The second quarterly EMRS poll since the Tasmanian state election in March is little changed on the first, which in turn showed no radical change on the election result: the Liberals are up a point to 36%, Labor is down one to 27% and the Greens are down one to 14% and the Jacqui Lambie Network (naturally the survey period preceded their recent implosion) up one to 8%. The results at the election were Liberal 36.7%, Labor 29.0%, Greens 13.9% and Jacqui Lambie Network (which ran in four of the five electorates) 6.7%. However, Jeremy Rockliff has improved his preferred premier lead over Dean Winter, which is out to 45-30 from 40-32 in the latter’s debut result in the May poll. The poll was conducted August 14 to 21 from a sample of 1000.
It appears the Ferry situation, AFL stadium and JLN stuff hasn’t done them any harm.
Albanese a drag on the State Leaders?
Rocky shoulda lost skin over the terminal and the stadium, imo.
Though it appears he baited and switched Lambie, ha ha for that one.
Just really a steady as it goes.
The ALP is backing the stadium now so it is basically a non-political issue.
The blowing up of the ferry issue and JLN’s team breaking up was post the poll.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2024/08/emrs-surprise-boost-for-rockliff-in-pre.html
EMRS: Surprise Boost For Rockliff In Pre-Lamblowup Poll
Brief comments, not a lot to say about this one. Had rather more to say about the JLN bustup:
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2024/08/lambie-network-blows-up-after-only-five.html
The JLN looks set to go the same way as other political parties that don’t really present a clear policy stance other than some variation on Don Chipp’s formula of “keep the bastards honest!” In particular, his own party the Australian Democrats, as well as Nick Xenophon’s short-lived effort and Clive Palmer’s nonsense.
While I personally detest what the Greens have become since the true environmentalists like Brown and Milne lost control, they demonstrate the greater durability of a party which clearly stands for a certain set of ideas and values. The same applies to Pauline Hanson’s various efforts, and likewise the Katter Australia Party. All three of these parties have found niche positions within the political spectrum that other parties do not strongly represent.
Lambie’s political career began in a party that didn’t really stand for anything but the interests of its founder, then she did quite a good job at grasping hold of the Tasmanian Senator fly-in-the-ointment role that Brian Harradine so effectively played for many years. But, having then gained the balance of power at the State level, she was always going to need to find a way of wielding it to achieve some sort of clear objective. “The best interests of Tasmanians”, and some psychobabble pabulum about higher standards of governance, were never going to be enough to do the job. She is going to need to be able to point to some significant policy outcome of the Rockliff Government and to say “the JLN made that happen.” Forcing Ferguson’s resignation isn’t going to be nearly enough.
It is also starting to appear that her people management style is modelled on that of Miranda Richardson’s Queenie in Blackadder Season 2.
>The same applies to Pauline Hanson’s various efforts.
The only reason why Pauline hasn’t lost anybody recently is because Roberts somehow stuck around, and they only have one MP in Queensland parliament. Before that it was more or less guaranteed she’d lose anybody elected under her banner.
Nope – he’s gone! Apparently nowhere apart from the Australian has bothered to write about it (paywalled, although there are ways 😉 ), but he’s joining KAP. That’ll make Mirani interesting – he’s more likely to get Labor preferences than he would under the One Nation banner, but there’s a risk of him and Pauline’s new puppet coming third and fourth and handing the seat to the LNP (that happened a few times with the debris from the 1998 election). Plus, KAP have never won a seat south of Townsville, even with sitting MPs defecting to them.
Mark Latham and Rod Roberts in NSW have left the party as well, although Tania Mihailuk remains. They’ve got one each in the Vic and SA upper house who don’t seem to have done anything notable. One Nation’s Christmas parties must be pretty lonely affairs.