After the extraordinarly upheavals of last month, forecasts and polling aggregates suggest the US presidential election campaign has been in a holding pattern for over a fortnight, in which Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump on the national popular vote by an amount that makes it anyone’s guess as to who should be favoured for the Electoral College. Nate Silver’s model has Harris’s poll lead at 47.0% to 44.5% (Robert F. Kennedy, who is reportedly on the cusp of dropping out and endorsing Trump, is now down to 4.2%), converting to a 53.7% chance of a Harris victory compared with 45.9% for Trump (the balance being “no majority”). At state level, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada are essentially rated dead heats, which would make Pennsylvania the decider. The Economist’s forecast is slightly narrower on win probability, at 51% for Harris and 48% for Trump, but is in all respects remarkably similar to Silver’s. Adrian Beaumont has more at The Conversation.
“Belle” makes a couple of points about Harris. Harris trusts her people. She is building a team and trusting it to do the work. That spreads the load, or if you prefer, it adds more shoulders to the wheel. There’s also much better feedback from the ground, in the sense of more, faster and more accurate. It’s smart.
https://youtu.be/9Zq3yKNowSI
There are two things “Belle” of the video didn’t get to in her 3 minutes. First, Harris appears to understand her place in the machinery of government. (Something her opposition doesn’t.) She knows how to lead by building and trusting a team to do the work. She is the opposite of an autocrat. And secondly, she understands government. She is building a structure and filling it with people (building a particular type of team) that aligns the practice of government (which will be executed by the team) with its constitutional structure. My guess is she’s a fast learner and Biden is a good mentor. As President she will “get shit done”.
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Late Risersays:
Thursday, August 29, 2024 at 7:05 pm
Thanks Ven. Interesting thesis he advances.
“The GOP candidates for President and Vice President are, in the most important way for politicians, disconnected from people. Specially people they have never met. … Imagine JD Vance or Donald T**** trying to talk to High School students.”
It’s weird how profound that word is.
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LR
When Walz talked at firefighters union meet, he emphasised the word “choice” and told the crowd how in earlier times Republican party supported freedom to choose and how Republican party did not want to interfere in people’s lives(less government). “Not those guys”, he emphasised.
IMO, that sentiment appeals a lot to libertarian streak in Americans.
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Late Risersays:
Thursday, August 29, 2024 at 7:31 pm
Boerwar @ #548 Thursday, August 29th, 2024 – 7:24 pm
‘Ven says:
Thursday, August 29, 2024 at 5:45 pm
…
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Other than Mavis nobody else on PB seems to grasp the gravity of this stupid desecration of Arlington cemetary by Trump.
At the most reaction on PB is another Trump stunt.’
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Not me. IMO, this doubles down on the way Trump dissed CMH recipients.
Add bone spurs.
Add 24 years of Walz service in the uniform.
Whether it will change Vet votes, I don’t know.
It might motivate some of them to stay at home.
Ven, you may have missed my comment on it. Profound trauma is at the heart of how T**** f***ed up in Arlington. What he did will never be forgotten by anyone who values that cemetery, for the simple reason that it literally cannot be forgotten. That’s what trauma is. He stomped all over it.
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LR
To be fair, I am one of those people who didn’t know that one should not take photos and videos at military cemetaries.
But I think, once a person goes there for a visit, they will be reminded that photos and videos are not allowed for partisan reasons.
The thing is Trump used this photo op and videos in a political ad to denigrade his political opponent as illustrated by Chris Hays in 6:08 pm post
JD Vance public appearance in a nutshell:
There is no problem at all in taking photos in most military cemeteries. For one reason and another they are often both profoundly moving and profoundly photogenic.
Arlington seems to have a specific rule about abusing the dead by using them for party political
purposes.
Fair enough, IMO.
There is, of course, nothing that a malignant narcissist won’t do.
When you visit a spiritual place, it’s simply good manners to consider what it means to the people who revere it. It’s also called respect. (As an aside, it’s something more of us could learn about the special places in our country.) But back to T****, he of course lacks that ability.
Late Riser @ #532 Thursday, August 29th, 2024 – 3:32 pm
I got this quite wrong. Of course, the head-to-head with the two candidates isn’t happening tomorrow. I was thinking of the Harris & Walz interview with CNN when I wrote this. Dumb mistake. Sorry.
Trump’s Arlington scandal gets worse and worse—and worse
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Late Risersays:
Thursday, August 29, 2024 at 11:45 pm
When you visit a spiritual place, it’s simply good manners to consider what it means to the people who revere it. It’s also called respect. (As an aside, it’s something more of us could learn about the special places in our country.) But back to T****, he of course lacks that ability.
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https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/29/2266505/-Trump-s-Arlington-scandal-gets-worse-and-worse-and-worse?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
“And much more about what happened at Arlington has come to light:
Members of Trump’s team had a verbal and physical altercation with a member of the cemetery staff who has now been identified as a woman.
The woman was reportedly pushed aside by a large male member of Trump’s campaign staff when she tried to prevent the campaign from taking cameras into Arlington’s specially protected Section 60 area, where recently deceased veterans are buried.
In advance of the visit, Trump’s team was told personal aides could come but not campaign staff. They came anyway.
Trump’s team was expressly told that “photographers, content creators or any other persons” attending for a political campaign were not allowed, according to a statement from the cemetery. His team brought them anyway.
In statements after the event, Trump’s team insulted the cemetery official repeatedly, saying that she was “suffering from a mental health episode,” “despicable,” and “a disgrace.”
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“According to The New York Times, the woman who was assaulted by members of Trump’s campaign has reportedly declined to press charges. And the reason she declined is as distressing as everything else about this story.
Military officials said that the cemetery worker feared that pursuing the matter with the authorities at Joint Base Myer-Henderson Hall in Virginia, which has jurisdiction over the cemetery, could subject her to retaliation from Trump supporters. [Trump campaign spokesman Steven] Cheung said in a statement on Wednesday that “that is ridiculous and sounds like someone who has Trump Derangement Syndrome.”
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““You guys in the media, you’re acting like Donald Trump filmed a TV commercial at a gravesite,” Vance said at a Pennsylvania campaign stop on Wednesday.
Which is exactly what Trump did.”
Harris up 4-5% in new poll by USA Today/ Suffolk University
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/29/2266537/-Harris-up-4-5-in-new-poll-by-USA-Today-Suffolk-University?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
“Harris is up 48%-43% in a new poll from USA Today/Suffolk University (moe 3.1%). This pollster is pretty highly rated.
http://www.usatoday.com/...
The poll of 1,000 likely voters, taken by landline and cell phone Sunday through Wednesday… is now measuring likely voters; previous polls were of registered voters. Without the customary rounding of results, her edge would be closer to four points than five, 47.6% to 43.3%.”
“Harris improved by 24 points among younger voters, 18 points among Latino voters, and 17 points among Black voters comparing to their June poll with Biden:
Voters 18 to 34 years old moved from supporting Trump by 11 points to supporting Harris by 13 points, 49%-36%.
Hispanics, a group the Republican campaign has been cultivating, moved from supporting Trump by 2 points to supporting Harris by 16 points, 53%-37%.
Black voters, traditionally one of the most overwhelmingly Democratic groups, moved from supporting Biden by 47 points to supporting Harris by 64 points, 76%-12%.”
“Harris also had a +26 point swing among voters with the lowest incomes, <$20k (going from Trump +3 to Harris +23).
http://www.suffolk.edu/...
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Vance follows Walz at firefighters convention—and gets burned (watch the contrasting videos of each candidate)
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/29/2266573/-Vance-follows-Walz-at-firefighters-convention-and-gets-burned?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
New thread.