With The Conversation keeping this site’s regular US correspondent busy, a quick post of my own on the US election campaign, and a forum for the discussion thereof. The big news from my perspective is that, after all the noteworthy forecasters closed for refurbishment following Joe Biden’s withdrawal, Nate Silver has lifted the lid on his Harris-versus-Trump model.
The model launches with a 61.3% win probability for Trump and 38.1% for Harris, the balance presumably reflecting the possibility that one candidate or the other doesn’t survive until November. These numbers suggest a model with a judiciously wide zone of uncertainty around projections that superficially look very encouraging for Trump. Silver’s model records an essentially dead head on the national popular vote, and doesn’t credit Harris with a better than even chance unless she lands at least two points clear. State-level projections find Trump more likely than not to flip Wisconsin (just), Michigan and Pennsylvania (a little further ahead), Nevada (a little further again) and Arizona and Georgia (both about as strong for Trump as North Carolina, which he carried in 2020).
The Economist’s model is still on ice, but its page explaining its methodology is well worth reading. Its charts comparing the predictiveness of its poll-based and “fundamentals” models going back to 1948 are particularly interesting in finding that the latter have the superior record – certainly at predicting the result 150 days out, but even unto election day itself. However, one of its parameters does not seem to me to be quite as fundamental as all that, being a poll-based measure of presidential approval.
The question of polls-versus-fundamentals was the focus of a critique by Nate Silver of the new model developed by FiveThirtyEight, the enterprise formerly synonymous with Silver but now bought out, LucasFilm style, by Disney. Its new incarnation is overseen by G. Elliott Morris, of whom Silver says he is “not a fan”. This was producing remarkably bullish results for Biden up until it was put on ice, which evidently wasn’t persuading too many senior Democrats. As well as criticising a lack of transparency, Silver observes that the model seems to be overwhelmingly favouring fundamentals, despite its supporting data suggesting that fundamentals should in fact be viewed as less predictive than polls. Its thesis, Silver argues, is that – as of July 21 – “Joe Biden is a reasonably clear favorite to win the popular vote because he’s an incumbent, and it’s too early to really update that assumption based on the polling or anything else”.
thanks m-b. Interesting. Does Sanders operate like that tho? I think he just a straight shooter.
Fess: “These people are so out of touch with current society.”
———————————————————————————
The Kennedys – with the major exception of the seemingly pleasant and charming Caroline – have long lived largely in a world of their own imagining. The behaviour of most of the males has been notoriously preppish, so there is nothing particularly out of the family character in this story.
On the other hand, notwithstanding all of his faults, RFK senior was a man who stood publicly for some important things, particularly in relation to civil rights. If he were still with us (which, if he hadn’t been shot dead, is conceivable, as he would have been slightly younger than Jimmy Carter), RFK snr would be very disappointed in how his son has turned out.
TK: “thanks m-b. Interesting. Does Sanders operate like that tho? I think he just a straight shooter.
———————————————————————————
My comment was meant to be sarcastic: the old “kiss of death” idea.
I agree that Bernie is generally a straight shooter. From where I stand he’s quite admirable in all respects apart from most of his policy positions.
Oh shoot.
Do I really need peeps to use a sarcasm emoji? it is starting to look that way.
meher baba @ #751 Monday, August 5th, 2024 – 10:21 am
On the other hand, despite his Progressive policy actions, Tim Walz has been able to sell them to moderate voters. Also, he appeals to moderate and Right-leaning demographics like farmers, veterans, the military and those left behind and ignored in the Rust Belt.
How much of the process to pick a VP is theatre, and how much a deeper process with guarded details?
One of the characteristics of the Dems switching to Harris was how she “hit the ground running” and the unity on display within the party, to the point that there’s speculation on PB that most of the decisions were taken much earlier. Rapidly choosing of VP running mate would have undermined the narrative that switching to Harris was recent. The theatre must be allowed time to do its work.
I wonder therefore if there are two things going on at the moment. There’s the orchestrated public theatre of a steady but decisive process leading up to the “reveal”. Then there’s the need for public unity, which is the real reason Harris is meeting with all the possible VPs. She needs to let them know both in person and ahead of time that they didn’t get picked, convince them to help her, and then help them to get solidly and loudly behind her for the upcoming theatric “reveal”. If this is correct, the VP decision was made and communicated to the candidates some time ago and what we are watching is Harris meeting with the candidates for detailed discussions so that their actions after Tuesday are coordinated. (As well as supporting the theatre.)
”
Badthinkersays:
Monday, August 5, 2024 at 10:08 am
Jimmy Carter endorses Kamala. In hospice care for about 18 months,…
18 months?
Have a think about whether that’s possible.
”
I don’t know about Carter period in Hospice. But you are sick in mind to post things like that about an old man and a great human being, who made difference in the lives of people in Africa and who is now on a death bed. Shame on you!
I consider such people beneath contempt.
If you don’t want to help others that is your choice but don’t diss on people who helped others and have been an indpiration to others.
I recently saw Sanders being interviewed on CNN. Although he turns 83 in Sept, he’s still very much got his marbles, but I’m not sure if he
should press Walz’s credentials given his (Sanders) association with the left thereby providing Trump with grist for the mill.
I like that Walz at least fights back when accused of being ‘too progressive’. ‘Moderate’ in the Washington context seems to be code for ‘more beholden to corporate donors’, which has its own risks, whether that perception is fair or not
The stockmarket just plunged several percent over the last few days.
Sure, the momentum is with Harris – but is a recession in the last months of a Biden presidency going to ruin the campaign for his anointed heir? This could be the big tipping-point factor.
So. Is Vance a couch potato or a lounge lizard?
Ven +1
”
C@tmommasays:
Monday, August 5, 2024 at 10:44 am
meher baba @ #751 Monday, August 5th, 2024 – 10:21 am
Team Katich: “Why?”
——————————————————————————– His endorsement of Walz is a further pointer to the fact that Walz is a fair way to the left of centre. All the US political pundits I have read/heard seem to be suggesting that Harris is searching for a moderate candidate who will appeal to “middle America”, particularly that element of it that resides in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
If he truly wants Walz to be the V-P nominee, Sanders would have much done better to keep quiet.
On the other hand, despite his Progressive policy actions, Tim Walz has been able to sell them to moderate voters. Also, he appeals to moderate and Right-leaning demographics like farmers, veterans, the military and those left behind and ignored in the Rust Belt.
”
And it seems he won 5 tiimes to US HOR 5 times from rual electorate in Minnesota.
Wiki: Timothy James Walz (/wɔːlz/ WAWLZ; born April 6, 1964) is an American politician, former U.S. Army non-commissioned officer, and retired educator who has served since 2019 as the 41st governor of Minnesota. A member of the Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party (DFL), he was a member of the United States House of Representatives representing Minnesota’s 1st congressional district from 2007 to 2019.
“He was elected to the United States House of Representatives for Minnesota’s 1st congressional district in 2006, defeating six-term Republican incumbent Gil Gutknecht. He was reelected five times, retiring in 2019 after being elected governor. ”
“Minnesota’s 1st congressional district extends across southern Minnesota from the border with South Dakota to the border with Wisconsin. It is a primarily rural district built on a strong history of agriculture, though this is changing rapidly due to strong population growth in the Rochester combined statistical area. The district is also home to several of Minnesota’s major mid-sized cities, including Rochester, Mankato, Winona, Austin, Owatonna, Albert Lea, Red Wing, New Ulm, Worthington, and Lake City. It is represented by Republican Brad Finstad.”
”
Bonzasays:
Monday, August 5, 2024 at 10:52 am
I like that Walz at least fights back when accused of being ‘too progressive’. ‘Moderate’ in the Washington context seems to be code for ‘more beholden to corporate donors’, which has its own risks, whether that perception is fair or not
”
bonza
Please read my @11:05 am comment.
Sanders does very well in favourability polling. Often much much better than the usual suspects. His left wing ideology doesnt hurt him. Partly because when he sells them to people, he sells them very well, and also because he is also a realist.
I often wonder what the US would be like had he won the Dem nomination in 2016.
Badthinkersays:
Monday, August 5, 2024 at 10:08 am
Jimmy Carter endorses Kamala. In hospice care for about 18 months,…
18 months?
Have a think about whether that’s possible.
=================================================
He is 100 and his body is failing him not his mind. Unlike the demented Don.
Since Walz is endorsed by Bernie Sanders that doesn’t mean “Walz is a fair way to the left of centre”. It appears he has knack to convince rural people. So even if he can peel off a percentage or 2 from rural electorate, who are overwhelmingly with Trump, it may help in a close race.
If you noticed that Walz won the Minnesota District 1 from a long time Republican congressman and as soon as he retired from that electorate after becoming Governor, it went back to Republican congressman after 12 years.
Initially, I wanted Roy Cooper of NC but now I am endorsing Walz.
There is another readin to support Walz. It boils the blood of Badthinker and that is an icing on the cake. 🙂
Ven
Yes. On this don’t let the GOP define Middle America. That way the GOP cannot define Harris. Remembering so called “Woke California” has had Republican governors in recent political history.
An example of pundit group think not reflecting the reality of the state where Peter Thiel lives and thrives.
Jen Psaki show starting VP pick top issue. James Carville and Rev Sharpton guests on MSNBC. Live now
Scott 1says:
Monday, August 5, 2024 at 12:03 pm
Jen Psaki show starting VP pick top issue. James Carville and Rev Sharpton guests on MSNBC. Live now
==============================================
It is someways unfortunate that Harris has to choose her VP running mate in the next few days due to Ohio. In would be much better if it could be announced at the Democratic convention later in the month. Mainly because this whole process is keeping some prominent and very impressive Democratic politicians front and centre in the news cycle. Something which is sucking lots of airtime from the Weird Don the Demented’s campaign. So the longer it could continue the better in my opinion.
The 538 YouTube vid the other day pointed out a few insights on the national versus swing state polling.
Traditionally the national polling has been to the left of the swing states, ie the swing states are to the right of the majority of Americans. What this has meant for democrats is that a 2 point lead in the national polls often does not translate to winning the swing states, Hillary was a classic example of that.
Apparently what is different this time is that Harris is doing as well in the swing states as she is in the national polling. This means that normally deep blue states like California are not as enthusiastic for Harris as say some like Biden. But in the swing states she is out performing a standard Dem presidential nominee by several points.
These polling results go against decades of data. I’m interested in what this might mean. Does it mean that the deep blue states have not yet come in behind Harris, which might mean something for the down ballot races? Or does it mean that support for Harris is soft, and if the swing states go back to the norm of being a point or two below the national polling then is Harris at risk of not winning those states?
Thanks C@t for posting that link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vgMIWFBvlTE
RFK admits to being behind a “prank” to dump the body of a dead bear in NY Central Park.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/05/rfk-jr-kennedy-bear-story-central-park-new-york
RFK is nuts. Who in their right mind would think this would win them a single vote??
Ven
+1 on Jimmy Carter. A greatly underrated person and president. One of the few who tried to improve USA’s reputation with developing countries.
Looks like there may be a honeymoon period for Harris in the polls. The trend is your friend.
Harris is definitely at risk of losing those states. I dont agree that this is a honeymoon, Harris has just righted the ship and moved it away from dirty air. I think the fact that Trumps raw numbers havent dropped indicate that. Harris will need to finish the repairs and set sail in the convention. Then keep working. There will be no spinnaker. This is an against the wind effort just to match Bidens 2020 EC result.
Trend, momentum etc sounds nice – but it wont happen.
Yes, there will be a honeymoon period for Harris/whoever she picks until approximately a week to two weeks following the end of the Democratic National Convention. It will be mid-September before the polls are believable again.
Mavis @ #730 Monday, August 5th, 2024 – 9:34 am
Maybe, in time, we’ll know the true story. If the early debate had not happened and Biden had stuck to teleprompted stump speeches, he would probably still be the candidate. Perhaps the early debate was pushed from within the Biden circle to bring the issue to head. Although, I did read somewhere that it was Biden’s inner circle that were the hold outs. Or perhaps it was dumb luck that the democrats had a window to pull the rug after the Republicans had put all their eggs in the “sleepy Joe” basket (including picking Vance as VP).
Either way, the democrats have had a brilliant two weeks and have opened a path to victory. Bookies had Biden as low as a 10% chance prior to his withdrawal. Harris is pushing close to 50% and will probably tip over to being a slight favourite by their Convention’s end. None of that means they’ll win. Just they have chance now.
Remember peeps, Biden was up by 8pt in the polls in 2020, won by 4pts and won the EC by a very small number of votes. We havent seen polls recently from the pollsters that got it (national) right in 2020 (eg TIPP, Emerson).
So either Harris needs to get further ahead or better Bidens 2020 turnout or hope the poll error last time is not replicated this time for whatever reason.
Trump has a solid base that arent going to be swayed by trends or momentum. Traditional Republicans are a very stubborn lot who will almost resoundingly either vote Trump or stay home. The pathway is narrow.
Anthony Scaramucci, in his post debate comments on the train wreck, noted that Biden’s camp said, after the debate he had a cold. He was astounded, and said it if this was the case, it should have been leaked before the debate to set expectations.
So maybe the Biden’s circle could see the disaster coming, but let it run. It was a way to bring the issue to a head. Not sure if we’ll ever know.
‘Team Katich says:
Monday, August 5, 2024 at 12:54 pm
…’
—————
+1
Fox host Laura Ingraham’s brother spills the beans on his Trump-loving sister, claiming she was heavily influenced by their Hitler-sympathising, alcoholic, “Mein Kampf” displayed on the coffee table father. I knew intuitively that no one would conduct themselves as Laura does without being messed up in her childhood. Seek help, Laura.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3yEPRKKzF4
‘ScromoII says:
Monday, August 5, 2024 at 12:36 pm
Yes, there will be a honeymoon period for Harris/whoever she picks until approximately a week to two weeks following the end of the Democratic National Convention. It will be mid-September before the polls are believable again.’
—————-
Trump believes them right now. So does Vance.
Dutton@Trump
Work To Rule:
Monday, August 5, 2024 at 12:50 pm
Let’s hope that those who know the truth of the matter keep it mum at least until the election is over. It could be that the Democratic inner sanctum posited to others that plans were only in place if Biden became incapacitated or died.
Boerwar says:
Monday, August 5, 2024 at 1:33 pm
Trump is in a divorce phase right now.
His polling is tanking.
His fund raising is second rate.
Former associates are ratting on him.
Prominent Republicans are declaring for Harris.
His venues have rows of empty seats. Even those present seem as much bemused as energized.
His VEEP candidate reckons he is Hitler.
And so on and so forth.
Yeah, it’s hard to support Sander’s policies, what with his advocation for public health care, increasing the minimum wage, protection for the enevironment and making corporations pay federal taxes. What a wild eyed radical!
Boerwar @ #783 Monday, August 5th, 2024 – 1:03 pm
I reckon it does hinge on Trump being unhinged. If he loses his cool, looks desperate, does desperate things – then yeah, we might see Harris gain significant enough momentum to be confident.
I am still very confident Vance will stay as VP. But Trump has so many screws loose he could dump him and hire someone even more unpalatable – like one of his children. Things like that could see this change from a tight race.
”
Mostly Interestedsays:
Monday, August 5, 2024 at 12:17 pm
The 538 YouTube vid the other day pointed out a few insights on the national versus swing state polling.
Traditionally the national polling has been to the left of the swing states, ie the swing states are to the right of the majority of Americans. What this has meant for democrats is that a 2 point lead in the national polls often does not translate to winning the swing states, Hillary was a classic example of that.
Apparently what is different this time is that Harris is doing as well in the swing states as she is in the national polling. This means that normally deep blue states like California are not as enthusiastic for Harris as say some like Biden. But in the swing states she is out performing a standard Dem presidential nominee by several points.
These polling results go against decades of data. I’m interested in what this might mean. Does it mean that the deep blue states have not yet come in behind Harris, which might mean something for the down ballot races? Or does it mean that support for Harris is soft, and if the swing states go back to the norm of being a point or two below the national polling then is Harris at risk of not winning those states?
Thanks C@t for posting that link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vgMIWFBvlTE
”
MI
Regarding the soft polling in California or New York: Maybe it is due to those states being in Democrats control for long time and voters are tired of Dems.
If you notice 2022 election, where there was supposed to be ‘red wave’ which didn’t eventuate (Even Adrian Beaumont was convinced that ‘red wave’ till the end of vote counting). The Dems lost majority in US HOR mainly because they lost a lot of seats in NY and California(around 15-20 seats).
In other states Dems were able to stand their ground or increase majority. All Trump endorsed candidates except JD Vance and couple of others lost in 2022.
Dems were able to stop ‘red wave’ inspite of Biden negative approval ratings(~ -12%).
In 2024, there was surge Dems polling only after Biden withdrawal. So Biden had been a drag on Dems.
”
Mostly Interestedsays:
Monday, August 5, 2024 at 12:17 pm
The 538 YouTube vid the other day pointed out a few insights on the national versus swing state polling.
Traditionally the national polling has been to the left of the swing states, ie the swing states are to the right of the majority of Americans. What this has meant for democrats is that a 2 point lead in the national polls often does not translate to winning the swing states, Hillary was a classic example of that.
Apparently what is different this time is that Harris is doing as well in the swing states as she is in the national polling. This means that normally deep blue states like California are not as enthusiastic for Harris as say some like Biden. But in the swing states she is out performing a standard Dem presidential nominee by several points.
These polling results go against decades of data. I’m interested in what this might mean. Does it mean that the deep blue states have not yet come in behind Harris, which might mean something for the down ballot races? Or does it mean that support for Harris is soft, and if the swing states go back to the norm of being a point or two below the national polling then is Harris at risk of not winning those states?
Thanks C@t for posting that link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vgMIWFBvlTE
”
MI
Regarding the soft polling in California or New York: Maybe it is due to those states being in Democrats control for long time and voters are tired of Dems.
If you notice 2022 election, where there was supposed to be ‘red wave’ which didn’t eventuate (Even Adrian Beaumont was convinced that ‘red wave’ till the end of vote counting). The Dems lost majority in US HOR mainly because they lost a lot of seats in NY and California(around 15-20 seats).
In other states Dems were able to stand their ground or increase majority. All Trump endorsed candidates except JD Vance and couple of others lost in 2022.
Dems were able to stop ‘red wave’ inspite of Biden negative approval ratings(~ -12%).
In 2024, there was surge Dems polling only after Biden withdrawal. So Biden had been a drrag on Dems.
I think it is the wrong point of view to say things like ‘Trump is unhinged’. Trump is evil and very deliberately calibrates everything he says, right down to the comedic turns he takes during his rallies, his rambling, seemingly incoherent tales which he tells and, especially, the vile vituperation he carefully inserts between all of it. I take every word he says very, very seriously. Even if he flubs some of them for whatever reason. Like any successful Reality TV show, that sort of thing is what the audience craves and what they have factored in and normalised.
Work To Rule: “Anthony Scaramucci, in his post debate comments on the train wreck, noted that Biden’s camp said, after the debate he had a cold. He was astounded, and said it if this was the case, it should have been leaked before the debate to set expectations.
So maybe the Biden’s circle could see the disaster coming, but let it run. It was a way to bring the issue to a head. Not sure if we’ll ever know.”
———————————————————————–
I don’t reckon that Biden had a cold. It was just a lame excuse.
I reckon that what happened with the debate was a bit like what happened with the Challenger Space Shuttle. A whole bunch of people just kept blithely working towards a catastrophe, ignoring anyone who questioned the agreed approach.
And there was probably also an element of the circumstance of a frog in a pot of slowly boiling water. The people around Biden saw a lot of him every day and that meant that the steady decline in his mental and physical faculties was not particularly apparent to them.
Chris Christie yesterday on the VP choice for Kamala Harris, a very political perspective (in a good way):
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4810721-chris-christie-blames-trump-for-boosting-josh-shapiro-by-endorsing-his-weakest-opponent/
Yes, he certainly plans to say things that can be easily interpreted as fascist, racist and seditious.
But I think he will take risks and does spur of the moment stuff then rides it homes. It is deliberate, from years of positive reinforcement of getting away with it, but not planned or thoroughly thought through. He has a significant behavioural disorder that in most places, most of the time, sees you tossed out of the village. Unhinged? Evil? Just words that I am happy to agree, disagree or work on.
So, I still say the only way Harris can get ahead (enough to be confident) is if Trump does some really stupid stuff. Perhaps not unhinged, but at least desperate in a tantrummy way, to remind people why they voted him out last time.
”
Mavissays:
Monday, August 5, 2024 at 1:05 pm
Fox host Laura Ingraham’s brother spills the beans on his Trump-loving sister, claiming she was heavily influenced by their Hitler-sympathising, alcoholic, “Mein Kampf” displayed on the coffee table father. I knew intuitively that no one would conduct themselves as Laura does without being messed up in her childhood. Seek help, Laura.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3yEPRKKzF4
”
Laura Ingraham is even worse than say Miranda Devine, Janet A, and Peta Credlin combined.
There is a possibility that Devine, Janet A or Credlin writing/saying something sane. I cannot envisage that senario with Ingraham.
Murdoch was so impressed by Devine to Newyork Post in NY
Given Kelly’s service as a USN captain & as an astronaut, he could be a dark horse coming through the middle of Walz and Shapiro, though Harris would probably prefer someone with executive experience. One thing’s for sure, Kelly would be a steady pair of hands in a crisis.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXpVccBkjME
Plus Biden being counselled by his family who no doubt encouraged him to keep going, thereby Biden continuing to dig in. “You’re the only one who can beat him, Joe. You’ve done it before and you can do it again” etc etc.
c@t: Christie is right. Shapiro is a charismatic, popular, moderate politician who is extremely popular in the state that the Dems simply must hold on to if they are going to retain the Presidency.
Beshear is a plodder.
Kelly is a plodder with a great cv and an impressive wife. But a plodder nonetheless.
Cooper was a plodder, but pulled out.
Whitmer attracts enormous love from the pundit class, but I’ve always thought she comes across as a little bit flaky (check out her rather forced smile). And, anyway, she pulled out too.
Walz is an impressive guy, but he strongly believes in lots of things that Harris used to support, but is trying to distance herself from a little now. Making him the V-P nominee would provide Trump and Vance with an excellent way of tying her back to those further left stances she once took.
While he sometimes reminds me of Hymie the robot out of Get Smart, Buttigieg is really good, but there is the issue of how devout Christians – particularly African-Americans and Hispanics – would react to a gay candidate.
Pritzker, who is allegedly back in contention, is pretty good too I reckon, but he is very Chicago.
The fact that Shapiro is Jewish is going to be a minor problem in Michigan, but I think is compensated for by his many strengths.
Ven:
Monday, August 5, 2024 at 2:14 pm
[‘Laura Ingraham is even worse than say Miranda Devine, Janet A, and Peta Credlin combined.’]
They most likely modelled themselves on Ingraham. By the way,
Murdoch’s “New York Post” has an editorial arguing that Trump must
“woo” women voters to have any chance of winning. Too late, I think.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5L7LrW_guPo&t=576s
Mavis @ #792 Monday, August 5th, 2024 – 2:24 pm
I have to say these kind of videos annoy me inordinately. Nothing he says is badly off, but I just struggle with videos that keep adding to the noise in terms of what is actually happening. Just Trump is down with woman, he as always polled poorly with women. Great, but will that lose him the election? Maybe, but dont go on about it like it’s the cliff edge that spells his doom.
Ok rant over.
‘malignant narcissist’ is a technical term that accurately describes Trump. This is Trump’s permanent psychological state. There is no cure. Associated symptoms are ‘paranoia’ and ‘sadism’ both technical terms accurately describes Trump. Trump’s lying is associated with his malignant narcissim rather than with his dementia. However, his lies may become wilder as his impulse control increasingly fails him.
On top of this, Trump has demonstrated all of the dementia symptoms itemized below. They are typically associated with a deteriorating frontal lobe. They are not on permanent display. Most of them are becoming more frequent.
‘early onset dementia’ is a technical term that accurately describes Trump.
‘Sundowner Syndrome’ is a technical term that accurately describes Trump.
‘phonemic aphasia’ is a technical term that accurately describes Trump.
‘dementia posturing’ is a technical term that accurately describes Trump.
‘delusional state’ is a technical term that accurately describes Trump.
‘excessive sleeping’ is a technical term that accurately describes Trump.
‘memory loss’ is a technical term that accurately describes Trump.
‘impulse control issue’ is a technical term that accurately describes Trump.
‘balance issue’ is a technical term that accurately describes Trump.
‘vagueness’ is a technical term that accurately describes Trump.
‘slurred speech’ is a technical term that accurately describes Trump.
‘simplified syntax’ is a technical term that accurately describes Trump.
‘verbal fillers’ is a technical term that accurately describes Trump.
‘repetition’ is a technical term that accurately describes Trump.
‘confabulation’ is a technical term that accurately describes Trump.
‘unhinged’ is a non technical term. It may do to indicate a situation in which Trump has lost control over his impulses.
Roseanne’s ex husband weighs in on the weird video with RFK Jnr.
Okay, Mostly Interested, this sober analysis of polling by David Pakman is for you. 😉 Also, anyone else who wants to take a geez:
https://youtu.be/-4FEX2hJ1Yw?si=RWHVnTL64ur9lQ7A