US presidential election minus 14 weeks

The first Harris-versus-Trump forecast model to open for business suggests a significant but by no means decisive advantage to Trump.

With The Conversation keeping this site’s regular US correspondent busy, a quick post of my own on the US election campaign, and a forum for the discussion thereof. The big news from my perspective is that, after all the noteworthy forecasters closed for refurbishment following Joe Biden’s withdrawal, Nate Silver has lifted the lid on his Harris-versus-Trump model.

The model launches with a 61.3% win probability for Trump and 38.1% for Harris, the balance presumably reflecting the possibility that one candidate or the other doesn’t survive until November. These numbers suggest a model with a judiciously wide zone of uncertainty around projections that superficially look very encouraging for Trump. Silver’s model records an essentially dead head on the national popular vote, and doesn’t credit Harris with a better than even chance unless she lands at least two points clear. State-level projections find Trump more likely than not to flip Wisconsin (just), Michigan and Pennsylvania (a little further ahead), Nevada (a little further again) and Arizona and Georgia (both about as strong for Trump as North Carolina, which he carried in 2020).

The Economist’s model is still on ice, but its page explaining its methodology is well worth reading. Its charts comparing the predictiveness of its poll-based and “fundamentals” models going back to 1948 are particularly interesting in finding that the latter have the superior record – certainly at predicting the result 150 days out, but even unto election day itself. However, one of its parameters does not seem to me to be quite as fundamental as all that, being a poll-based measure of presidential approval.

The question of polls-versus-fundamentals was the focus of a critique by Nate Silver of the new model developed by FiveThirtyEight, the enterprise formerly synonymous with Silver but now bought out, LucasFilm style, by Disney. Its new incarnation is overseen by G. Elliott Morris, of whom Silver says he is “not a fan”. This was producing remarkably bullish results for Biden up until it was put on ice, which evidently wasn’t persuading too many senior Democrats. As well as criticising a lack of transparency, Silver observes that the model seems to be overwhelmingly favouring fundamentals, despite its supporting data suggesting that fundamentals should in fact be viewed as less predictive than polls. Its thesis, Silver argues, is that – as of July 21 – “Joe Biden is a reasonably clear favorite to win the popular vote because he’s an incumbent, and it’s too early to really update that assumption based on the polling or anything else”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,063 comments on “US presidential election minus 14 weeks”

Comments Page 14 of 22
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  1. Confessionssays:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 2:02 pm
    Good on him standing up to the orange crazy person.

    GA Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger@GaSecofState
    ================================================

    I suspect the “Don the Old” statement about Georgia and its major city Atlanta. Will go down as well their as ScoMo’s Croods statement went down in Perth. People in southern USA don’t like being run down by Yankees i’ve been told. Particularly by a grifter and carpetbagger from New York.

  4. Entropy:

    Brian Kemp basically told Old Don to naff off too. There was an expectation from Republicans that Kemp and his AG would be at Trump’s rally in Georgia, but they both refused to attend.

    It’s crazy to think that 3 weeks ago the GOP was unified and locked and loaded behind Trump. Biden stepping aside, anointing Harris and they’re now in disarray behind the scenes.

  5. The ex-lieutenant Governor of Georgia, Geoff Duncan, a Republican, has endorsed Kamala Harris, and he attended her rally in Atlanta last week.
    The 6 reportedly on Harris’s shortlist for VP: Shapiro, Kelly, Waltz, Beshear, Buttigieg, J.B.Pritzker

  6. Confessionssays:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 3:44 pm
    Entropy:

    Brian Kemp basically told Old Don to naff off too. There was an expectation from Republicans that Kemp and his AG would be at Trump’s rally in Georgia, but they both refused to attend.

    It’s crazy to think that 3 weeks ago the GOP was unified and locked and loaded behind Trump. Biden stepping aside, anointing Harris and they’re now in disarray behind the scenes.
    =====================================================

    I assume that was the rally in Atlanta you posted a photo of earlier. With Vance speaking and the MAGA crowd holding up “You’re Fired” signs. Seems to me the MAGA idiots know they are losing momentum badly in this contest. Instead of blaming their cult hero “Don the Old’ they are all turning on Vance. While Vance is obviously part of their problem. They are deluded if they think he is their main problem.

  7. I’m sure a condition of Shapiro getting the nod would include statements on Gaza that are acceptable to the Dem progressives.

  8. The other thing about the Harris campaign: they are 100% inside Donald’s head. They know he obsesses over polling numbers and audience numbers. So here’s Team Harris posting contrasting images of audience at Harris’s Georgia rally from last week, and images of Trump’s rally today at the same venue! She packed over 10,000 people into that venue, whereas Trump…not so much :lol

    https://www.instagram.com/p/C-OpGfih3u9/

  10. Rex Douglas @ #656 Sunday, August 4th, 2024 – 4:38 pm

    I’m sure a condition of Shapiro getting the nod would include statements on Gaza that are acceptable to the Dem progressives.

    I see you’re setting yourself up to spam this thread with criticism of Josh Shapiro if he doesn’t dance to your tune, Rex Douglas.

    You. Are. So. Predictable. 😐

  13. Boerwar:

    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 3:14 pm

    ‘Mavis says:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 2:46 pm

    Trump demented compilation:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTEl0U3Yuu4‘
    ——————-
    [‘Just took some time off from reading the Orange of the Species.
    Example after example of phonemic aphasia.’]

    If Trump flukes a second term and given dementia is progressive, Vance would have little option other than to invoke the 25th. On second thoughts, I think even a demented Trump would be better than a cognitively well Vance as he actually believes in Project 25, the author of which apparently wrote the forward to ‘Hillbilly Elegy’ whereas Trump’s interest in it is I think purely transactional.

  14. Confessions @ #661 Sunday, August 4th, 2024 – 5:17 pm

    C@t:

    I just want Vance to stay on the ticket. He’s such a gift to the Democrats.

    He’ll be staying because I’m sure that Peter Thiel and Elon Musk have extracted a quid pro quo from Old Don in exchange for their donations and platforming him during the campaign.

  15. C@tmomma says Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 5:54 pm

    Confessions @ #661 Sunday, August 4th, 2024 – 5:17 pm

    C@t:

    I just want Vance to stay on the ticket. He’s such a gift to the Democrats.

    He’ll be staying because I’m sure that Peter Thiel and Elon Musk have extracted a quid pro quo from Old Don in exchange for their donations and platforming him during the campaign.

    On the other hand Donald doesn’t strike me as the type of man who will ever have the epitaph “his word was his bond” applied to him.

  16. It’s great to see the Dems firing salvos at the waterline of the bad ship MAGA. Craville’s entreaty to do so is working a treat.

  17. bc @ #664 Sunday, August 4th, 2024 – 6:03 pm

    C@tmomma says Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 5:54 pm

    Confessions @ #661 Sunday, August 4th, 2024 – 5:17 pm

    C@t:

    I just want Vance to stay on the ticket. He’s such a gift to the Democrats.

    He’ll be staying because I’m sure that Peter Thiel and Elon Musk have extracted a quid pro quo from Old Don in exchange for their donations and platforming him during the campaign.

    On the other hand Donald doesn’t strike me as the type of man who will ever have the epitaph “his word was his bond” applied to him.

    He’s more like a bonded servant to the people who own him.

  18. If Trump doesn’t show up and Harris does, what’s most likely to happen? Would the debate then be cancelled or does Kamala get to “debate” an empty chair, in what’s more effectively a long interview between her and the moderator?

  19. Kirsdarke @ #667 Sunday, August 4th, 2024 – 6:14 pm

    If Trump doesn’t show up and Harris does, what’s most likely to happen? Would the debate then be cancelled or does Kamala get to “debate” an empty chair, in what’s more effectively a long interview between her and the moderator?

    Yep and vice versa for the Fox ‘debate’ that Trump is trying to lure Kamala Harris into.

  20. Old Don is highly transactional. Therefore I reckon he’s likely to be having a quiet word with Vance not long after Harris announces her VP, and telling him he’s stepping down.

    My fear from the outset was that Trump would nominate Haley or Rubio: shoring up Latinos or going after women. I was delighted when he announced Vance, who is a lightweight.

  22. Kirsdarke @ #668 Sunday, August 4th, 2024 – 6:14 pm

    If Trump doesn’t show up and Harris does, what’s most likely to happen? Would the debate then be cancelled or does Kamala get to “debate” an empty chair, in what’s more effectively a long interview between her and the moderator?

    The network will likely reframe the ‘debate’ as a set piece interview.

  23. C@t at 6:16pm,

    I think that would probably work out better for Kamala there. Trump does one of his usual Nuremburgersville rallies that he’s been doing for the past 9 years, same old-same old, while Kamala gets to tell the voters what sort of President she would be if elected while being able to attack Trump and the Republicans on what they have to offer unchallenged.

  25. Kirsdarke @ #672 Sunday, August 4th, 2024 – 6:22 pm

    C@t at 6:16pm,

    I think that would probably work out better for Kamala there. Trump does one of his usual Nuremburgersville rallies that he’s been doing for the past 9 years, same old-same old, while Kamala gets to tell the voters what sort of President she would be if elected while being able to attack Trump and the Republicans on what they have to offer unchallenged.

    Nuremburger nothingburger? Trump’s rallies are as light as fairy floss. Lots of storytelling about the people he hates…because they don’t like him or won’t bend to his will…lots of sturm und drang about present day America, which isn’t true, and zero policy.

    One thing I did notice about his Atlanta rally was that he’s intent on keeping Blacks in the Republican tent, so he is featuring them behind him at his rallies to prove they haven’t abandoned him BUT he keeps choosing really, really black Blacks to be behind him. Are they the ‘authentic Blacks’ he speaks of?

  26. C@t at 6:41pm

    Something I’ve picked up about the old far-right in the USA, particularly those like Trump that grew up in the times before LBJ’s Civil Rights reforms that they particularly despise mixed-race black people because it triggers something in their sad, miserable little minds that a white person had a baby with a black person and that’s an outrage to them.

    It’s a reason why they hated Obama in particular. At least “fully black” people show that their ancestry stayed segregated.

  27. Practical considerations in the event Trump tells Vance “You’re Fired”.

    According to Mitchell Brown, a political science professor at Auburn University, if Trump did want to replace Vance, he could.

    “There’s a clear deadline for filing to be on a ballot in each of the states,” Brown previously told Newsweek, adding that as long as a new vice presidential candidate is picked before that deadline, they can replace Vance.

    However, Brown warns it wouldn’t be as simple as Trump just choosing a running mate the second time around as she referenced the Republican National Committee’s (RNC) rules adopted in 2020.

    The rules state that a vacancy of the Republican presidential nominee or their running mate may be filled by the RNC or the RNC could reconvene its national convention to vote for a replacement.

    Brown also pointed out a couple of concerns with Trump switching vice presidential candidates: “Stability, the time it takes to gear up a campaign once you have your nominees and run a good campaign.”

    https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-may-replace-jd-vance-within-10-days-chuck-schumer-1931248 dated 29 July.

  28. Kirsdarke @ #667 Sunday, August 4th, 2024 – 6:14 pm

    If Trump doesn’t show up and Harris does, what’s most likely to happen? Would the debate then be cancelled or does Kamala get to “debate” an empty chair, in what’s more effectively a long interview between her and the moderator?

    I read today (but I forget where, so not verified) that in T****’s absence ABC will give Harris the floor for the timeslot set aside for the debate, to say whatever she likes to their national audience.

  29. I think Trump is certainly the sort of bloke to sack someone if he must, if possible.

    Don’t be surprised!

    Personally, I’d put Nikki Hayley in Vance’s place immediately.

    Didn’t Trump sack Scaramuci as head of communications when he was president? He gave Hayley the job who went on to perform very well – history could repeat…

  30. Kirsdarke @ #675 Sunday, August 4th, 2024 – 6:55 pm

    C@t at 6:41pm

    Something I’ve picked up about the old far-right in the USA, particularly those like Trump that grew up in the times before LBJ’s Civil Rights reforms that they particularly despise mixed-race black people because it triggers something in their sad, miserable little minds that a white person had a baby with a black person and that’s an outrage to them.

    It’s a reason why they hated Obama in particular. At least “fully black” people show that their ancestry stayed segregated.

    Exactly. There’s a saying among White Women…
    ‘Once you go Black, you’ll never go back.’ 😉

  31. Centre @ #678 Sunday, August 4th, 2024 – 7:20 pm

    I think Trump is certainly the sort of bloke to sack someone if he must, if possible.

    Don’t be surprised!

    Personally, I’d put Nikki Hayley in his place immediately.

    Didn’t Trump sack Scaramuci as head of communications when he was president? He gave Hayley the job who went on to perform very well – history could repeat…

    You’re showing your ignorance of American Electoral Law. The ultimate meaning of the convention is to legally ratify the candidates. Once they have done that it is virtually impossible to get rid of them. Trump isn’t king. Yet. Anyway, if they did try it the Democratic Party would challenge it in court, and that’s one court case Trump doesn’t want.

  34. Well Ms Catmomma, Trump has about 10 days before the Ohio ballot is formalised.

    So there : tongue sticking out emoji

  35. C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 6:16 pm
    Kirsdarke @ #667 Sunday, August 4th, 2024 – 6:14 pm

    If Trump doesn’t show up and Harris does, what’s most likely to happen? Would the debate then be cancelled or does Kamala get to “debate” an empty chair, in what’s more effectively a long interview between her and the moderator?
    ======================================================
    Yep and vice versa for the Fox ‘debate’ that Trump is trying to lure Kamala Harris into.
    ===================================================

    Though no time or date has been agreed around the hypothetical Fox debate. So it is not the same. Though i can certainly see Don Auld and Fox conspiring to pretend it is.

  37. Catmomma, very true, also he doesn’t want someone like Hayley to outshine him.

    Still, if he must, I say he will…

  38. Honestly leaning toward the possibility that Trump will probably end up firing Vance as running mate, mainly because of time pressure regarding the approaching deadline, and that he was mainly recommended by his imbecile sons, who I’m sure he likes about as much as his father Fred Trump liked him, so very little.

    However, if he does so, he’ll probably choose someone even worse and in that case they’ll be locked in.

  39. C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 7:57 pm
    Centre @ #683 Sunday, August 4th, 2024 – 7:50 pm

    Well Ms Catmomma, Trump has about 10 days before the Ohio ballot is formalised.

    So there : tongue sticking out emoji
    —————————————
    Okay, how about, Donald Trump doesn’t like to admit he has made a mistake?
    =========================================================

    That is certainly true. So hypothetically if he does ditch Vance. It will involve blaming someone else for his selection too.

    Though the problem for the Don of Auld with doing that. Is that it makes it seem he was not in charge of making the decision. Which, along with being seen to have been wrong, being seen to delegate an important decision. Is not something he likes to admit doing either.

  41. Centre

    “ Well Ms Catmomma, Trump has about 10 days before the Ohio ballot is formalised.”
    ——————————————————————-

    I almost hope for a Democrat moratorium on criticising J D Vance as “weird” until after this deadline is passed. It would be a shame to “lose him” from the Democrat campaign, to which he has already given so much.

    It will be interesting to see the next round of US swing state polls. There hasn’t been much (any?) good news for Trump this week.

    Conversely, the Democrat campaign since the candidate change has been excellent – energetic and strategic.

  42. Entropy @ #688 Sunday, August 4th, 2024 – 8:00 pm

    C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 7:57 pm
    Centre @ #683 Sunday, August 4th, 2024 – 7:50 pm

    Well Ms Catmomma, Trump has about 10 days before the Ohio ballot is formalised.

    So there : tongue sticking out emoji
    —————————————
    Okay, how about, Donald Trump doesn’t like to admit he has made a mistake?
    =========================================================

    That is certainly true. So hypothetically if he does ditch Vance. It will involve blaming someone else for his selection too.

    True dat. 😀

  46. FUBAR @ #694 Sunday, August 4th, 2024 – 9:27 pm

    Launching 50 missiles at Israel indicates Hezbollah doesn’t want war with Israel. Makes sense.

    Been There @ #695 Sunday, August 4th, 2024 – 9:32 pm

    Assassinating leader of Hamas in Iran indicates Israel doesn’t want war with Iran!

    Makes sense.

    Fubar and Been There, you are on the wrong thread! Please go back to the Open Thread and leave this one to the topic of the US Presidential election. We don’t need your partisan vitriol here.

  47. Mavis,
    I use the word deliberately, but when I hear Trump say things like Putin did a good job wrt the prisoner swap, all I can think is that he has groomed his followers to accept Putin and all his sins as much as he has groomed them to accept Trump himself and all his sins.

  48. “Yep and vice versa for the Fox ‘debate’ that Trump is trying to lure Kamala Harris into.”

    I think i will agree with that c@t. Its quite plausible that there could be, effectively 2 interviews instead of a second debate. 🙂

    But, would Trumps campaign take the risk?? And, its a considerable risk with it very possible Trump will just go off with the evil feegles into la la land with no-one to reign him in.

  49. Mavissays:
    Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 9:43 pm
    Had anyone argued that a candidate for the presidency who extols the virtues of Putin & Xi would be taken as a serious contender, they would be scheduled. But that’s what Trump said at the recent Atlanta rally.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOEG8Z7zIwA
    ==================================================

    If Ronald Reagan wasn’t already dead. The fact that the Presidential candidate for his party was doing that. Would probably kill him. As he already is, he will have to make do with spinning in his grave instead.

  50. imacca @ #700 Sunday, August 4th, 2024 – 9:48 pm

    “Yep and vice versa for the Fox ‘debate’ that Trump is trying to lure Kamala Harris into.”

    I think i will agree with that c@t. Its quite plausible that there could be, effectively 2 interviews instead of a second debate. 🙂

    But, would Trumps campaign take the risk?? And, its a considerable risk with it very possible Trump will just go off with the evil feegles into la la land with no-one to reign him in.

    I have the feeling that such a case in Trump’s Fox News “Empty Chair Debate” Special he’ll basically spend the whole time being like “I’m not the coward, you’re the coward!” as he usually does.

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