big news from my perspective is that, after all the noteworthy forecasters closed for refurbishment following Joe Biden’s withdrawal, Nate Silver has lifted the lid on his Harris-versus-Trump model.

The model launches with a 61.3% win probability for Trump and 38.1% for Harris, the balance presumably reflecting the possibility that one candidate or the other doesn’t survive until November. These numbers suggest a model with a judiciously wide zone of uncertainty around projections that superficially look very encouraging for Trump. Silver’s model records an essentially dead head on the national popular vote, and doesn’t credit Harris with a better than even chance unless she lands at least two points clear. State-level projections find Trump more likely than not to flip Wisconsin (just), Michigan and Pennsylvania (a little further ahead), Nevada (a little further again) and Arizona and Georgia (both about as strong for Trump as North Carolina, which he carried in 2020).

The Economist’s model is still on ice, but its page explaining its methodology is well worth reading. Its charts comparing the predictiveness of its poll-based and “fundamentals” models going back to 1948 are particularly interesting in finding that the latter have the superior record – certainly at predicting the result 150 days out, but even unto election day itself. However, one of its parameters does not seem to me to be quite as fundamental as all that, being a poll-based measure of presidential approval.

The question of polls-versus-fundamentals was the focus of a critique by Nate Silver of the new model developed by FiveThirtyEight, the enterprise formerly synonymous with Silver but now bought out, LucasFilm style, by Disney. Its new incarnation is overseen by G. Elliott Morris, of whom Silver says he is “not a fan”. This was producing remarkably bullish results for Biden up until it was put on ice, which evidently wasn’t persuading too many senior Democrats. As well as criticising a lack of transparency, Silver observes that the model seems to be overwhelmingly favouring fundamentals, despite its supporting data suggesting that fundamentals should in fact be viewed as less predictive than polls. Its thesis, Silver argues, is that – as of July 21 – “Joe Biden is a reasonably clear favorite to win the popular vote because he’s an incumbent, and it’s too early to really update that assumption based on the polling or anything else”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,063 comments on “US presidential election minus 14 weeks”

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  1. Centre @ #502 Friday, August 2nd, 2024 – 7:31 pm

    Trump lost the last election fair and square. Given the way he conducted himself after the result of that election, how in the hell are swinging voters going to be drawn to him now?

    We can now see it all clearly since Biden withdrew!

    Who thinks Trump will concede defeat this time?

    No freaking way lol

    He doesn’t have the advantage of Incumbency this time though and thus a powerful platform from which to launch his challenge.

  2. I’m leaning toward Tim Walz as Kamala Harris’ best shot at the VP pick. I just learned today that he is ex-military as well. Not only that but someone made the case that even though Minnesota isn’t a swing state it is in the Mid West and his folksy but savvy way of speaking to people would go over well to that demographic.

  4. C@tmommasays:
    Friday, August 2, 2024 at 9:42 pm
    I’m leaning toward Tim Walz as Kamala Harris’ best shot at the VP pick. I just learned today that he is ex-military as well. Not only that but someone made the case that even though Minnesota isn’t a swing state it is in the Mid West and his folksy but savvy way of speaking to people would go over well to that demographic.
    ========================================

    Looks a pretty safe choice if his Wikipedia page is anything to go by.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Walz

  5. Bloomberg/Morning Consult

    Interesting they did the Harris-Trump match-up in battleground states May 11-13 so fairly recently, net changes for Harris vs. Trump from July 24-26 polls (followed by who leads in latest poll):

    + 14% Michigan – Harris 11%
    + 11% Arizona – Harris 2%
    + 10% Wisconsin – Harris 2%
    + 8% N Carolina – Trump 2%
    + 8% Georgia – Tie
    + 5% Nevada – Harris 2%
    + 3% Pennsylvania – Trump 4%

  6. BTSayssays:
    Friday, August 2, 2024 at 9:57 pm
    Minnesota is pretty much a swing state now.
    ===============================================

    Biden won it 52.40% to Trump 45.28% in 2020. That’s a fair margin.

  7. Entropy @ #508 Friday, August 2nd, 2024 – 10:03 pm

    C@tmommasays:
    Friday, August 2, 2024 at 9:42 pm
    I’m leaning toward Tim Walz as Kamala Harris’ best shot at the VP pick. I just learned today that he is ex-military as well. Not only that but someone made the case that even though Minnesota isn’t a swing state it is in the Mid West and his folksy but savvy way of speaking to people would go over well to that demographic.
    ========================================

    Looks a pretty safe choice if his Wikipedia page is anything to go by.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Walz

    So he could safely be away from his home state to campaign in the Rust Belt battleground swing states where I think he would be pretty effective.

  8. Entropy

    Yes, fair enough, that’s ‘Texas sort of margin’ and I doubt Minnesota is seriously in play this time. Will probably stay single digit margin though, and stay in play for the foreseeable future.

    If it is in play this time after all it probably means Harris is losing badly, put it that way.

  9. Big investigative journalism story in the Washington Post about a $10 million dollar payment to Trump from Al Sisi of Egypt and the political appointees who killed the investigation into it.
    I’ll share the story and bring it out from behind the paywall in the Dawn Patrol tomorrow.

  10. I can’t make up my mind whether New Hampshire and Virginia are also possibles for Trump, though think that’s unlikely since Biden stepped down.

    Trump might get his single elector in Maine. Is the border state of New Mexico susceptible to swing Trump’s way this time?

    Would also be intrigued to see polling for New Jersey with the turmoil that’s been engulfing Dems in the state, though I really don’t imagine it’s actually in play for the GOP.

    Obviously Harris is playing defence, but where else could Harris move into the blue column? Anywhere that’s even on the radar apart from North Carolina? Can’t think of anywhere else apart from perhaps single electors in the relevant 2-3 states.
    Think Alaska is disproportionately Trump-favourable for some reason, otherwise on paper this should be competitive for Dems in a good year.

  11. BTSayssays:
    Friday, August 2, 2024 at 10:23 pm
    Entropy

    Yes, fair enough, that’s ‘Texas sort of margin’ and I doubt Minnesota is seriously in play this time. Will probably stay single digit margin though, and stay in play for the foreseeable future.

    If it is in play this time after all it probably means Harris is losing badly, put it that way.
    ==========================================

    If in play they would be sandbagging and not heading for a win. On that we do agree.

  14. Vice President Harris secured a majority of the pledged delegates to the 2024 Democratic National Convention, Democratic Party officials announced Friday, officially making her the party’s presidential nominee and concluding an unprecedented process after the former Democratic standard-bearer dropped out less than two weeks ago.

    The more than 4,000 convention delegates had until Monday to submit their ballots, but no other candidate qualified to challenge Harris, making her selection all but certain. Still, the formal nomination ascent of the first woman of color to lead a presidential ticket marks a milestone for a nation long riven by racial and gender issues.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/02/harris-becomes-democratic-nominee/

  16. The Repugnantlians dwell at the bottom of the cess pit.
    The racist, xenophobic and misogynistic attacks upon Kamala Harris, were unfortunately, going to come.
    Similar to the ‘Crooked Hilary’ and ‘Sleepy Joe’ branding.
    Nominee Harris, has demonstrated that she will debate policy, rather than descending into the Repugantlian gutter.
    However, I do endorse her emphasise, when speaking about her opponent, as Don-OLD.

  19. Harris campaign raises $310M in July—with no sign of momentum slowing

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/2/2260079/-Harris-campaign-raises-310M-in-July-with-no-sign-of-momentum-slowing?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_8&pm_medium=web

    “On Friday, Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign announced it raised an astounding $310 million dollars in July. While that figure includes money raised by President Joe Biden’s campaign before he ended his reelection campaign on July 21, their combined fundraising has obliterated Donald Trump’s, coming in at over twice the $138.7 million raised by the Trump campaign during the same month. The Associated Press reports that the Harris campaign now has $377 million in cash on hand, which the campaign says is “the most for any presidential candidate at this point in the cycle”—and $50 million more than Trump”

  21. ”
    Late Risersays:
    Saturday, August 3, 2024 at 8:10 am
    bc @ #517 Saturday, August 3rd, 2024 – 2:20 am

    Desi Lydic Foxsplains Accusations that Republicans are “Weird” | The Daily Show: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qbmDyqKOa0o

    Hah! “Weird” hit home. It’ll hang around for a while until fading into a distracting smell, hovering in the air whenever they open their mouths. I love it. Thanks for linking.
    ”

    It is quite obvious that “Weird” hit home when Trump called a RW Radio station and complained about it.
    And Fox opinionaters going into over drive was another sign.
    It is bothering them. Really, really bothering and irritating them.

    By doing that they are putting it in people’s minds by associating “weird” with Trump and Vance.

  22. It’s great that Harris has some excellent options to choose from. All compliment her, ticking some unchecked boxes in various ways without being too different.

    Buttigieg, Walz and Kelly add military background. Beshear and Buttigieg add youth. Shapiro and Walz and Buttigieg add Midwest. Beshear and Kelly will help in the sunbelt. Some with business others with unions.

    There’s plenty of executive experience in there and some great communicators.

    Can she pick them all?

    I am a tad concerned at having two lawyers on the ticket. It will be targeted and be a noticeable difference in the two tickets. So I’d lean away from Shapiro (who has the lawyer look far more than Beshear). Yet, PA is a must win.

    Yikes.

    Hurry up, chose please. Be brave. Be bold. Go for chemistry, not reason.

  24. From the other thread.

    Holdenhillbilly @ #747 Saturday, August 3rd, 2024 – 8:44 am

    Former President Donald Trump’s newest excuse for why he won’t debate Vice President Kamala Harris just doesn’t have the numbers to back it up.
    During an interview on Fox Business Friday morning, host Maria Bartiromo asked Trump if he would consider going head-to-head with Harris.
    “Well, I want to. And we’re leading in the polls, it seems, by quite a bit, still. She’s better than he is, but ultimately I think she’ll be worse than him,” Trump said, referring to President Joe Biden.
    “I mean, right now I say, why should I do a debate?” Trump said. “I’m leading in the polls. And, everybody knows her, everybody knows me.”

    He’s left himself two options for when the polls turn on him.
    #1 Lie and deny.
    #2 Debate her.

    I’m guessing option #1 is favoured. And in the meantime, he gets a boost from having thrown Biden out of the ring.

  25. I missed the update to 538 last night: https://abcnews.go.com/538/harris-trump-tied-538s-new-polling-averages/story?id=112494481

    Harris +1.5. “That 1.5-percentage-point lead is within our average’s uncertainty interval, which you can think of as a sort of margin of error for our polling averages. We also have new Harris versus Trump polling averages for the key swing states of Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the races there are within the uncertainty interval as well. (We will add polling averages for additional states as soon as we get enough polls in them.*)”

  26. This one is for Wat Tyler, by JVL from The Bulwark, also a wrestling fan 🙂

    I take a different view of Trump’s performance yesterday than the Morning Shots boys did. I don’t think it was a meltdown. I believe it was a planned set-piece.

    It was what they refer to in wrestling as “cheap heat.” And it was smart.

    We talked about the wrestling concept of heat earlier this week.

    Trump’s view of politics is that nothing can be accomplished without dominating cultural attention. It does not matter if people love you or hate you—you want them fixated on you. From there, you can figure out the angles. (And let the Electoral College do its work.)

    Yes, Trump set himself on fire yesterday. But this self-immolation wasn’t an accident and it wasn’t crazy. It was exactly what he wanted.

    For the 11-day span from Joe Biden stepping aside to yesterday, Donald Trump was invisible. Kamala Harris dominated the country’s attention and sparked the emergence of a genuine cultural movement.

    Trump needed to get back on the screen in order to compete with her in the attention economy.

    In the pre-Trump days, a Republican candidate might have attempted to get attention by giving a big speech about foreign policy, or coming out with a new campaign theme.

    Instead, Trump went in front of a black audience and said,

    I’ve known her a long time . . . and she was always of Indian heritage. And she was only promoting Indian heritage. I didn’t know she was black. Until a number of years ago when she happened to turn black.

    This is straight out of the Ric Flair playbook. So much so that it crosses the line into “cheap heat.”

    What is “cheap heat”? It’s when a wrestling heel says or does something in an obvious attempt to antagonize the audience and make them hate him.

    For instance, you stand in the middle of the ring in Cleveland and talk about how the Browns suck. Or you call the city a dump.

    Wikipedia notes that racial attacks are a traditional form of cheap heat:

    [A]nother common practice of villains to draw cheap heat involves using racial and ethnic slurs to offend the collective sensibility of wrestling fans. For example, in 1972, when the American Indian Movement was gaining momentum, Baron von Raschke was known to refer to Native American WWA World Heavyweight Champion Billy Red Cloud as a “dirty low down Injun” as a means of drawing cheap heat.

    Why is this kind of heat “cheap”? Because other wrestlers recognize that it doesn’t take any skill or inspiration to draw. Literally anyone can do it.

    Here’s the great Jim Cornett explaining why people in the industry disdain cheap heat: “If you drop your pants and shit on the guy in the front row, people are gonna be up in arms about it. But that would be anybody. It doesn’t have to be you doing it.”

    But Donald Trump doesn’t care about his artistic merit scores and attention has an absolute-value sign around it.

    Saying Harris isn’t really black is a gagillion times more effective at getting attention than rolling out some policy paper.

    So yes, Trump may be relying on cheap heat, but he remains an innovator in American politics.

    https://www.thebulwark.com/p/donald-trumps-cheap-heat

  27. Keep in mind there are some crappy (lowly rated) polls in the aggregates atm. And they are all favouring Trump. Older polls too will be in the aggregation and they also favour trump.

    So it depends on how the aggregators weigh them as to where their figure lands.

    Man, this new 538 site is hard to work out. The old system was great. They had the lean correction and the weight all laid out. Why change?

    Mind you, decision desk at The Hill seems even less forthcoming.

  28. JD Vance has been throwing shade on Josh Shapiro, saying “ he sounds like me trying to do a bad impression of Obama”..

    Which was put to Shapiro

    Reporter: Vance compared you to a really bad impression of Obama

    Shapiro: Obama was probably our most gifted orator of my time, so that’s kind of a weird insult. I’ll say this about Vance: it’s really hard being honest with the American people when you’re not being honest with yourself. He is the most inorganic candidate I think I have ever seen. He doesn’t know what he believes, and that is why it is impossible for him to articulate a coherent message —because he doesn’t believe it.

  29. Harris is binging back the Obama campaign crew, these are professionals .. I don’t know if Trump has a ‘ground game’ whatsoever, as he just relies on his ‘star quality’ to get the turnout.

    David Plouffe, a top strategist on both of Obama’s presidential campaigns, joins Harris as senior adviser for strategy and the states focused on winning the electoral college. Stephanie Cutter, the deputy campaign manager for Obama’s reelection who has been working in recent months with Harris, is the new senior adviser for strategy messaging. Mitch Stewart, a grass-roots organizing strategist behind both Obama wins, will become the senior adviser for battleground states. David Binder, who led Obama’s public opinion research operation and previously worked for Harris, will expand his role on the Harris campaign to lead the opinion research operation.

    All of the new hires will report to campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon, another veteran of Obama’s two campaigns. She managed Biden’s 2020 campaign and built his 2024 operation from the White House before moving to Wilmington, Del., this year. Harris took control of Biden’s campaign as soon as Biden announced he would not seek reelection, an operation consisting of more than 1,300 employees and more than 130 offices. She asked O’Malley Dillon to remain in charge.

    In addition to increasing Binder’s role, the Harris campaign is also bringing on Terrance Woodbury of HIT Strategies, a specialist in Black voter opinion research. Other pollsters who were working for Biden will continue in their roles. Michael Tyler will continue as campaign communications director, and deputy campaign manager Rob Flaherty will continue to oversee digital advertising, social media and grass-roots fundraising.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/02/kamala-harris-hires-new-senior-strategists-campaign-expands-portfolio-others/

  30. David Plouffe, before he joins the Harris team, is giving up his consultant role with TikTok.

    I would imagine some of what he learnt there will come with him..

  31. Sprocket says
    Shapiro: Obama was probably our most gifted orator of my time, so that’s kind of a weird insult.

    Looks like ‘weird’ is going to pop up a lot from now on.

  34. Minnesota is one of those states that is always going to be a swing state but it is never happened. The rural areas are a bit like Iowa but the Twin cities are much bigger as a percentage of the population than other states in that area of the mid-west like Wisconsin.
    Plus the north near Duluth was heavily unionised with mining and shipping, and that has left a progressive legacy.
    Rochester is home of the Mayo clinic, so it is highly educated…..
    I just can’t see it flipping.

  35. But if you do listen to Shapiro and didn’t know it was him, you could easily mistake it for Obama. They just have the same cadence and accent. It is almost uncanny how similar they do sound; perhaps Obama is a tad deeper at times.

  36. Minnesota one of the few States where Labor Parties took hold.
    Probably due to being settled by Scandinavians.
    I say this Walz guy will be a disaster, looks like a killer, everything black and white for him.
    But, is he the best they can find of the ones prepared to go down in flames with Team Harris?
    I concur with Willie Brown, it was Whitmer for the win, anyone else a bust.

  37. JD Vance has been throwing shade on Josh Shapiro, saying “ he sounds like me trying to do a bad impression of Obama”..

    A Greens bovver boy was using that line here not that long ago.

  39. Badthinkersays:
    Saturday, August 3, 2024 at 11:08 am
    Minnesota one of the few States where Labor Parties took hold.
    Probably due to being settled by Scandinavians.
    I say this Walz guy will be a disaster, looks like a killer, everything black and white for him.
    But, is he the best they can find of the ones prepared to go down in flames with Team Harris?
    I concur with Willie Brown, it was Whitmer for the win, anyone else a bust.
    ======================================================

    I’m now sold on Walz being the best VP candidate now. With Trump supporters already dissing him. He is the one they are obviously afraid of.

    Quote: ‘Do not do what you want to do, but what you judge your enemy least wants you to do’

  42. I’ll be very surprised if Harris’s VP pick is anyone but Shapiro. She needs those PA electoral college votes if she’s going to have a realistic chance at winning.

  43. Team Katich says:
    Saturday, August 3, 2024 at 9:53 am
    Keep in mind there are some crappy (lowly rated) polls in the aggregates atm. And they are all favouring Trump. Older polls too will be in the aggregation and they also favour trump.

    So it depends on how the aggregators weigh them as to where their figure lands.

    Man, this new 538 site is hard to work out. The old system was great. They had the lean correction and the weight all laid out. Why change?

    Mind you, decision desk at The Hill seems even less forthcoming.

    __________

    538 to their credit only are including polls post Biden dropping out. I prefer the previous format as well.

  46. I would be willing to bet a substantial sum of money that there is no way whatsoever Trump will ever drop out from the race.
    ——————————————–
    I think so too. Maybe the Mooch is just having some fun.

  47. As for Minnesota and comparisons to Iowa and swing states…. Minnesota doesnt have a Minnesota Democratic Party, they have the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party. You might think that’s just cute, but they are serious about it and it works. Well, at least it has held back the tide of GOP domination in rural areas to some degree. This is interesting….
    https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/05/rural-dems-biden-debate-fallout-00166658

  49. So, it turns out that a VP candidacy hasn’t actually been considered to be a significant factor in a presidential ticket having managed to carry that candidate’s state since 1960.

    Why, exactly, are people treating this like the primary factor in selecting a VP candidate on a site that’s supposed to be about data?

    I worry that Harris is interested in Shapiro for much the same reasons Clinton chose Kaine (essentially, a boring, conservative-leaning dude she thought would be a good governing partner, instead of someone who would be useful in supplementing her weaknesses), and I fear it risks repeating history.

    Kaine, too, didn’t excite anyone, didn’t sway anyone who had doubts about Clinton (whatever their politics), had views that were anathema to a solid chunk of the party, and was from a swing state that Clinton would have carried anyway.

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