With The Conversation keeping this site’s regular US correspondent busy, a quick post of my own on the US election campaign, and a forum for the discussion thereof. The big news from my perspective is that, after all the noteworthy forecasters closed for refurbishment following Joe Biden’s withdrawal, Nate Silver has lifted the lid on his Harris-versus-Trump model.
The model launches with a 61.3% win probability for Trump and 38.1% for Harris, the balance presumably reflecting the possibility that one candidate or the other doesn’t survive until November. These numbers suggest a model with a judiciously wide zone of uncertainty around projections that superficially look very encouraging for Trump. Silver’s model records an essentially dead head on the national popular vote, and doesn’t credit Harris with a better than even chance unless she lands at least two points clear. State-level projections find Trump more likely than not to flip Wisconsin (just), Michigan and Pennsylvania (a little further ahead), Nevada (a little further again) and Arizona and Georgia (both about as strong for Trump as North Carolina, which he carried in 2020).
The Economist’s model is still on ice, but its page explaining its methodology is well worth reading. Its charts comparing the predictiveness of its poll-based and “fundamentals” models going back to 1948 are particularly interesting in finding that the latter have the superior record – certainly at predicting the result 150 days out, but even unto election day itself. However, one of its parameters does not seem to me to be quite as fundamental as all that, being a poll-based measure of presidential approval.
The question of polls-versus-fundamentals was the focus of a critique by Nate Silver of the new model developed by FiveThirtyEight, the enterprise formerly synonymous with Silver but now bought out, LucasFilm style, by Disney. Its new incarnation is overseen by G. Elliott Morris, of whom Silver says he is “not a fan”. This was producing remarkably bullish results for Biden up until it was put on ice, which evidently wasn’t persuading too many senior Democrats. As well as criticising a lack of transparency, Silver observes that the model seems to be overwhelmingly favouring fundamentals, despite its supporting data suggesting that fundamentals should in fact be viewed as less predictive than polls. Its thesis, Silver argues, is that – as of July 21 – “Joe Biden is a reasonably clear favorite to win the popular vote because he’s an incumbent, and it’s too early to really update that assumption based on the polling or anything else”.
Walz
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDV6h97asBU
Beshear
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZhgReV26k-s
@Mostly Interested,
Hearing from all 3, I think Walz has the better delivery. Calm and confident. And also probably most suited to be Harris’s running mate.
“Which voters does Shapiro reach that Harris doesn’t?”
Independents and never-Trumpers. Additional Pennsylvanians. Additional white males. Additional white females. Additional jews and their sympathisers.
Bloomberg TV is not your normal GoTo media outlet.
But they have some tub thumping polling out of the swing states tonight…
https://youtu.be/saHZ7xcWveE?si=tw7WnIYuj9RuXOBH
The unhinging BK alluded to the other day.
@Confessions at 7:03pm
Well at least one part of that unhinged post by Trump is true, 57-47 in Michigan is not a possible polling result and I assume it’s a typo for something more like 51-47.
Interesting, and Walz a clear winner. But for me, the test is with the interviews.
If only Mayor Pete could be genuinely in play!
Kirsdarke
They are FAVORABILITY scores, not primaries
sprocket_ @ #159 Wednesday, July 31st, 2024 – 7:16 pm
Ohh, okay, my mistake.
If you can believe those Bloomberg numbers, Shapiro needs to get the VP to shore up the PA vote.
Kirsdarke:
What sprocket said. But then Bloomberg…
https://www.deadlinedetroit.com/articles/32147/bloomberg_news_poll_vp_harris_leads_trump_by_11_percentage_points_in_michigan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRe2f2CCVHY
I hope the song in this ad does this cause better than it did the last time it was used here.
They’re favorability ratings, not people answering “who will you vote for”. They don’t have to add to 100%; the options aren’t mutually exclusive.
Confessions @ #153 Wednesday, July 31st, 2024 – 6:36 pm
You left out the smelly diapers. 😐
Heartening stuff from The Guardian.
It just keeps getting better!
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/31/harris-democrats-swing-states-election
The latest episode of the Ukraine without the Hype podcast has a detailed rundown of J D Vance, his patron Peter Thiele and the bizarre philosophy both follow. I knew Vance was weird, but this lays out in detail just how weird.
https://www.audacy.com/podcast/ukraine-without-hype-bf272/episodes/87-jd-vance-the-far-right-and-ukraine-67c1e
(The Ukraine podcast covered this because obviously Ukraine supporters are concerned about what US policy might be after the election. The news is not happy.)
“Trump’s ENTIRE Project 2025 Expertly SUMMARIZED In 2 Minutes”
(If you want to save time, start at 3:10 into the video)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CPJsQf4gtM
Socratessays:
Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 8:26 pm
The latest episode of the Ukraine without the Hype podcast has a detailed rundown of J D Vance, his patron Peter Thiele and the bizarre philosophy both follow. I knew Vance was weird, but this lays out in detail just how weird.
https://www.audacy.com/podcast/ukraine-without-hype-bf272/episodes/87-jd-vance-the-far-right-and-ukraine-67c1e
(The Ukraine podcast covered this because obviously Ukraine supporters are concerned about what US policy might be after the election. The news is not happy.)
===============================================
Are you suggesting that if Trump won and then dropped dead. Putin would even be in better position than if he was alive? Not that Putin would ever consider arranging anything like that?
Latest polls starting to turn blue.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls
citizen @ #168 Wednesday, July 31st, 2024 – 8:32 pm
One word. Yikes.
Over here I’ll bet Dutton’s writing down notes.
Sheesh, the new USA thread hasn’t taken long to turn into a left-wing mouthpiece.
Clips of “my favourite media” passing for psephological discussion regardless of whether they’re anything about polls or not.
BTSays @ #171 Wednesday, July 31st, 2024 – 9:13 pm
Feel free to add something substantive to the discussion rather than more ‘Open Thread’ chatter about other commenters.
Confessions
Sorry if I touched a nerve but that wasn’t necessary, my comment was justified.
If I’ve got something ‘substantive’ to add I’ll add it. If not, I won’t just puke my opinion on said politicians over all the other readers of the thread, unlike some.
For the Harris campaign (especially, as they need a higher share of the vote to win nationally), a key number to watch is the VI number for Harris regardless of whether that number shows her ahead or behind Trump.
To get a more accurate gauge of it, they should be watching it excluding ‘undecideds’ as well as (in fact even more than) headline numbers, to see how close Harris is getting to the ‘winning’ number.
Obviously having Kennedy in play scrambles the notion of what that number may be but it’s still the one to watch for them.
BTSays @ #178 Wednesday, July 31st, 2024 – 9:25 pm
No, you’ll just puke your opinion about other commenters over the thread instead. 😐
If you look at the latest polls it seems that Michigan is behind Harris. So that can mean that she can lose the Arab-American vote and make Shapiro her VP. She needs Pennsylvania.
I think it’s important to see how Kamala’s campaign is using Project 2025 against the Republicans because it remains to be seen just how effective it may end up being.
Biden’s campaign hadn’t put much effort into it, but Kamala’s people are dragging everything out for all to see, and from what polling tells us, they don’t like it very much.
It’s a shame Bloomberg didn’t simultaneously do a national poll with those battleground state polls.
Those positive polls for Harris imply a lead nationally of similar to Biden 2020 i.e. 4.5% – but who knows? Perhaps that 4.5% number changes with a different character as candidate.
Lots of churn to come, definitely more exciting since Biden bowed out.
For the record I like Tim Walz. Comes across as a very normal and genuine person.
C@tmomma
I don’t think anyone on this forum will take lectures on speaking respectfully about other posters on the thread from C@tmomma, that’s for sure.
Some of us actually do speak respectfully – even my comment that offended you was impersonal. Others just wantonly throw insults around left, right and centre.
Didn’t think it was a big ask to be grownups on a supposedly grownup thread. As we’ve noted before, there’s plenty other places on the internet to spew our non-pseph opinions.
Harris has certainly got Trump down pat, pushing him to the brink of…well, weirdness; if not, total mental breakdown:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u3XKT4lkI1k
Trump has fired the head of Project 2025. So much for him knowing nothing about it.
It’s a testament to the Harris campaign that Trump has had to distance himself from this highly unpopular issue.
Peter Hamby
@PeterHamby
Harris was doing 20 min speeches as VP. It works. No reason for hour-long stemwinders. Get in, make your points, get out, make your calls, do media. Rinse, repeat
Entropy
“ Are you suggesting that if Trump won and then dropped dead. Putin would even be in better position than if he was alive? Not that Putin would ever consider arranging anything like that?”
——————————————————————-
I wasn’t suggesting it. Given the lifespan of billionaire oligarchs who supported Putin since the start of the Ukraine War, I wouldn’t rule it out.
Putin and Trump are both quick to discard anyone no longer useful to them.
However I don’t think Putin is foolish enough to start WWIII, so I doubt Putin would actually arrange it, He might send him a gift pack of high cholesterol burgers?
If Harris prevails, I think the crew of MeidasTouch will have been
instrumental. For several years now they’ve been scathing of the Trump clown show; their subscribers have grown to 2.7 million.
If there’s one thing that far-rightwingers can’t stand, it’s being ridiculed. They want to stand up as strong, feared people that do what they do for morality and such.
If leftists say something like “They want to deport millions of immigrants!”, then they’ll proudly own that as “Keeping the nation safe from illegal aliens.”
If leftists say something like “They want to ban abortion across the whole nation!”, then they’ll also proudly own that as “Protecting the sacred lives of the unborn.”
But when their opponents start saying things like “Ew, they want to maximize government control into everyone’s sex lives? Like banning contraception and monitoring everyone watching porn? That’s kinda creepy and weird.” then that starts to mess with their sad little minds.
Trump has fired the head of Project 2025. So much for him knowing nothing about it.
Very astute connection to make, ‘Fess.
For perspective, The Daily Show with Stewart in its prime got 2million viewers a night. These days it is down to 600k. Colbert gets 2million on a good night.
So 2.7m subs is pretty useful.
“Trump has fired the head of Project 2025.”
Was he fired, or did he just scuttle back to the dark corner from whence he came?
Socratessays:
Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 9:48 pm
Entropy
“ Are you suggesting that if Trump won and then dropped dead. Putin would even be in better position than if he was alive? Not that Putin would ever consider arranging anything like that?”
——————————————————————-
I wasn’t suggesting it. Given the lifespan of billionaire oligarchs who supported Putin since the start of the Ukraine War, I wouldn’t rule it out.
Putin and Trump are both quick to discard anyone no longer useful to them.
However I don’t think Putin is foolish enough to start WWIII, so I doubt Putin would actually arrange it, He might send him a gift pack of high cholesterol burgers?
==================================================
If Trump gets to be POTUS and Vance is VP. I still suggest he not go near any open windows on the second floor or higher.
To be really safe Trump needs a pro-Ukrainian VP instead.
Pueosays:
Wednesday, July 31, 2024 at 10:32 pm
“Trump has fired the head of Project 2025.”
Was he fired, or did he just scuttle back to the dark corner from whence he came?
=======================================================
I gather he actually stepped down. Though you don’t dismantle an organisation by getting rid of the head of it. All this amounts to is giving his deputy the job instead.
Hah, yeah, likely story, as if Trump woke up one morning and was like “What? One of my closest backers is in charge of a conspiracy involving hundreds of thousands of my supporters to bring a wave of fascism over everything I’d have control of as President? Oh no, he’s gotta go, I’ve completely changed my mind on everything, folks.”
I love it when Trump complains Fox is biased against him.
I love the smell of hope in the morning. It smells like democracy.
You’re either 100% pro Trump, or you’re part of a conspiracy against him. 🙄
JD, whatever you do, don’t mention the effing couch. And what’s this about you hating police? Trump’s going to get as mad as hell at son Eric and his second best friend Peter Thiel for highly recommending his running mate in the obvious absence of vetting. Rumour has it that extreme MAGA supporters are drip-feeding the goods on JD to various media outlets. Apparently, they’re pissed that Vance has an Indian-born wife. Is JD more stupid than Dan Quayle? – I think so.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qnxlSOJIigY&t=302s
I see that Vance’s wife (Usha Chilukuri) was born in San Diego to Indian immigrants but that wouldn’t satisfy her racist detractors.
@Mavis
It’s moments like this that make me doubt that Trump wants to make a dynasty of his imbecile sons Don Jr. and Eric. If the rumours are true that they convinced him to make an even more embarrassing version of Ron DeSantis as his running mate, I’ll bet he’d be livid with them.
As red meat to his base, that went well.
Not so much for everyone else.
Trump says Harris ‘became a Black person’ as NABJ event turns hostile, chaotic
Donald Trump immediately berated a Black reporter who questioned him about his record of offensive comments about Black people.
https://wapo.st/4d9t9SL
Watched some of Trump’s appearance with the black journalists. What a pig of a man.
Shorter Trump.
Grievance. Whataboutism. Rudeness. Lies.