With The Conversation keeping this site’s regular US correspondent busy, a quick post of my own on the US election campaign, and a forum for the discussion thereof. The big news from my perspective is that, after all the noteworthy forecasters closed for refurbishment following Joe Biden’s withdrawal, Nate Silver has lifted the lid on his Harris-versus-Trump model.
The model launches with a 61.3% win probability for Trump and 38.1% for Harris, the balance presumably reflecting the possibility that one candidate or the other doesn’t survive until November. These numbers suggest a model with a judiciously wide zone of uncertainty around projections that superficially look very encouraging for Trump. Silver’s model records an essentially dead head on the national popular vote, and doesn’t credit Harris with a better than even chance unless she lands at least two points clear. State-level projections find Trump more likely than not to flip Wisconsin (just), Michigan and Pennsylvania (a little further ahead), Nevada (a little further again) and Arizona and Georgia (both about as strong for Trump as North Carolina, which he carried in 2020).
The Economist’s model is still on ice, but its page explaining its methodology is well worth reading. Its charts comparing the predictiveness of its poll-based and “fundamentals” models going back to 1948 are particularly interesting in finding that the latter have the superior record – certainly at predicting the result 150 days out, but even unto election day itself. However, one of its parameters does not seem to me to be quite as fundamental as all that, being a poll-based measure of presidential approval.
The question of polls-versus-fundamentals was the focus of a critique by Nate Silver of the new model developed by FiveThirtyEight, the enterprise formerly synonymous with Silver but now bought out, LucasFilm style, by Disney. Its new incarnation is overseen by G. Elliott Morris, of whom Silver says he is “not a fan”. This was producing remarkably bullish results for Biden up until it was put on ice, which evidently wasn’t persuading too many senior Democrats. As well as criticising a lack of transparency, Silver observes that the model seems to be overwhelmingly favouring fundamentals, despite its supporting data suggesting that fundamentals should in fact be viewed as less predictive than polls. Its thesis, Silver argues, is that – as of July 21 – “Joe Biden is a reasonably clear favorite to win the popular vote because he’s an incumbent, and it’s too early to really update that assumption based on the polling or anything else”.
A review of Trump’s black journalists outing..
https://youtu.be/dX4O_hGDHHo?si=_ebHYQeVbnM6QE8K
Trump’s Truth Social network records second-worst audience decline
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/31/trump-truth-social-audience
Donald Trump is a world class grub! And everyone, from now on, who associates themselves with him and his campaign is implicitly siding with his viewpoints, whatever they may be.
Is anyone questioning the identity of Trump campaign spokesman, Steven Cheung? Of Trump campaign head, Chris La Civita? Of course they’re not, even though they aren’t possessing of Anglo surnames or heritage either. So, it’s just Trump trying the tired old Birther play again. It didn’t work against Barack Obama, and it won’t work against Kamala Harris.
My son made a very astute point when he heard it too. He said, funny how this was never a problem for Trump until Kamala Harris became the likely Democratic Party nominee? 😐
As always I check Trump’s appearances for signs of dementia. The peculiar thing about the NABJ interview was that there were very few signs of his dementia on display.
True his malignant narcissism, his misogyny, his total lack of empathy, his lying, his vicious sadism, his racism and his paranoia all had free expression.
But not his dementia. For once there was no slurring. There was no phonemic aphasia. And most of his sentences started and ended on the same topic.
So there was that.
On a positive note it was great to see interviewers who were coherent, persistent and courageous take it up to the bully boy.
Yesterday I wondered whether it was a right and proper thing for the NABJ to give Trump a stump. Not today.
Interesting: https://www.axios.com/2024/07/31/kamala-harris-vp-pick-wall-street-donors
That and the Penn start of the tour triangulates for Shapiro as VP. If true, take a bow Confessions!
(From the DP) [‘Kamala Harris’ pick as her potential vice president has taken on greater significance since the assassination attempt on Donald Trump and could sway a close election…’]
The inference is clear. The Secret Service badly botched the protection of Trump. Let’s hope Harris is being protected to the hilt,
especially as she’s now made the election competitive.
The USA coming out of a dark period.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0DQsKUejBsE
Donald trump is still being dark.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dX4O_hGDHHo
Trump has no hope.
Here’s a mash up of Trump’s NABJ appearance. What a train wreck!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJFmvXQp6F8&ab_channel=AaronRupar
Griff @ #206 Thursday, August 1st, 2024 – 8:25 am
From the clips of the top 3 contenders that Mostly Interested put up here yesterday I still favour Governor Tim Walz. His folksy way of speaking while promoting all the Progressive things he has done for his state was absolutely disarming and how could anyone criticise it the way he articulated it?
If not the VP Running Mate candidate for Kamala Harris, due to political considerations, then at least he deserves a role in her Administration should she win. Secretary of Education would be appropriate.
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, August 1, 2024 at 8:39 am
Griff @ #206 Thursday, August 1st, 2024 – 8:25 am
Interesting: https://www.axios.com/2024/07/31/kamala-harris-vp-pick-wall-street-donors
That and the Penn start of the tour triangulates for Shapiro as VP. If true, take a bow Confessions!
From the clips of the top 3 contenders that Mostly Interested put up here yesterday I still favour Governor Tim Walz. His folksy way of speaking while promoting all the Progressive things he has done for his state was absolutely disarming and how could anyone criticise it the way he articulated it?
If not the VP Running Mate candidate for Kamala Harris, due to political considerations, then at least he deserves a role in her Administration should she win. Secretary of Education would be appropriate.
_______
I favour Walz as well. He was the first to use the “weird” label for Trump and it immediately resonated to the point it was picked up by the Harris campaign and Harris herself. Still possible of course, but I reckon Shapiro is the more likely.
Trump unleashes his racism on Harris in front of Black journalists
“Scott: Do you believe Kamala Harris is only on the ticket because she is a Black woman?
Trump: Well, I can say now I think, maybe, it’s a little bit different. So, I’ve known her a long time indirectly, not directly, and she was always of Indian heritage. And she was only promoting Indian heritage. I didn’t know she was Black until a number of years ago when she happened to turn Black.
But it got so much worse.
Trump: Now she wants to be known as Black. I don’t know. Is she Indian, or is she Black?
Scott: She has always identified herself as a Black woman and went to a historically Black college.
Trump: I respect either one, but she obviously doesn’t. Because she was Indian all the way, then all of a sudden she made a turn and she went—she became a Black person.
To get the full sneering, disrespectful effect, you have to watch the video.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/7/31/2259609/-Trump-unleashes-his-racism-on-Harris-in-front-of-Black-journalists?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_4&pm_medium=web
It appears Trump got talking points from Badthinker and meherbaba.
Griff,
It’s not a total bust if Wall Street can’t get their Harris campaign donations in by Sunday:
Between the lines: It’s unclear if the SEC restrictions apply to super PACs.
There may also be some national Democratic funds that are closely associated with the Harris campaign but aren’t covered by the SEC rules.
🙂
Apparently voting deliberately for a woman makes you change into a woman (scientists told him so).
https://x.com/cookerwatch/status/1818435717439357066
Also, Kamala Harris was Black from the day she was born because of who her father was. She was also Indian from the day she was born, because of who her mother is.
Apparently Team Trump pulled Trump off the stage at NABJ, cutting the interview short because it was such a train wreck.
I can’t ever remember that happening before. Ever.
Comment from Nate Silver’s newsletter. Harris has significantly shifted the odds of Democrat victory in the electoral college in the Dems (her) favour.
“The Silver Bulletin presidential re-election forecast relaunched yesterday, but with a new candidate: Vice President Kamala Harris, not Joe Biden, is now the presumptive Democratic nominee. And fortunately for Democrats, she gives her party better odds: a 43 percent chance of winning the Electoral College — that’s already up from 38 percent yesterday as result of some strong swing state polling for Harris. (Biden was at 27 percent in our last model run, and that was probably generous.) Now, Silver Bulletin readers don’t need any reminder that 43 percent is below 50 percent: Trump is still the modest favorite. But this looks like another close race. I’m not even sure I’d say anymore that it’s Trump’s election to lose.”
Regardless of who wins from here (depends on campaign strategy and performance) Biden stepping down was the correct decision.
So in addition to countless other minority groups, Trump has further maligned Afro-Americans and now those of Indian heritage. This will improve his standing with his base, but he needs across-the-board support. It’s great to witness his unhinging. This period in US history can be likened in some respects to the McCarthy era.
Asking whether Harris is Black or Indian is like asking her which parent she wants to disown? Absurd.
Mavis @ #217 Thursday, August 1st, 2024 – 9:08 am
Yes, I find it interesting to observe how, as the number one candidate for the Republican Party, how Trump cannot be sophisticated enough in his thinking to moderate himself with a cohort of voters he’s trying to make inroads with this election. Their best candidate should have that ability.
I’m also wondering how every Black candidate on the Republican roster, especially if they are of mixed race, will explain away Trump’s comments? I mean, is Trump advocating for racial Black purity as well as racial White purity now?
Indigenous Australians face the same challenge as Harris from peeps like Bolt.
In fact there is quite a coterie of people who spend a significant effort trying to prove that some Indigenous people are not really Indigenous people at all.
Bruce Pascoe particularly enraged this mob – presumably because his theories challenged white settlement and white superior civilization memes.
Dutton@Trump.
Such is life.
‘Fess,
I think there’s going to be a lot of ketchup on the walls of Trump’s plane today. 😀
Latest Trump ad:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=olRj4cE_aW8&t=91s
C@tmomma:
Thursday, August 1, 2024 at 9:15 am
[‘Yes, I find it interesting to observe how, as the number one candidate for the Republican Party, how Trump cannot be sophisticated enough in his thinking to moderate himself with a cohort of voters he’s trying to make inroads with this election. Their best candidate should have that ability.
I’m also wondering how every Black candidate on the Republican roster, especially if they are of mixed race, will explain away Trump’s comments? I mean, is Trump advocating for racial Black purity as well as racial White purity now?’]
Agree. And it’s almost baby talk when he says people shouldn’t ask “horrible” questions. Until Harris replaced Biden, Trump thought
he had it in the bag. It’s not now and he knows it. He will lash out
at everyone, making him almost unelectable. Ain’t it great. Town.
Badthinker says:
Thursday, August 1, 2024 at 9:23 am
Latest Trump ad:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=olRj4cE_aW8&t=91s
Reminding people the Trump campaign is dark.
To get the full sneering, disrespectful effect, you have to watch the video.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/7/31/2259609/-Trump-unleashes-his-racism-on-Harris-in-front-of-Black-journalists?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_4&pm_medium=web
Okay, I just did.
President Trump came across as respectful and staying on topic.
The interviewer has a chip on her shoulder. The audience was laughing with Trump.
Reality is that Harris is flakey and always was.
Mavis
You make a good point about Trump’s balancing act between appealing to his base and offending Black/Indian Americans at the same time. Of course it isn’t an overall question. It depends on the balance in each state for the electoral college.
There are 4 million Indian Americans, and they vote reliably. Apart from California the biggest percentages live in swing states. This will help Harris in both great lakes states and possibly in Georgia and North Carolina.
(I hope this map image shows – Indian American percentage population by State)
”
C@tmommasays:
Thursday, August 1, 2024 at 9:00 am
Also, Kamala Harris was Black from the day she was born because of who her father was. She was also Indian from the day she was born, because of who her mother is.
”
Harris is American from day 1. Period
My daughter is an Australian from day 1 and she considers herself an Australian.
What if people have other heritages other than anglo-celtic. Does that make them less patriotic or lesser citizens?
In videos of the Republican convention and elsewhere, I noticed that non-white people seemed to be strategically placed in the crowd, presumably to give the appearance of an inclusive party.
Now it seems that Trump has undone the careful PR planning of his campaign team by his appearance at the meeting with black journalists. So for the campaign team trying to put lipstick on a pig, it’s one step forwards and two steps back.
“how Trump cannot be sophisticated enough in his thinking to moderate himself with a cohort of voters he’s trying to make inroads with this election. ”
1: he’s weird.
2: He is a massively arrogant narcissist who has worked out a narrative in his head where he is the ONE. re-Election and Recognition, Vindication of his “struggle”” and Anointment as a Great Man is simply what he deserves for being who he is. Anyone who questions that is to be held in contempt.
Its not that difficult to see where he is at psychologically. Its also pretty obvious that he is thoroughly malignantly toxic. fixated on what he hasn’t got or been denied.
Until Biden recused himself from the campaign there was probably enough noise in the system for that to be somewhat covered up. Not so much now with the Harris campaign. 🙂
I dont think that Trump will actually adjust to the different political landscape.
Trump doing quite well at rally in Harrisburg, Penn. LIVE.
He should pledge to rename Harrisburg to Trump City!
Trump campaign scrambles to blame Black journalists for Trump’s racism
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/7/31/2259671/-Trump-campaign-scrambles-to-blame-Black-journalists-for-Trump-s-racism?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
“The campaign knew it was a disaster before it was even over. What was supposed to be an hour-long question-and-answer session was abruptly cut short by Trump’s campaign after just 34 minutes—“an indication of how much of a train wreck it was for him,” tweeted Axios reporter Sophia Cai, “and also how good the questioning was.”
Trump came out of the event on defense.
“The questions were Rude and Nasty, often in the form of a statement, but we CRUSHED IT!” he posted on social media.
The campaign immediately started spinning, issuing a statement blasting “Liberal Mainstream Media Malpractice” and the “unhinged and unprofessional” journalists and their “biased and rude treatment from certain hostile members of the media” acting out their “fake outrage.”
Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, tried to spin the disaster by painting Trump as valiant.
“President Trump walked right into the NABJ conference and showed he had the courage to take tough questions, while Kamala Harris continues to hide from any scrutiny or unfriendly media like the coward she is,” he tweeted.
The only courage on display during those 34 minutes came from ABC’s Rachel Scott, who moderated the event.
The Harris campaign responded quickly with a statement as well.
“The hostility Donald Trump showed on stage today is the same hostility he has shown throughout his life, throughout his term in office, and throughout his campaign,” communications director Michael Tyler said.
“Trump lobbed personal attacks and insults at Black journalists the same way he did throughout his presidency—while he failed Black families and left the entire country digging out of the ditch he left us in,” he continued. “Donald Trump has already proven he cannot unite America, so he attempts to divide us.”
C@tmomma says Thursday, August 1, 2024 at 9:15 am
When people are under stress they revert to type.
This is what Americans are up against: A look inside the criminal probe that targeted Texas librarians
Harris talking at Black Sorority convention in Houston
https://www.youtube.com/live/jeZXpnm7GP8?si=U9Mgex7RoKT0kbQR
It is not stump speech. I don’t understand why some posters on PB don’t consider a good public speaker
“He should pledge to rename Harrisburg to Trump City!”
Did Rudy choose the venue?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Mile_Island_accident
Civics Poll
Fresh polling shows Harris momentum is real
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/7/31/2259566/-Fresh-polling-shows-Harris-momentum-is-real?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_9&pm_medium=web
“Vice President Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump in a new Civiqs poll for Daily Kos, 49% to 45%, with an increasing number of voters expressing confidence that Harris can defeat Trump compared to President Joe Biden. Harris has consolidated support among traditional Democratic voters, while Trump is just as troubling as ever and his running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, remains a drag on the GOP ticket.
Despite these changing trends, more voters still believe that Trump will win. “
Trump didn’t moderate his responses at the Black Journalists’ interview because he didn’t know how.
He CHOSE not to, because he KNEW that using the crudest responses possible would get him MORE votes from his base than he would lose from the small proportion of the electorate that is black.
And much as the Left might not like to admit, but the MEDIAN white voter has plenty of antipathy toward non-white people in general and they don’t need to pretend they don’t have that at the ballot box.
MelbourneMammoth @ #238 Thursday, August 1st, 2024 – 10:51 am
Wow that’s some 3d chess right there. Truly is a stable genius.
Take a listen to his recent podcast when Michael Moore outlines how we will crush Donald Trump! Michael Moore’s July 31 podcast can be found on Substack.
http://www.michaelmoore.com/...
HIs points:
Only 21% of the population is white men aged 40 and older. Women, people of color and young people will vote for Harris!
69% of Americans support legal abortion
90% want better gun safety legislation
72% believe climate change is real and want to do something
71% approve of labor unions
79% want the rich to pay more taxes
76% want a higher minimum wage
73% want student debt relief
70% approve legalizing marijuana use
74% want more affordable homes
65% approve term limits on the supreme court
69% support same sex marriage
65% want to end the electoral college
70% support a ceasefire in Gaza
72% want money out of politics
Trump is campaigning against what the American public wants. He wants to take us back.
Boerwarsays:
Thursday, August 1, 2024 at 8:18 am
As always I check Trump’s appearances for signs of dementia. The peculiar thing about the NABJ interview was that there were very few signs of his dementia on display.
True his malignant narcissism, his misogyny, his total lack of empathy, his lying, his vicious sadism, his racism and his paranoia all had free expression.
But not his dementia. For once there was no slurring. There was no phonemic aphasia. And most of his sentences started and ended on the same topic.
So there was that.
On a positive note it was great to see interviewers who were coherent, persistent and courageous take it up to the bully boy.
Yesterday I wondered whether it was a right and proper thing for the NABJ to give Trump a stump. Not today.
=================================================
Give him enough rope philosophy seemed to pay off this time.
Ven @ #227 Thursday, August 1st, 2024 – 9:46 am
I meant to write Indian-American and Black American, but the point I was actually trying to make was in reference to her heritage.
But MM, it’s worth unpacking.
Trump has a ceiling in white votes, there’s only so many uneducated low information racist whities to go about. There’s only so much voter mobilization you can achieve with the red meat approach you’ve highlighted Trump is employing.
Harris doesn’t have the same ceiling. In fact, she has likely increased voter mobilization among people of color and other demographics over the past week. This includes not just African Americans but also white voters who feel alienated by Trump. His divisive strategy primarily energizes uneducated low information racist whities (limited numbers), but it happily for the Dems also mobilizes every group outside of that base (the rest of America), broadening Harris’s support.
MelbourneMammoth @ #237 Thursday, August 1st, 2024 – 10:51 am
Apologist for bigotry. 😐
Pueo @ #235 Thursday, August 1st, 2024 – 10:38 am
I don’t get why the Trump campaign thinks these cheap shots at the Harris campaign, this one by going to Harrisburg, are going to be successful? Then obviously blasting out an email to Trump sycophants like Melbourne Mammoth who repeat it verbatim here?? It just looks cheap and nasty, low rent and unsophisticated.
I thought I lodged a comment here earlier today? Perhaps I made a typo in my email address as sometimes happens. Anyhoo, not worth repeating…
‘Rewi says:
Thursday, August 1, 2024 at 11:19 am
I thought I lodged a comment here earlier today? Perhaps I made a typo in my email address as sometimes happens. Anyhoo, not worth repeating…’
—————–
One of mine seems to have disappeared into the ether.
It was pro Greens so that is probably why it has gone.
Wow that’s some 3d chess right there. Truly is a stable genius.
Agree.
It makes a lot more sense than wondering why Trump is always pandering to Black voters who are going to vote>90% Democrat anyway.
And much as the Left might not like to admit, but the MEDIAN white voter has plenty of antipathy toward non-white people in general and they don’t need to pretend they don’t have that at the ballot box.
Trump pitched to that Silent Majority in 2016, lost his way afterward, could be back on track?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/31/trump-vp-pick-jd-vance-insignificance
Looks like Trump holds his VP in some contempt as well as just about everyone else.
I’d say as long as Harris makes an acceptable and not very contreversial pick for VP then it will be a plus for her campaign. She doesn’t have to make any point in her VP pick. Really, just pick someone that can be sold as a reliable, safe pair of hands if they ever need to take over.
Thinking about it, that would actually be a massive contrast with Vance that the Dems campaign can play on?? 🙂
I am starting to get a bit of a vibe that we may see some friction in the Trump campaign if Trump starts to think his VP pick is actually a liability. A “Your Fired!!!!” moment?? 🙂 REd meat for his base maybe, but as pointed out upthread, Trump needs more than just holding his base in the face of what looks like a very big Democrat voter mobilisation.
BW:
Oh, for God’s sake, can you at least keep this crap in the main thread? For some of us, these international threads are a welcome reprieve from all that nonsense.
I mean, really… what on earth do the Greens have to do with the US Election?