US presidential election minus 11 weeks

Polling from the US settles into an equilibrium suggesting an impossibly close race.

After the extraordinarly upheavals of last month, forecasts and polling aggregates suggest the US presidential election campaign has been in a holding pattern for over a fortnight, in which Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump on the national popular vote by an amount that makes it anyone’s guess as to who should be favoured for the Electoral College. Nate Silver’s model has Harris’s poll lead at 47.0% to 44.5% (Robert F. Kennedy, who is reportedly on the cusp of dropping out and endorsing Trump, is now down to 4.2%), converting to a 53.7% chance of a Harris victory compared with 45.9% for Trump (the balance being “no majority”). At state level, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada are essentially rated dead heats, which would make Pennsylvania the decider. The Economist’s forecast is slightly narrower on win probability, at 51% for Harris and 48% for Trump, but is in all respects remarkably similar to Silver’s. Adrian Beaumont has more at The Conversation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

561 comments on “US presidential election minus 11 weeks”

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  1. ”
    Team Katichsays:
    Thursday, August 22, 2024 at 6:26 pm
    Ven, I remember what Carlton said about Clinton.
    it stuck in my mind because it explained the importance of this sort of person to politics. Not just the oratory… but the charisma. The ability to sell ideas without being smarmy, without threats, without sowing fear and division.

    I would love to track down the way Carlton said it. iirc, he gave the impression he was completely besotted with Clinton.”

    I think Carlton said something like this about Clinton: I did not have much of an impression about him one way or other till I met him. Now I know why he is so successful as a politician. A politician has to relate to his people and he did that quite charmingly and effectively.

  4. ‘Socrates says:
    Thursday, August 22, 2024 at 6:39 pm

    I would agree with Confessions that Harris and Walz are refreshingly normal compared to Trump and Vance.

    To get an idea of how extreme Trump and Vance are, it is worth some time reading through the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025. It is literally a 900 page long diatribe against abortion, gay rights and all things “woke”
    https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf

    Incidentally I checked the part on their military manifesto. It prescribes building a “355 ship navy”. This would include 72+ SSNs and SSBNs. That number would preclude giving any SSNs to Australia in AUKUS, amongst many other problems.

    But don’t worry, they advocate more heavily arming Australia, Canada and UK. And they elsewhere advocate getting more revenue out of foreign military sales. So whether or not we get SSNs, we should be paying more. Great!

    THe document reads as though it was written by people convinced that the world revolves around USA, and that is exactly how God intended it.’
    ———————————–
    Both parties routinely make commitments to a large increase in the USN and they routinely never get there. For decades it was to be a 400 ship navy. Now they are back to 355. The long term trend is that the unit prices go up and up and up and the ship numbers go down and down and down.

  6. I posted earlier Tim Walz son Gus Walz was crying at DNC when his father accepted his nomination. I read in the comments section of Tim Walz speech article that I posted @4:06 pm that
    apparently Gus is neurodivergent (I don’t know what that means).
    They discussed whether they(Republicans) will attack Gus Walz for crying. They discussed that when Republicans were “conservative”, they attacked Amy Carter and Chelsea Clinton.
    Now they are MAGA Republicans. So the chances of them not attacking Gus Walz are pretty low.

  7. Oops!
    ”
    Vensays:
    Thursday, August 22, 2024 at 8:32 pm
    He (Tim Walz) walzed in and it out of the park.”
    Vensays:
    Thursday, August 22, 2024 at 8:32 pm
    should read
    He (Tim Walz) walzed in and hit it out of the park.

  9. Seriously guys this is bordering on “I see it but I dont believe it”

    DNC Day 2 CRUSHED Trump in Ratings by a Stunning 55%. Combined Audience of 57 Million Watched Day 1

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/21/2264865/-DNC-Day-Two-CRUSHES-Trump-in-Ratings-by-Stunning-55-Combined-57-Million-Watched-On-Day-One?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

    “This is gonna drive you know who crazy (crazier). The ratings for television viewership are in for day two of the Democratic convention. It shows Dems outpaced the GOP’s day two broadcast by a stunning 55%.

    The DNC also released data for day one’s viewership. It finds 57 million watched part or all of day one’s events.

  11. Yesterday voters rejected DeSantis-backed school board candidates in my county and across FL

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/21/2264827/-Yesterday-voters-rejected-DeSantis-backed-school-board-candidates-in-my-county-and-across-FL?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

    In Pinellas County, one of the school board incumbents targeted by DeSantis and MAGA won by nearly 40 percentage points and another one by nearly 10 percentage points. The third incumbent failed to get to 50%, so will be in a runoff in November with one of the two MAGA candidates that tried to defeat her. In Hillsborough County, the two school board incumbents targeted by DeSantis and MAGA won my margins of 16% and 18%. ”

    “DeSantis and MAGA were not just soundly defeated in school board elections in the Tampa Bay region, but across the state of Florida. DeSantis backed 23 school board candidates in school districts around the state, and just six of them won. 11 lost their races and six are headed to a runoff — even though, as noted below, DeSantis tried to pick candidates that he thought would win anyway. Perhaps most deliciously, a DeSantis-based school board member in Sarasota County, incumbent Karen Rose, who had been allied with Moms for Liberty co-founder Bridget Ziegler (that’s the anti-LGBTQ hypocrite known for being in a three-way tryst with her disgraced husband and another woman), was ousted from her post. Also, in Broward County in South Florida, two conservative board members who were appointed by DeSantis to the school board in 2022 handlily lost their seats to liberal-leaning challengers.”

  12. Plenty more weirdness has been revealed about the Republican VP nomineee and the rest of the right wing loons that want to “rule” the US.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/22/jd-vance-speech-extremist-far-right-book

    Thankfully I think a majority of US citizens are waking up to what these people want to do. Trump is just their useful idiot.

    Although they are a tiny minority, there are religious nutters, and worse, people who pretend to be religious here in Australia who have similar aims.

  13. I have doubts as to whether Vance took his dear granny’s advice. I think he might be living a lie, which most likely accounts for the garbage that comes from his gob. To think, if Trump wins he’d assume the presidency – scarry stuff.

  16. W.R.T my post @9:29 pm

    Sarasota County here. Trump won by 10 points, 54-44 in 2020. Progressive Liz Barker defeated incumbent Moms for Liberty, DeSantis-backed Karen Rose 51-49 — a 6-point swing. Incumbent Democrat Tom Edwards, similarly targeted by DeSantis (in no small part because he’s gay) got 55% of the vote and avoided a runoff.

    if there’s a 6-point swing statewide — even considering how many Rs moved here during COVID — then FL may very well be in play.

  17. What a game of footy, momentum and enthusiasm too much for Manly to control and contain.

    Ok, let’s get to business.

    Introduction to the thread: Nate Silver’s poll lead converts to a 54% to 46% victory for Harris. The Economist’s forecast is a 51% victory for Harris.

    We have a clear difference with the betting markets:

    Donald 52%
    Kamala 48%

    Trump is your fav.

  19. [‘Chicago: Actor Mindy Kaling, who hosted day three of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, acknowledged the part Nancy Pelosi played in convincing President Joe Biden to quit seeking reelection.

    “The woman who was doing brat before brat was brat, the mother of dragons, Nancy Pelosi,” Kaling said as she introduced the former speaker of the US House of Representatives to the stage.

    Pelosi opened her convention speech with a sense of gratitude for Biden.

    “Thank you, Joe,” Pelosi said after going through Biden’s legislative achievements.

    Then she added, “I know that Vice President [Kamala] Harris is ready to take us to new heights”.

    It was a moment that sidestepped the challenging conversation that led to Harris becoming the Democratic nominee, a dramatic act that catalysed a sense of excitement and optimism in the party about its chances against Republican Donald Trump.

    Earlier that day, Pelosi hadn’t wanted to detail her fateful conversation with Biden in which she expressed her concerns about Democrats losing the White House this November if he sought to return.

    Speaking in the cathedral-like University Club of Chicago, she initially filibustered when asked about what she told Biden before he exited the 2024 race. Pelosi insisted Biden’s choice was his own. But when pressed, the California lawmaker said she needed to do what was necessary to stop Trump from returning to the White House.’] – SMH

  20. Betting markets mean zero in this stage of the political game.

    If betting was such a sure thing we wouldn’t need to work.

    So, you’re putting your lifetime investments on Trump then, according to the betting markets?

    Looks like an easy collect!

    ps just put another hundred on Kamala/Walz team on TAB @$1.92 to win as opposed to Trump @ $1.85.

    Don’t know what you’re getting excited about Centre, but it sure isn’t another Trump win!

  23. Good luck with getting $2.10, Centre!

    Can you get that bookies site so that I, and any others here can load up?

    Saw you dropped that and went to bed so, fake call as usual.

  24. “THe document reads as though it was written by people convinced that the world revolves around USA, and that is exactly how God intended it.”

    Surely that’s better for the world and to deter the bad actors, than Trump’s isolationism under the heading of ‘America First’?

  26. Surprise! Trump is lying about protest chaos at DNC

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/22/2264832/-Surprise-Trump-is-lying-about-protest-chaos-at-DNC?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web

    “On Wednesday, Donald Trump took to his Truth Social site to express his disgust about protests taking place at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. To no one’s surprise, the Republican candidate for president was exaggerating and outright lying.

    ?1724267193
    ”

    “But as The Washington Post reports, protests near the convention center have disintegrated into “farce.” Barely one-tenth of the predicted number of protesters appeared and the park across the street from the convention is filled with stacks of pre-printed protest signs that no one showed up to carry.

    “There are more reporters than protesters,” said one man selling buttons near the convention hall.

    But reports from the ground didn’t stop Trump’s running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, from following Trump campaign tradition and making up some alternative facts of his own. At his sparsely attended appearance in Wisconsin, he called Chicago “the murder capital of the United States of America” and said that going to the DNC location at the United Center qualified Gov. Tim Walz to “actually, accurately say that he visited a combat zone.””

    Another whopper lie by Trump like the AI generated images about Harris-Walz rally crowds. This is seriously getting dangerous and deranged

  28. During his speech on DNC third night, Former President Bill Clinton gave partially ad-libbed, nearly 30-minute speech. “You’re going to have a hard time believing this, but so help me. I triple-checked it,” he said. “Since the end of the Cold War in 1989, America has created about 51 million new jobs. I swear, I checked this three times. Even I couldn’t believe it. What’s the score? Democrats 50, Republicans one.”

  29. A new low for MAGAts – going after 17 yo children for the terrible act of displaying emotion in public. But this new Democrat party isn’t responding with outrage, but with mockery and shoving it back at them.

  30. Republicans are flailing in response to fantastic DNC

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/22/2264972/-Republicans-are-flailing-in-response-to-fantastic-DNC?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_3&pm_medium=web

    “On Thursday morning, however, “Fox & Friends” got Trump on the phone and tried their best to keep him roughly on the subject of the DNC through a rambling call. An attempt to get Trump to react to a portion of Walz’s speech generated a response that included: Biden on a beach, homeless people in San Francisco, World War I graves, Afghanistan, and Charlottesville—absolutely none of which were part of the clip Trump was asked about.

    “Charlottesville, they use Charlottesville, totally discredited, you know Biden gets up all the time and says Charlottesville, he ran because Charlottesville. He got run out of office by the Democrats, they did a coup on him, and he’s sitting someplace in California on a beach, and because he’s in California it’s [a] crime-ridden, crime-ridden place. It’s not the same place …

    It goes on. It goes on a lot. It goes on until one of the Fox friends finally jumps in to interrupt Trump and try to anchor him back to this reality. Trump follows up by claiming that Vice President Kamala Harris “made the decision” on how America got out of Afghanistan, that we should have stayed “because of China,” and has to be reined in again while talking about people falling out of planes.

    “They don’t talk about Biden. The day Biden spoke, that morning, in Congress, they said that he stole $27 million. I have not seen that story anywhere but a very light mention on Fox, to be honest, much lighter than it should be,” Trump rambled. “If that was me that stole $27 million, it would be headlines, they wouldn’t even be talking about the convention.”

    ““Remember when Biden sent Kamala to Europe to stop the war in Ukraine. She met with Putin, and then three days later, he attacked,” Trump claimed. “How did she do? Do you think she did a good job? She met with Putin to tell him, ‘Don’t do it.’ And three days later, he attacked; that’s when the attack started.”

    Harris didn’t meet with Putin before the Ukraine invasion. She has never met with Putin.

    There’s nothing like ending the long interview with Trump with Fox hosts sitting on their hands, wincing over having to admit to his massive lie.”

  34. Do we know what time, Sydney time, is Kamala Harris due to start giving her speech?

    The Earth-Mother prays that it isn’t a flop.

  35. Some polling snippets

    NE-2 is a Republican held seat in Tim Walz’s birthplace

    NE-02 House Polling:

    Vargas (D): 48%
    Bacon (R): 43%

    Change Research / Aug 17, 2024 / n=437

    (Democratic Commissioner)

    And Texas..

    Texas Senate Polling:

    Cruz (R): 47% (-)
    Allred (D): 45% (+1)
    Brown (L): 3% (-)

    YouGov / Aug 16, 2024 / n=1365

    (% change with June)

    Texas Presidential Polling:

    Current Poll:
    Trump (R): 50%
    Harris (D): 45%
    Kennedy (I): 2%

    Previous June Poll:
    Trump (R): 49%
    Biden (D): 40%
    Kennedy (I): 5%

    YouGov / Aug 16, 2024 / n=1365

  37. I set a calendar reminder to do a call back to Alamaba’s post 2 weeks ago. They said that Harris would have fallen behind in the polls by now.

  38. ”
    ScromoIIsays:
    Friday, August 23, 2024 at 8:05 am
    Do we know what time, Sydney time, is Kamala Harris due to start giving her speech?

    The Earth-Mother prays that it isn’t a flop.
    ”

    Everyone (as Trump says) is waiting with bated breath after steller performace by Walz to accept V-P nomination.

  39. ”
    Mostly Interestedsays:
    Friday, August 23, 2024 at 8:37 am
    I set a calendar reminder to do a call back to Alamaba’s post 2 weeks ago. They said that Harris would have fallen behind in the polls by now.
    ”

    Alabama says: wait till Harris gives her acceptance speech.

  40. Another busy day ahead, so I’ve just one thought to add. When the Dems were “workshopping” their conference my imagination has them writing ideas on a big whiteboard and then deciding which of them gets to use it in their speech. Some would be shared, like equality, and joy. Walz would get the best team metaphors. But I can see the relish of the face of the former president accepting that he, a black man, would be allowed to mention a particular white man’s problem with “size”. (Imagination rulz.)

    More seriously though. The build up for Harris has been tremendous. That’s risky. Expectations set the bar. Though “Ka-ma-la” has a lovely three-point beat to it. Eyes on the prize, folks.

  41. Did anyone watch the doco on Channel 9 last night Trump v Harris. I was skeptical but it was not bad.
    Ended by saying it’s now a very close race.
    Lots of positive commentary on Kamala, very little on Trump.
    A repug lady with red hair and a green top really irritated me, but I could not put a finger on why.

  42. Trump has promised to widen the scope of the death penalty to not just the most heinous murders (of white people), but to sex traffickers and a mandatory life sentence for all child traffickers.

    That will definitely get the vote up with law-and-order people. Perhaps he should go further: in China, you can get the death penalty for laundering as little as a few million dollars (and life without parole for even a few hundred thousand). But would that possibly make him a hypocrite?

    Oh, and Trump has apparently acknowledged he came up a little bit short in 2020, that is, he is publicly admitting that he lost the election.

  43. Re TX senate race.
    Cruz leads Allred by 2 points with 6% undecided.
    With a demographic tsunami bearing down on Austin, now’s the perfect time for Ted to take a vacation to Cancún.

  45. Donald Trump will host a “J6 Awards Gala” at Trump National Golf Club Bedminster on September 5th. Attendees will have a chance to win a plaque commemorating the MAGA community’s purchase of numerous copies of Trump’s “Justice for All” song, which briefly earned him a spot on the Billboard music chart.

    https://meidasnews.com/news/trump-will-host-january-6th-awards-gala-in-september

    I bet this will be moved to a venue not associated with Trump.

  46. At the DNC, a string of speakers with military or intelligence community credentials – each pushing the Kamala Commander-in-Chief message.

    Maybe Dotard can use Commander Kamala as her new nickname?

  48. Vensays:
    Friday, August 23, 2024 at 8:46 am
    ”
    Mostly Interestedsays:
    Friday, August 23, 2024 at 8:37 am
    I set a calendar reminder to do a call back to Alamaba’s post 2 weeks ago. They said that Harris would have fallen behind in the polls by now.
    ”

    Alabama says: wait till Harris gives her acceptance speech.
    ______________
    In a few hours Alabama says: wait until after the debate?

  49. One of the concerns I share with many is the reliability of poll aggregates. 2016 and 2020 showed the aggregates to favour the democrats. Many reasons were given for this… but I won’t go into them here. What I am interested in is how likely this is to happen in 2024.

    Now, pollsters will want to improve and fix any problems in their methodology if possible. But that just simply may not be possible without spending a lot of money. And, the problems may have been one offs. So I won’t go down that rabbit hole.

    However, poll aggregators do adjust for house effects. That is, if a pollster is regularly biased toward the democrats, the aggregator will adjust for that (to varying degrees). But what is that bias based on? Previous elections? Or just an average of polls?

    I read up on an old article for 538. They used to calculate the house effects by averaging all the polls using weighting. Part of that weighting is based on pollster reliability in previous elections. So the lean is adjusted, in part, on previous elections. but not directly. So, a pollster who got it wrong in 2020 by 4pts to the Dems isn’t getting their polls adjusted by 4 pts. Because the polling average was out by 4pts in that election. But, pollsters who were correct in 2020 increased their rating and hence their weighting in calculating the average that calculates another pollsters house effect.

    I think.

    So whilst we definitely should be concerned about poll aggregate reliability, we can also hope both pollster and aggregator are trying to improve.

  50. parkySP @ #98 Friday, August 23rd, 2024 – 10:15 am

    Vensays:
    Friday, August 23, 2024 at 8:46 am
    ”
    Mostly Interestedsays:
    Friday, August 23, 2024 at 8:37 am
    I set a calendar reminder to do a call back to Alamaba’s post 2 weeks ago. They said that Harris would have fallen behind in the polls by now.
    ”

    Alabama says: wait till Harris gives her acceptance speech.
    ______________
    In a few hours Alabama says: wait until after the debate?

    After the debate Alabama says, when she is sworn in?

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