The Australian yesterday published the quarterly Newspoll aggregates, which combine three months of polling to produce breakdowns by state and various demographic indicators with credible sample sizes. The state breakdowns record the Coalition leading 51-49 in New South Wales (unchanged on the previous quarter, for a swing to the Coalition of around 2.5% from the 2022 election); Labor leading 52-48 in Victoria (in from 54-46, a Coalition swing of around 3%); the Coalition leading 54-46 in Queensland (steady on both the last quarter and the last election); Labor leading 52-48 in Western Australia (steady, a Coalition swing of around 3%); and Labor leading 54-46 in South Australia (out from 53-47, no swing from 2022). The national two-party preferred through this period was 50-50, after Labor led 51-49 last quarter. The results combine four Newspoll surveys from July 15 to September 20 with an overall sample of 5035, ranging from 374 in South Australia to 1592 in New South Wales.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition leading 51-49 on respondent-allocated preferences, after they trailed 50.5-49.5 last week, but these seem unduly favourable to them: the primary votes are Labor 30% (down two), Coalition 38% (up half), Greens 13.5% (up one) and One Nation 4.5% (down half), and the pollster’s two-party measures based on 2022 election preferences have Labor leading 51.5-48.5, in from 52-48. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1668.
Ante Meridiansays:
Wednesday, October 2, 2024 at 2:52 pm
D&M,
If the Coalition can get within 5 seats of a majority (71) that would mean a gain of 13 seats relative to the last election (ignoring by-elections). If all those gains were at Labor’s expense, that would push labor down to 64.
Under that scenario, the crossbench would almost certainly support the Coalition on the basis that they clearly have the most seats. Even if a couple of the gains were at the expense of the Teals, the same would apply.
So I don’t think that Financial Review article is particularly insightful.
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Have you ever followed NZ politics?.
Sceptic @ #337 Wednesday, October 2nd, 2024 – 11:04 am
Or we could ask the 1400 innocent Israelis that died first? 😐
“ And that is why Albo should go nowhere near negative gearing.”
steve davis, and that is exactly why Albanese should scrap the multi billion dollar negative gearing rort, and why the Labor states should keep increasing taxes on property investors and keep legislating to protect renters’ rights until the investors are driven out of the market, so that every house they sell can become a citizen’s home.
Let them all go and invest in Queensland. They are not welcome in SA.
There once was a moratorium. Is it on again or off again?
Arky @ #398 Wednesday, October 2nd, 2024 – 4:39 pm
Nobody is interested in knowing how much you get off on your idiocies being called out.
I guess when Hezbollah assassinated the elected President of Lebanon that was just spiritual leadership. When they shut down Lebanese parliament when it wouldn’t do their bidding…. When Nasrallah helped the Assads massacre Sunnis in Syria… when they massacred political opponents in Beirut itself… when they launched terrorist attacks against Jewish civilians not just in Israel but elsewhere in the world such as Argentina…
I’m not surprised you respect that, given your earlier endorsement of violence against those you politically disagree with, but let’s make no bones about the sort of person and group you are endorsing here.
Arky, you can’t reason with the unreasonable.
Hugoaugogosays:
Wednesday, October 2, 2024 at 4:02 pm
There are currently 16 MPs on the crossbench, one of whom, Kylie Tink, is having her seat abolished.
Here’s my take on where each would stand in the scenario of a hung parliament, assuming that the two majors ended up with seat counts in the high 60s, and thus both had a chance to form a minority government.
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Agree with most of your assessment on the crossbench but Victoria isn’t as left wing as some people think because Victorians have always liked governments that build stuff and Andrews did a bit of building and the other thing about Andrews was he was to the point and Victorians have always liked their premiers to get to the point.
Steelydan,
The New Zealand electoral system virtually guarantees all MPs are from parties that vote as blocs. It’s nothing like having the balance of power in the hands of independents who have to be herded like cats.
If you’re an independent in a hung parliament, your instinct is to support the party (or coalition) with the most seats, so if you miss a crucial vote, the government won’t fall. There have been recent exceptions in Australia, federal and state, but almost always when the major parties are almost level, so every vote is always crucial anyway.
There is no rule that the Indies must support the party with the most seats.
They are independent. They can vote as it suits.
Mavis at 12.25pm
There was a slight dust up starting just after 6pm monday night. Eddy jumped in and got it all settled down later in the evening.
I think we have arrogant sandman back on the site too, albeit under a new name.
Moratorium on what Griff.
Negative gearing, our useless PM, or the housing rental crisis?
Page at 2.42pm.
This is why we can’t trust teals.
They are a loose fitting collaboration of who knows what.
The greens are a properly structured political party.
The teals served a purpose.
Again I don’t see how “comprehensive tax reform” would be political palatable in this parliament, let alone publically popular.
A reminder again that Ken Henry recommended:
– a lower company tax rate
– a flatter income tax structure
– a nationalised resources tax
– land tax for all
– road user charging (which would capture EVs)
– broader and higher GST
All sounds great and economically efficient … But which combination of Greens, Teals, and the S&Ts would agree with all this?
There won’t be many Teals or Indies left, but you can take it to the bank that so long as Dutts wins anything short of 76, they’ll all each find some self serving reason to back Labor.
@Vlad
The moratorium is on discussing the Middle East
A reminder again that Ken Henry recommended:
– a lower company tax rate
– a flatter income tax structure
– a nationalised resources tax
– land tax for all
– road user charging (which would capture EVs)
– broader and higher GST
F.M.D.
He might as well have said
All your money belongs to us.
It’s the same thing.
She’s going Liberal because she is going to lose to a Liberal.
“A grassroots Queensland Jewish group has accused the Greens of stoking anti-Semitism and hatred in the wake of the October 7 attacks in Israel, launching a billboard and letterbox campaign against the minor party in key seats ahead of the state election.”
“A first wave of advertisements compares the Greens protesting dams in the 1980s to today’s pro-Palestine movement, accusing the party of abandoning its core environmental message to support terror, indoctrinate children to hate, and undermine Australian values.
This week, the QJC will launch another series of billboards in partnership with the Australian Hindu Association and local Iranian community to take a stand for marginalised groups.
“They no longer stand for all minorities,” reads one of the QJC flyers. “They support our persecutors and terrorisers here and overseas. We’re putting them last.”
The collective is attempting to unseat Queensland’s first elected Greens MP, Michael Berkman, from the inner-west electorate of Maiwar, which he won in 2017, and is also targeting Moggill, held by the LNP’s Christian Rowan on a margin of 3.59 per cent, to blunt the Greens after it collected the overlapping federal seat of Ryan in the 2022 Brisbane “Greenslide”.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/jewish-group-launches-campaign-against-greens-ahead-of-queensland-election/news-story/c740c931abad63777f0bf88edaab0817
Dutton is a useless LOTO. Bandy is his useful idiot.
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, October 2, 2024 at 6:10 pm
Dutton is that useless that he’s 50-50 in the polls. Most Opposition Leaders would give their Left Ovary to be that useless.