With The Conversation keeping this site’s regular US correspondent busy, a quick post of my own on the US election campaign, and a forum for the discussion thereof. The big news from my perspective is that, after all the noteworthy forecasters closed for refurbishment following Joe Biden’s withdrawal, Nate Silver has lifted the lid on his Harris-versus-Trump model.
The model launches with a 61.3% win probability for Trump and 38.1% for Harris, the balance presumably reflecting the possibility that one candidate or the other doesn’t survive until November. These numbers suggest a model with a judiciously wide zone of uncertainty around projections that superficially look very encouraging for Trump. Silver’s model records an essentially dead head on the national popular vote, and doesn’t credit Harris with a better than even chance unless she lands at least two points clear. State-level projections find Trump more likely than not to flip Wisconsin (just), Michigan and Pennsylvania (a little further ahead), Nevada (a little further again) and Arizona and Georgia (both about as strong for Trump as North Carolina, which he carried in 2020).
The Economist’s model is still on ice, but its page explaining its methodology is well worth reading. Its charts comparing the predictiveness of its poll-based and “fundamentals” models going back to 1948 are particularly interesting in finding that the latter have the superior record – certainly at predicting the result 150 days out, but even unto election day itself. However, one of its parameters does not seem to me to be quite as fundamental as all that, being a poll-based measure of presidential approval.
The question of polls-versus-fundamentals was the focus of a critique by Nate Silver of the new model developed by FiveThirtyEight, the enterprise formerly synonymous with Silver but now bought out, LucasFilm style, by Disney. Its new incarnation is overseen by G. Elliott Morris, of whom Silver says he is “not a fan”. This was producing remarkably bullish results for Biden up until it was put on ice, which evidently wasn’t persuading too many senior Democrats. As well as criticising a lack of transparency, Silver observes that the model seems to be overwhelmingly favouring fundamentals, despite its supporting data suggesting that fundamentals should in fact be viewed as less predictive than polls. Its thesis, Silver argues, is that – as of July 21 – “Joe Biden is a reasonably clear favorite to win the popular vote because he’s an incumbent, and it’s too early to really update that assumption based on the polling or anything else”.
Team Katich @ #949 Tuesday, August 6th, 2024 – 3:56 pm
My point exactly
Pueosays:
Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 11:24 am
In other news, Trump loses arm in Cybertruck “frunk” accident.
Trump says he has ‘no choice’ but to back EVs after Musk endorsement
Ex-president, who previously denigrated electric vehicles, says they are suitable for a ‘small slice’ of the population
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/05/trump-endorses-electric-vehicles-elon-musk
===================================================
Somethings money can’t buy but the Demented Don is not one of them.
Ven @ #950 Tuesday, August 6th, 2024 – 3:26 pm
Same Simon Rosenberg who told us Biden was going to win no matter what the polls were saying because he knew better?
”
Team Katichsays:
Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 3:56 pm
HUGE NEWS
BIG move
VERY CLOSE
This is why I avoid these partisan sites. They dont just tell you what to think, they scream it at you.
”
TK
That is not partisan article. Forget about headlines. Look at the data regarding polling data and also video with American ABC network.
In 2022 midterm I was the only one on PB, who called from beginning of October 2022 that there won’t be red wave based on numbers from DailyKos. You along with many others were certain that red wave would eventuate, which did not. You quoted the precendence from mid term elections, especially where Democrat is President, that mid-term results were very bad for incumbent President.
”
Mostly Interestedsays:
Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 3:58 pm
Team Katich @ #949 Tuesday, August 6th, 2024 – 3:56 pm
HUGE NEWS
BIG move
VERY CLOSE
This is why I avoid these partisan sites. They dont just tell you what to think, they scream it at you.
My point exactly
”
MI
Your troll here.
Read my post @4:06 pm.
You all want to do is put hands on your eyes and say na na na na na…
Ask an longtime posters like C@tmomma whether I posted any partisan articles from dailykos, which is based on speculation.
‘Mostly Interested says:
Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 3:45 pm
Boerwar @ #945 Tuesday, August 6th, 2024 – 3:42 pm
Simply not true, IMO.
It assumes that nobody at akk will be making up their mind now.
There are many undecided voters. There are many voters who are, further, undecided about whether to bother to turn out at all. Some of those will be making up their minds sooner. Some later. Some possibly never.
I dont know where these undecided voters are getting their information, but this stuff saturates the whole media landscape. From what I can see the change in voter support and intention has come solely from Biden stepping down, and Harris’ energy in campaigning. Puff pieces that say things like “Trump, he nasty” wont swing any voters in that country.’
———————–
There are undecided voters. The notion that it is better not to target them with anything is risible.
”
ScromoIIsays:
Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 1:28 pm
It would be interesting how high the Kamala wave gets to. Current polls still have old polling in their averages and the DNC is yet to come. Also whether Harris can maintain her lead afterwards is anyone’s guess. There may be another black Swan event.
A lead nationally of 3 points as the polls say now is not enough; Trump would still win the electoral college.
Besides, polls almost always understate the more conservative side. I would venture to say that even if Kamala Harris was ahead nationally by 6 points in the polls and by 5 points in MI, WI and PA the day before the election, she would still have no more than a 50-50 chance of winning the electoral college.
”
TK and MI
Now this post is pure speculation that doesn’t take into account 2018, 2020 and 2022 elections, which Trump and Republicans lost.
In 2018 mid term election, Republicans lost US House
In 2020 election, Democrats won Presidency, House and Senate
Senate
In 2022 mid term election, instead of red wave, Republicans limped over the line in House and Democrats won clear majority in Senate.
And who was central figure in all 3 elections?
TRUMP!
HUGE LIES
Ven MAKES STUFF UP.
Ven LOSES CREDIBILITY
That is a partisan article – they headline says it all. It introduces the data with a ‘heres what you must think about the following’. It is a huge turnoff. SkyNews use the same technique.
If I want the detail I go to the source. The poll itself is easy to access without the guff from DailyKos.
As for 2022, The GOP won the House. As aggregators predicted. The poll aggregators were pretty close to the actual popular vote. The margin was a little smaller than predicted. I certainly never said there was a red wave. Neither did the aggregators. That was a media thing either looking for clicks or biased – see above critique of DailyKos. I certainly wasnt falling for it.
Where the polls failed was in a couple of state senate races. Which I remember and still post about when reading the current set of polls in those states.
I have ALWAYS argued that polling aggregators avoid using partisan polls and avoid unidentified startup polls and avoid relying too heavily on one or two pollsters in state races.
”
Team Katichsays:
Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 4:00 pm
Ven @ #950 Tuesday, August 6th, 2024 – 3:26 pm
Simon Rosenberg: If what happened in last 2 weeks as a script to a TV network, it would have been rejected as “outlandish”.
Same Simon Rosenberg who told us Biden was going to win no matter what the polls were saying because he knew better?
”
The same Simon Rosenberg who got 2022 mid term election right, where he predicted based on polling data and actual pre poll voting data that there won’t be a “Red wave”
Pueo: “It can’t be too obscure if you recognised it…”
——————————————————————————
Well sort of. I recognised the song from the Simon and Garfunkel version. I wasn’t aware that Wings had covered it.
By the time Wings Over America came out in 1976, my attitude was such that I would only have purchased a copy for the purposes of pissing on it. I had bought a copy of Band on the Run, for which I can only provide the excuse that I was 14 years old at the time. By 1976 I was in the process of transitioning from heavy metal to punk and occasionally hanging outside the Oxford Tavern in Taylor Square to hear Radio Birdman. (They were generally sufficiently loud enough that there was never a need to try to go in and mingle with their extremely scary biker fans. And I was under age.)
Back then, Wings just seemed like the most middle of the road music imaginable bar Mantovani and his Singing Strings. I remember once reading a quote from Pete Townshend of the Who which went something like “I’m not sure exactly what it was that Paul McCartney was doing, but it sure as hell wasn’t rock and roll.”
”
“I’m for electric cars, I have to be because Elon endorsed me very strongly,” Trump, the Republican nominee for US president, told supporters at a rally in Atlanta, Georgia, on Saturday.
”
Read and weep. This is the person, who could guide world fate if he gets his way in November, 2024.
Ven, Simon Rosenberg was DailyKos’ Comical Ali. The New Yorker tore him a new one.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope
”
YaramahZsays:
Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 2:32 pm
I find it curious that people seem so confident that Trump has an inbuilt advantage with electoral college. Even by 5-points! I know what happened in 2016 and 2020, but I remember Democrats thinking they had an electoral college advantage after 2008 and 2012 elections. Then it was Colorado, the tipping point state in the 2012 election, which was, oddly enough, about 5-points more Democratic than the final margin. How ephemerate that turned out to be. So I wouldn’t be so hasty to assume that Trump could lose the national vote by a large margin and still be favoured to win the electoral college. There just aren’t enough data points to be confident in that outcome.
If I digress, I’d actually love to see the Democrats win the Presidency but lose the national popular vote. Not in this election but a future one. Then there might be the political will to abolish the electoral college once and for all.
”
Yaramah
In the 2022 mid term election, Democrats lost the National votr in both House and Senate but still lost House by 20 seats and won Senate Majority.
If House Democrates had won 6 more seats they would have won House after losing national vote.
National vote:
Republicans: 50.6%
Democrats: 47.8%
Ven we are all, mostly, on the same side here. My preference for polling media is staid dull statistical analysis without the hype or punditry.
”
Team Katichsays:
Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 4:25 pm
You along with many others were certain that red wave would eventuate
HUGE LIES
Ven MAKES STUFF UP.
Ven LOSES CREDIBILITY
That is a partisan article – they headline says it all. It introduces the data with a ‘heres what you must think about the following’. It is a huge turnoff. SkyNews use the same technique.
”
Tell me what is wrong with the way the data is presented in the article
instead of saying “you are wrong”, “I am right”. What is incorrect in the article?
I clearly remember on 2022 election day, you were very apprehensive regarding election results that red wave may eventuate.
It appears a lot of people, atleast on this site, that they are scarred by 2016 result and look at 2018, 2020 and 2022 results through that lense, which is understable.
I am one of the posters, who had been critical about US political system and judicial system atleast since 2010. (I was admonished by BW and C@tmomma for such posts) I was also very critical of Biden. As soon as I started seeing Debate, I know that debate was “gamechanger” unlike previous debate because Biden was awful. And was even more critical of Biden than before. So I am not a blind Biden or Democrat supporter.
But from my under-graduate I was trained to look at data and analyse it to become engineer. I was always interested in data and that is the reason I got interested with PB(recently, things got a bit more ugly but that is another story)
Centre and othets, who discussed stock market crash and recession.
Fox News host admits the economy isn’t all doom and gloom
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/5/2260894/-Fox-News-host-admits-the-economy-isn-t-all-doom-and-gloom?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
“The stock market took a hit Monday, with the Dow Jones Index closing 612 points lower on the heels of an unexpected jump in the unemployment rate and rising fear of a recession. The unfortunate news was met with glee from the GOP. The gloating started at the top of the Republican ticket, with Donald Trump attempting to pin the blame for the drop on Vice President Kamala Harris, proclaiming a “KAMALA CRASH” on his struggling social media site.
Conservative media and pundits predictably jumped on the fearmongering bandwagon to predict that Monday’s stock market numbers are a harbinger of recessions to come. But one Fox News personality bucked the trend.”
““The Donald Trump thing in the market amazes me,” Fox News’ Neil Cavuto said on his show, Monday. “When they’re up, it’s all because of him, and looking forward to him. When they’re down, it’s all because [of] the Democrats, and how horrific they are. Some of our biggest point falloffs, three of the biggest of the top 10, occurred during his administration.”
Walz on FIRE: “Make that B*stard Know a Black Woman Kicked His Ass”
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/5/2260981/-Walz-Make-that-B-st-rd-Know-a-Black-Woman-Kicked-His?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
“Appearing on the White Dudes for Harris zoom call, Governor Walz was on fire, saying “make that bastard wake up afterwards and know that a Black woman kicked his ass and sent him on the road. And you know that is something that guy is going to have to live with for the rest of his life.”
“Oddsmakers now consider Governor Walz the favorite to be named the vice presidential running mate.
The betting markets see him as the significant favorite, reversing the lead Governor Shapiro had held for the past week.
In the graph below, Shapiro held a significant lead all week.
Today’s Odds
Then today, about 6PM Eastern, Shapiro’s odds collapsed, falling from a high of 70 to 40, while Walz’s odds shot up from 39 to 62. What would account for this sudden and dramatic shift: perhaps critical information on the assignment of security and the arrangement of transportation and accommodations. What ever it is, oddsmakers have enough confidence in the information to shift the market. Stay tuned. We’ll find out tomorrow.
Ven
From memory the national popular vote (NPV) from 2022 included a bunch of seats where the Republican was running uncontested. But your point stands, the Democrats did outperform the polls (both in votes and in actual seats) in 2022 and could quite conceivably do so again in 2024. And that could diminish any advantage Trump may have in the electoral college.
TK
Yeah, the aggregators were mostly correct in 2022, slightly over-predicting the number of seats the Republicans would win. It was predominantly a media narrative that there would be a Red Wave. The NY Times led the way there, with some truly horrendous analysis of some polls. One where they had the Democrat ahead and were spinning it as a negative for them! Nate Silver called them out on it, if I recall correctly.
‘Trump’s desperate stunt instantly falls apart’:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yN56i2Vb9Mc
Mostly Interested & TK are warned & should accordingly use their
scroll bar.
”
Ven@4:36 pm
Yaramah
In the 2022 mid term election, Democrats lost the National votr in both House and Senate but still lost House by 20 seats and won Senate Majority
”
Oops!. i should be
In the 2022 mid term election, Democrats lost the National votr in both House and Senate but still lost House by 9 seats only and won Senate Majority
The time it’s taking to name Walz, i’m thinking he’s the real candidate.
Forget which post turtle brings what State, there are close to 60,000,000 Americans with German ancestry.
ATM, Trump’s got a lock on them, because he’s German on his dad’s side and Scandi on his mothers.
Ron Paul [100% German] woulda been President, imo, but wasn’t allowed to progress in 2012.
So, this is the plan, run Walz to take votes off Trump, win, do a Biden on Harris in 2028.
This reinforces my point from this morning about the far left’s antisemitic discriminatory plays against Shapiro. Imagine saying that a person’s religious or cultural identity should disqualify them from running for office. Because that is pretty much what the far left is saying about Shapiro’s VP nomination.
https://x.com/DonnyDeutsch/status/1820570595605581922
The reality is that it is moderates in a handful of states who will decide this election, not the MAGA far right, and not the socialist far left. Harris should pick the candidate who best balances out the ticket, and in my view that is Shapiro. Bonus is that he has the approval of a majority of voters in PA, a must-win state for Harris.
I wish I knew Walz had become the favoured one before placing a not-insubstantial bet on Shapiro. I should have consulted my clairvoyant. A fortnight or so ago, she told me to be prepared for a big event: Trump was going to do a 180-degree turnaround, with the implied prediction that he was going to drop out of the race once it became obvious he couldn’t win. He’ll then do a plea deal. I wonder if Sports Bet will offer odds on that scenario(?).
I’ve seen more clips of Tim Walz today and I like what I’ve seen. He’s got a good sense of humour, he’s as about as “blokey” as an American can get. He has fun with his kids and comes across as a “dorky dad”, has a good “gift of the gab” so to say, and has a very good legislative record as Governor.
And was one of the first to endorse the new “Republicans are weird” trope that the right so hate over there. And he explained it so well in a simple manner, something like “I mean normal people like to play with their dogs, we throw a frisbee out in the park and when he fetches it, you pet him and rub his belly because he’s a good boy. You don’t see those guys doing things like that.”
Also very clever in him raising that analogy because Trump himself hates dogs and most other animals.
Yeah, bad luck on Shapiro.
Walz was the obvious pick when Gretchen Whitmer declined, and Trump had picked Vance.
That threw the Democrats, since Vance has appeal to Anglo descended Americans plus Appalachia.
Obviously Harris will get overwhelming Black voter support, but likely low turnout.
So the had to pull a rabbit outta the hat, and that’s Walz.
Tell me what is wrong with the way the data is presented in the article
instead of saying “you are wrong”, “I am right”.
———————————
I never said you were wrong. I merely pointed out I avoid “news” website with OTT bias – like DailyKos.
I alluded to Rosenberg being wrong. But the anti Rosenberg train is crammed with people who’d figured that out way before I did.
Oh, yes, I did say you were wrong…. to accuse me of predicting a red wave in 2022. And I did so wrapped in a DailyKos style headline for humorous effect.
I’m still pretty chuffed with myself for it actually.
Team Katich:
Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 6:59 pm
[In response to Ven]
[‘I never said you were wrong. I merely pointed out I avoid “news” website with OTT bias – like DailyKos.’]
That’s your right but please don’t attempt to foist your opinions on others. Or if you are thus disposed, do it once & that should be the end of the matter. Ditto Mostly Interested.
The announcement hasn’t been made wrt Tim Walz yet, afaik. But the appearance of the Black Chevy Escalades outside his house suggests something. It’s not nothing.
Also, I reckon that, if it’s him then his sense of humour would have endeared him to Kamala Harris, who is also a happy warrior, and a complete contrast to the truly ‘nasty’ Trump/Vance team.
Harris is known for being nasty to subordinates and having high staff turnover.
Trump is known for his kindness to animals, more pro animal legislation signed into law than any other President, I believe.
Yet animals haven’t been so kind to Trump.
And we have a new Tier 1 poll – on the VP plus some favourability ratings
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-harris-veepstakes/
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/NPR_PBS-News_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_Candidate-Favorability_202408050954.pdf
71% have never heard of Tim Walz….
Criteria for choice of running mate (according to this NBC article):
I am astonished that Kamala Harris is going to pick Walz rather than Shapiro.
Walz is a Minnesotan, and if she needs to do this as a move to shore up Minnesota, she is definitely not confident about winning the states that she needs to win, eg Pennsylvania.
Walz looks like a pale imitation of John Howard – a defensive, timid play to ensure that her team is “conservative enough” to be viable for Middle America.
Favourability ratings from Sprocket’s article:
ScromoII @ #985 Tuesday, August 6th, 2024 – 7:53 pm
Walz is not a “conservative”. He signed into statewide law that all schoolchildren are entitled to free lunches as one example. No means-testing as the usual “conservative” lot over there insist on.
https://minnesotareformer.com/2024/01/10/walz-celebrates-first-months-of-universal-free-school-meals/
Sorry, I mean Mark Kelly from Arizona, not Mike Kelly the retired Australian politician, got the names mixed up there.
Kirsdarke says:
Tuesday, August 6, 2024 at 7:55 pm
Favourability ratings from Sprocket’s article:
Mike Kelly (D-AZ) 31% Favorable, 18% Unfavorable, 52% Unknown (+13)
Josh Shapiro (D-PA) 25% Favorable, 23% Unfavorable, 53% Unknown (+2)
Tim Walz (D-MN) 17% Favorable, 12% Unfavorable, 71% Unknown (+5)
J.D. Vance (R-OH) 28% Favorable, 43% Unfavorable, 23% Unknown (-15)
Kamala Harris (D-CA) 46% Favorable, 48% Unfavorable, 6% Unknown (-2)
Donald Trump (R-FL) 44% Favorable, 53% Unfavorable, 3% Unknown (-9)
___________
Looking at upside value, Kelly and Walz are goers. Will Harris tango with Walz? We shall see.
Badthinker: “ATM, Trump’s got a lock on them, because he’s German on his dad’s side and Scandi on his mothers.”
—————————————————————————–
Trump’s mother was a Scot from the Outer Hebrides. I knew that because she came from the same village as a friend of mine.
Are you incapable of getting factual information right? Believe me, Wikipedia can be an enormous help. You should try using it before you post. Saves embarrassment.
Kirsdarke @ #988 Tuesday, August 6th, 2024 – 7:57 pm
Yes, it was a weird comment by ScromoII. Just because Tim Walz looks like John Howard doesn’t mean his politics are the same.
meher baba @ #991 Tuesday, August 6th, 2024 – 8:21 pm
Badthinker simply pulls his posts out of various RW rabbit holes.
Tim Walz (D-MN) 17% Favorable, 12% Unfavorable, 71% Unknown (+5)
Lots of upside there. 🙂
The first domino has fallen in Arizona. One of the fake elector defendants has flipped…
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/4/2260700/-The-First-Domino-has-fallen-in-Arizona-One-of-the-fake-elector-defendants-has-flipped?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
“The first one to flip in the Arizona fake electors criminal case has just done so.
In an interview on the Sunday morning politics show Sunday Square Off, Arizona AG Mayes revealed (at the 7 minute 25 second mark) that significant news will be forthcoming “early next week” about a defendant in the AZ fake electors case that has agreed to take a plea deal and cooperate.
UPDATE: I guessed correctly. Ellis has pled guilty.
HOLY MOLY. She got ALL her charges dismissed and not even a single guilty plea for the least severe charge. That usually means her cooperation will absolutely BURY someone else. And just a reminder.
To refresh everyone’s memory.
Count 1 of the indictment is the charge of CONSPIRACY. She was neck deep in all the actions.
So Ellis just walked away with the valuable prize of going from an indicted co-conspirator to a formerly indicted co-conspirator.
Superseding indictment incoming………
UPDATE 2: Here is a copy of the cooperation agreement.
Oh, to be a fly on the wall of that interview…
“Jenna Ellis affirms that her statements to the Arizona Attorney General’s Office on June 17, 2024, were truthful, honest, candid, and complete with no knowing material false statements or omissions.”
c@tmomma: “The announcement hasn’t been made wrt Tim Walz yet, afaik. But the appearance of the Black Chevy Escalades outside his house suggests something. It’s not nothing.”
——————————————————————————–
I don’t think it “suggests” anything.
Either they are Secret Service vehicles, which means Walz is the pick, or they are not, which means that they are “nothing” in terms of providing any evidence one way or the other as to whom the pick might be.
Walz’s office is saying that they were vehicles belonging to his security detail which were present in numbers because he was holding a fund-raising event at his house. But that could just be a cover story, although some observers say they had Minnesota number plates rather than Federal ones.
I don’t think anyone really knows anything and we are going to have to wait for the announcement.
This ad from Harris is being lauded by anti-Trump Republicans. Finally, they say, Democrats have gotten the message on the border to take the fight up to the GOP.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hamD7RueuvA&ab_channel=KamalaHarris
Also Minnesota is not a solid “blue” state in the way that Massachusetts is, but it’s a fairly purple one. It only has that reputation because it was the only state that Walter Mondale was able to win in the 1984 landslide election where Ronald Reagan won every one of the 49 other states.
It’s a “purple” state and could flip in any election, so the Democrats there know how to fight hard. In fact it took several months in the 2008 election to certify that Al Franken won the Senate election there. And to this day they officially call themselves the “Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party” on the ballot paper.
Tim Walz is no exception to this, and could be key for swing voters unsure about voting for a mixed-race woman from California as President.
Kirsdarke @ #998 Tuesday, August 6th, 2024 – 8:43 pm
Yes, I believe he will have broad appeal in the Mid West generally. Put him up at a bbq or a fish fry and watch him go!
I confess I’ve never heard of Tim Walz, and neither has most of America, so if he is Kamala’s choice for VP, they’re going to need a big introduction campaign in states other than Minnesotta.
If Josh Shapiro has missed out on the gig because of his Jewishness and how it might offend American Muslims in Michigan, that signals a rather sad state of affairs.
Perhaps the Harris camp think Pennsylvania is in the bag already or they don’t need to worry about it too much, hence why she is apparently giving the VP spot to Tim Walz?
I confess, I’m a little disappointed she supposedly hasn’t opted for Pete Buttigieg as a running mate, that I think would have been a dynamic ticket, and the homophobes in America are probably all MAGA people anyway, so that aspect wouldn’t have mattered surely.
I’m sure Pete Buttigieg probably will have the job of media surrogate for the campaign, along with spruiking transport and infastructure projects as Transportation Secretary. The man is a terrific communicator.
Go the Walz!!