After the extraordinarly upheavals of last month, forecasts and polling aggregates suggest the US presidential election campaign has been in a holding pattern for over a fortnight, in which Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump on the national popular vote by an amount that makes it anyone’s guess as to who should be favoured for the Electoral College. Nate Silver’s model has Harris’s poll lead at 47.0% to 44.5% (Robert F. Kennedy, who is reportedly on the cusp of dropping out and endorsing Trump, is now down to 4.2%), converting to a 53.7% chance of a Harris victory compared with 45.9% for Trump (the balance being “no majority”). At state level, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada are essentially rated dead heats, which would make Pennsylvania the decider. The Economist’s forecast is slightly narrower on win probability, at 51% for Harris and 48% for Trump, but is in all respects remarkably similar to Silver’s. Adrian Beaumont has more at The Conversation.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of the US election. The open thread for general discussion is here.
From Nate Silver 40m ago via Substack:
Just a quick warning that if RFK Jr. drops out, in principle it’s simple just to reverse out the third party adjustment and default to the non-RFK version of the polls, but it’s probably like 10ish hours of work to make sure everything is working properly.
So that probably means a few of days of model downtime, given that I’m busy AF and would have to split that work over a couple of days. Or we might continue to publish the with-RFK version in the interim.
“The Economist’s forecast is slightly narrower on win probability, at 51% for Harris and 48% for Trump …”
… and 1% for a tie?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/08/21/democratic-national-convention-harris-trump-election-updates/#link-DK4UXRAEJVFPPF7OPOIS457IIQ
And then Netanyahu has Trump in his other ear begging him not to do a ceasefire deal until after the election.
Tim Walz birthplace Nebraska, like Maine, are the only states to split the EC delegates, allocating 1 per their 2 electoral districts. And some polling today…
Nebraska 2nd House Polling:
Bacon (R): 46%
Vargas (D): 44%
Remington / Aug 17, 2024 / n=656
NE-2 Presidential Polling:
Harris (D): 50%
Trump (R): 42%
Remington / Aug 17, 2024 / n=656
Some more Latino poll trends….
(AZ, NV, NC, PA, TX) – Hispanic Voter Polling:
August:
Harris: 60%
Trump: 29%
Kennedy: 7%
April:
Biden 47%
Trump: 34%
Kennedy: 12%
GQR Research/VoteLatino
There’s also an ME-2 poll today showing Harris well up. However the polls were heavily in favour of Biden in 2020 only for Trump to win it.
Otth, this pollster (uni New Hampshire) wasn’t polling ME-2 in 2020.
Vance speaks to crowd of tens as Trump campaign deflates
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/21/2264804/-Vance-speaks-to-crowd-of-tens-as-Trump-campaign-deflates?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_2&pm_medium=web
”
Josh Marshall
@joshtpm
I mean this is a full pan of JD’s Kenosha event. Seriously, 60 people? It like a speech to the county chess club. (watch the video)
CNN reporting on the effect of Oprah campaigning for Harris Walz
Kennedy is scheduled to hold a press conference in Phoenix on Friday (US time).
Presumably he’ll tell us what we already know. Then he will live in hope of a Trump victory and the cabinet position that Trump has “promised” him.
Ven:
Thursday, August 22, 2024 at 8:20 am
At that rate, Vance will soon be rallying from a phone booth & then not filling it.
Trump’s protection from rotten tomatoes?
Asheboro: At his first outdoor rally since last month’s attempted assassination, Donald Trump spoke from behind bulletproof glass on Wednesday in North Carolina at an event focused on national security. On politics, he called his predecessor Barack Obama “nasty” for his comments the night before at the Democratic National Convention.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/world-is-on-fire-trump-holds-first-outdoor-rally-since-assassination-attempt-20240822-p5k4b7.html
Taylor Swift has just flown from London to Tennessee – hysterical speculation of her next stop…
If she does appear on the final DNC day, she should do a 10 minute version of ‘If I Were a Man’, and change the lyrics up a little 🙂
It is just as well that Trump never makes nasty comments.
Re Latino poll trends in TX
If Trump drops 5 points among Hispanic/Latino voters in Texas he’s in a spot of bother in that state.
On top of that, a seismic demographic shift consisting of young, mostly first time Latino voters is about to engulf the state.
https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-latino-vote-2024-us-presidential-election
sprocket_says:
Thursday, August 22, 2024 at 11:19 am
She won’t do that. She’s smarter than that.
It is sad that anyone, including Trump, has to campaign behind bullet-proof glass.
Compact Crank , didn’t you see the coach of Team USA ‘s speech? He’s no lightweight.
Maybe doing a set at DNC but no endorsement is an option. You’d think we’d know about it tho. Lots of prep.
As for WBs and ABs posts at head of thread and in The Conversation…. I don’t subscribe to the theory that these conferences will give a sizeable bounce followed by a slump. Not this year anyway. People are too set in their preferences and the Biden pullout has already boosted the Democrat chances. It switched people on who otherwise might have only tuned in come the convention.
Harris will be wanting steady improvement in polling tho. I just don’t see it as a roller coaster trajectory. It will either stay close or slowly start to meander to one side or the other. I’d like to think that the renewed energy in the Democrat campaign will slowly pay dividends.
There will be plenty of polls next week to prove me wrong wrt a bounce.
Kerr isn’t selling anything. Swift is.
I’d be pleasantly surprised if she turned up.
On Taylor Swift, Swifties are a bit like cat ladies. There are a lot of them. They are such a large demographic they have been the surveyed:
“According to a 2023 survey by Morning Consult, in the U.S., 53% of adults said they were fans of Swift, of whom 44% identified as Swifties and 16% as her “avid” fans. Of the fans, 52% were women while 48% were men. Racially, the 74% of the fans were white, 13% were Black, 9% were Asian, and 4% from other races. Politically, 55% of the fans were Democratic, 23% were Republican, and 23% were independent. In terms of generations, 45% are millennials, 23% are baby boomers, 21% are Generation X, and 11% are Generation Z.”
Regardless of whether you like her music or not, Swifties are highly organised, often helping each other reach concerts. If they did that for an election, it could materially increase voting turnout.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/marisadellatto/2023/03/14/more-than-half-of-us-adults-say-theyre-taylor-swift-fans-survey-finds/
Perhaps Swift is pissed off at Trump’s hilariously desperate use of AI to make out that she was supporting him, and that has emboldened her to endorse Harris?
One thing for sure the DNC live music shits on the GOP convention.
Age is catching up to Clinton:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cqmpgp5kkJ8
Turning 100 on October 1, I hope Carter makes a cameo zoom appearance.
Mavis says:
Thursday, August 22, 2024 at 2:06 pm
Age is catching up to Clinton:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cqmpgp5kkJ8
It is, but he is younger than trump.
Pete Buttigieg was very, very good, so was Josh Shapiro!
Maybe Taylor Swift will make an appearance tomorrow – their schedule for Thursday is very light on, just Kamala Harris, before her will be Adam Kinzinger(one of the biggest Republican critics of Trump), and Pink will be performing live.
Trump is laying the groundwork to do a repeat of 2020 if he loses this election. The usual GOP efforts on voter suppression are underway but it’s unknown whether MAGA will again resort to violence.
Would be surprised if Swift appeared at the DNC. She endorsed Biden in 2020 and supported Harris’ run as VP then as well. Republicans with their childish culture war shit have done more to motivate Swifties than anything Swift herself has done.
citizen @ 9:20am
I think he should do this again, just to remind us of what Obama said. And then remind us again. I’ve already watched the clip probably half a dozen times. The comedic timing and facial expressions are impeccable.
citizen @ 2:46pm
Given the option, my hunch is that he will. But if he does at least he won’t have the office of the President to cheer it on, and counter measures will have been prepared.
Some joy and hope.
https://youtu.be/se-didBGn8A
Great song.
The original:
https://youtu.be/R-ZplG81oZg
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gimme_Hope_Jo%27anna
Turnout v voter suppression.
Which will win out in the end?
This time the POTUS will be a Dem.
Laura Norder will be locked and loaded for the slightest sign of a MAGA revolt.
RFK is still going to be on the ballot in a bunch of states, yeah? Given how disengaged many of his supporters likely are, I wonder how many of them we even be aware he has dropped out?
Tim Walz nomination acceptance speech at DNC
Tim Walz positively nails his big DNC moment (watch video)
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/21/2264930/-Tim-Walz-positively-nails-his-big-DNC-moment?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
Now tell me why you don’t like him.
TK
Harris-Walz may or may not get poll bounce but Walz was exposed to much bigger audience.
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Mavissays:
Thursday, August 22, 2024 at 9:19 am
Ven:
Thursday, August 22, 2024 at 8:20 am
At that rate, Vance will soon be rallying from a phone booth & then not filling it.
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When Walz had his rally (without Harris) in Nebraska he had thousands of people attending his rally.
Turning all that enthusiasm into the ground game is what will make the difference now.
Harris upended Trump’s electoral fortunes. Just look at North Carolina.
The state, which Trump won in both 2016 and 2020, had for months looked like an easy win.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/21/trump-harris-battleground-states-00175576
“Last month, Donald Trump and his team were still predicting blue states like Minnesota, Virginia, New Jersey and New Mexico could become battlegrounds this fall. Now, he’s shoring up a purple one.
On Wednesday, Trump made his third visit in four weeks to North Carolina — a state he won twice and where he was solidly leading President Joe Biden in polling over the last year.
Trump’s visit here, tucked between campaign stops this week in several swing states that he lost in 2020 while Democrats gathered in Chicago for their convention, was another sign of the dramatic change in his electoral fortunes after Vice President Kamala Harris moved to the top of the ticket.
Trump’s most loyal supporters in Asheboro, a ruby-red patch of the state, lined up for hours to attend, showing the strength of his MAGA base. It was also his first outdoor rally since surviving an attempted assassination last month, and law enforcement officers with rifles were more noticeable than usual on the airplane hangar roofs around the rally site.”
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Boerwarsays:
Thursday, August 22, 2024 at 4:28 pm
Turning all that enthusiasm into the ground game is what will make the difference now.
”
BWI was neverever involved in campaigning in my life, not even for my favourite political party but I heard campaigning is tough and I believe that. It is hard grind and hard sell even with an inspiring leader at the top. Hence, people need to be enthusiastic to volunteer for campaigning.
After Biden dropped and Harris was endorsed by Biden 10s of thousands of volunteers signed up for campaining.
That’s my dad’: Tim Walz’s son’s tearful reaction to speech(video)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/clyw7rwl7l2o
Wow!
GOP megadonor drops another $50M into pro-Trump super PAC
Timothy Mellon has now given $115 million this cycle to the group.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/20/timothy-mellon-maga-inc-00175249
“A reclusive Republican megadonor gave $50 million to a pro-Trump super PAC in July, following two other massive donations to boost the former president this cycle.
Timothy Mellon, a longtime GOP donor and heir to the Mellon banking fortune, has now given $115 million to the group, Make America Great Again Inc., since the start of 2023. That makes him by far the largest donor to the super PACs backing Donald Trump’s candidacy this cycle.
Mellon also previously gave $25 million to a super PAC backing Democrat-turned-independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s presidential bid over five separate donations dating back to 2023. His last donation to that super PAC was in April.
A MAGA Inc. filing Tuesday with the Federal Election Commission showed the new donation from Mellon was dated July 15, less than a week before President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for the Democratic nomination.”
Bill Clinton struck speechless for first time ever by Trump’s weirdness(video)
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/21/2264907/-Bill-Clinton-struck-speechless-for-first-time-ever-by-Trump-s-weirdness?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_7&pm_medium=web
“Former President Bill Clinton spoke at Wednesday night’s Democratic National Convention, and he reminded everyone why, at least until Barack Obama came along, he was considered the party’s greatest communicator.
Clinton joked about Donald Trump’s bizarre boasts of being respected by the world’s various dictators.
“Look, you gotta give it to him,” Clinton said. “He’s a good actor. With a straight face, he cited as evidence of the respect that existed for us when he was there, the presidents of North Korea and Russia.”
Clinton continued. “When you send a signal to the other countries, you want them to know, whether they agree with you or not, at least that you’re on the level. Here’s where you are, and what you believe. What are they supposed to make of these endless tributes to the late, great Hannibal Lecter?”
“President Obama once gave me the great honor of saying I was the explainer in chief,” Clinton continued. “Folks, I’ve thought and thought about it. And I don’t know what to say.”
IMO, Bill Clinton wss a great communicator.
Mike Carlton met Bill Clinton at the get together organised by Australian PM Howard(?) when Clinton visited as POTUS.
Note that Carlton is irreverent when it comes to polilticians. Carlton said in his radio show about his meet with Clinton: He is charming. He makes you feel that you are the most important person in the world when you are in front of him.
Some quant + qual on Walz v Vance.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZOvoy7B8pKE
Wow! I though last night’s convention was amazing. Walz and his kids have everyone ugly crying, including me!
How awful are Republicans trying to ‘other’ these people. Harris and Walz are the normal ones. Trump and Vance are the crazy weirdos.
I haven’t seen Bill Clinton’s speech yet, but I thought he gave the best speech at the 2012 DNC. here’s an analysis: 10 rhetorical strategies that made Bill Clinton’s DNC speech effective
When a malignant narcissist is on the loose, there can be only one Jesus. And it ain’t Jesus.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvI2q6Rbmx0
Ven, I remember what Carlton said about Clinton.
it stuck in my mind because it explained the importance of this sort of person to politics. Not just the oratory… but the charisma. The ability to sell ideas without being smarmy, without threats, without sowing fear and division.
I would love to track down the way Carlton said it. iirc, he gave the impression he was completely besotted with Clinton.
I would agree with Confessions that Harris and Walz are refreshingly normal compared to Trump and Vance.
To get an idea of how extreme Trump and Vance are, it is worth some time reading through the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025. It is literally a 900 page long diatribe against abortion, gay rights and all things “woke”
https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf
Incidentally I checked the part on their military manifesto. It prescribes building a “355 ship navy”. This would include 72+ SSNs and SSBNs. That number would preclude giving any SSNs to Australia in AUKUS, amongst many other problems.
But don’t worry, they advocate more heavily arming Australia, Canada and UK. And they elsewhere advocate getting more revenue out of foreign military sales. So whether or not we get SSNs, we should be paying more. Great!
THe document reads as though it was written by people convinced that the world revolves around USA, and that is exactly how God intended it.