Federal polls: Newspoll quarterly and Roy Morgan weekly (open thread)

Quarterly Newspoll aggregates record no radical changes over the past three months at state level, while Roy Morgan’s two-party results offer something for everyone.

The Australian yesterday published the quarterly Newspoll aggregates, which combine three months of polling to produce breakdowns by state and various demographic indicators with credible sample sizes. The state breakdowns record the Coalition leading 51-49 in New South Wales (unchanged on the previous quarter, for a swing to the Coalition of around 2.5% from the 2022 election); Labor leading 52-48 in Victoria (in from 54-46, a Coalition swing of around 3%); the Coalition leading 54-46 in Queensland (steady on both the last quarter and the last election); Labor leading 52-48 in Western Australia (steady, a Coalition swing of around 3%); and Labor leading 54-46 in South Australia (out from 53-47, no swing from 2022). The national two-party preferred through this period was 50-50, after Labor led 51-49 last quarter. The results combine four Newspoll surveys from July 15 to September 20 with an overall sample of 5035, ranging from 374 in South Australia to 1592 in New South Wales.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition leading 51-49 on respondent-allocated preferences, after they trailed 50.5-49.5 last week, but these seem unduly favourable to them: the primary votes are Labor 30% (down two), Coalition 38% (up half), Greens 13.5% (up one) and One Nation 4.5% (down half), and the pollster’s two-party measures based on 2022 election preferences have Labor leading 51.5-48.5, in from 52-48. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1668.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,008 comments on “Federal polls: Newspoll quarterly and Roy Morgan weekly (open thread)”

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  1. The Liberal National Party will not preference the Greens over Labor at the Queensland election after frontrunner David Crisafulli warned that any boost to the number of “anarchist” crossbenchers would sow chaos in the state parliament.
    The LNP was flushed out on the opening day of the campaign when Mr Crisafulli initially hedged on saying whether he supported preferencing against Labor in a rerun of the tactic used in 2020 to engineer the defeat of former deputy premier Jackie Trad at the hands of the Greens.
    The LNP leader insisted the problem lay with the system of compulsory preferential voting introduced by the ALP under former premier Annastacia Palaszczuk, not its preference strategy. Until 2016, Labor in Queensland had embraced optional preferential voting to allow electors to “just vote 1” on the ballot paper.
    At the same time, senior state ALP figures told The Australian the party would have to rely on Greens preferences to hold several seats in its stronghold of Brisbane to deliver Steven Miles’s government another term. “We are in trouble with the swing across the state, and some are lost,’’ one Labor source said. “But there are seats, particularly in Brisbane, where Greens preferences will probably prove critical in Labor holding them. In a seat like South Brisbane, if the LNP puts us ahead of the Greens, we may actually win it back.”
    Mr Crisafulli twice refused to be drawn on whether the LNP should preference Labor first, even though he branded the Greens a “party of of complete anarchists” and said the next parliament would be “chaotic” if they increased their representation for the third state election in a row.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/2024-queensland-election-opposition-puts-labor-above-anarchist-greens/news-story/c9e4c7f0605a174c0d96898e5fac4f9f?amp

  2. And what will Peter Dutton do in the federal election? A much more interesting question to find an answer to. Will Dutton think that it’s better to favour The Greens, who have been such willing accomplices to foil Labor, or will he think that he can drive to victory through the Brisbane seats that The Greens won at the last election, combined with his regional seat play? I guess it all revolves around whether he thinks Labor voters would rather preference the LNP, the Liberals or the Nats over The Greens after seeing how uncooperative The Greens have been. I mean, what’s the point of preferencing The Greens when you know they’re just going to sabotage your party? Ultimately, of course, a Teal candidate would be preferable to either the Coalition candidate or The Greens candidate in Greens seats, after they have voted Labor 1.

  3. ‘Socrates says:
    Monday, September 30, 2024 at 10:24 pm

    I think the greatest damage done by the Voice defeat was to Albo himself. I do not mean politically but personally. He has not seemed the same since, almost depressed.
    …’
    ==================
    The Voice defeat destroyed a generation of Indigenous national leaders. They were crushed. They have disappeared.

    I note that the usuals are around blaming anyone but Dutton for the defeat.

    Dutton gave the Voice the kiss of death. Bandt did not help, but, as usual the Greens were bit players in Dutton’s theatre of hate.

    Why did Dutton was always going to give the Voice the kiss of death?

    Gut Queensland copper.

  4. I note that Eddy and MJ were busy telling each other that Labor does not care for Australia’s poorest people.

    I defy them to identify the particular, general and total spending that Labor has committed to Indigenous Australians.

    Australia’s poorest people.

    I bet they can’t. They have just one interest: viciously slagging Labor.

  5. As usual, I will ignore the Morgan poll results. (Apologies to Nadia and others who seem to find them interesting, but I have never been able to take them the least bit seriously.)

    However, the Newspoll quaterly figures are instructive as always. The meh government continues to get meh polling results. The electorate might be waiting for the Albo Government with baseball bats, but they’re only the inflatable sort you sometimes find in showbags.

    It’s difficult to interpret these results as heading anywhere other than a hung parliament. But the likely nature of the crossbench wouldn’t give Dutton any chance of forming a government.

    Unless things get worse for the government. And they probably will, but probably not enough. The pendulum is clearly shifting to the right, but at far too slow a rate to put Dutton in the position of winning back enough of the seats the Libs lost in 2022.

    So the election results are like to be meh, meaning that the meh government will continue in office. The one ray of brightness might be that minority government might put a bit of power into the hands of those independents who have a few ideas in their heads: particularly Spender, but also to some extent Steggall and even Sharkie. (And I’ve also heard good things about Scamps, but I don’t know much about her.) Perhaps they can help the Albo Government find some policies with broad appeal: possibly even in relation to reconciliation. And taxation: if there’s anyone in politics I’d trust to come up with some sort of balanced and sensible proposal on the taxation of income from housing and other assets, it’d be Spender.

  6. c@t at 6.45am
    ——————————————————————————-
    I reckon the Greens have made themselves into the pariahs of Australian politics, and that no other party or sensible independent is going to want to have anything whatsoever to do with them going forward. They won’t want their preferences going to the Greens and they won’t want the Greens’ support in Parliament.

    Assuming a minority government after the election, I would expect Albo to go to great lengths to avoid doing any sort of a deal with the Greens, even courting Katter’s vote ahead of theirs (albeit that he’s unlikely to get it).

    And fair enough too. Being a very committed environmentalist, I used to have some sympathy for the party and even voted for it a couple of times at the state level. But the party has been taken over by a bunch of former student radicals for whom environmental issues are just a level for progressing their main interest in fighting the class war. There are still some decent Greens down here in Tassie (including Rosalie Woodruff and Vica Bayley in the State Parliament) and I have close friends who still support them. And I believe that some of the past and present posters on PB who support them are good people.

    But they’ve turned toxic.

    To paraphrase the words of Dylan’s “As I Went Out One Morning” (with Bob Brown substituted for Tom Paine and equating the girl to the Greens party)

    “Just then Bob Brown, himself
    Came running from across the field
    Shouting at this lovely girl
    And commanding her to yield
    And as she was letting go her grip
    Up Bob Brown did run
    “I’m sorry, sir”, he said to me
    “I’m sorry for what she’s done”

  7. I used to give the Greens my preference, and even voted for them in the Senate. But not anymore. Like meher baba I view the party now as replete with low rent student hacks who do SFA for the environment. They are the party of fringe issues.

  8. 57-43 now in the red zone.Hung parliament? hmmm the trend is not your friend labor feds as you know have been for over a year on a set path of vote going lower and lower.

    Not seeing changes to stop it instead tone deaf bragging about China ties,Aussies hate China,sucking up to war starters in the Middle East and Israel hating to get votes of people who will vote for the Muslim party anyway as they are zealots also a free trade agreement with a country that it’s illegal to be homosexual in bragged about it did labor.Thats just foreign policy.
    Cannot get rid of people who labor should not of brought into Australia hence cost of living crisis continues and rents through roof trashing poor who this fed Labor government has given crumbs too and have driven many into rental poverty and homelessness.

    Meanwhile Albo and Rudd now blow out jet setting allowance and dud ministers abound shuffled into areas where they fail again.
    For all the bagging of Dutton he is neck and neck with Albo who has no spine and Aussies drift .

    Thinking the drift down will stop when nothing is changing is whacky.

    Meanwhile spending through roof and tax through the roof.

    So we await the next labor failure it’s coming

  9. Boerwar, unemployed First Nations people would also benefit if the Albanese government redirected the money it saved in other areas of spending towards raising the unemployment benefit for Australia’s poorest people during this time of economic hardship, rather than using it for boasting about their economic management.

    As you have referred to what I posted at the end of the previous, I will repost what I actually said.

    “ Nicholas, from memory, at the end of Frasier’s reign inflation was around 10% and unemployment was also high. His attitude was that “Life wasn’t meant to be easy” and that “dole bludgers” shouldn’t be going to the beach to surf at the tax payers’ expense. And he refused to put up the dole.

    One of Bob Hawke’s election promises was to raise unemployment benefits, and upon being elected he did so immediately.

    So why won’t Chalmers use his surplus to raise the unemployment benefit for the poorest citizens? I really don’t understand, and I am genuinely asking if anyone here can tell me.”

  10. Centre says (previous thread):

    “Albo could have done a Nathan Cleary (turning certain defeat into victory in last year’s GF) by changing the question to solely recognise Indigenous Australians in the constitution thereby wedging Dutton.”

    I’m not sure how the question could have been changed at the last minute, but I agree that the question was the wrong one. Recognising the original inhabitants in the Constitution would have been a no-brainer for a majority of Australians. The Voice was a bridge too far – mainly because at no point did the government make any effort to explain what it would look like. That’s why the Dutton’s “If you don’t know, vote NO” struck home.

    The Greens also didn’t help by starting out stupidly with Thorpe deciding policy, but they were/are irrelevant in the end.

    And it will now never succeed. The only way forward would be a question about constitutional recognition and the ability of government to make relevant laws to govern.

    (And for the record, I despaired of it long before the actual vote, but I still voted Yes.)

  11. C@tmomma @ 6.45am
    My political education from my late Grandfather was very precise.
    Liberal or Country Party are always placed last on any ballot paper.
    No matter how odious the alternative may be No Notion, Family First et el – you always put the CLP last as they are the only other party which can form government at State or Federal level.
    I’ll be looking carefully at the candidates for Robertson, and after giving Dr Reid my 1st preference I’ll decide in which order my preferences will flow.
    And if she stands again, as rumoured, The Cougar shall be last.

  12. Eddysays:
    Tuesday, October 1, 2024 at 7:33 am
    So why won’t Chalmers use his surplus to raise the unemployment benefit for the poorest citizens? I really don’t understand, and I am genuinely asking if anyone here can tell me.”
    _______________
    The budget is a practical demonstration of a governments values and choices. The Labor Political Party has chosen banal talking points and the opportunity to crow about a surplus nobody cares about over supporting Australia’s needy and preventing them from being left yet further behind.

  13. Luigi Smithsays:
    Tuesday, October 1, 2024 at 7:51 am
    There are parties that already campaign on “Put Greens last”. Labor needs to pick up on this too.
    ________
    Big ups for the socialist alliance then? You might as well campaign on “put people last”

  14. Funny cat, I would consider that I have thought through my comments and ideas prior to posting, whereas your inane alliteration to me is more-so ‘nattering’. Takes all sorts though.

  15. Banquo911,
    Instead of firing off yet another slag and bag of Labor, how about you stop and think about what Labor are able to do BECAUSE they are getting the National Debt down and producing Surpluses? It’s called, saving Hundreds of Millions of Dollars on Interest payable on the Debt. And guess what they’re doing with it? Using that money to subsidise people like me to pay the rent. Also putting it to good use finally addressing the Social Housing deficit. But it’s never good enough or soon enough for armchair warriors like you.

    Oh well, I guess when a Dutton government begins turning the screws on the poorest citizens again and we get Robodebt 2.0, people like you can spend the next 3 years complaining about how Labor should have done more when they were in government. That’s how it’s going to work for people like you, isn’t it?

  16. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    The Reserve Bank’s aggressive interest rate settings are finally bringing the property market to heel, with new figures revealing a slowdown across the nation’s capital cities as more homes go up for sale and landlords struggle to ramp up rents. Shane Wright says an analysis by the Commonwealth Bank suggests Australians are using their stage 3 tax cuts to pay down their mortgages rather than go on a spending spree, CoreLogic reported home values lifted by a “modest” 0.4 per cent in September.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/property-market-finally-slowing-down-as-australians-save-their-tax-cuts-20240930-p5kela.html
    Geoff Chambers reckons Jim Chalmers has borrowed Wayne Swan’s box of magic fiscal tricks to deliver a smoke and mirrors surplus that firms up expectations of a March election.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/jims-smoke-and-mirrors-budget-points-to-march-election/news-story/b1ecb330bc96bbeb28182fcd8561c962
    John Kehoe and Michael Read say the treasurer’s second budget in the black has been underwritten by the highest share of wages taxation since before the GST was introduced in 2000.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/income-tax-hits-25-year-high-in-chalmers-surplus-20240930-p5keiw
    According to Shane Wright, the budget is starting to show the wear and tear of a slowing economy. He says a sharp fall in tax revenue from workers and businesses over the past four months has exposed an emerging economic fault line ahead of the coming federal election, despite the government producing one of the largest budget surpluses on record.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/budget-starts-to-show-the-wear-and-tear-of-a-slowing-economy-20240930-p5kehs.html
    Opposition leader Peter Dutton is trying to kill off Labor’s multinational tax avoidance reforms, already watered down as they are, writes Mark Zirnsak who exposes the plan.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/revealed-peter-duttons-campaign-to-kill-labors-multinational-tax-reforms/
    Peter Hartcher tells us why Iran’s impotence has been exposed, and Netanyahu’s the big winner.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/why-iran-s-impotence-has-been-exposed-and-netanyahu-s-the-big-winner-20240930-p5kejg.html
    Amelia Maguire reports that Qatar Airways is set to take a 25% stake in Virgin Australia as it proposes Doha flights. She says he arrangement would require approval from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/qatar-airways-to-take-stake-in-virgin-as-it-proposes-doha-flights-20240930-p5kerh.html
    The AFR’s Chanticleer explains how the Virgin and Qatar deal could wedge Qantas and Labor.
    https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/how-the-virgin-and-qatar-deal-could-wedge-qantas-and-labor-20240930-p5kerl
    Shane Wright and Millie Muroi write that more than 150 undeveloped supermarket sites held by Coles and Woolworths will be targeted for release to possible competitors as federal and state governments ramp up efforts to put downward pressure on food and grocery prices. They say that today, Albanese will reveal efforts to reform planning and zoning regulations to open up sites for new stores.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coles-and-woolies-face-fresh-battle-to-keep-competitors-at-bay-20240930-p5keqm.html
    Coles and Woolworths have leapfrogged their peers in profitability, says Paul Barrett who provides us with the charts to prove it.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/01/coles-and-woolworths-have-leapfrogged-their-peers-in-profitability-these-charts-prove-it
    An allegedly corrupt Victorian union boss has been accused of forging close ties to backroom Labor operatives and disgraced union boss John Setka while running a secret slush fund to influence the selection of state and federal ALP candidates and policies. Nick Mc Kenzie writes that the damning claims about union secretary Diana Asmar and the “Asmar gang” have been made by the assistant secretary of the Victorian Health Workers Union, David Eden, in a sworn affidavit lodged in the Federal Court that provides a rare glimpse into the underbelly of the Labor movement.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/union-official-claims-asmar-gang-created-slush-fund-to-influence-labor-appointments-20240925-p5kdbd.html
    The ‘key witness’ in the royal commission into defence and veteran suicide tells how the process itself retraumatised them. Paul Daley outlines the story.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/01/i-served-my-country-but-i-never-felt-so-discarded-in-my-life-how-the-adf-pushed-its-own-witness-to-the-brink-of-suicide-ntwnfb
    “Will abortion rights be wound back in Queensland if the LNP wins the election?”, wonders Andrew Messenger.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/sep/30/queensland-state-election-abortion-liberal-national-party-policy-leaders-david-crisafulli
    The newly appointed special envoy to combat Islamophobia, Aftab Malik, has vowed to advocate against hate directed at Muslim community and anti-Semitism, amid concerns the conflict in the Middle East is undermining social cohesion in Australia. Mr Malik, an internationally recognised Muslim scholar and public servant, said Islamophobia and anti-Semitism could often be found “lurking” together, stressing that “no form of hatred is more important than another”.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/aftab-malik-appointed-as-islamophobia-special-envoy/news-story/141ac3f0ae0fb212950a9232bd7da9a1?amp
    The Albanese government has announced British Australian public servant Aftab Malik as the special envoy to combat Islamophobia in Australia after months of delays. But it has also sparked criticism, with some people within the Muslim community calling into question the thinking behind the appointment.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/sep/30/aftab-malik-labor-islamophobia-envoy-ntwnfb
    It came out in federal court yesterday that the influential Liberal figure Michael Kroger claimed Moira Deeming had said “more crazy stuff over the years” as he urged the Victorian opposition leader, John Pesutto, to build a stronger case for her ousting from the party room.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/sep/30/moira-deeming-defamation-trial-john-pesutto-michael-kroger-ntwnfb
    Australia’s coal and natural gas shippers are bracing for a significant hit to their revenue in the next two years as sliding demand and prices for fossil fuel exports threaten to wipe out nearly $30 billion of combined earnings. Nick Toscano tells us that coal and liquefied natural gas, two of the nation’s biggest commodities, were the key drivers of record export revenue from the mining and energy sectors in 2022 and 2023 as the end of COVID-19 shutdowns reignited energy demand and the war in Ukraine choked global supplies.
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/australia-s-fossil-fuel-giants-are-facing-a-30-billion-hit-20240930-p5kek7.html
    After an extraordinary surge in offshore student visa applications from the Philippines in 2022-23, these have now completely collapsed in 2024. Abul Rizvi says this is having a major impact on Vocational Education and Training providers, many of whom now face financial ruin, but will also have an impact on long-term visa management.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/implications-of-student-visa-boom-from-philippines,19022
    Bullying has been growing like a cancer in schools for years, says the SMH editorial. It states that, “Like workplaces, schools need to take more responsibility for student safety. But parents cannot simply leave it up to the schools to do the hard lifting. Tellingly, the Bullying, No Way! campaign found students told parents about bullying rather than anyone else. Parents should never forget they are the true bulwark against schoolyard bullies.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/schools-must-step-up-but-parents-are-the-best-defence-against-bullies-20240930-p5kej5.html
    Simon Kuestenmacher describes the big challenges facing young men in Australia.
    https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/opinion/2024/09/27/stats-guy-young-men
    An interim pay agreement between the Minns government and the NSW firefighters’ union is only a truce. But for a government with plenty of industrial headaches, it’s good news, says Maichael McGowan.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/as-unions-rankle-government-a-peace-deal-is-brokered-with-firefighters-sort-of-20240929-p5kedg.html
    Charlotte Mortlock floats a workplace change that could fix our declining birth rate.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-workplace-change-that-could-fix-our-declining-birth-rate-20240918-p5kbkv.html
    Aluminium giant Alcoa has locked in a new electricity deal to power its Portland smelter in Victoria’s south-west, strengthening the outlook for the plant’s future and the job security of the 760 people it employs. Nick Toscano reports that the deal between United States-based Alcoa and Australian power utility AGL, finalised on Monday, increases electricity supply for the energy-intensive smelter for another nine years following the expiry of its existing contracts in 2026.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/new-deal-to-power-up-alcoa-s-portland-smelter-until-2035-20240930-p5keol.html
    Please stop Liz Truss making public appearances. Not for our benefit, for hers, urges John Crace, dripping with sarcasm.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/sep/30/please-stop-liz-truss-making-public-appearances-not-for-our-benefit-for-hers
    China has just announced a fresh set of stimulus measures to try and fix its economy. Once again, they are too half-hearted, opines Ambrose Evans-Pritchard who says investors need to watch China very closely over the next six months.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/shock-and-awe-xi-jinping-needs-to-do-more-to-pull-china-out-of-its-spiral-20240925-p5kd91.html
    Javier Blas takes us to the cheating game inside the world’s oil cartel.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/the-cheating-game-inside-the-world-s-oil-cartel-20240926-p5kdm5.html
    Stephen Bartholomeusz writes about the share market raid that has sent shockwaves through Europe.
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/italian-job-the-sharemarket-raid-that-has-rattled-europe-20240930-p5kegy.html
    At least two Israeli strikes hit Beirut’s southern suburbs late yesterday a security source said, with Reuters reporters seeing two flashes of light and hearing loud blasts coming from the neighbourhood. The Israeli military had warned an hour earlier that it would strike specific buildings in the typically densely populated southern suburbs, saying armed group Hezbollah was using them as facilities and telling residents to leave.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/israel-warns-beirut-suburbs-to-evacuate-before-strikes-20241001-p5kest
    A Georgia judge on Monday struck down the state’s six-week abortion ban, ruling that the ban is unconstitutional and blocking it from being enforced. In a 26-page opinion, the Fulton county superior judge Robert McBurney ruled that the state’s abortion laws must revert to what they were before the six-week ban – known as the Life Act – was passed in 2019. The ban was blocked as long as Roe v Wade was the law of the land, but went into effect after the US supreme court overturned Roe in 2022. Abortions are now legal in Georgia up until about 22 weeks of pregnancy.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/sep/30/georgia-abortion-ban-overturned
    The US former president’s unusual willingness to overlook Senator J.D.Vance’s missteps is a sign they share much more than the November 5 election ticket, writes Michael C Bender.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/unique-partnership-donald-trump-and-his-real-life-apprentice-20240930-p5keg5.html
    Normally, ‘veep’ debates don’t really matter. This time it does, explains Nick Bryant. Frequently in this era of extreme polarisation, he says, we talk of split-screen America. But in this week’s vice-presidential debate, two men who epitomise two different Americas will appear together in the same shot.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/normally-veep-debates-don-t-really-matter-this-time-it-does-20240926-p5kdt0.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope

    David Rowe

    Matt Golding


    Cathy Wilcox

    Glen Le Lievre

    Mark David

    Dionne Gain

    Mark Knight

    Spooner
    https://content.api.news/v3/images/bin/5b1f12941e23160f753fe44c66d579de?width=1024#image

    From the US




















  17. Banquo911 @ #17 Tuesday, October 1st, 2024 – 7:58 am

    Funny cat, I would consider that I have thought through my comments and ideas prior to posting, whereas your inane alliteration to me is more-so ‘nattering’. Takes all sorts though.

    So, you’re so young that you didn’t even recognise one of Paul Keating’s most famous put-downs? It wasn’t my alliteration, it was his. But yeah, a lot of thought needs to be put into your nasty Anti Labor one-liners so you may have missed it. I guess. 😐

  18. C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, October 1, 2024 at 8:02 am
    Banquo911,
    Instead of firing off yet another slag and bag of Labor, how about you stop and think about what Labor are able to do BECAUSE they are getting the National Debt down and producing Surpluses? It’s called, saving Hundreds of Millions of Dollars on Interest payable on the Debt. And guess what they’re doing with it? Using that money to subsidise people like me to pay the rent. Also putting it to good use finally addressing the Social Housing deficit. But it’s never good enough or soon enough for armchair warriors like you.
    ____________________________
    But that is precisely and specifically what they are not doing when they post a budget surplus. The budget surplus is money not spent, including on debt repayments. You can see this by way of our national debt being at the highest level ever.
    Its money that has not been spent on repaying debt, that has not been spent subsidising rent, and has not been spent addressing the social housing deficit. It is money that has been left on the table and serves utterly no purpose.

  19. Seems I was right about rents as well when I said that I detected that rent increases were losing steam as I was looking for somewhere to live myself recently. Before the usual suspects from The Greens tried to howl me down and accuse me of making it all up. Um, no I wasn’t:

    CoreLogic’s measure of rents increased by 0.1 per cent through the September quarter, the smallest change in a three-month period in four years.

    Rents fell by 0.5 per cent in Sydney, by 0.2 per cent in Brisbane and by 0.8 per cent in Canberra over the past three months, while they rose by 0.3 per cent in Melbourne and Perth.

    Lawless said a slowdown in net overseas migration and the large jump in rents over the past two years were now hitting the rental market.

    “Our affordability metrics indicated that the median income household would require around a third of their income to service the median rent value across Australia in June,” he said.

    “It wouldn’t be surprising if the average household size has continued to increase as group households and multi-generational households become more common in the face of high rental costs.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/property-market-finally-slowing-down-as-australians-save-their-tax-cuts-20240930-p5kela.html

    You’re welcome.

  20. Spender wants a full review of our taxation system.

    I agree with her.

    The problem lies with the major party donors who are terrified of losing their tax advantages, thereby instructing their captured politicians to resist change.

  21. The problem with loyally supporting the major parties is that you’re supporting major policy that serves the interests of political donors at the expense of the most vulnerable in our society.

  22. banquo911 @ #21 Tuesday, October 1st, 2024 – 8:09 am

    C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, October 1, 2024 at 8:02 am
    Banquo911,
    Instead of firing off yet another slag and bag of Labor, how about you stop and think about what Labor are able to do BECAUSE they are getting the National Debt down and producing Surpluses? It’s called, saving Hundreds of Millions of Dollars on Interest payable on the Debt. And guess what they’re doing with it? Using that money to subsidise people like me to pay the rent. Also putting it to good use finally addressing the Social Housing deficit. But it’s never good enough or soon enough for armchair warriors like you.
    ____________________________
    But that is precisely and specifically what they are not doing when they post a budget surplus. The budget surplus is money not spent, including on debt repayments. You can see this by way of our national debt being at the highest level ever.
    Its money that has not been spent on repaying debt, that has not been spent subsidising rent, and has not been spent addressing the social housing deficit. It is money that has been left on the table and serves utterly no purpose.

    Other than the fallacies in your answer (unless you were born in the last couple of years and didn’t know that our National Debt is NOT ‘at the highest level ever’). Hint: that’s what the Coalition gifted Labor when they came to power in 2022, plus those other times, like when WW2 needed to be subsidised and the rebuilding of the nation after that.

    Nevertheless, the fact is that governments don’t run a Budget on a week by week basis seeing how much money they have to spend and spending it so as to zero the amount, which is what you are implying they do. This is also because governments don’t know exactly how much revenue they will take in, nor how much expenditure they will need to make over and above that which they outline in the Budget, say for natural disaster relief or a pandemic response. So they need to keep some money available to them in their Surplus, otherwise they need to go into debt to fund these things and that drives up interest payments they need to make. Which is money they no longer have available to them to fund their policies in the next Budget.

    There’s also a thing called the Forward Estimates. So, for example, if the desired increase to JobSeeker is made, it has to be factored in to the Forward Estimates, and this is the main reason that governments don’t put large increases on the table, as it blows the Budget out. And it may be that the poorest people then have more money in their pockets, but if that comes at the expense of funds to provide more Social Housing for them to live in, then it’s like the government has shot itself in the foot. And these poor people have to use that money in the private rental market. A Budget is all about careful choices. And prudent spending. Even if you may wish for something ideal, the government has to keep it real.

  23. pied pipersays:
    Tuesday, October 1, 2024 at 8:26 am
    Rent increase since labor formed gov in May 2022 please
    ________
    Probably bad, but ABS provides may 2020-may 2022 (morisson) alone rents increased almost 30%. Glass houses hey.

  24. I’m sure the naysayers would’ve had an equally critical take on Chalmers’s budget had it been in deficit. You just can’t win, but a surplus will positively resonate with most voters with an election on the way.

  25. Mavis @ #32 Tuesday, October 1st, 2024 – 8:37 am

    I’m sure the naysayers would’ve had an equally critical take on Chalmers’s budget had it been in deficit. You just can’t win, but a surplus will positively resonate with most voters with an election on the way.

    Exactly. Those who aren’t intimately invested in damning Labor whatever they do may see things differently? 🙂

  26. Oh dear I have managed to unite a labor and a green against me hope yet they may do a deal to form government next year.

    That’s if and it’s a big if labor does not get rolled outright as trend is leading them to.

    One bit of spine labor has shown is against Qatar and its airline regarding sexual assault of Aussie women by their staff be interesting if labor caves in yet again and gives them a piece of virgin.Err the airline.

    Women hating Islamic values though seem to largely be ignored by labor.Ironic always on about libs being sexist.

    See below it’s not about me it’s you!

    Off to work.

  27. pied piper @ #36 Tuesday, October 1st, 2024 – 9:02 am

    Oh dear I have managed to unite a labor and a green against me hope yet they may do a deal to form government next year.

    That’s if and it’s a big if labor does not get rolled outright as trend is leading them to.

    You appear to believe that YOU are more important than your disinformation.

  28. shellbell: “Aust U19 cricket team being put to the sword by a 13 year old”
    ——————————————————————————-
    The next Tendulkar in waiting?

  29. But the party has been taken over by a bunch of former student radicals…
    ——-
    Labor has become a party of ossified conservatives when you compare it to the Whitlam govt. Old fogey dismissals of the Greens and others pushing Labor to become a party of the centre-left again as “student radicals” as if Albo wasn’t one in a distant past is just self-denial to trends that are seeing Labor’s vote continue to slide backwards.

  30. Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. Dutton’s latest tactic to block Labor reforms is pure vandalism. Why should we give tax breaks to foreign owned multinationals? Which Liberal donor insisted on this?

    “ Opposition leader Peter Dutton is trying to kill off Labor’s multinational tax avoidance reforms, already watered down as they are, writes Mark Zirnsak who exposes the plan.”
    https://michaelwest.com.au/revealed-peter-duttons-campaign-to-kill-labors-multinational-tax-reforms/

  31. Regarding Chalmers’ surplus, its also important to remember the timing. At the time Chalmers brought down the budgets that led to the surpluses, Australia had an inflation problem. A surplus then was correct policy.

    Now the inflation problem is rapidly disappearing and people are demanding assistance. But you can’t change budget settings in a week. And without a surplus to spend it would have been impossible to help people now without restarting inflation.

  32. @banquo – government revenue doesn’t sit in a box under the bed. If you want to think of it as being in an offset account, that might help you avoid silly statements although of course it’s actually invested in more sophisticated ways than that.

    Government debt with an excellent credit rating is extremely cheap. Where you or I might find it difficult to invest surplus money in a way more cost effective than paying off household debt, this is not true of the Australian government.

    I now expect you to completely ignore your display of ignorance in attacking the surplus and find some new and silly way to slag Labor.

  33. The margin of error on the Morgan poll is about 2.5%, so another status quo result. Polls seem to be bouncing around 50-50.

  34. @mj – “Labor has become a party of ossified conservatives when you compare it to the Whitlam govt”

    Ah yes, and no current American president can live up to Lincoln or Washington yada yada. It’s natural to romanticise the past without considering the circumstances of the time, nor the weaknesses (modern Labor is far better equipped to actually administrate and do the business of government, which isn’t sexy and doesn’t make headlines but which is important. And unlike Whitlam there’s no Khemlani here or secret attempt to get campaign money from Saddam Hussein, which in the modern era would ruin Labor for decades.)

  35. pied piper @ #9 Tuesday, October 1st, 2024 – 7:27 am

    57-43 now in the red zone.Hung parliament? hmmm the trend is not your friend labor feds as you know have been for over a year on a set path of vote going lower and lower.

    Not seeing changes to stop it instead tone deaf bragging about China ties,Aussies hate China,sucking up to war starters in the Middle East and Israel hating to get votes of people who will vote for the Muslim party anyway as they are zealots also a free trade agreement with a country that it’s illegal to be homosexual in bragged about it did labor.Thats just foreign policy.
    Cannot get rid of people who labor should not of brought into Australia hence cost of living crisis continues and rents through roof trashing poor who this fed Labor government has given crumbs too and have driven many into rental poverty and homelessness.

    Meanwhile Albo and Rudd now blow out jet setting allowance and dud ministers abound shuffled into areas where they fail again.
    For all the bagging of Dutton he is neck and neck with Albo who has no spine and Aussies drift .

    Thinking the drift down will stop when nothing is changing is whacky.

    Meanwhile spending through roof and tax through the roof.

    So we await the next labor failure it’s coming

    Is this what happens when you chuck all the talking points in a blender?

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