The Guardian has a report on the fortnightly Essential Research poll that doesn’t include its voting intention numbers, which we will get with the publication of the full report later today. It does include the pollster’s monthly personal ratings, which have Anthony Albanese at 40% approval (down three) and 50% disapproval (up four) and Peter Dutton unchanged at 42% and 41%. The poll also finds 44% support for Peter Dutton’s call for a pause to the arrival of Palestinians from Gaza with 30% opposed, with younger respondents having a notably more liberal view than older. Only 29% rated that Australia was on the right track, compared with 52% for the wrong track. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1129.
UPDATE: The primary vote intention numbers are Labor 29% (up one), Coalition 33% (down one), Greens 13% (down one) and One Nation 7% (steady), with 6% undecided. Labor now leads 48-46 on the 2PP+ measure, after a 47-47 result last fortnight.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition with a two-party lead of 50.5-49.5, reversing the result from last time. The primary votes are Labor 29.5% (down one), Coalition 39.5% (up one), Greens 13% (down half) and One Nation 4% (steady). The two-party measure that uses preference flows from the 2022 election has it at 50-50, after Labor lead 51-49 last time. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1701.
I had a paywalled piece in Crikey yesterday on the Northern Territory election, and what it likely portends for looming Queensland (quite a bit) and federal (rather less) elections.
The Labor people here talking about huge eligibility cuts to the NDIS as ‘something positive Labor has done’ are a complete disgrace.
Labor deciding to take a leaf out of Scott Morrison’s book and go back to do what he failed to do the NDIS, and take an axe to Labor’s last massive achievement in government as a party is not, in fact, something positive.
There’s a reason why all disability groups were screaming about the cuts – but when has any of the Labor people here given an iota of a damn about what any group actually affected by policy thought when it went against what Shorten wanted?
In much the same vein, people whinging about Labor and the LNP being viewed as one and the same should perhaps take issue with federal Labor’s recent habit of refusing to legislate anything of substance without gaining Peter Dutton’s approval.
OK. I’ve checked the Muslim Votes matter website.
This is the list of lower house seats they are targetting;
Blaxland, Watson, Calwell, Werriwa, McMahon, Bruce, Scullin, Holt, Parramatta, Wills, Lalor, Macarthur, Chifley, Barton, Burt, Fowler, Gorton, Gellibrand, Rankin, Cowan, Banks, Greenway, Fraser, Swan, Mitchell, Fenner, Makin, Moreton, Isaacs, Spence, Cooper, and Hawke.
Link: https://www.muslimvotesmatter.com.au/
‘Catprog says:
Thursday, August 29, 2024 at 9:08 pm
>Maybe affinity for the LNP comes with increasing age, or maybe their voter base is getting older and shrinking.
Or young people cannot buy homes or build wealth.’
———————————–
Today’s young people want wealth now.
The typical pattern in life forever is that people accrete wealth over time.
ALL the individual Boomers I knew as a young person started with nowt. We had nothing.
Urgh… the millenials are 30 and 40 these days… hardly youngsters and to pretend they have it the same as other generations when it comes to property ownership is astounding…
That said, it’s heartening to see the general reaction here to the census ridiculousness. It’s the worst example in a while of Labor trying to play 4D chess with an issue and just winding up kicking themselves in the shins (and handing easy votes to the Greens).
Shorten has just saved the NDIS from itself.
It was a runaway train. Silence from the Greens.
Part of that was the states and territories doing what they always do: progressively shifting state and territory costs to the Commonwealth. Silence from the Greens.
Part of that was crooks and spivs gaming the NDIS. Silence from the Greens.
Part of that was a guidelines shambles. From my personal knowledge there were some very weird ‘treatments’ for disabled people. Tourist trips from Melbourne to Cairns with family members tagging along as ‘carers’. Silence from the Greens.
Part of it was runaway over diagnoses to get on the gravy train. Advice to Mums to fill their family members with sugar and to keep them awake the night before assessments. Silence from the Greens.
Part of it was family members setting themselves up for life as disability ‘carers’. Their only ‘expertise’ being that the co-habited with the disabled client. Silence from the Greens.
Left to itself the NDIS was destroying itself through loss of credibility, through a significant lack of results, through being shonked by crooks. Silence from the Greens.
Anyone could set up to ‘assist’ disabled people. The spivs queued up. Silence from the Greens.
I have sympathy for some disabled people who are fearful of change but they needn’t be. Shorten has an almost fanatical interest in delivering what they need. Uproar and moral panic from the Greens. We’ll all be ruined! Hundreds of thousands of disabled people will miss out! And so on and so forth in an endless dreary desire to hack away at Labor. Meanwhile, they have put dread into the hearts of disabled people. Which they seem to want. They are certainly doing their best to stoke fear.
The historic reality? And it IS historic.
Shorten has just saved the NDIS for Australia’s disabled people. It was headed towards financial unsustainability. It is now financially sustainable. It had developed into a chaotic shambles under Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison.
It will now become fit for purpose.
I have no doubt that as Minister Shorten will keep an eagle eye on how the reforms work and whether there needs to be any further changes.
I have no doubt that the Greens will keep caterwauling. It is about the only thing they are truly good at.
I think that Labor’s decision on the census is pretty crass, but I understand why they think it was the decision they needed to make. I suspect the Dutton would have been all over it.
However, I’m not convinced that it’s the thing that will cause any voter to vote for or against any particular party.
Either cost of living is the issue or it’s not. I think it is. It’s the economy, stupid.
It’s the worst example in a while of Labor trying to play 4D chess with an issue and
__________________
It’s called nuance, and Labor are very good at it.
I’m just waiting for some idiot to mention the horseshoe theory and then I can go to bed.
Dave don’t you dare! 😉
More from Senator Payman.
Gosh. In fact, big golly gosh.
She now claims she was Labor’s diversity hire, amongst other things.
She is clearly determined to upset the party, and the ALP voters which put her in the Senate in the first place. My guess is that W.A. based labor voters will place her right down the bottom of the Senate ballot paper, hold their breath, and number the other boxes off behind the privacy of a ballot box curtain.
Link: https://www.msn.com/en-sg/news/other/labor-rebel-hits-back-at-her-old-party/ar-AA1oGE0M?ocid=BingNewsVerp
For Labor posters, I am afraid she is the gift that keeps on giving to the anti ALP posters & voters.
On top of the CFMEU shennanigans yesterday, a lot of damage is being caused to the ALP primary vote.
Prepare for ALP sub 30% primaries during Sept/Oct. It may even touch Julia Gillard Territory (ie: 26%). It may not happen with Newspoll this Sunday night, but it will happen. Newspoll is the Boss so take the lead from them.
To the Greens – expect your primary to start tracking above 15% on various polls over the next few months. Your lot hit 14% on a couple of early August polls. It’s dropped back a drip, but it will bounce back.
Oz politics is rivetting at the moment. The way the Labor voters have “preferenced” in the NT when they came third, is a big insight for all of us. There is clearly venom between Labor and the Greens out there in the community, especially in the tightly fought seats.
Arky – sort things out with LB too. You’re both good posters.
Catch up for the “lead up” to the QLD election.
Ciao!
nadia88
Oh, triple golly gosh.
Payman is useful idiot for Dutton and for no-one else. Dutton has just spent a fortnight harvesting Islamophobic votes and it worked beautifully. See Bludger Track. Quite a jump. Nothing like sowing and harvesting hatred, eh? (Dutton and Bandt should pull their heads in. But they won’t.)
Despite the Max canoodling the Mongols et al, the vast majority of unionists want nothing to do with the CFMEU’s gangsterism. There is zero evidence that this shifted any voting from Labor to the Greens.
However there IS some hard evidence on the pseph site.
The latest change in Bludger track has the Greens going DOWN .1% and the Coalition going UP .3%.
So your cause and effects ‘analysis’ is arse about.
Good post Nadia, and I look forward to any predictions given the muslin voting target list.
I’d love to hear what an actual pseph has to say about this, er, evidence.
It is interesting the Greens support the thugs in the CFMEU destroying the Union movement, and the shonks that were destroying the NDIS.
I suspect the ACTU will win, administrators will be appointed, the NDIS will survive and the Greens will not get the poll bounce they are trying so hard to achieve, but we will see.
The Greens have definitely proved they are not to be taken seriously.
Payman has got a very canny vote manipulation expert in Druery behind here.
Last thing labor needs.
Fred, what exactly do you have against due process and the rule of law?
Thanks nadia88.
Hope what you say comes to fruition.
I have to say, i watch your posts. See you at Qld ekection
Greens doubling their vote in the NT too, despite only fielding 11 candidates. Great result. Go the Greens. Greens are on the rise.
So the NDIS reforms changes the cost growth rate from 15% per year (5 times population growth), to 9% per year (3 times population growth). Yep, agree that the reforms are disappointing.
The problem the health industry lobby have is they can’t explain away the insanity of the cost increases. Like, many will smirk and say “cut defence” et al, well at 15% that is a doubling every 6 or so years, completely economy swallowing and sucking in other welfare programs too.
What Boer said on the NDIS. This is proper reform territory. Screaming cuts because runaway spending and rorts are being closed is asinine. This is Shorten’s legacy, he’s not out to ruin it. There’s no attempt here by the Greens to do a serious analysis of the changes, it’s just they see a chance to scream CUTS because the rate of increase in the NDIS is reduced. This isn’t even a policy dispute like housing where I might disagree with the Greens on rent freezes but at least it’s an actual policy difference. This is rank scaremongering when the Greens have no alternative but rorts and runaway spending continuing. No waiting to see how it works in practice, just whine now. Absolutely indefensible crap. Abbott style “Whyalla wipeout, 100 dollar lamb roast” level of manufactured scaremongering.
@piper – the Glenn Druery who was stitched up by the Animal Justice party AND by One Nation at the same election, whose entire claim to fame was manipulating group voting tickets which haven’t existed Federally since the 2016 election. Working with him is not a demonstration of Payman’s political smarts.
One thing’s for sure about this census thing: this time last week, nobody was talking about it, and now plenty of people are talking about it and most of them are pissed off at Labor.
The census isn’t until 2026, a year after the next election. Even then it would’ve been a non-issue (a decade after the country voted to let gay people get married, suddenly them being counted in the census would be such an issue?). Labor could so easily have let that sleeping dog lie, but no. Chalmers saying “we don’t want to open up a divisive debate in relation to this issue” – there was no debate! Labor created the debate by serving up yet another helping of “look, we’re completely indistinguishable from the Liberals, please don’t hurt us Mr Murdoch”. They’ve gone out of their way to make themselves look utterly spineless.
Grrr.
No one can seriously complain about growth of NDIS being reduced fron 15% plus to 8 or 9%.
The Census is used to determine government spending for the different demographics that make up Australian society. Young families need schools. Elderly Australians need community buses. Indigenous Australians need support services. I would think that LBGTIQ Australians also have specific needs. Such as:
“ A Victorian coroner who investigated the suicides of five young transgender women has recommended urgent investment to improve healthcare for trans and gender-diverse people.” ABC
Not to mention being counted might mean a lot towards people feeling that they do actually count and that the government cares.
Now the decision to remove the question from the Census has caused six Labor MPs to dissent. Who actually made this decision? Was it discussed in Caucus? As an individual act, this decision could lead to Labor losing some votes to the Greens. But more importantly, following on from Fatima Payman leaving the party, this just gives the impression of a divided party. This is the opposite of the unity to the party line that Labor demands from its MPs.
Labor is frightened of Dutton “weaponising” the issue.
“ We want to avoid the kind of nastiness and weaponisation of some of these issues” said Chalmers. Why is Labor so scared when the plebiscite on equal marriage rights was passed with overwhelming support? Most people wouldn’t care less about the question. They would just answer it or ignore it.
Is the real reason that Albanese is worried about the conservative Muslim vote after already having damaged their support due to his weak responses to the Israel-Gaza war?
Boerwar
Payman was a former Labor Senator.
Are you saying Labor appointed her to side with Dutton, to attack Labor. It’s getting nonsensical.
@Eddy – it would not surprise me if there is some kind of inane fear regarding the Muslim vote, as if it will be a question on a census that mentions transgender people that turns the vote of even the most conservative mullah.
This is not really increasing my opinion of Jim Chalmers or of the judgment of certain people who used to keep talking up Chalmers while trying to stir up leadership challenge stories.
Hi all
Haven’t been posting lately because of some personal health issues (not dying) which have left me a bit cloudy in the head recently and made it hard to express any deep thoughts or analyses. At times, even simple stuff has been tricky. Inside my head, I am fine and able to still function and think at my normal level. It’s just hard to put it out there right now. Sorry, hard to explain.
I won’t get into any current debates because I am not up for it. I am just checking in. I know it’s for the other thread but I did watch the DNC in its entirety. I have thoughts on it but I am not really up to expressing them right now. Hopefully things clear up soon, so I can get into it before the moment completely passes.
Anyway, I hope everyone’s well and not letting things get them down too much.
The Muslim Votes list of seats is all seats with a noteworthy Muslim voter presence. They haven’t yet picked candidates for the two they are paying particular attention to in Blaxland and Werriwa unless I missed it and none selected or announced anywhere else yet but they do have a few months to get the job done. Maybe we will end up with Muslim Federal election candidates in places the Liberals couldn’t get council election candidates registered for. How ironic.
Hard working construction tradies are now labelled as Mongol bikies, by…err Labor posters.
Thank fuck we have Max Chandler Mather and Adam Bandt to still stand up for decent hard working Australian tradesmen who just want to do their job and go home to their families.
Labor = pathetic.
Labor posters, go and hang around with the likes 0f Matt Comyn and Sally McThatcher. It’s where you belong.
Go!
*takes breath*
For people a few pages back (Arky, Kirsdarke, etc) talking about Labor preferences to the Greens and vice versa: check out the NT seat of Fannie Bay from last weekend’s election. It looks like the CLP have won the seat (with the Greens coming second) despite Labor leading the CLP in a traditional 2pp count, thanks to more Labor voters putting the CLP #2 than Greens voters. Obviously it’s just one seat in a very small parliament, but it can and does happen.
I think people are.overplaying the Muslim vote and downplaying the Christian vote re census…
I’m really sorry to hear that Wat, I hope you begin to feel better soon. Take care!
Bird of paradoxsays:
Thursday, August 29, 2024 at 10:48 pm
*takes breath*
==============================
Take breath indeed.
Who the hell is Sally McThatcher?
Hope you feel more like yahself soon Wat
Good link Bird, and I think it just highlights that preference flows are dependent on where who and when; we have seen examples of more Labor to green then green to Labor, more green to Labor then Labor to green, more Labor to liberal then green etc etc.
Some people follow preference directions, some don’t, and parties will change broad patterns for specific seats where it’s a knife fight
@nadia88
With regard to Muslim Votes Matter targets:
Blaxland: Jason Clare isn’t sleeping easy here. A Gaza indy or Steve Christou could win. Particularly the latter as he is capable of picking up Tory and Gaza Indy preferences. This is the kind of seat which is the reason for Labor’s spineless stance on the census. Its vote in the 2017 survey was ….. not good. Tilt IND (flip).
Watson: Tony Burke may be the most important minister in the government but isn’t sleeping easy here either. Independent Ziad Basyouny would have to either kick us into third (and win on our preferences), or somehow get over half of the Liberal preferences. This is the kind of seat which is the reason for Labor’s spineless stance on the census. Its vote in the 2017 survey was ….. not good. Tilt IND (flip).
Calwell: This is a possible mess because it is an open seat. I have heard reports that the grassroots are (rightfully) pissed off as they won’t get a say in preselection. The only way Labor could lose is to a community independent who highlights several grievances, not only Gaza so gets enough Tory preferences to win. Lean ALP.
Werriwa: If Gaza wasn’t an issue, I would say Tilt LIB. With Dutton there and with his stance on refugees, the Tories will have much more trouble winning, so again defeat for Anne Stanley relies upon a community independent who highlights several grievances, not only Gaza so gets enough Tory preferences to win. Lean ALP.
McMahon: The main danger here is Frank Carbone. He would be capable of getting both Tory and Gaza votes/preferences. Tilt IND (flip).
Bruce: This is primed for a boilover. I feel if an independent could attract support from WWC Liberals/UAP and the 13.8% Muslim population, Julian Hill could have real trouble. Lean ALP for now given lack of a clear Independent.
Scullin: Andrew Giles is a strong MP (look at 2019) and will survive easily. The ALP floor here is too high to lose. Safe ALP.
Holt: I haven’t spent much time in these parts but Cassandra Fernando will probably keep it, especially given she is a factional conservative within the party. Likely ALP.
Parramatta: Has Andrew Charlton been making connections with the grassroots? If not, this could be a 3-way contest with Tory losses amongst Muslims being cancelled out by gains amongst WWC voters. An Independent could be a threat here. Tilt ALP.
Wills: I have discussed this likely disaster in other posts. One of my concerns is losing Whitlam, Hawke and Keating’s seats in this election. We lost Rudd’s last time. Likely GRN (flip).
The remaining seats (Lalor, Macarthur, Chifley, Barton, Burt, Fowler, Gorton, Gellibrand, Rankin, Cowan, Banks, Greenway, Fraser, Swan, Mitchell, Fenner, Makin, Moreton, Isaacs, Spence, Cooper, and Hawke) will be covered in a further post tomorrow morning as it is very late now.
2nd, Giles will survive the heat death of the universe
So tell me 2nd of December why ,(1) a Liberal voter in any of those seats would second preference a Green or a Muslim or Carbone ahead of Labor, (2) why a Muslim Votes backer would preference a pro Israel Liberal over a Labor incumbent or (3) why a Muslim Votes backer would second preference a Green when the Greens support gay marriage, LGBTQI rights and other issues offensive to Islamic religion. None of those options seems plausible to me and certainly not enough to flip any seat anywhere purely on the Israel-Hamas war issue anyway. Over to you. Maybe I am missing something, like a brain.
A reduction in forecast future expenditure isn’t a cut.
Got it.
I look forward to seeing the new definition used from now on.
New thread.
Boerwar says:
Thursday, August 29, 2024 at 9:38 pm
Very good summary. Shorten never got the top job, but what he has done to strengthen NDIS should be applauded.
Spence said as well, a program that was running at 17% growth was a program that was about to break. State education programs were shifting every behavioural issue to NDIS. 10% of boys in primary school on the NDIS, it was never ever supposed to be a replacement for educational management. But the criminals in the Coalition tried to break the NDIS by allowing it to drown.
Labor fixed the NDIS so it works for the people who should be supported by it. Again the Greens weren’t going to allow this to happen.