Kamala Harris has announced as her running mate Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, whose presumed appeal to voters in rural areas and the Mid-West balances some of Harris’s more glaring electoral weaknesses. The announcement comes as the latest polling gives the Democrats cause for something almost resembling optimism. Nate Silver remains to my limited knowledge the only major forecaster to have returned to the field after Biden’s withdrawal – he now has Harris the favourite to win, albeit just barely, with a 45.7% to 43.8% lead on the popular vote. The Poll Bludger’s usual foreign correspondent, Adrian Beaumont, has more at The Conversation.
Boerwarsays:
Wednesday, August 14, 2024 at 4:35 pm
BT
You put yourself to bed yesterday, did you?
No-one is throwing Trump’s dementia symptoms around loosely… except for Trump himself. He can’t help it. He has dementia.
As for your very own test of purity, Trump won’t submit himself to dementia testing.
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Ironically just a month or two ago it was Trump that was demanding all sorts of tests on Biden be carried out.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoniopequenoiv/2024/06/24/trump-suggests-biden-take-pre-debate-drug-test-as-republicans-attack-presidents-mental-acuity/
Now the shoes on the other foot. He is unwilling to swallow his own three eyed fish.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4TyDkpL_-o
Trump’s constant slurring during the Musk interview happened because:
1. he was joking about exhibiting dementia symptoms
2. he was drunk or under the influence of drugs
3. everyone slurs from time-to-time
4. he has dementia.
5. it did not happen because it was not mainstream slurring
BTSays @ #1249 Wednesday, August 14th, 2024 – 4:28 pm
Agreed. We’re a bit in the weeds right now. We’re not even at the serious end of business right now. A lot can happen between now and November. I mean, as Australians, we’re mostly getting info through online filters. Who knows what’s on the minds of barely engaged voters at this point. For all this buzz about Harris, she might flop when a relatively disengaged and mostly offline voter starts paying attention.
I will say this one thing: regardless of what you think of either candidate or their respective parties/ideologies, I think if Harris wins, one upside will be that it might kill the idea that these stupid campaigns have to be nearly two years long to work. And, also, we can probably stop being so hyper-focused on them a year out.
Heck, even if Trump wins, you can also make the case that his return was more akin to an Opposition Leader in a parliamentary system building up support and winning the election – the extent of the campaign itself not being so pivotal.
I guess what I am trying to say is: go parliamentary, America.
Oh, what happens now matters all right.
What happens now is not phony.
What happens now is not in the weeds.
Just ask Trump.
@ Centre
Apologies if I offended. I shouldn’t assume and don’t really care about anyone’s political persuasion. The use of the word ‘woke’, ‘rich woke types’ and ‘righteous rich woke celebrities’ didn’t scream out socially progressive to me. ‘Woke’ is used continually by the right, and is usually used disparagingly as I believe you were using it, along with the word ‘rich’. I disagree with you defining ‘middle America’ as Trump voters and ‘middle Australia’ as Liberal. Also, why ‘rich Teals’ any more than rich Liberals or rich anyone? And I don’t understand why Unions, Centrelink and the ABC were thrown in there amongst the political parties.
“Middle Americans do not want to be told how to live their lives by rich woke types.”
“…….It reinforces the view of middle America that they will vote for who they want and how they want to live their lives, and not the way righteous rich woke celebrities want everyone to live their lives.”
“Now it appears to be – Rich Teals + Labor (Unions/Centrelink/ ABC) + Greens .v. Liberals (middle Australia).”
If Liberal is ‘middle Australia’ then there is virtually no ‘middle Australia’ in WA where the Libs won two lower house seats at the last election.
Yes, I agree, we are in a bit of a holding pattern until the DNC Convention. What’s interesting me now is the polling of blue wall states vs Texas. Consider the recent elections there:
Results since 2004: Texas
Year. R% D%. Delta
2004 – 61.1 – 38.2. 22.9
2008 – 55.5 – 43.7. 11.8
2012 – 57.2 – 41.1. 16.2
2016 – 52.2 – 43.2. 9
2020 – 52.1 – 46.5. 5.6
Given how Florida and Ohio seem to be going in the other direction, I think Texas is a better opportunity for the Democrats, especially if things go south for Trump. I wouldn’t be surprised if Texas has a closer margin than some or all of Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania in the end.
YaramahZsays:
Wednesday, August 14, 2024 at 5:52 pm
Yes, I agree, we are in a bit of a holding pattern until the DNC Convention. What’s interesting me now is the polling of blue wall states vs Texas. Consider the recent elections there:
Results since 2004: Texas
Year. R% D%. Delta
2004 – 61.1 – 38.2. 22.9
2008 – 55.5 – 43.7. 11.8
2012 – 57.2 – 41.1. 16.2
2016 – 52.2 – 43.2. 9
2020 – 52.1 – 46.5. 5.6
Given how Florida and Ohio seem to be going in the other direction.
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Ohio polls are interesting. Shows Brown the Democrat Senator with a good lead. Yet the polls also seem to show a good lead to Trump. Though the Senate polling was from the 11th August. The POTUS polling was much older from the 27th of July.
YaramahZ @ #1257 Wednesday, August 14th, 2024 – 5:52 pm
I agree, there’s a chance that Blexas could happen sometime soon. As mentioned before, Texas has big cities such as Houston, San Antonio, Dallas and Austin, much the same as California has the San Francisco Bay area, Los Angeles and San Diego. And in Texas’s cases, these cities are growing.
Unfortunately the Texas state government is doing all it can to disenfranchise likely Democratic voters from the electoral rolls and make it as hard as possible for them to vote in these big cities while making it as easy as possible in the deep-red counties, but like Georgia, there eventually will be a tipping point where big city Texans will in fact line up for 7 hours so they can cast their ballots in person enough to flip the state, which the Republicans have made sure that’s their only option in which to cast their vote.
The Democratic group End Citizens United has filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission arguing that Donald Trump’s interview with Elon Musk was an illegal corporate contribution to Trump’s presidential campaign.
The former president participated in a lengthy live interview Monday night with Musk on X. The interview with Musk, who owns X and has endorsed Trump, started more than 40 minutes late amid technical issues.
The FEC complaint, filed Tuesday, alleges that the interview violated a ban on corporate donations to federal candidates and that an exemption for the media did not apply to the circumstances.
“Here—the considerable resources of X to host Trump’s campaign event, including dedicating real-time staff to address technical difficulties specifically for the campaign event and the time of its owner to participate in the event—are of significant value to the Trump Campaign,” the complaint says. “The event itself included repeated express advocacy by Musk for Trump.”
Trump’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the complaint.
End Citizens United’s president, Tiffany Muller, said in a statement that the interview could “set a dangerous precedent for unfettered, direct corporate engagement in campaigns.” The group, which has long been focused on campaign finance changes, supports Trump’s Democratic opponent in the November election, Vice President Kamala Harris.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/08/13/2024-election-campaign-updates-harris-trump/
Fantastic response from Walz to those attacking his record of service in the National Guard.
Why do Trump and Vance hate America and Americans so much?
https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1823448892547223685
Interesting discussion with the Lincoln Project about Harris’ expanding electoral map. I am trying to keep a lid on things but it’s starting to feel like we are in a genuine moment now.
https://www.youtube.com/live/zTw_Fklvu_0
This Is What It’s Like Working With Tim Walz: Top Minnesota Republican Lisa Demuth
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pbSc7Fh0KpU
That’s the best they’ve got against Walz? His direct political opponent? Please, this is like asking Michaelia Cash what she thinks of Australian Labor. Honestly pathetic.
Kirsdarkesays:
Wednesday, August 14, 2024 at 6:53 pm
That’s the best they’ve got against Walz? His direct political opponent? Please, this is like asking Michaelia Cash what she thinks of Australian Labor. Honestly pathetic.
================================================
It is Badthinker. Even providing a totally biased source to back his statement. Is still a vast improvement on his general unsourced fake claims.
Harris and Walz are an impressive pair. If the Democrats can’t beat the pants off Trump and Vance and the clown show they represent they might as well give up and so should we – on the USA
I posted a link to a lengthy Rachel Maddow video yesterday, regarding planned election interference by the GOP and a counter group calling themselves CREW. Here’s another take on this from Colorado. (3 minutes)
https://youtu.be/6UKv2gm0Wy8
Summary: Yes, it will likely happen again. But we’ve seen this before and we won’t be taken by surprise twice.
(I wish all the various YouTube pundits could keep it as short as this channel does.)
Fess , nice to see you coming around. The old people who inhabit this place don’t understand the modern dynamics of what is happening. Tsunami, meet King Canute!
outside left @ #1268 Wednesday, August 14th, 2024 – 7:27 pm
???
Shared from a friend on Facebook.
Texas won’t go blue until the southern border ‘invasion’ has been fixed, whether by Dems or GOPs.
Then it may very well go blue quickly.
And that, of course, will massively rebalance the disparity between popular vote and electoral college votes that currently exists where Biden won the former by nearly 4.5% but came very close to losing the electoral college with wins by minute fractions of 1% in multiple states.
BTSays @ #1271 Wednesday, August 14th, 2024 – 7:59 pm
That’s also true. I recall in 2020 that the Rio Grande Valley on the border swung very sharply to the Republicans.
Trouble is, what does “fixing the border” entail that would satisfy them? Building the wall? Mass deportation on the scale of post-WW2 Europe?
One of the things that pissed me off most about Trump and his supporters was “Banning all travel from (certain) Muslim countries until we know what the hell is going on!” And they never defined that end condition. It was just a slogan to hide behind. And this feels like the same, they’ll keep on referring to the “Border problem” in the same way as “We were always at war with Eastasia.”
Yes, Republicans will milk the border issue as much as they can. But they have to demonstrate they’ve fixed it somehow, whether imperfect or not.
Likewise to neutralise the issue for them, Dems need to do the same if they win the presidency again this year.
Too weird to be president.
https://www.youtube.com/live/zTw_Fklvu_0
[‘Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump by nine percentage points in a key battleground state, according to a new poll.
The survey, conducted by the Independent Center between August 8 and August 11, reveals that Harris received 51 percent of the vote among respondents in Wisconsin, compared to Trump’s 42 percent in a head-to-head matchup.
Harris is also leading Trump by five percentage points in Michigan, securing 49 percent of the vote to the former president’s 43 percent; and in Pennsylvania by 4 percentage points with 49 percent to Trump’s 45 percent.
In Wisconsin, Harris maintains her 9 percentage point lead when third-party candidates are included, securing 49 percent of the vote to Trump’s 40 percent.’]
https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-nine-point-lead-donald-trump-wisconsin-poll-presidential-election-1938361
Probably too good to be true but the utility of this poll is that
it will increase Trump’s paranoia.
Morning Joe(MSNBC):
Cook report: Harris leads or is tied with Trump in all but one swing state
In Swing states, 59% voters think Harris is ‘change agent’.
While the polling looks promising, I’ll only believe the US has elected a woman as president when I see it. Especially a woman who is half black and half Asian.
Today was an excellent day for Trump.
He didn’t hold a rally, tweet a tweet or do an interview.
I haven’t been following the numbers all that closely but it does look as if there is still upward momentum for Harris…
… and that the polling numbers have yet to plateau.
Is this wishful thinking or about right?
TTT
There is a bit of crossing the fingers, holding the breath and hardly daring to believe. I mean pied piper, Alabama, badthinker and FUBAR on Trump’s chances, of course.
Today Trump will do a campaign rally in North Carolina later in the day (US time). So we shall have to wait and see whether it will be good day for him or not.
Vensays:
Wednesday, August 14, 2024 at 9:38 pm
Today Trump will do a campaign rally in North Carolina later in the day (US time). So we shall have to wait and see whether it will be good day for him or not.
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Looks like it is going ahead as they made him pay in advance.
“Trump is set to take the stage at Asheville’s Thomas Wolfe Auditorium on Wednesday after paying $82,247.60 to the city for a “last-minute” rally, according to Blue Ridge Public Radio (BPR).”
“While the campaign paid in advance due to Asheville’s policy for short-notice bookings, Trump has a long history of failing to pay cities for billed rally fees, leaving the White House in January 2021 with at least $850,000 in unpaid rally debt. Most of the bills are still unpaid, including more than $500,000 owed to the city of El Paso, Texas.”
“The Trump campaign booked the smaller of two venues at the same complex in downtown Asheville for Wednesday’s rally. The Thomas Wolfe Auditorium has a capacity of just 2,431 people, while a larger arena next door that is not hosting Trump has a capacity of 7,200.”
https://www.newsweek.com/trump-campaign-forced-pay-north-carolina-city-82k-advance-rally-1938769
Mavissays:
Wednesday, August 14, 2024 at 8:56 pm
These are the polls already brought to you by yours truly and Wat higher up. Just from a news site so different source.
“Boerwarsays:
Wednesday, August 14, 2024 at 9:25 pm
I haven’t been following the numbers all that closely but it does look as if there is still upward momentum for Harris…
… and that the polling numbers have yet to plateau.
Is this wishful thinking or about right?”
A bit of both. It’s about right tbh but none of us know whether Harris’s upward momentum has plateaued yet. If things keep going as they are she may get a further little boost following the DNC later this month.
The main caveat is that there are still polls showing Trump where he needs to be as well as ones showing Harris where she needs to be. I’d say taking an average – if the election were held tomorrow Harris is probably a nose ahead IMO but it’s TCTC.
I think I said earlier this week that I thought Trump still had the slight edge – so this would be a slight revision of what I think, although I think Trump still holds a slight underlying edge looking at the long game (i.e. as the election is being held November not tomorrow). Harris is hardly out of the honeymoon stage.
BTSayssays:
Wednesday, August 14, 2024 at 10:15 pm
Mavissays:
Wednesday, August 14, 2024 at 8:56 pm
These are the polls already brought to you by yours truly and Wat higher up. Just from a news site so different source.
================================================
There a long way back on a previous page now. Mavis would have needed to do quite a bit of back scrolling to find them there. It doesn’t matter if they are posted again and we read a different news providers take on them.
Wat Tyler @ #1215 Wednesday, August 14th, 2024 – 11:59 am
Great post. While I’m luke-warm optimistic that America’s slide into an oligopolistic autocracy might be subverted at this election, it may only be a respite.
A lot depends on how the Republican Party responds in a post-trump era. Does it descend into civil war or rally round a new, younger, MAGA standard-bearer, block everything and allow the weight of “events dear boy” to sweep them back into power?
“There a long way back on a previous page now. Mavis would have needed to do quite a bit of back scrolling to find them there. It doesn’t matter if they are posted again and we read a different news providers take on them.”
Thank you for being my self-appointed evaluator of my posts for me.
P.S. So what? Some people might have thought they were different polls so no harm in clarifying.
BTSayssays:
Wednesday, August 14, 2024 at 10:45 pm
“There a long way back on a previous page now. Mavis would have needed to do quite a bit of back scrolling to find them there. It doesn’t matter if they are posted again and we read a different news providers take on them.”
Thank you for being my self-appointed evaluator of my posts for me.
P.S. So what? Some people might have thought they were different polls so no harm in clarifying.
=====================================================
Did i break another one of your posting rules?
“. . . America’s slide into an oligopolistic autocracy might be subverted at this election. . .”
That’s a word salad if ever there was one. 🙂
“Monmouth University just released a new poll showing that Kamala Harris is the preferred candidate in the presidential race, and that voters are generally more enthusiastic about the election since the vice-president replaced Joe Biden …”
“NATIONAL VOTER POLL: Support for 2024 presidential candidates.
KAMALA HARRIS:
38% definitely / 10% probably
44% definitely not / 6% probably not
DONALD TRUMP:
33% definitely / 10% probably
49% definitely not / 6% probably not”
“Enthusiasm for the rematch between Biden and Donald Trump never topped 50%, Monmouth notes, but now that Harris will be on ballots, it has risen to 68% …”
“In the words of Monmouth University Polling Institute’s director, Patrick Murray: ‘This is clearly a different ballgame.’ …”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/aug/14/harris-trump-polls-swing-states-election-updates
New thread.