US presidential election minus 14 weeks

The first Harris-versus-Trump forecast model to open for business suggests a significant but by no means decisive advantage to Trump.

With The Conversation keeping this site’s regular US correspondent busy, a quick post of my own on the US election campaign, and a forum for the discussion thereof. The big news from my perspective is that, after all the noteworthy forecasters closed for refurbishment following Joe Biden’s withdrawal, Nate Silver has lifted the lid on his Harris-versus-Trump model.

The model launches with a 61.3% win probability for Trump and 38.1% for Harris, the balance presumably reflecting the possibility that one candidate or the other doesn’t survive until November. These numbers suggest a model with a judiciously wide zone of uncertainty around projections that superficially look very encouraging for Trump. Silver’s model records an essentially dead head on the national popular vote, and doesn’t credit Harris with a better than even chance unless she lands at least two points clear. State-level projections find Trump more likely than not to flip Wisconsin (just), Michigan and Pennsylvania (a little further ahead), Nevada (a little further again) and Arizona and Georgia (both about as strong for Trump as North Carolina, which he carried in 2020).

The Economist’s model is still on ice, but its page explaining its methodology is well worth reading. Its charts comparing the predictiveness of its poll-based and “fundamentals” models going back to 1948 are particularly interesting in finding that the latter have the superior record – certainly at predicting the result 150 days out, but even unto election day itself. However, one of its parameters does not seem to me to be quite as fundamental as all that, being a poll-based measure of presidential approval.

The question of polls-versus-fundamentals was the focus of a critique by Nate Silver of the new model developed by FiveThirtyEight, the enterprise formerly synonymous with Silver but now bought out, LucasFilm style, by Disney. Its new incarnation is overseen by G. Elliott Morris, of whom Silver says he is “not a fan”. This was producing remarkably bullish results for Biden up until it was put on ice, which evidently wasn’t persuading too many senior Democrats. As well as criticising a lack of transparency, Silver observes that the model seems to be overwhelmingly favouring fundamentals, despite its supporting data suggesting that fundamentals should in fact be viewed as less predictive than polls. Its thesis, Silver argues, is that – as of July 21 – “Joe Biden is a reasonably clear favorite to win the popular vote because he’s an incumbent, and it’s too early to really update that assumption based on the polling or anything else”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,063 comments on “US presidential election minus 14 weeks”

Comments Page 13 of 22
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  3. 3) The whole idea that Harris changes her racial identity as she sees fit does feed into a narrative that she’s an opportunist who has never earned her success and lacks any real skill. Just like the “DEI” thing and the “She slept her way to her early career success” stuff. The whole “turn their biggest strength into their biggest weakness” strategy. Right now, its execution is a bit weak but that doesn’t mean there isn’t potential for the attack to sharpen and become effective.

    Yes, it’s not about whether she does any of that or not but whether people come to believe that she does, and Trump has fine form in making people believe make-believe.

  4. Look, I’m pretty optimistic about Harris’s chances and think most of the attacks against her are weak and probably will remain limp but I would be neglectful if I didn’t at least entertain how they could sting. It doesn’t matter if they’re true or not, it’s what voters think is true (or might be true.)

    And don’t underestimate the number of Americans who genuinely believe being black somehow gives you a leg-up in life (remember: the myth that colleges admit a certain number of black people for free, closing the door on the opportunity for others is still quite popular.)

  5. I just listened to an interesting chat between Will Saletan and AB Stoddard and they think that Pete Buttigieg is actually in with a shot for the VP pick, even though he is gay. Their thesis was that, if America is going to pick a woman of colour then they won’t be fussed to include a highly qualified gay guy either who has been in front of them for 3 years already as Transportation Secretary and hasn’t scared the horses. Also, he is good in areas that Kamala Harris isn’t, such as TV interviews. It’s an interesting theory, I’ll give it that.

  6. Wat Tyler @ #603 Saturday, August 3rd, 2024 – 7:33 pm

    Confessions @ #600 Saturday, August 3rd, 2024 – 7:00 pm

    Except that this isn’t true,.

    Swiftboating wasn’t true either.

    But this is completely different. We’re talking about a person’s individual cultural identity, not their career identity.

    Yes, Trump’s comments about Harris are going to play well with the voters he already had. ‘Haw haw, she slept her way to the top’ is bog standard MAGA red meat. But it isn’t going to appeal to the voters Team Trump needs to win.

  7. I don’t think Buttigieg’s sexuality is a liability for him TBH. Like sure, there are probably some hard religious voters who think that’s disqualifying but they’re not gettable for Democrats. Gays are a lot more tolerable to middle America, because lots of people nowadays have queer family members, colleagues and friends, so it’s not as alien to them. Also, Buttigieg is extremely straight-coded (there’s actually a phenomenon where queer people growing up in conservative areas often go out of their way to be as straight-laced, overachieving and plain as possible as not to be the freaky pariah, partly out of a sense of internalised homophobia growing up and partly to not draw a target on their backs.)

  8. Wat Tyler @ #607 Saturday, August 3rd, 2024 – 7:53 pm

    Also, Buttigieg is extremely straight-coded (there’s actually a phenomenon where queer people growing up in conservative areas often go out of their way to be as straight-laced, overachieving and plain as possible as not to be the freaky pariah, partly out of a sense of internalised homophobia growing up and partly to not draw a target on their backs.)

    I can allude to that, growing up gay in Townsville in the 2000’s was not fun. I saw what they did to other teenage boys that didn’t pass off as straight. Just monstrous.

  9. Wat Tyler says:
    Saturday, August 3, 2024 at 7:20 pm
    Finally, I see mentions of Minnesota as a swing state. Despite its historic record as a blue state (since FDR became the Democratic candidate in 1932, the state has only gone Republican in a Presidential election three times: twice for Eisenhower and once for Nixon in his 1972 landslide), it’s not that solidly blue and has become tantalisingly close to flipping red in the past. Notably, it almost fell alongside the other 49 states in Reagan’s 1984 landslide – only (barely) remaining blue because the Democratic candidate, Walter Mondale, was a native son. More recently and more pertinently, it almost fell to Trump in 2016 and it was looking shaky for Biden just before he dropped out.

    However, I wouldn’t call Minnesota a “tipping point” state. I feel Minnesota is one of those states that can fall to Trump but, if that’s happening, Trump most definitely has 270+ votes elsewhere and therefore they are superfluous (except to give him a bigger margin to gloat about and maybe give some coattails to Republicans in that state to help with lower ticket races.) I think the current Republican equivalent of Minnesota is probably Florida. In theory, it’s gettable and has been close recently but, if Harris is winning Florida, she already has the 270+ elsewhere.

    __________

    Good post.

  10. I should just warn Bludgers, and I’m guilty I admit, we shouldn’t jump the gun about Kamala’s prospects in the election.

    The Dow Jones was decimated last Friday losing 600 points with some economists tipping a likely recession in the US?

    If voters in the US compare their living standards under Biden with Trump – it’s back to game on seriously!

  11. B. S. Fairman says Saturday, August 3, 2024 at 6:33 pm

    Absolutely Biden should have been a candidate in 2016. Because the Democratic Primaries lack his presence, Hillary looked to be the unbeatable candidate which kept almost all other democrats out. Only Sanders and Martin O’Malley really contested it (and O’Malley was basically forgotten by everyone).
    </blockquote)
    Martin O'Malley who? I literally can't recall him (probably proving your point).

  15. Centre @ #612 Saturday, August 3rd, 2024 – 8:41 pm

    LOL I just read on the previous page that Trump is willing to debate Harris at FOX News on 9the Sept.

    Kamala MUST agree!

    No she MUST not. Trump will not agree to the ABC debate for a bs reason, so why should she agree to a Fox debate? He’s obviously trying to stack the deck in his favour. THAT’S how weak he is.

  16. William Bowe:

    Saturday, August 3, 2024 at 9:04 pm

    [‘I try hard not to be impressed by campaign ads for the side I’m already on, but that is rather good.’]

    Yes, and I don’t think Harris would object to it. Stuff the high road.

  17. The thing to remember about picking Buttiegieg is the enthusiasm factor and the automatic focus on the Supreme Court as highlighting another group at risk of losing hard won rights. Harris seems to like his fundraising abilities and has worked with him in Cabinet. In my mind he was always ahead of Mark Kelly because of no cost of a Senate seat.

    Add in the recognition factor (think Rudd’s 07 campaign) from being regularly on Fox being listened to by Independent voters he has to be high on the list just because of that familiarity.

  19. It has been reported that JB Pritzker is still in the VP Running Mate mix.

    Also, a fascinating discussion I just listened to stated that another consideration that Kamala Harris is mulling over is which Lieutenant Governor will take over in the state of the Governor she may choose. For example, the Lt Governor of Minnesota, Peggy Flanagan, is the first Native American Lt Governor and would become the first Native American Governor if Tim Walz is chosen. Similarly, if Josh Shapiro is chosen, his Lt Governor is Austin Davis, the first Black Lt Governor in Pennsylvania history. Kamala Harris wants to raise these people up to positions of greater political prominence, as she has been.

  21. https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/07/31/us-presidential-election-minus-14-weeks/comment-page-12/#comment-4341547

    I see the penny has dropped with you, Wat.

    Seriously, I’ve observed Trump for years and my feeling is that this incident at the NABJ isn’t actually a net negative for Trump’s polling, probably the opposite especially if you look at the long game.

    Whatever loss of support he gets from those who are offended by it, if it is a net loss taken by itself (it may be, but I’m not sure) is more than compensated by the successful way he broke the news cycle relentlessly focusing on Harris and her apparent ongoing momentum.

    It’s been his playbook for a decade and is still misunderstood by the MSM and most commentators.

  22. Harris is sticking to September 10 for the debate.

    Kamala Harris@KamalaHarris
    ·
    4h
    It’s interesting how “any time, any place” becomes “one specific time, one specific safe space.”

    I’ll be there on September 10th, like he agreed to. I hope to see him there.

  23. Kamala Harris should agree to Trump’s suggestion that she debate him on Fox News.

    After all, the first debate was on CNN, hardly a network friendly to Trump. In the interest of fairness the following debate should be on a right leaning network.

    You don’t play all state of origin matches in Sydney just because Queensland won the first game.

  26. It’s been his playbook for a decade and is still misunderstood by the MSM and most commentators.

    Which is why JVL of The Bulwark saw through it to see clearly what Trump was up to, and I posted about it yesterday morning 😐

  28. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/2/2260280/-I-m-obsessed-with-Tim-Walz-Parkland-s-David-Hogg-on-Kamala-Harris-VP-Selection?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

    “He has not only won over five times one of the hardest congressional districts in the country that he won in rural Minnesota over and over and over again, even in 2010, he has also been an excellent governor. One of the most successful so far this century in terms of Democratic governors. Ultimately, you know, if you want the blue wall, he is a football coach that made his high school state champions. He was a unionized agricultural worker, a teacher, and a veteran. Tim Walz is the blue wall. And he knows how to communicate and he has the experience on the Hill to advance legislation. And that’s why I would love to see him there.”

  29. When Trump chose Vance as his running mate he thought he was home & hosed to return to the WH. But by failing to conduct due diligence, Vance has been the subject of intense ridicule for past statements & conduct, with the highest disapproval for some time. Harris, on the other hand, has been forensic in her search for the most suitable candidate. Shapiro is still the front-runner but there’s renewed interest in Walz. I still think it will be Shapiro.

    [‘As Kamala Harris closes in on her selection of a running mate this weekend, a renewed focus is being placed on Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, people familiar with the search told CNN, even as the vice president continues to weigh whether Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro would help deliver a Democratic victory in his critical battleground state.

    Harris is conducting face-to-face interviews with the final contenders, two sources said, with Walz poised to meet with her on Sunday.

    In the final days of the accelerated vice presidential search, after teams of lawyers finished their exhaustive vetting work and preliminary interviews with contenders, Harris was most concerned with what one senior Democrat close to the process described as three Cs: “competence, chemistry and core values.”

    Harris was weighing the decision with her husband, Doug Emhoff, and a small circle of confidants. Former Attorney General Eric Holder, along with Harris’ brother-in-law Tony West, were central advisers throughout the process. West served as a top lieutenant to Holder at the Department of Justice in the Obama administration.

    Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly were also said to still be under consideration, people familiar with the process said, with Harris intent on not making her final decision known this weekend or too far in advance of her Tuesday night rally with her running mate in Philadelphia.

    Harris was expected to meet with her vetting team Saturday for a series of in-depth presentations on each of the finalists, according to a source familiar with the process. Each briefing was expected to last about 60 to 90 minutes.

    According to multiple sources, the presentations Saturday were expected to reduce the number of candidates whom Harris would invite for final interviews Sunday.

    Harris’ top consideration is electability, sources familiar with her thinking told CNN.

    “She will be looking at what does a person bring to a ticket? Will it help in battleground states? And will it balance out the ticket?” one source said.

    “And she will ask questions. She will press and press — which is her (modus operandi).”] – CNN

  30. An interesting observation in another DKos article, stating that the Harris campaign VP vetting team are also looking for a candidate:

    Beyond whom Harris gets along with on a personal level, two sources familiar with how Harris is approaching her decision say her top consideration is electability – how and where a vice presidential candidate will help with independents and swing voters, especially in battleground states. And, the sources add, they don’t want someone who will be a distraction.

    https://www.dailykos.com/story/2024/8/2/2260117/-VP-Choice-Down-to-Six-Candidates-with-Poll

    That might count Shapiro out.

  37. Mundosays:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 10:34 am
    Harris will go with a jew for VP.
    Shapiro all the way.

    That would be fine if he would call out the Netanyahu Govt for what it is.

  38. Harris should certainly should not change the conditions of the agreed debate at the ABC on the 10th September. Even though Don the Old says he is chickening out. I guess, if Harris wants to look to be kind to a gutless wonder. She could offer to do a second debates at another time at Fox. Though whether or not you should concede any ground to whingers is debatable.

    “Donald Trump says he is pulling out of a scheduled September debate with Vice President Kamala Harris on US broadcaster ABC and wants them to face off on Fox News, making it increasingly unlikely that the candidates will confront each other on stage before the November election.

    In a series of Truth Social posts late Friday, the Republican nominee and former president said his agreement to a September 10 debate on ABC “has been terminated” because he will no longer face Democratic President Joe Biden,”

    https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/trump-pulls-out-of-debate-with-harris-wants-them-to-face-off-on-fox-news-instead-20240804-p5jz9o.html

    Lyrics:
    “Brave Sir Donald ran away.
    (“No!”)
    Bravely ran away away.
    (“I didn’t!”)
    When danger reared it’s ugly head,
    He bravely turned his tail and fled.
    (“I never!”)
    Yes, brave Sir Donald turned about
    And gallantly he chickened out.
    (“You’re lying!”)
    Swiftly taking to his feet,
    He beat a very brave retreat.
    Bravest of the brave, Sir Donald!”

  39. Well, I found these comments from Shapiro.

    But some have argued that Shapiro’s views and policies on the conflict are about the same as most of the other choices.

    Shapiro has been sharply critical of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, calling him “one of the worst leaders of all time” and an obstacle to a two-state solution. He told The Washington Post the country “can’t ignore the death and destruction” in Gaza.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4808478-josh-shapiro-israel-gaza-kamala-harris/

    He’s right about Netanyahu.

  40. Thanks Entropy.

    In a series of Truth Social posts late Friday, the Republican nominee and former president said his agreement to a September 10 debate on ABC “has been terminated” because he will no longer face Democratic President Joe Biden,”

    No matter how you spin this, it always comes out as “T**** is afraid of facing Kamala Harris.”

    Someone else on PB (sorry, I forget who) has already said that a good response from Harris would be to suggest a third debate, after the agreed upon debate on Sept 10. Reminding people that T**** is afraid using the idea that he’s backing away from “any time, anywhere” to “special time, safe place” was just a good first step.

    I hope Harris to continues on the offensive. And because T****’s scheduled sentencing date is also in the mix, Sept 18, a cheeky suggestion might be to suggest that date for the 3rd debate. Just to see what he does. (Beyond whine and repeat his persecution complex, that is.)

  41. I reckon Harris had two options. Ignore being told where and when to debate by bully Trump and insist on continuing the existing framework or begin good faith negotiations to reset remaining debates or

    Call his bluff straightaway, agree to his date and place but insist the format and the moderator selection be her decision.

    IMO, she should have nothing to do with a debate on FoxNews. It would be a complete trap. There is nobody left with any impartiality, they are all either hopelessly partisan to Trump or biased to the business model of Fox. They dont try to ameliorate their bias and find some balance because it is the opposite of what the business wants and demands – over time, through natural selection, all that are left at FoxNews are utterly bereft of any willingness, ability, ethics or morality to properly moderate a presidential debate.

    Baier is supposed to be one of the better ones. But then this….
    https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/08/media/fox-baier-reputation-reliable-sources/index.html

  45. Newscorp is a political player. None of its outlets are credible, least of all Fox News. Ms Harris should not have a bar of any debate on Fox News, especially in view of the fact that an arrangement for a debate in September is already in place.

  46. I would advise Harris to debate Trump anywhere, anytime.

    The audience is not that stupid, they can sense at least a little if Fox News frame a one-sided debate.

    Listen, Harris is a professional prosecutor, she can articulate herself magnificently, Trump can barely string a couple of sentences together under those conditions.

    Harris can get under his skin, not hard to do, being a woman she would succeed.

    Go get ‘im Kamala.

    Bludgers leave it to the experts 😀

  48. Good on him standing up to the orange crazy person.

    GA Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger@GaSecofState
    ·
    5h
    Georgia’s elections are secure. The winner here in November will reflect the will of the people. History has taught us this type of message doesn’t sell well here in Georgia, sir.

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