US presidential election minus 14 weeks

The first Harris-versus-Trump forecast model to open for business suggests a significant but by no means decisive advantage to Trump.

With The Conversation keeping this site’s regular US correspondent busy, a quick post of my own on the US election campaign, and a forum for the discussion thereof. The big news from my perspective is that, after all the noteworthy forecasters closed for refurbishment following Joe Biden’s withdrawal, Nate Silver has lifted the lid on his Harris-versus-Trump model.

The model launches with a 61.3% win probability for Trump and 38.1% for Harris, the balance presumably reflecting the possibility that one candidate or the other doesn’t survive until November. These numbers suggest a model with a judiciously wide zone of uncertainty around projections that superficially look very encouraging for Trump. Silver’s model records an essentially dead head on the national popular vote, and doesn’t credit Harris with a better than even chance unless she lands at least two points clear. State-level projections find Trump more likely than not to flip Wisconsin (just), Michigan and Pennsylvania (a little further ahead), Nevada (a little further again) and Arizona and Georgia (both about as strong for Trump as North Carolina, which he carried in 2020).

The Economist’s model is still on ice, but its page explaining its methodology is well worth reading. Its charts comparing the predictiveness of its poll-based and “fundamentals” models going back to 1948 are particularly interesting in finding that the latter have the superior record – certainly at predicting the result 150 days out, but even unto election day itself. However, one of its parameters does not seem to me to be quite as fundamental as all that, being a poll-based measure of presidential approval.

The question of polls-versus-fundamentals was the focus of a critique by Nate Silver of the new model developed by FiveThirtyEight, the enterprise formerly synonymous with Silver but now bought out, LucasFilm style, by Disney. Its new incarnation is overseen by G. Elliott Morris, of whom Silver says he is “not a fan”. This was producing remarkably bullish results for Biden up until it was put on ice, which evidently wasn’t persuading too many senior Democrats. As well as criticising a lack of transparency, Silver observes that the model seems to be overwhelmingly favouring fundamentals, despite its supporting data suggesting that fundamentals should in fact be viewed as less predictive than polls. Its thesis, Silver argues, is that – as of July 21 – “Joe Biden is a reasonably clear favorite to win the popular vote because he’s an incumbent, and it’s too early to really update that assumption based on the polling or anything else”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,063 comments on “US presidential election minus 14 weeks”

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  1. Looking forward to seeing the results of some of these polling averages of swing states in a week or two. Should get better for Harris, at least in the short term. A few of these averages are still including polls at the bottom end, prior to Biden dropping out and which were showing up to a +10 advantage to Trump in states like Nevada and Arizona. Once these polls drop off, we’ll get a more accurate picture.

  2. From the other thread:

    Holdenhillbilly (AnonBlock)
    Tuesday, August 6th, 2024 – 10:28 am

    Black SUVs at home of Minnesota VP candidate Tim Walz ignites internet speculation.

    😯

  3. c@t: “Black SUVs at home of Minnesota VP candidate Tim Walz ignites internet speculation.”
    ——————————————————————————–
    I read somewhere an hour or so back that, on closer examination, they had Minnesota numberplates, which meant that they were Walz’s own security and not the Secret Service.

    FWIW

  4. Apparently Tim Walz ‘never saw combat’, as he was never deployed overseas.

    I can’t wait for Trump to call him a coward or similar.

  5. sprocket_ says Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 11:33 am

    Apparently Tim Walz ‘never saw combat’, as he was never deployed overseas.

    From his Wikipedia page: “He was deployed post-9/11 for half a year to Europe to support Operation Enduring Freedom.”

  6. sprocket_ says Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 11:45 am

    Thanks bc, was going off the 2018 article where he never saw action

    I believe you are correct in that he has never seen combat. However, he has been deployed overseas.

    I’m pretty sure he was in a National Guard artillery unit, so it’s not like he would have been sent to patrol the streets of Baghdad.

  7. sprocket_ @ #916 Tuesday, August 6th, 2024 – 11:33 am

    Apparently Tim Walz ‘never saw combat’, as he was never deployed overseas.

    I can’t wait for Trump to call him a coward or similar.

    You mean like JD Vance, who only ever saw combat with a typewriter ribbon? 😐

    If elected, Vance would become the first to serve at such a senior level from among the generation of men and women who went to war after 9/11. He spent four years in the Marines, from ages 18 to 23, deploying once to Iraq for six months in his capacity as a public affairs specialist, a job that entailed writing news releases, taking photos and interacting with journalists. He did not face combat.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/08/04/jd-vance-marines-trump/

  8. Bone spurs abound.

    An enduring feature of Trump’s most vicious personal attacks is that they are projections of what he believes to be some inner vulnerability of his own.

    His bone spur cowardice will inevitably be transmuted into vicious personal assaults on Walz’s military service. The actual truth does not matter. What matters is Trump’s inner ‘truth’ that his malignant narcissism then projects onto the his opponents.

    It is the symmetry that we need to track here.

    See Trump’s projections on McCain for numerous examples of this syndrome.

    The list of Trump’s vulnerability projections is virtually endless:

    Biden is ‘sleepy Joe’. Trump fell asleep day after day in a COURTROOM.

    Harris is ‘dumb’. Trump is the one who wants to inject bleach, nuke hurricanes, build a moat between Mexico and fill it with alligators and snakes and, more recently, to use bitcoin to pay of the national debt.

    Clinton was ‘crooked’. Trump is the convicted felon.

    And, for a narcissist, the No 1 vulnerability: his popularity. That is one that really gets his malignant juices flowing.

  9. It may be that Everything Trump Touches Dies, but in some cases, what Trump touches gets a plea deal.

    Here is Trump’s election denying lawyer Jenna Ellis’s plea deal with the Arizona government. She and many others are up for similar charges as in the Georgia RICO case. She has undertaken to spill the beans on everyone, including Trump.

    Trump is not charged in Arizona, as yet.

    https://www.azag.gov/sites/default/files/2024-08/Exhibit%20A%20Final.pdf

  10. sprocket_ says Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 12:57 pm

    It may be that Everything Trump Touches Dies, but in some cases, what Trump touches gets a plea deal.

    Here is Trump’s election denying lawyer Jenna Ellis’s plea deal with the Arizona government. She and many others are up for similar charges as in the Georgia RICO case. She has undertaken to spill the beans on everyone, including Trump.

    It’s amazing how many lawyers who work for Trump end up in legal trouble. I wonder if he attracts the corrupt, or everyone he attracts he corrupts? He’s like a black hole for lawyers, destroying all who get too close to him.

  11. It would be interesting how high the Kamala wave gets to. Current polls still have old polling in their averages and the DNC is yet to come. Also whether Harris can maintain her lead afterwards is anyone’s guess. There may be another black Swan event.

    A lead nationally of 3 points as the polls say now is not enough; Trump would still win the electoral college.

    Besides, polls almost always understate the more conservative side. I would venture to say that even if Kamala Harris was ahead nationally by 6 points in the polls and by 5 points in MI, WI and PA the day before the election, she would still have no more than a 50-50 chance of winning the electoral college.

  12. It beggared belief that there was zero overlap between UNWRA, Hamas, and Oct 7 perpetrators.

    The Greens have, of course, been pretty consistent here. Regardless of the truth, they slag Labor. Regardless. They inflame tensions. Regardless. They foment hate. Regardless.

    The Greens have also been relentless in criticizing Israel with respect to the links between UNWRA and Hamas operatives.

    The Albanese Government was quite right to suspend funding of UNWRA because of the possibility that some of its employees had participated directly in rape, child murder, torture and kidnapping of civilians. Which government could possibly fund that? The Greens, of course, DEMANDED that Albanese and Wong fund an organization which had members who participated in Oct 7.

    The Greens will now, doubtless apologize abjectly for the many hundreds of times they attacked Albanese and Wong personally and viciously. They were right. The Greens were wrong. They must feel tempted to launch some defo actions against Bandt.

    Dutton will continue astroturfing communalist hate. Bandt will continue astroturfing communalist hate.

    Dutton and Bandt should pull their heads in. They are making a terrible situation worse.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/05/nine-unrwa-staff-members-may-have-been-involved-in-7-october-attack

  13. I’m sure Harris won’t pick Dutton or Bandt as her VP nomination. She’s too smart.

    So why are we discussing them? 😉

  14. Donald Trump has for months denigrated electric vehicles, arguing their supporters should “rot in hell” and that assisting the nascent industry is “lunacy”. He now appears to have somewhat shifted his view thanks to the support of Elon Musk, the world’s richest person.

    “I’m for electric cars, I have to be because Elon endorsed me very strongly,” Trump, the Republican nominee for US president, told supporters at a rally in Atlanta, Georgia, on Saturday.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/05/trump-endorses-electric-vehicles-elon-musk

    Weirdo’s who have way too much influence

  15. I find it curious that people seem so confident that Trump has an inbuilt advantage with electoral college. Even by 5-points! I know what happened in 2016 and 2020, but I remember Democrats thinking they had an electoral college advantage after 2008 and 2012 elections. Then it was Colorado, the tipping point state in the 2012 election, which was, oddly enough, about 5-points more Democratic than the final margin. How ephemerate that turned out to be. So I wouldn’t be so hasty to assume that Trump could lose the national vote by a large margin and still be favoured to win the electoral college. There just aren’t enough data points to be confident in that outcome.

    If I digress, I’d actually love to see the Democrats win the Presidency but lose the national popular vote. Not in this election but a future one. Then there might be the political will to abolish the electoral college once and for all.

  16. pueo: “Looked a bit like John Denver, don’t you think?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y8UyvjxHAC4
    ——————————————————————————
    Wow! That is quite an obscure pop culture reference. I can only assume that Denny Laine (whom I assume was doing the singing because it doesn’t sound like Paul) substituted “John Denver” for “Richard Cory” because Denver was in the audience. Do you happen to know?

  17. I don’t think the polls always favour the Democrats. They may have in 2016 and 2020 but who knows if that will continue.

  18. YaramahZ @ #933 Tuesday, August 6th, 2024 – 2:32 pm

    I find it curious that people seem so confident that Trump has an inbuilt advantage with electoral college. Even by 5-points! I know what happened in 2016 and 2020, but I remember Democrats thinking they had an electoral college advantage after 2008 and 2012 elections. Then it was Colorado, the tipping point state in the 2012 election, which was, oddly enough, about 5-points more Democratic than the final margin. How ephemerate that turned out to be. So I wouldn’t be so hasty to assume that Trump could lose the national vote by a large margin and still be favoured to win the electoral college. There just aren’t enough data points to be confident in that outcome.

    If I digress, I’d actually love to see the Democrats win the Presidency but lose the national popular vote. Not in this election but a future one. Then there might be the political will to abolish the electoral college once and for all.

    Yes it’s ‘strange’ how the Republicans are all for tearing up the Constitution, except for that bit. 😐

  19. Come hell or high water, MAGA cult members will support Trump, but will middle America follow him down the rabbit hole of Project 2025, which is going to feature prominently in the Democrat’s advertising blitz? It’s doubtful they will. Harris will prevail.

  20. Another US national poll out today. Regardless of debates over poll bias, the trend is clear. The same polls are showing movement of +5% to +6% to Harris since the change in candidate.

    “Political Polls@PpollingNumbers
    #New General Election Poll

    Harris 46% (+3)
    Trump 43%”

    And this was from Nate Silver earlier today.

  21. Mavis @ #937 Tuesday, August 6th, 2024 – 2:40 pm

    Ten minutes of last night’s “The Last Word.” It includes a CBS poll that finds that 49% of the respondents think that Trump does not have the mental health or cognitive capacity to serve as president:

    With the greatest of love.

    This is just another ‘so what’ clip. It could be framed as leftist propaganda. I now that’s a bit BadT or PP of me, but I think having a clear eyed view on what is actually happening, and not what people ‘feel’ about Trump is super important in understanding what the possible and likely outcomes are going to be in November.

    If Harris gets to 75% likelihood of winning, as calculated by the various models out there, then I think we can start to watch these clips as much as possible, but until then they are confirmation bias white bread.

  22. “Wow! That is quite an obscure pop culture reference. I can only assume that Denny Laine (whom I assume was doing the singing because it doesn’t sound like Paul) substituted “John Denver” for “Richard Cory” because Denver was in the audience. Do you happen to know?”

    It can’t be too obscure if you recognised it…

    I don’t know why “John Denver” – but I remembered it. (“Insert local celebrity here”?)

  23. ‘Mostly Interested says:
    Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 3:29 pm

    Mavis @ #937 Tuesday, August 6th, 2024 – 2:40 pm

    Ten minutes of last night’s “The Last Word.” It includes a CBS poll that finds that 49% of the respondents think that Trump does not have the mental health or cognitive capacity to serve as president:

    With the greatest of love.

    This is just another ‘so what’ clip. It could be framed as leftist propaganda. I now that’s a bit BadT or PP of me, but I think having a clear eyed view on what is actually happening, and not what people ‘feel’ about Trump is super important in understanding what the possible and likely outcomes are going to be in November.

    If Harris gets to 75% likelihood of winning, as calculated by the various models out there, then I think we can start to watch these clips as much as possible, but until then they are confirmation bias white bread.’
    ———————-
    Simply not true, IMO.

    It assumes that nobody at akk will be making up their mind now.

    There are many undecided voters. There are many voters who are, further, undecided about whether to bother to turn out at all. Some of those will be making up their minds sooner. Some later. Some possibly never.

  24. HUGE NEWS: BIG move in polls to VP Harris, up in AVG of Big 3, VERY CLOSE IN AZ, NC, GA, leads in

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/5/2260812/-HUGE-NEWS-BIG-move-in-polls-to-VP-Harris-up-in-AVG-of-Big-3-VERY-CLOSE-IN-AZ-NC-GA-leads-in?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

    “Democratic Party nominee Vice President Kamala Harris has seen a massive move in polling in her direction. She leads in every national poll on 538’s website.

    ​​​​​​In SUSA’S national poll, she leads 48% to 45%. This poll was of 1,510 likely voters from August 2nd to August 5th. She leads by 4 percentage points in Morning Consult’s poll, 48% to 44%. Their poll was conducted from August 2 to August 4th of 11,265 registered voters.

  25. Boerwar @ #945 Tuesday, August 6th, 2024 – 3:42 pm

    Simply not true, IMO.

    It assumes that nobody at akk will be making up their mind now.

    There are many undecided voters. There are many voters who are, further, undecided about whether to bother to turn out at all. Some of those will be making up their minds sooner. Some later. Some possibly never.

    I dont know where these undecided voters are getting their information, but this stuff saturates the whole media landscape. From what I can see the change in voter support and intention has come solely from Biden stepping down, and Harris’ energy in campaigning. Puff pieces that say things like “Trump, he nasty” wont swing any voters in that country.

  26. From Wikipedia:

    In the version released on Wings Over America, during the first chorus line Laine (jokingly) substitutes John Denver’s name for Richard Cory’s, thus inciting a roar of laughter and applause from the audience.

  27. HUGE NEWS
    BIG move
    VERY CLOSE

    This is why I avoid these partisan sites. They dont just tell you what to think, they scream it at you.

  28. Simon Rosenberg: If what happened in last 2 weeks as a script to a TV network, it would have been rejected as “outlandish”.

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