The Australian has greeted the unofficial start of the campaign period for the October 26 Queensland state election with a Newspoll result that’s less bad for Labor than some of its polling this year, but still leaves little doubt about the likely result. The LNP is credited with a two-party lead of 55-45, out from 54-46 at the last such poll in March, although primary votes are little changed at Labor 30% (steady), LNP 42% (steady), Greens 12% (down one) and One Nation 8% (steady). Steven Miles is up three on approval to 41% and up two on disapproval to 51%, while David Crisafulli is up two to 49% and up four to 37%. Crisafulli leads 46-39 as preferred premier, compared with 43-37 in March. The poll was conducted last Thursday to Wednesday from a sample of 1047.
Just goes to show that getting rid of a longstanding leader to make way for someone from the next generation can sometimes help to revitalise an ailing government and give them an extra term of government that they might otherwise not have achieved.
But, in order for this strategy to work, the incoming leader needs to have some talent. From the first time I ever laid eyes on him I couldn’t work out whether the best word to describe him was “turkey” or “goose.” Strong claims can be made for either.
I’d like to embark on another of my periodic rants against the left factions of the ALP, but, truth to tell, Miles is only a faux lefty anyway, who is said to have started off in the right faction, but switched to the left because he saw more opportunities to get on.
I agree with the comment above – Miles comes across to me as a goose, or a deer stuck in the headlights. Cameron Dick would have been a far better opponent against Cresafulli.
30 seats wouldn’t be a total wipeout for Labor, it would give them a base to work from for 2028, especially if Cresafulli is another Campbell Newman.
They look to have the baseball bats all ready to go.
I note that South Australia had a 12 year Labor Government defeated by a one term Lib. Government and normal transmission was hastily resumed. This will be the case in Queensland. Another generation has to discover the do nothing, hapless Conservatives approach.
This is actually a four point improvement on primary vote for the ALP over the July 18 YouGov poll also for the Murdoch courier mail. The LNP has no real policies outside of being a bit tougher on youth crime in far Q. The ALP has a good story to tell on COL measures ( a way bigger issue than crime in recent polls) and LNP has no real ideas in this space. Also the LNP will have to counter a number of scare campaigns like asset sales and public service cuts. How this plays out in a campaign is anyone’s guess but things may end up being a lot better for ALP than 2012. Don’t get me wrong though, I cannot see anything other than an LNP win it’s just that this to me has a very different feeling to 2012.
it’s just that this to me has a very different feeling to 2012 ??
I feel a surprise awaits !
I hope voters think back to the last LNP Newman disaster !.
1934Pc: “it’s just that this to me has a very different feeling to 2012 ??
I feel a surprise awaits !
I hope voters think back to the last LNP Newman disaster !.”
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This was perhaps a conceivable scenario if the ALP had gone with Dick as leader rather than Miles. There is nothing special about Crisafulli and his team. Newman was a strong performer with a solid record as Lord Mayor of Brisbane and (quite bizarrely in retrospect) was perceived to be a moderate centrist. Nobody was to know back in 2012 that, once he was installed as Premier, he was going to display such ideological zeal and appalling judgement.
But Crisafulli doesn’t have anything like the political stature that Newman had back in 2012. Outside of the Townsville area, where he is well-known as a TV reporter, Crisafulli is a nobody: a blank sheet of paper onto which you can project anything you wish. A smart Labor team with a smart leader would perhaps have been able to paint Crisafulli as another Newman-in-waiting: on the surface a mild-mannered reporter, but one who might potentially climb into the phone box and emerge transformed as a maniacal surplus seeker, wreaking havoc on government services.
But the point here, as I posted earlier, is that you would need a smart Labor leader. Miles is a cross breed of a turkey and a goose. So he’s got Buckley’s.
1934pc: the amazing thing about all this is that this is a good government by nearly all measures. The LNP and our RW media has been condemning them as chaotic but they aren’t chaotic just because a biased media/ LNP says so. The LNP is relying on one issue to get them in and that’s fear of crime but a recent poll say 14% put crime as first order but more than 50% say cost of living. Miles who many disparage has been knocking it for six on COL . Everyone is aware also of the LNPs love affair with privatisation and service cuts ( anathema to most Qlders who dislike privatisation and know that the local footy coach or the guy who helps secure your roof after a cyclone is very likely a public sector worker). A scare campaign with plenty of 2012 Cando evidence, including Mr Crisifulli’s prominent role in that debacle is coming up to counter the LNPs dog whistle crime campaign. The sleeper will be the Dutton toxic nuclear reactors plan which many would believe Mr Crisifulli would wave through.
The copium is real thicccccc today.
Opposition don’t win elections. Governments lose them. Comparing the LNP today to the great achievements of Campbell Newman is only making me more excited in realising that QLD thinks so low of the ALP. That the central campaign policy of the ALP across the nation for the last 40 years of ‘we’ll give you free stuff’ is not being welcomed.
Talk about a 2 birds one stone win. QLD may not vote ALP for a generation if they are this far ahead despite all this negativity towards the LNP.
I wonder how much of what is coming is backwash from and retribution for the Voice referendum. If this is the case, I don’t think that Queensland voters are looking back to the halcyon days of Campbell Newman. I think they are looking back to good old days of the Bjelke-Petersen years.
Princeplanet: “Miles who many disparage has been knocking it for six on COL .”
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Do you seriously believe that voters are so stupid that they can’t see things like sudden, dramatic cuts in public transport fares and electricity bills in the lead-up to an election as being anything other than vote-buying gimmicks? Or believe that these things could possibly be affordable on an ongoing basis?
Unless these policies are introduced with a clear policy rationale and with convincing explanations as to how they will be affordable and won’t lead to reductions in the quality of services provided, I think they tend to lose more voters than they win over, because they look impulsive, ill-considered and desperate.
https://x.com/kossamaras/status/1837250811832979726, details
meher baba ?
Unless these policies are introduced with a clear policy rationale and with convincing explanations as to how they will be affordable???.
They are affordable because they are obtained from Queensland assets, i.e the minerals owned by the Queensland people, and not ripped off by miners digging them out of the earth !.
If the voters are alert enough to realize that, things might reverse !.
meher baba @ #7 Saturday, September 21st, 2024 – 9:31 am
The only reason Newman won was Anna Bligh promised not to sell state assets and then went ahead and did just that.
Newman’s character and ideology were plain to all to see. He fooled enough people by saying he wouldn’t sack public servants etc. When he broke that promise, just like Anna Bligh he was destined for eventual defeat.
All those bagging Albo for not breaking election promises that promised only moderate reform in favour of doing more radical stuff should take note. For the same reason he would have suffered MORE of a backlash if he hadn’t gone ahead with the Voice referendum.
1934Pc @ #13 Saturday, September 21st, 2024 – 11:46 am
The public transport fares policy is brilliant as it also feeds forward into reduced need for road investment, lower vehicle emissions, reduced road accidents etc. Other states have taken notice.
Electricity subsidies are using the current high prices for coal etc to smooth the transition to renewables which again just sensible policy.
“That the central campaign policy of the ALP across the nation for the last 40 years of ‘we’ll give you free stuff’ is not being welcomed.”
@Astro_turf
Yeah piss off Astri_turf. Liberals threw away 40 billion on Job keeper to businesses who were not entitled to that money and also didn’t have to pay that money back. So much for your ‘Labor gives out free stuff’ bullshit.
On to the Queensland election. Courier Mail coverage has been disgraceful. The Miles government proposed to renovate qsac stadium, and it gets slammed as doing it for the cheap. I guarantee if they found a more expensive option they would be accused of wasting tax payers money and debt.
David Crisafulli has been giving mixed messages with his responses. Just hiding behind he will establish a infrastructure body and suggesting no new stadiums. But then putting the boot in Labor’s QSAC option. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ditches it and goes with former Liberal Lord Mayor Graham Quirk’s Victoria Park option. Interestingly Campbell Newman has been scathing of this option. Newman would know about extravagance and waste. As Premier he went ahead with the diabolical ‘Tower of Power’ debacle which was slammed in a review as a enormous waste of tax payers money.