With The Conversation keeping this site’s regular US correspondent busy, a quick post of my own on the US election campaign, and a forum for the discussion thereof. The big news from my perspective is that, after all the noteworthy forecasters closed for refurbishment following Joe Biden’s withdrawal, Nate Silver has lifted the lid on his Harris-versus-Trump model.
The model launches with a 61.3% win probability for Trump and 38.1% for Harris, the balance presumably reflecting the possibility that one candidate or the other doesn’t survive until November. These numbers suggest a model with a judiciously wide zone of uncertainty around projections that superficially look very encouraging for Trump. Silver’s model records an essentially dead head on the national popular vote, and doesn’t credit Harris with a better than even chance unless she lands at least two points clear. State-level projections find Trump more likely than not to flip Wisconsin (just), Michigan and Pennsylvania (a little further ahead), Nevada (a little further again) and Arizona and Georgia (both about as strong for Trump as North Carolina, which he carried in 2020).
The Economist’s model is still on ice, but its page explaining its methodology is well worth reading. Its charts comparing the predictiveness of its poll-based and “fundamentals” models going back to 1948 are particularly interesting in finding that the latter have the superior record – certainly at predicting the result 150 days out, but even unto election day itself. However, one of its parameters does not seem to me to be quite as fundamental as all that, being a poll-based measure of presidential approval.
The question of polls-versus-fundamentals was the focus of a critique by Nate Silver of the new model developed by FiveThirtyEight, the enterprise formerly synonymous with Silver but now bought out, LucasFilm style, by Disney. Its new incarnation is overseen by G. Elliott Morris, of whom Silver says he is “not a fan”. This was producing remarkably bullish results for Biden up until it was put on ice, which evidently wasn’t persuading too many senior Democrats. As well as criticising a lack of transparency, Silver observes that the model seems to be overwhelmingly favouring fundamentals, despite its supporting data suggesting that fundamentals should in fact be viewed as less predictive than polls. Its thesis, Silver argues, is that – as of July 21 – “Joe Biden is a reasonably clear favorite to win the popular vote because he’s an incumbent, and it’s too early to really update that assumption based on the polling or anything else”.
You know what I’m pee’d off about?
I snagged myself a Biden-Harris t-shirt in America and I thought I would parade around the place in it up until the election in November. But no, now I have to black out Joe Biden’s name so I can wear it saying Harris! 😆
Global markets have reacted to a rather dramatic drop in official statistics re US job creation.
Sorry to impinge on this thread but I have to direct meher baba to Stephen Bartholomeusz’s article explaining how it’s actually Jerome Powell’s fault that the markets have tanked:
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/sharemarkets-gripped-by-panic-amid-fears-the-fed-just-made-a-big-mistake-20240805-p5jzgk.html
I am just going to wait for Harris’s running mate announcement at this point. I’ve given my thoughts on respective candidates. It doesn’t really matter what I think. I’ll wait to see who it is and play the ball as it lies. It’s the top of the ticket that matters more anyway.
But some quick last minute thoughts on the whole thing:
– Vibes matter more than substance.
– Voters aren’t going to be doing deep dives into the running mate’s policy record. They might try that but it’s boring nerd shit. Scandals or embarrassing things from the past are the stuff that resonates – but, as I alluded to before, end of the day it’s vibes.
– The ideal running mate is someone who makes the ticket look nice (in an electoral sense) and stays out of trouble.
– Every candidate is going to be attacked by Republicans and even Joe Manchin would be portrayed as “too left wing” by them.
– Running mates don’t really augment the ticket that much as much as they fill the gaps that the Presidential nominee creates.
– Any figure who publicly endorsed a running mate candidate should hang their heads in shame. All you’re doing is creating division, setting up expectations and possibly fomenting disappointment and resentment.
– If you’re engaged enough to have strong takes on this, the VP pick isn’t for you and the guy you like the best is irrelevant. This is even more true for us commentators on an Australian politics board.
– The race is Kamala Harris v. Donald Trump. That’s what matters at the end of the day.
Can I just make a comment also about how toxic the other thread has become? It’s just full of rabid Labor haters. Is it any wonder the terrorism threat level has had to be raised? People believing that frothing at the mouth constantly about the government is a productive way to behave like an adult when discussing politics. When it’s exactly that sort of behaviour that is causing people to lose faith in government and thus turn to more radical and dangerous alternatives.
Of course, I ultimately blame Donald Trump. His malevolent and malign approach to politics is being copied around the world.
He won’t.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/08/05/2024-election-campaign-updates-harris-trump/
The timing of a US recession preventative rate cut will be (ahem) interesting. I’d argue a “September” rate cut will have a great chance of helping Harris. Interest rate cuts are seen as a positive by a large swathe of the population even though they are actually the sign of an economy that needs help.
The timing between September and November could well give a window of time before a recession really kicks in.
With the reduction in inflation lowering gas (petrol) prices since 12 months ago, people are noticing a bit more money in their pockets already (it certainly saved us at least $100 AUD between being there in April and then to July when filling up our family’s spare car that we used).
Knowing someone that is looking to refinance a home loan I know they’ll see a rate cut as a positive right at the moment.
“Can I just make a comment also about how toxic the other thread has become? It’s just full of rabid Labor haters. Is it any wonder the terrorism threat level has had to be raised? ”
Toxic posts like this are why the other thread is unreadable.
Massive immigration and multiculturalism has backfired spectacularly in Britain as the riots go on.
Georgia Governor Kemp has a popularity rating of 63% but this
has not stopped Trump from ridiculing him, obviously still smarting from Secretary of State Raffensperger’s refusal to find him some 11,700 votes at the last election. Georgia has 16 ECVs, which both sides need. And the polls have narrowed. “Morning Joe”& guests discuss Trump’s Georgia strategy or lack thereof:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZhJPRJzHx0
C@tmomma:
Monday, August 5, 2024 at 9:36 pm
[‘Can I just make a comment also about how toxic the other thread has become?’]
Agree, Cat. I had a brief look & decided to watch Four Corners & Media Watch. When it’s so rabid, it’s a turn-off, not that I’m not up for the occasional fight.
Gouge-o-rama:
Trump hikes Mar-a-Lago membership to $1m raising concerns of selling access
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/05/trump-mar-a-lago-membership-price-hike
Pueo says Monday, August 5, 2024 at 11:13 pm
Milk them now in case he can’t after November?
One more thing voters are up against in the US, conservative groups challenging voter registrations by the thousands: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKFALtjiS_8
From The Guardian live blog:
Tim Walz! Tim Walz! Tim Walz! 😀
#TeamTim
Mavis @ #860 Monday, August 5th, 2024 – 11:06 pm
Ditto, Mavis. 😉
PHOENIX — ‘Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes (D) reached a cooperation agreement Monday with Jenna Ellis, who was a legal adviser to Donald Trump’s 2020 campaign and was one of 18 defendants indicted in April on felony charges related to alleged efforts to try to subvert President Biden’s victory in the state four years ago, according to prosecutors.’
(Washington Post)
I hope she’s living in a Safe House.
Kamala Harris still has a lot of work to do:
The Washington Post is gathering the best available national and state-level polling data, and factoring how citizens in each state voted in the past two presidential elections, to calculate whom voters currently favor in the presidential race.
Here’s who is ahead in Harris vs. Trump presidential polls:
THE POST’S POLLING AVERAGES
Updated August 5, 2024
Trump is leading in 5 of the 7 battleground states.
Pa.
Tie
Wis.
Harris
<1
Mich.
Trump
+2
Nev.
Trump
+4
N.C.
Trump
+4
Ariz.
Trump
+4
Ga.
Trump
+5
See the polls:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/presidential-polling-averages/
BIG court win for the Democratic Party against the Republican Party wrt mail in ballots:
https://youtu.be/4hue_gZbSis?si=HX8yzLZgELP8Ef8T
Why are the hard left and Democratic Socialists ignoring the statements and actions of non Jewish VP candidates and only focusing on the Jewish candidate?
Seems a bit discriminatory to me. Imagine if it was Shapiro in this photo?
I rate TIPP. 538 dropped them down in their ratings after the midterms but they got it right in 2020. They show Harris up by 2.
And Fabrizio shows it evens in PA. Biden won it (his home state) by 1pt in 2020.
WaPo a little different to 538 and Nate Silver. Both showing a +2. Nate saying PA is +1 for instance. Morning Consult just in with a large 11,265 RV sample at +4.
Momentum still with Harris.
I’m just trying to be even-handed. 😉
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/harris-46-trump-43-tired-not-winning-shapiro?r=1emko&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
I think the WaPO includes pre-Biden dropout data, whilst Nate Silver only has the fresh stuff.
3 new polls out today have Harris edging away..
TIPP
Harris 46
Trump 45
https://issuesinsights.com/2024/08/05/trump-harris-neck-and-neck-but-her-post-biden-honeymoon-with-voters-might-not-last-ii-tipp-poll/
Morning Consult
Harris 48
Trump 44
https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/2024-presidential-election-polling
Amherst/UMass
Not yet released, Bill Kristol got an early drop saying ‘Harris is up 3’ nation wide
Looking forward to some Georgia polls post Trump shitcanning Governor Kemp and his wife
Fess is on the UMass case!
From Morning Consult..
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Harris leads Trump by record margin: Harris leads Trump, 48% to 44%, a record-high margin in her favor in our tracking and the largest advantage for a Democratic presidential candidate over Trump in nearly a year. Harris leads Trump by 5 points among independents (42% to 37%) and by 9 points among 18- to 34-year-olds (49% to 40%), which are both record-high margins for her among the key groups of swing voters. By comparison, President Joe Biden only bettered Harris’ showing among independents once in our daily tracking, back in January 2023, and in his final head-to-head tracking survey with Trump, he trailed the GOP candidate by 9 points among those youngest voters.
Harris’ popularity levels out a bit: More voters than not hold favorable opinions about Harris (48% to 47%). Her favorability rating is still better than it was before she launched her campaign — and better than Trump’s (46%) — but it has declined a little from a 50% high reached last week.
Harris maintains favorable coverage: In the second week of Harris’ campaign, voters remained more likely to say they heard something positive (46%) than negative (33%) about her by a double-digit margin. That net buzz rating also eclipses Trump’s and Biden’s previous highs on the metric, as news sentiment about the incumbent president and Democrats in Congress has also improved.
News cycle turns against Trump: Since Trump’s net buzz rating climbed to an all-time high of just 3 points underwater after the RNC last month, it has steadily declined, and voters are now 20 points more likely to have heard something negative than positive about him in recent days.
Trump garners bulk of voters’ age concerns: Compared with Biden before he ended his campaign, our latest survey shows voters nationwide are far more likely to say Harris is in good health (71% to 30%), mentally fit (64% to 35%) or a strong leader (48% to 38%). Separately, our weekly tracking shows voters are generally expressing more trust in Harris than they did in Biden to handle a range of issues facing the country.
Growing economic concern for voters: With the stock market sliding on the back of last week’s Federal Reserve meeting and underwhelming U.S. jobs report, 79% of voters say the economy is very important when deciding whom to vote for in November, the largest share since December 2022. Last week’s events are clearly filtering down to voters, with net buzz sliding for both the economy (-9 to -18) and jobs (+8 to -7).
Today’s pollster ratings from 538 league table
UMass – 10
TIPP – 115
Morning Consult – 116
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
We know it is the economy, stupid, but we don’t know to what extent it will impact momentum for Harris.
I was going to ignore the GQR poll showing Harris up by 4 in PA as it is a Dem pollster.
But.
Why would the Dems choose to release this internal poll showing them well in front in a state whose governor has been shortlisted for VP?
Or am I reading too much into it?
Who decides which internal polls to release? The DNC? The PA party? Harris’ team?
I’m okay with Tim.
Someone said they were told (WTTE) “never trust someone that dyes their hair”.
I’m not sure about that, but Josh has the Kevin Andrews “look” that once seen cannot be unseen.
https://lorriegrahamblog.com/ive-got-kevin-andrews-hair/
And a Latino poll….
Now a new poll—apparently the first large-sample poll of Latinos since Harris became presumptive Democratic nominee—provides fresh grounds for that optimism. It finds that Harris holds a nearly 20-point lead over Donald Trump among Hispanics in the battleground states, a surprisingly large expansion of Biden’s ailing support among them—and that her candidacy has room to grow that lead, suggesting she may be putting back in play Sun Belt states that appeared lost under Biden.
Harris leads Trump by 55 percent to 37 percent in the head-to-head finding, which sampled 800 Latinos across Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, and North Carolina. The survey—provided to The New Republic in advance of its release on Monday—was conducted July 23–26, well after Biden stepped aside on July 21.
The poll dovetails with other national polls finding similar advantages for Harris among Latino voters. But, significantly, the larger Latino sample size in the survey—commissioned by the voter engagement group Somos PAC and conducted by Latino pollster Gary Segura—provides a stronger basis for confidence that Harris’s lead among Hispanics is real.
“Harris enters as the nominee with a very strong lead among Latinos,” says Segura, whose firm BSP Research did the poll (Segura’s business partner, Matt Barreto, polls separately for the Harris campaign). “We focused only on the battlegrounds, with a large enough sample in them to arrive at a confident estimate of the two-party vote in the states that will actually decide the election—not in states where the outcome is already determined, like Texas and California.”
https://newrepublic.com/article/184533/surprise-poll-reveals-key-trump-weakness-kamala-harris
TK
Campaigns release internal polling selectively when it aids their strategy. The Harris team has the Big Mo, and wants to fuel it through this period where low info voters are tuning in..
‘Mavis says:
Monday, August 5, 2024 at 10:56 pm
Georgia Governor Kemp has a popularity rating of 63% but this
has not stopped Trump from ridiculing him, obviously still smarting from Secretary of State Raffensperger’s refusal to find him some 11,700 votes at the last election. Georgia has 16 ECVs, which both sides need. And the polls have narrowed. “Morning Joe”& guests discuss Trump’s Georgia strategy or lack thereof:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZhJPRJzHx0‘
—————————–
#Trump dementia watch.
Trump spends nine minutes attacking senior Republican figures. He spreads the hate to the wife of the governor. He spends considerable effort telling very big lies and damning lies about the state. What could Trump possibly gain from this in practical terms? Nothing. Could this do significant damage to his POTUS prospects? Considerable.
This is a case of his malignant narcissism being unleashed by dementia-related poor impulse control.
The rage arises from the narcissism. The vitriol and the personal abuse comes from the malignant nature of this narcissism. The poor impulse control comes from his dementia.
Weird.
Awwwww……….
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/05/trump-endorses-electric-vehicles-elon-musk
sprocket_ @ #884 Tuesday, August 6th, 2024 – 7:32 am
Sure, but which low info voter is gonna tune in to the release of one, 500 sample, internal poll? Almost no media are picking it up yet – just small pieces in The Hill and Newsweek from what I can find. Good aggregators wont give it much weight.
So what is the strategy? Is the campaign clearing the path to say they don’t need Shapiro as VP?
TK
There is such a mass of stuff being put out that it might just be seen as more grist to the mill.
Boerwar @ #888 Tuesday, August 6th, 2024 – 8:33 am
But BW, any gambler looks for insider information. Did the betting markets move away from Shapiro after it was dropped? Or, perhaps, did they move just BEFORE it was dropped?
Take Pete off the list
Looking at Sportsbet…
Settled on the candidate chosen to be the Democratic Party vice-presidential nominee as a result of the 2024 Democratic National Convention. All in betting, void if no candidate is nominated by the Democratic Party. Others may be added.
Josh Shapiro
1.83
Tim Walz
1.91
Andy Beshear
12.00
Pete Buttigieg
23.00
Mark Kelly
46.00
Gretchen Whitmer
51.00
Michelle Obama
67.00
Hillary Clinton
71.00
Jay Robert Pritzker
101.00
Gavin Newsom
126.00
Elizabeth Warren
276.00
Roy Cooper
326.00
Amy Klobuchar
501.00
Beto O’Rourke
501.00
Cory Booker
501.00
Jared Polis
501.00
Jon Ossoff
501.00
Raphael Warnock
And the Sportsbet Presidential race still has Trump in the lead.
Some interesting left field candidates if you want a flutter on a roughie..
US Presidential Election 2024
Settled on the winner of the 2024 U.S Presidential Election (60th U.S. Presidential Election). All in betting. Others may be added/quoted. Full terms and conditions for this market can be found in the Sportsbet Terms & Conditions
Donald Trump
1.72
Kamala Harris
2.00
Robert F.Kennedy Jr
81.00
Nikki Haley
101.00
JD Vance
151.00
Michelle Obama
151.00
Hillary Clinton
176.00
Kanye West
251.00
Dean Phillips
276.00
George Clooney
276.00
Andy Beshear
376.00
Gavin Newsom
401.00
Gretchen Whitmer
426.00
Tucker Carlson
426.00
Elizabeth Warren
501.00
Taylor Swift
501.0
Boerwar @ #886 Tuesday, August 6th, 2024 – 8:17 am
The $$ from Elon must have come through. 😐
Trump garners bulk of voters’ age concerns: Compared with Biden before he ended his campaign, our latest survey shows voters nationwide are far more likely to say Harris is in good health (71% to 30%), mentally fit (64% to 35%) or a strong leader (48% to 38%).
Lol. Something that Don-OLD can do nothing about.
C@tmomma @ #891 Tuesday, August 6th, 2024 – 9:35 am
I wonder if Elon really cares too much about Trump winning, or simply his endorsement of EV? If he spent $50m USD that probably isnt the worst advertising investment Elon has ever made.
Elon was slinging Trump $45 million until Trump announced at the RNC that he would halt all support for EVs on Day 1 of his dictatorship for a day routine.
So Elon withdrew the $45 million.
It looks like they are besties again.
MI,
It just shows how cheaply Trump can be bought. I can remember him railing AGAINST EVs at a rally a little over a week ago. Obviously, for the grifter that he has always been, he must have thought that all his christmases had come at once when he lucked into the Presidency.
The Harris team would have picked up on the Oppo research that was released about Josh Shapiro which Badthinker immediately put up here too. I imagine that they will have taken that into account in their deliberations.
Another good point about picking Tim Walz, if they do, is that it will help with the Native American vote in Nevada and Arizona, which also helped Joe Biden in 2020 get over the line there. As, if Tim Walz is chosen, his Lt Governor, who is Native American, will take his place and become the first Native American Governor in the nation’s history.
Hell, it could even help with the Native American vote in Alaska, who just elected their first Native American Member of Congress recently.
I’d also point out that it would help shore up the vote in nominally Blue states like Washington State and Oregon, which were slipping away from the Democratic Party when I was there but which also have large Native American populations.
”
bcsays:
Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 1:00 am
One more thing voters are up against in the US, conservative groups challenging voter registrations by the thousands: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKFALtjiS_8
”
Texas ‘voter suspense’ list climbs past 2 million as election gears up: report
https://www.rawstory.com/news/register-to-vote-texas/
“As the presidential contest draws nearer, Texas faces pivotal elections including a Senate race — and the number of people whose voter registrations are on the “suspense list” has now topped 2.1 million, according to The Dallas Morning News.
If you are a voter in Texas and on that list, it doesn’t mean you won’t be able to vote, the paper stressed — but it does mean there are potentially some extra obstacles.
“Suspense means your county does not know your address or thinks you moved, often because a voter registration card or jury summons sent through mail is returned as undeliverable,” wrote Sarah Bahari. “New voter registration cards are mailed every two years to the most recent address on record. If you do not receive a new yellow and white certification card this year, it could mean you moved without updating your address.”
I have said before that there are multiple good VP picks for the Dems. In the end I think Harris could win with any of Kelly, Shapiro or Walz (or Buttigeig).
That being said, I’d be very happy with Walz. I see no negatives and many positives. Shapiro might get Pennsylvania but cost Michigan. Walz could help win both.