With The Conversation keeping this site’s regular US correspondent busy, a quick post of my own on the US election campaign, and a forum for the discussion thereof. The big news from my perspective is that, after all the noteworthy forecasters closed for refurbishment following Joe Biden’s withdrawal, Nate Silver has lifted the lid on his Harris-versus-Trump model.
The model launches with a 61.3% win probability for Trump and 38.1% for Harris, the balance presumably reflecting the possibility that one candidate or the other doesn’t survive until November. These numbers suggest a model with a judiciously wide zone of uncertainty around projections that superficially look very encouraging for Trump. Silver’s model records an essentially dead head on the national popular vote, and doesn’t credit Harris with a better than even chance unless she lands at least two points clear. State-level projections find Trump more likely than not to flip Wisconsin (just), Michigan and Pennsylvania (a little further ahead), Nevada (a little further again) and Arizona and Georgia (both about as strong for Trump as North Carolina, which he carried in 2020).
The Economist’s model is still on ice, but its page explaining its methodology is well worth reading. Its charts comparing the predictiveness of its poll-based and “fundamentals” models going back to 1948 are particularly interesting in finding that the latter have the superior record – certainly at predicting the result 150 days out, but even unto election day itself. However, one of its parameters does not seem to me to be quite as fundamental as all that, being a poll-based measure of presidential approval.
The question of polls-versus-fundamentals was the focus of a critique by Nate Silver of the new model developed by FiveThirtyEight, the enterprise formerly synonymous with Silver but now bought out, LucasFilm style, by Disney. Its new incarnation is overseen by G. Elliott Morris, of whom Silver says he is “not a fan”. This was producing remarkably bullish results for Biden up until it was put on ice, which evidently wasn’t persuading too many senior Democrats. As well as criticising a lack of transparency, Silver observes that the model seems to be overwhelmingly favouring fundamentals, despite its supporting data suggesting that fundamentals should in fact be viewed as less predictive than polls. Its thesis, Silver argues, is that – as of July 21 – “Joe Biden is a reasonably clear favorite to win the popular vote because he’s an incumbent, and it’s too early to really update that assumption based on the polling or anything else”.
Ellen Rae Breenberg, stabbed 20 times, ruled a suicide.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ellen_Rae_Greenberg
Trump might be hoping it’s Shapiro too?
Confessions @ #793 Monday, August 5th, 2024 – 2:16 pm
Yep, I think that’s probably closest to the truth. The further you went into the inner circle, the stronger the belief that Biden was the only one who could defeat Trump. Peaking with Jill. Understandable, an indefatigable belief you can win is almost an essential trait for a team running for president. Biden was probably right in that belief in 2020. But not in 2024.
It was probably the push from the broader democrat movement that overcame the inner circle, and maybe they leveraged off existing contingency plans to make such a fast and effective pivot.
C@tmomma @ #797 Monday, August 5th, 2024 – 3:26 pm
Clearly I’m way too wound up. I’m desperate to protect my sanity after the 2016 outcome, that took weeks to get over so I’m down playing as much as I can because, looks at 1 million polling site, its still only 50/50 :-p
https://abcnews.go.com/US/aide-josh-shapiro-allegedly-invoked-pennsylvania-governors-threat/story?id
Gonna be hard to pick Josh, can Harris do it?
This is her Eagleton/McGovern moment, imo.
Kamala Harris choosing her vice president will not make any difference to the result of the election. Regardless of who Trump ultimately puts forward as his VP pick will hardly make any difference to the result of the election.
Who cares about the debates if any – hardly any difference.
The real big news today is that the global stock markets have been smashed. The ASX 200 has suffered its worst fall since the covid 19 pandemic.
Economists are forecasting a certain recession for the USA. If that is the case, and people believe they are worse off under the Democrats than Trump previously, Harris will be in seriously big trouble.
Game on!
You watch Trump hammer home “the economy” from here on in! The cost of living, like here in Australia, is high in the US. They’ve had high interest rates, and now a possible recession in plenty of time before the election.
Yep, game on!
What’s worse is that if a slowing economy spreads here in Australia, it’s not only the Democrats that are in trouble, Peter Dutton will be screaming you beauties all over the place even if he can be heard.
Getting something to eat…
incl.:
He decided not to back a federal fifteen-week abortion ban Conway had advocated in summer 2023.
Wow!
This Conway chick has been the problem all along, imo.
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/trump-allies-kellyanne-conway-badmouthing-vance
Yep.
’22 was a good Election to lose, too late for Labor now!
It is interesting watching Trump returning to Biden.
The good thing is that Trump may have realized that Biden is not Obama after all.
The bad thing?
Trump still thinks he is running against Biden.
You can invert ‘good’ and ‘bad’ at your leisure.
From all accounts Nancy Pelosi and other senior Democrats tried to appeal to him behind the scenes, quietly, invoking the down ballot races and withdrawal of donors. But Biden dug in.
Then came the public appeals and disendorsements. This should not have gone on for as long as it did, but this was the impact Biden’s family was having on him, insisting that the polls showed he was on track to win, and he should just stare them down. The problem was that the polls he was being shown were way outdated, something confirmed when Team Biden told commentators they hadn’t done any polling for over 2 months.
At Biden’s public insistence that he hadn’t seen any polls showing no clear path to re-election, apparently Pelosi stepped in and demanded of his aides to show her the polling data. After that it was pretty much all over. Pelosi and others met with Biden and convinced him that not only would Democrats lose the WH, but would experience deep losses in the senate and house as well.
I think Democrats can be grateful that Biden at least has a sense of the problem the country is facing and was eventually prepared to put party and country above his own personal ambitions. But the fact that he chose a carefully curated bubble of influence to listen to doesn’t really say great things about his capacity to continue for another 4 years.
One thing that struck me at the time of the debate was this:
If Biden, right at that moment, decided himself or was convincingly advised that dropping out was the only option, he and his team would have immediately gone into planning mode and kept the actual decision absolutely quiet until the ideal time. That would have involved ongoing bluster about how he was in it to win it, and there was no way he wasn’t going to be the one to beat Trump etc.
And, that’s precisely what we saw. Exactly when Biden made the decision to drop out we probably won’t know for a while, but I guess my point is that everyone involved would have kept it under wraps until they could make the best out of the situation. Stories leaking about what his family and close advisers were telling him would have been part of the theatre of it.
As with many political moves, the people making plans will do their utmost – including blatantly lying about it when pressed – to keep those plans secret until they figure it’s opportune to set everything in motion.
The fact that Biden’s announcement came immediately after the RNC had concluded, and the subsequent smooth transition to Harris, does make me lean towards it all being thoroughly planned for a few weeks at least; Biden didn’t just wake up that particular day and decide it was over.
I disagree. I think, as do many US election commentators, that if Shapiro is her VP pick then that at least should make PA winnable for the Dems.
As for Vance’s impact on the Republican campaign, the results speak for themselves. He is the most unpopular VP candidate in modern history. The leaking against him came from within the GOP and within days of his endorsement. His presence on the ticket is a direct reminder to voters that the Republican party is anti-woman, is against self-determination for women’s health care and women’s bodies, anti-abortion, and is still hugging Project 2025 close to their chests given Vance wrote the forward or introduction to the manifesto singing its praises as a work of policy genius and a path forward for the Republicans.
Yes indeed. As I said at the time, Biden had no option but to say he was still running and do so emphatically. Because the moment he prevaricated events would have gotten away from him, and he would lose control of the narrative.
The other thing that has just struck me is that for a while now Biden has been in negotiations with the prisoner release. I can see him a) wanting to be the one who saw that through to the end and therefore b) needed to remain as president and presumptive nominee in order to keep the deal progressing.
Is it possible that he actually could see the writing on the wall electorally, but only withdrew his candidacy once the hostage deal was finalised and the ink had dried on the multilateral contracts?
I guess we’ll never know…
Badthinker says Monday, August 5, 2024 at 3:37 pm
I’m not sure what her death has to do with Josh Shapiro. She died in 2011. At the time of her death he was a member of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives while also practicing corporate law at Stradley, Ronon, Stevens, and Young in Philadelphia. He didn’t become Attorney General until 2017.
bc @ #816 Monday, August 5th, 2024 – 5:26 pm
But evil minds like Badthinker’s don’t deal in the facts, they deal in slurs.
I guess we’ll never know…
Yes we will, when we get the book. Joe’s gotta make a post retirement living. 🙂
I’ll say one thing about those baseless allegations against Josh Shapiro, they haven’t troubled his constituents in Pennsylvania.
It’s only grubs like Badthinker and Trump who think it will.
Badthinker @ #808 Monday, August 5th, 2024 – 4:20 pm
You mean the one that won him the 2016 election as his campaign chair? That one? The one who is actually right about JD Vance? Her?
You’re not a very convincing liar, Badthinker.
bc:
I’m not sure what her death has to do with Josh Shapiro. She died in 2011. At the time of her death he was a member of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives while also practicing corporate law at Stradley, Ronon, Stevens, and Young in Philadelphia. He didn’t become Attorney General until 2017
Shapiro was A/G 4 years, the case didn’t progress on his watch, though he defended it’s handling by his office.
Autopsy indicated Ellen had been beaten in the days and weeks prior.
It’s a pretty big deal ATM in Pennsylvania.
https://www.lambmcerlane.com/articles/ellen-greenberg-died-by-suicide-with-20-stab-wounds-her-parents-are-out-to-prove-thats-impossible/
Centre @ #805 Monday, August 5th, 2024 – 1:50 pm
I think you may have overcooked the egg with claims of a certain recession.
Fox Business:
Economists at Goldman Sachs raised the likelihood of the U.S. economy slipping into a recession within the next 12 months from 15% to 25% while continuing to view the risk of recession as limited, according to a report
Josh Shapiro has been openly critical of Bibi, which the chuds must hate because it’s harder to level accusations of antisemitism at him
Bonza @ #823 Monday, August 5th, 2024 – 6:03 pm
He also, by doing that, takes the side of the secular American Jews that Trump has been trying to corral for the Republicans.
BC
“I’m not sure what her death has to do with Josh Shapiro. She died in 2011. At the time of her death he was a member of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives while also practicing corporate law at Stradley, Ronon, Stevens, and Young in Philadelphia. He didn’t become Attorney General until 2017.”
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The GOP are getting desperate if that is all the mud they have to throw at Shapiro.
“But his emails…”
Honestly, Badthinker, is that the best the Rethugs have got against Josh Shapiro? Donald Trump is a convicted felon and convicted rapist!
I’ve just added chuds to my lexicon in relation to Trump’s Republican party. Thanks Bonza!
I’ve gone off Shapiro a bit; I’m now thinking Walz might be worthy of the gong. As the first woman to accede to the highest office (I’m counting my chickens), Harris would be cognizant of the difficulty if her choice of VP turned out to be paternalistic: she must feel confident in making her own decisions. Walz is a former school teacher, a moderate, with an agrarian background, who would probably be attractive to voters in bordering states. The downside is that Minnesoata has 10 ECVs; Penn, 19. In a close election, 9 votes could be crucial.
I personally prefer Walz, but I’m endorsing Shapiro to give the Dems the best chance of defeating MAGA.
He speaks the truth about Netanyahu.
He makes the pro-Netanyahu MAGA’s look like extremists.
He can help with a good share of ECV’s.
He will tempt anti-MAGA Republicans to support the Dems.
Badthinker says Monday, August 5, 2024 at 5:58 pm
There are certainly legitimate questions about the handling of the case by the Police, and does appear more likely to be a homicide rather than a suicide. But I don’t see anything to implicate Shapiro in the Police’s incompetence.
As to why his department didn’t do much with it when it got to them? I don’t know, maybe they didn’t have the resources. I can see why it might be given low priority – it’s not an active case, it’s very unlikely to result in a conviction and it’s been punted over to them.
seadog @ 6.01 pm
Goldman Sachs are probably the ones that are selling 😀
The Republicans have spent up big in PA. I’ve no doubt they would hate to see a popular Pennsylvania governor on the Democrat presidential ticket.
This article from the AP details some of the Democratic supporters who are voicing their concerns about Josh Shapiro and Mark Kelly:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/democrats-united-quickly-around-harris-it-s-a-different-story-for-her-running-mate-20240804-p5jzcj.html
The article posted by Badthinker says that a medical examiner’s findings in Penn have never been successfully challenged, though with 2o stabs wounds, it’s time they were. But attributing at least implied blame to Shapiro is overreach.
Jackol, earlier
“The fact that Biden’s announcement came immediately after the RNC had concluded, and the subsequent smooth transition to Harris, does make me lean towards it all being thoroughly planned for a few weeks at least; Biden didn’t just wake up that particular day and decide it was over.”
—
Yes. Let’s give them credence for some competence. And the VP pick will be done the same way. Think backwards from that premise and ask yourself, what Harris and others must actually have been doing this last week to 10 days.
seadog: “I think you may have overcooked the egg with claims of a certain recession.”
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+1
Global markets have reacted to a rather dramatic drop in official statistics re US job creation. Of course, this comes on top of rising concerns about the continuing weakness of the Chinese economy and the potential impact of Iran’s response to the assassination of the Hamas leader in Tehran on global oil prices and supply chains.
But we are only talking about one month’s figures, and these have come on top of other figures from a few days ago that showed that there were still more job vacancies in the US than there are unemployed people available to fill them.
I expect the panic to keep pushing stock prices down for a few more days and then we’ll see what happens next. In the history of capitalism, there has never been more money floating around markets looking for lucrative investments. Once the dust settles, the logical next step is for this money to flood into share markets looking for bargains. If that doesn’t start happening after a week or two, it will be time to start worrying about a serious recession.
This conspiracy Rachel Maddow is peddling about ‘up to 70’ county election officials across the swing states refusing to certify the election in their districts.
So the theory is that the votes for the state won’t be tallied, therefore won’t be certified, therefore the election result will go to the state assembly who will hand the electoral college votes to Trump – whew!
So Biden could exercise his new found immunity, and instruct the FBI to go out and knock on up to 70 doors with a indictment for sedition in their hands.
”
C@tmommasays:
Monday, August 5, 2024 at 6:12 pm
Honestly, Badthinker, is that the best the Rethugs have got against Josh Shapiro? Donald Trump is a convicted felon and convicted rapist!
”
According to Badthinker, a slur is more important than convicted felon and convicted sex offender. It again shows how sick in mind Badthinker is.
meher baba
So you are saying that after a week or two money will start flooding back into share markets looking for bargains – otherwise it will be time to start worrying about a serious recession?
No, the markets have fallen too heavily for that.
The US Fed had intended to cut by 25 basis points, they will cut by 50 basis points. Given that, the chances of a recession are greater than not, by a factor of two to one!
I don’t think this is a conspiracy. She is likely referencing the multitudinous Trump appointed Republicans in official positions in swing states who now have oversight over their state’s electoral count.
The Bulwark has been warning about this for the last 12-18 months as it became clear Biden wasn’t competitive. And remember that the Electoral College has an inbuilt pro-Republican bias making it difficult for Democrats from the outset. Harris is a clear underdog and needs to be regarded as such.
NEW POLL — A new CBS News poll of likely voters finds VP KAMALA HARRIS and DONALD TRUMP locked in a statistical dead heat. Head to head, Harris is at 50 percent and Trump is at 49 percent — well within the nationwide poll’s 2.1-point margin of error. With third-party candidates included, Harris sits at 49 percent, Trump at 47 percent and ROBERT F. KENNEDY at 2 percent.
Among likely voters In battleground states (margin of error +/- 4 points):
• Arizona: Harris 49 percent, Trump 49 percent
• Georgia: Harris 47, Trump 50
• Michigan: Harris 48, Trump 48
• Nevada: Harris 50, Trump 48
• North Carolina: Harris 47, Trump 50
• Pennsylvania: Harris 50, Trump 50
• Wisconsin: Harris 49, Trump 50
If the pattern holds, this could be every bit as unpredictable an election as the last couple with a high number of states on a knife-edge.
I guess the Trump campaign would take the above numbers for now given Harris is still in ‘honeymoon’. She still has an uphill battle to win, that’s for sure.
2 things the Dems should do:
A. Make the VP announcement as late as possible while the focus is all on Harris, and not in a negative way. (they’ve largely achieved this one)
B. Shore up Pennsylvania with multiple rallies/campaign stops from ‘Scranton Joe’ Biden there between now and November – probably one of the most useful things he can do, though he has to be careful to be seen to still be governing as well. She has to make up somehow for his local roots and reputation for blue-collar support.
(this may be slightly less critical if Shapiro is the pick – my gut tells me he won’t be but I’ve no idea why or who will be so not trusting my gut)
Centre: “So you are saying that after a week or two money will start flooding back into share markets looking for bargains – otherwise it will be time to start worrying about a serious recession?
No, the markets have fallen too heavily for that.
The US Fed had intended to cut by 25 basis points, they will cut by 50 basis points. Given that, the chances of a recession are greater than not, by a factor of two to one!”
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So, from your perspective, the share market falls a bit after a rather surpriing surge last week and you reckon the global economy is all done and dusted. Even though, as I write, the DJI is still 1 per cent higher than it was a month ago.
It’s quite possibly the start of a major crash, but I would like to see a bit more evidence before I am totally convinced.
@BTSays at 7:34pm
It takes a lot of party discipline to keep things going when there’s such a major change as the switch from Biden-Kamala. And so far the Republicans are proving to be poor at that. Their response to being called “weird” and having JD Vance’s weird incelposting past being brought out into public is to scream “SHUT UP! SHUT UP! LALALA I CAN’T HEAR YOU! YOU’RE WEIRD! STOP! STOP IT NOW!”
If they win from here then it’ll honestly be one of the worst chapters of human history.
meher baba
You on the right thread? (doesn’t appear so, this is the USA election one)
Too close to call.
I am looking forward to the next Black Swan event.
BTsays: “meher baba
You on the right thread? (doesn’t appear so, this is the USA election one)”
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I believe I’m responding to previous posts on here about the stock market crash. Or did i post about something else? It’s probably time for me to go to bed.
WaPO lead article on Monday morning…
By Marianne LeVine
August 4, 2024 at 6:00 a.m. EDT
President Biden’s withdrawal and Vice President Harris’s selection as the presumptive Democratic nominee have reset the 50-state race for the White House.
Former president Donald Trump had gained in national and state-level polls after a June debate in which Biden appeared confused and was at times unable to answer questions.
But in the two weeks since Biden dropped out and Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee, Democrats’ poll numbers — and their chances of holding the White House — have rebounded. The path to victory for Harris once again runs through seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
“The Democratic base is coming home,” said Amy Walter, publisher and editor in chief of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. “In states that we know that are evenly divided and have been very, very close for these last few elections, they kind of snap back to being very, very competitive and will be the focus of the 2024 campaign.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/04/harris-trump-electoral-map-votes/
meher baba
You are on the right thread.
Nobody knows for certain. You make a good point that the market had been rising rapidly before the falls.
We’ll just wait and see 🙂
BTSays @ #845 Monday, August 5th, 2024 – 7:46 pm
This is the US thread.