With The Conversation keeping this site’s regular US correspondent busy, a quick post of my own on the US election campaign, and a forum for the discussion thereof. The big news from my perspective is that, after all the noteworthy forecasters closed for refurbishment following Joe Biden’s withdrawal, Nate Silver has lifted the lid on his Harris-versus-Trump model.
The model launches with a 61.3% win probability for Trump and 38.1% for Harris, the balance presumably reflecting the possibility that one candidate or the other doesn’t survive until November. These numbers suggest a model with a judiciously wide zone of uncertainty around projections that superficially look very encouraging for Trump. Silver’s model records an essentially dead head on the national popular vote, and doesn’t credit Harris with a better than even chance unless she lands at least two points clear. State-level projections find Trump more likely than not to flip Wisconsin (just), Michigan and Pennsylvania (a little further ahead), Nevada (a little further again) and Arizona and Georgia (both about as strong for Trump as North Carolina, which he carried in 2020).
The Economist’s model is still on ice, but its page explaining its methodology is well worth reading. Its charts comparing the predictiveness of its poll-based and “fundamentals” models going back to 1948 are particularly interesting in finding that the latter have the superior record – certainly at predicting the result 150 days out, but even unto election day itself. However, one of its parameters does not seem to me to be quite as fundamental as all that, being a poll-based measure of presidential approval.
The question of polls-versus-fundamentals was the focus of a critique by Nate Silver of the new model developed by FiveThirtyEight, the enterprise formerly synonymous with Silver but now bought out, LucasFilm style, by Disney. Its new incarnation is overseen by G. Elliott Morris, of whom Silver says he is “not a fan”. This was producing remarkably bullish results for Biden up until it was put on ice, which evidently wasn’t persuading too many senior Democrats. As well as criticising a lack of transparency, Silver observes that the model seems to be overwhelmingly favouring fundamentals, despite its supporting data suggesting that fundamentals should in fact be viewed as less predictive than polls. Its thesis, Silver argues, is that – as of July 21 – “Joe Biden is a reasonably clear favorite to win the popular vote because he’s an incumbent, and it’s too early to really update that assumption based on the polling or anything else”.
sprocket, yeah, Harris will need to hit the right talking points. But! I disagree with Carville. In the US, for me, it really is about the vibe (stupid). It explains Trumpmania. It explains the billions that go into marketing. People love brands. They love belonging. They fall for schtick and confidence. Bill Clinton didnt win because of the economy. He won because he played the saxophone – even (especially) when he was talking.
So, what was the vibe of Harris at the rally? Is Sandman right?
The current trajectory is looking good and the ‘weird’ messaging is devastatingly effective
TK
You are right about the vibe.
But popular TV series which go for one (or two) seasons too long, end up tanking with viewers fleeing.
As for the vibe at the Atlanta rally, this from the NYTimes…
Vice President Kamala Harris challenged former President Donald J. Trump to commit to a presidential debate on Tuesday night during a raucous rally in Atlanta that featured some 10,000 attendees, celebrity appearances and another rare feature of Democrats’ rallies lately: fun.
In a roughly 21-minute speech, Ms. Harris, now just nine days into her position atop the Democratic ticket, contrasted her policy goals with Republicans’ agenda. But the high point of her remarks came toward the end, when she mentioned the former president’s reluctance to commit to a matchup he had initially agreed to on Sept. 10, when President Biden was still his opponent.
“Well Donald, I do hope you’ll reconsider to meet me on the debate stage,” she said, as the cheers grew louder. She appeared to savor the delivery of the next line, drawing it out for maximum effect: “Because as the saying goes, ‘If you’ve got something to say, say it to my face.’”
The crowd exploded.
At another moment, as Ms. Harris contrasted her record as a former prosecutor with Mr. Trump’s felony convictions, supporters chanted “Lock him up!” — a twist on the chants of “Lock her up” that first broke out at Mr. Trump’s rallies in 2016, aimed at the then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07/30/us/harris-trump-election
[‘Kamala Harris is in the thick of choosing a vice presidential running mate, with her campaign eying an announcement in the coming days that would be immediately followed by a joint tour of a series of battleground states.
Harris, abruptly thrust into the role of presidential candidate fewer than 10 days ago, has been studying notebooks filled with information about each of the top vice presidential contenders, has had preliminary conversations with some of those candidates, and has been asking close advisers involved in the process who would make the strongest governing partner for her at the White House, sources familiar with the process said.
Harris has not yet conducted formal interviews with the top contenders, one source familiar told CNN. That process is expected to begin this week.
Meanwhile, her team – working on an extraordinarily condensed timeline in the aftermath of President Joe Biden abruptly abandoning his reelection campaign just a little over 3 months out from Election Day – has been swiftly researching and testing out the top candidates, including by studying videos of those being vetted.
Among the top contenders include Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper has taken himself out of the running and declined the campaign’s request to be vetted, CNN reported Monday. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear are also still in conversation, but people close to the process believe they are not top contenders.
Eric Holder, the former attorney general, is leading a vetting team of a few dozen Democratic lawyers who are poring over financial records and family histories of the contenders. Tony West, a former associate attorney general and Harris’ brother-in-law, is also playing a leading advisory role in the search process.
As is typical in vice presidential searches, the Harris campaign has been intently focused on who could help strengthen the Harris ticket’s electoral chances. Polling has been conducted of how at least some candidates, particularly Shapiro and Kelly, could influence the race in battleground states.’] – CNN
I wonder why Cooper declined to be vetted. Anyway, it’s clear that
Vance’s scrutiny had big holes in it. He’s now the subject of ridicule, which is not an ideal place to be in. My pick is now Kelly (Arizona,11 ECV), followed closely by Shaprio (Penn 19 ECV).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Cn8ymbyn_A
I feel that if the Harris campaign looks outside of the Midwest for a VP pick they run the risk of falling into the same trap the 2016 Clinton campaign fell into.
They got greedy and took their eye of the clearest and easiest pathway to victory. You can lose 1 Midwest sate, but not two. With only a few days to their own self imposed deadline to pick the VP, I dont think these early green shoot polls in the Midwest are enough to make me consider someone outside of Shapiro or maybe Tim Walz at a stretch.
Mavis
“Under the state constitution, North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who is the GOP’s nominee to replace the term-limited Cooper, becomes acting governor and can assume the Democrat’s powers when he travels out of state. Cooper, according to two of the people, has expressed concern about what Robinson might do if he were to leave the state extensively for campaign travel. ”
https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/nc-gov-cooper-opted-harris-vp-vetting-part-112387433
Robinson is Koozebane GOP. Cooper, with only 2 years left, has been dogged in fighting the NC GOP during his tenure. The GOP there are deep red, anti democracy peeps in a purple state. So for me, this makes sense.
Plus, I reckon, he would be high on the billing for Dem POTUS candidate next time round.
Mavis
Also, Cooper has long been angling for a Senate seat which is up in 2026.
Given he has never lost an election in NC at any level, it probably seems a better career path
Wow, some heartening polls in the swing states from Bloomberg/Morning Consult.
Arizona: 49-47 to Harris (+2)
Georgia: 47-47 (Tied)
Michigan: 53-42 to Harris (+11)!
Nevada: 47-45 to Harris (+2)
Wisconsin: 49-47 to Harris (+2)
North Carolina: 48-46 to Trump (+2)
Pennsylvania: 50-46 to Trump (+4)
Not taking it entirely seriously because I find it hard to believe that Harris is +11 in Michigan and -4 in Pennsylvania, but these are numbers we need to be seeing for her to have a chance in November.
These are honeymoon polls for Harris. She’ll get a bounce through to the DNC. But there’s ample time after that to show the world who she really is: a tokenistic DEI candidate who’s the product of Democratic wokedom. The Left were similarly hopeful when Gillard called a spill which resulted in Rudd’s exhumation in 2013. The same result will happen on a grander scale in America.
”
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 8:48 am
FUBAR @ #20 Wednesday, July 31st, 2024 – 8:36 am
“WASHINGTON—The Heritage Foundation official who leads Project 2025, the conservative road map for the next Republican administration, is stepping down after former President Donald Trump and his aides publicly criticized the group”
https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/project-2025-head-steps-down-89cba52b?st=bxun30sykagtmwq&reflink=article_copyURL_share
This is my surprised face that it didn’t make it into the morning roundup.
Thought you guys would like it.
It shows the Trump campaign is running away from Project 2025. Before the election. Though that doesn’t mean they have repudiated Project 2025 itself. Just found a sacrificial lamb.
”
Like Liberal party pretends about IPA.
Thanks for the info on Cooper, TK & Sprocket.
Are they tho? Isnt a honeymoon period meant to be for post election? So, maybe engagement party polling?
And isnt this meant to be Trumps “honeymoon” polling period after doing well in the debate, being shot at and then the convention and VP announcement?
And… werent we told that changing candidates this late had downsides to Dem polling?
Summation; WTFK? Time will tell. But I wouldnt be downplaying the polling atm based on some idea of honeymoons. And the DNC shouldnt be resting on any laurels either.
You’re a bad man, Mavis.
Nicholas Nehamas
July 30, 2024, 9:17 p.m. ET11 minutes ago
Nicholas Nehamas
The Democratic National Committee said that its delegates will hold a virtual roll call starting Aug. 1 and ending Aug. 5 to select Vice President Kamala Harris as the party’s nominee. Harris was the only candidate who qualified for the ballot, the D.N.C. said.
“Isnt a honeymoon period meant to be for post election?”
If, through some act of God, Harris actually wins, her honeymoon post election will be breathtakingly short. In fact, she will be in double digit negative approval by the beginning of their spring 2025. And from 2028, the US will have a MAGA Republican administration for the next forty years.
Of course, she will never win.
Late Riser:
Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 11:27 am
[‘You’re a bad man, Mavis’]
I know but can’t help myself.
MelbourneMammoth @ #67 Wednesday, July 31st, 2024 – 11:31 am
Racist sexist bigot. 😐
Here’s the full Atlanta Harris rally:
https://www.youtube.com/live/7g1nLZiUNps?si=SVd4DEgEJOz-qHfv
Trump has no hope.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g1nLZiUNps
Weird that Echelon (highly rated pollster) is dropping all these polls taken from 3-4 weeks ago. Maybe they held them back bc of the shooting?
Something in them for Victoria. He wasnt doing too terribly.
frednk: Trump doesn’t need hope to win. He only needs fear and ignorance, which he has in abundance.
Keep telling yourself that MelbourneMammoth. You are one weird person.
This agenda for Harris and the VP next week would have killed Joe Biden – and Trump is unable to keep up such a program. The Harris team might need to resurrect Obama’s barnstorming bus.
July 30, 2024, 9:37 p.m. ET11 minutes ago
Katie Rogers
Vice President Kamala Harris has not settled on a running mate yet, but according to a campaign official, the pair will have a busy schedule once that person is announced. Next week, they are set to visit Philadelphia, western Wisconsin, Detroit, Raleigh, Savannah, Phoenix and Las Vegas.
I see North Carolina has been added to Harris swing state tour
sprocket_ @ #77 Wednesday, July 31st, 2024 – 11:51 am
All part of the plan to show the gormless golfing goon up for the out of puff decrepit old man that he is. 🙂
This is my theoretical map for 2024. Not necessarily where the final vote will land, but the map I would put the hardest campaign effort into. I oddly have concerns about Arizona, I think that’ll be closer than people reckon.
Trump has no hope
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7R3AAjJTRII
MelbourneMammoth says:
Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 11:44 am
frednk: Trump doesn’t need hope to win. He only needs fear and ignorance, which he has in abundance.
That is so yesterday. The dark clouds are lifting. USA wants to fell good about itself. That is not what Trump offers.
Reading the tea leaves of the VP choice
July 30, 2024, 10:00 p.m. ET3 minutes ago
Reid J. Epstein
Philadelphia next Tuesday is the first stop for Harris and whoever she picks as her running mate, but it is not necessarily a sign she has settled on Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania — a native of the Philly suburbs. Philadelphia is the biggest city in the largest battleground state, and happens to be within an easy train ride from both New York and Washington, the home bases for much of the national news media.
Reid J. Epstein
July 30, 2024, 10:00 p.m. ET3 minutes ago
Harris’s second stop next week will be in western Wisconsin, a part of the state that gets Minneapolis television and a place where voters have long been familiar with Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, who is also considered one of Harris’s leading options for a running mate.
MostlyInterested: The Democrats are more likely to retain Michigan than any of the other so-called swing states. Much more likely than Arizona.
Melbourne mammoth I don’t know why I’m gonna speak to you but I’m gonna say something Trump had no honeymoon period after he was elected and after he got shot
I agree with MelbourneMammoth (on this one point only!). Michigan more likely for Harris than Arizona, Nevada and even Pennsylvania. Doesn’t give her 270 if she gets Michigan and not Pennsylvania. Recent polls are encouraging though, for not only the rust belt but a few sun belt states too.
Tim Walz was “defund the police” adjacent. He’s a good communicator, but would allow Trump to bring up all that 2020 stuff again.
Shapiro or Kelly for mine. Each has their pluses and minuses
Quentin Rountree @ #84 Wednesday, July 31st, 2024 – 11:54 am
MM’s posts are 95% trolling and 5% worth reading/replying to. Cut and paste the 5% and reply while ignoring the 95%.
BTW, Ven. Re Trump’s “Christians you won’t need to vote again.” I reckon Trump deliberately says this sort of thing to stir up his opponents.
The only serious bit is that, because it’s 150 per cent all about him, he literally couldn’t care less what happens in the election of 2028 and beyond. He doesn’t give a toss about the future of the Republican Party. For him, it’s simply the Trump Party. He’d love it if Don jr could become the nominee in 2028, but I think he realises that that is unlikely to happen.
meher baba @ #87 Wednesday, July 31st, 2024 – 12:27 pm
meher baba,
Could you please check yourself, before you wreck yourself? I don’t know where you pulled that, ‘defund the police adjacent’ crap from, but the facts are these:
MINNEAPOLIS — A new attack ad by the Republican Governor’s Association falsely claims Minnesota Governor Tim Walz wanted to strip funding from police.
The fact is, Walz increased funding for law enforcement twice and came out against the controversial Minneapolis city ballot question defeated by voters last year. The governor lobbied for $300 million in extra police funding this year.
The ad begins by reminding voters violent crime has spiked, and, like many GOP ads, blames Walz for that. But then the ad makes a statement that is patently false.
“But what is Governor Tim Walz’s response? He pushed to defund our police,” the female narrator can be heard saying.
The fine print at that point in the ad points to a Minneapolis Star Tribune article from June 12, 2020. That article simply said the governor has proposed a wide-ranging list of police reforms he wanted lawmakers to consider in the first special session after George Floyd was murdered by Minneapolis Police Officer Derek Chauvin.
“The commitment across the spectrum, both political, racial, economic, for change is undeniable,” Walz told reporters two days earlier.
DFL lawmakers appeared with Walz at a press conference calling for two dozen changes governing police, while Senate Republicans urged caution in the face of the worldwide reaction to the video of Floyd’s death captured by bystanders.
After negotiations that ran throughout the summer, Walz signed a bipartisan package of police reforms but none of them stripped funding from police. The bill, a compromise between House Democrats and Senate Republicans, barred choke holds, required more training in de-escalation methods, and created a statewide database to track use of force by officers.
https://www.kare11.com/article/news/politics/republican-ad-makes-false-claim-gov-tim-walz-record-minnesota-politics/89-1dcdfca8-d789-48bc-a4fb-c10cc6cbed01
Yeah, definitely agree with the above commentators. Michigan is a much easier lift for the Harris than Arizona. I’d keep my eye on North Carolina this year, as their candidate for Governor is really out there, makes Vance and co look sane. It maybe easier to win than GA this year.
Also, I really don’t want to be relying on Nebraska’s 2nd CD. It will be a while before there’s any reliable polling there, but I’m hoping any loss of that district is offset by winning both of Maine’s CD’s.
I talked very recently to 3 Republican women (white) in their 50’s across 3 states (1 in a swing state). Christian, regular church going, Pro Life.
All 3 not voting Trump. 2 did last time (including the one in the swing state). Pro Life but can see the harm that has been done by the states that have introduced too restrictive abortion laws. All 3 say that they they can’t be in for “government staying out of people’s lives” then vote for government controlling women’s bodies to the extent of 6 week abortion bans.
1 will vote Harris. 2 definitely not Trump maybe Kennedy (one of those is the swing state voter so 1 vote down for Trump from 2020 in that state).
Very small focus group of course but interesting to talk and listen to them. Would probably be cast out as RINO’s but could not be further from the truth.
From a wider group of Republican woman that I talked to over the past 4 months that covered 8 states there is a pretty strong Morrison effect that is happening. Trumps bad points are now reaching a tipping point. I got the same vibe here in the 2022 election. The over 60’s white women more likely to hold their nose still. The under 60s are all thinking heavily about it. It is their daughters who are in the firing line of extreme laws.
Harris just needs to keep to today’s rally talking points to hopefully bring those type of voters over the line.
Anyway just some observations from being in the US and talking about it at varying levels of depth.
Thanks for your on-the-ground insights, parkySP. Much appreciated. Sounds like the demographic in Red States who keep voting against restrictive abortion controls.
Wheels falling off.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/30/jd-vance-project-2025-book-foreword
Ha. A CNN anchor suggesting that if Trump keeps deliberately mispronouncing Harris’ name then peeps might like to call him Don-old.
The leader of Hamas has just been assassinated in Iran, vindicating Benjamin Netanyahu’s actions of the past year.
Long live Israel!
MelbourneMammoth @ #93 Wednesday, July 31st, 2024 – 1:12 pm
or the exact opposite of “vindicating”
Due to Trump’s grip on the GOP, and save for a few brave ones (eg, Chaney & Romney), if the cult leader falls on his sword, what does the cult do? I predict it will be in a shambles for some time to come.
The only problem with your claim is that very little of the IPA agenda has even attempted to be legislated, let alone actually be implemented. The failure rate is so high as to make any claims of significant influence by the IPA over the LNP a joke. This is a statistically based site and the statistics don’t lie.
Has cat ladies become this election’s deplorables?
Mavis @ #95 Wednesday, July 31st, 2024 – 1:15 pm
This is what makes them so dangerous. To themselves and the USA. So heavily entwined is their identity (their values, and their self of selfworth) with Trump, Trump losing is a strong blow to them. A physical, mental and emotional blow. Many wont get beyond stage 2 of their grief.
c@t: “meher baba,
Could you please check yourself, before you wreck yourself? I don’t know where you pulled that, ‘defund the police adjacent’ crap from, but the facts are these:”
———————————————————————————-
What you have posted corresponds with what I mean by “adjacent.”
Yes, he didn’t vote for an extreme Minneapolis city resolution to defund the police entirely. Of course he didn’t: it would have been political suicide for him to support this.
But he did back a range of rather vague proposals to divert money from the police towards “community-led public safety” initiatives that would use social workers rather than police to attempt to reduce crime levels. Perhaps fortunately for him now, the proposal didn’t get through the Minnesota congress.
Because George Floyd was killed in Minneapolis, Walz came under enormous pressure to take steps towards “defunding the police” from the Democrat left (to which he effectively belongs). I’m sure he personally didn’t support the idea and was doing what he could to turn down the heat. But, whatever his intentions, he was definitely caught up in it all, and that will provide an opportunity for Trump to beat him over the head with it. And it probably doesn’t help that Harris was a little adjacent too: albeit only for a comparatively brief period.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/news/content/ar-BB1qqZoK?ocid=BingNewsSerp
There was so much wrong with all the “defund the police” crap, but one of the worst things about it is that a significant proportion of black and hispanic voters really hate it. Harris and her VP choice are going to have to do all that they can to avoid being associated with it in the minds of voters. And I think selecting Walz as V-P candidate would make that task a little more difficult.
Shapiro, Kelly or even Buttigieg are all better options for mine.
Dutton’s IPA/MAGA mask will be against the elites while real Dutton@Trump feeds huge sums into the maws of his crony capitalists.