The Australian yesterday published the quarterly Newspoll aggregates, which combine three months of polling to produce breakdowns by state and various demographic indicators with credible sample sizes. The state breakdowns record the Coalition leading 51-49 in New South Wales (unchanged on the previous quarter, for a swing to the Coalition of around 2.5% from the 2022 election); Labor leading 52-48 in Victoria (in from 54-46, a Coalition swing of around 3%); the Coalition leading 54-46 in Queensland (steady on both the last quarter and the last election); Labor leading 52-48 in Western Australia (steady, a Coalition swing of around 3%); and Labor leading 54-46 in South Australia (out from 53-47, no swing from 2022). The national two-party preferred through this period was 50-50, after Labor led 51-49 last quarter. The results combine four Newspoll surveys from July 15 to September 20 with an overall sample of 5035, ranging from 374 in South Australia to 1592 in New South Wales.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition leading 51-49 on respondent-allocated preferences, after they trailed 50.5-49.5 last week, but these seem unduly favourable to them: the primary votes are Labor 30% (down two), Coalition 38% (up half), Greens 13.5% (up one) and One Nation 4.5% (down half), and the pollster’s two-party measures based on 2022 election preferences have Labor leading 51.5-48.5, in from 52-48. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1668.
Hezbollah defeated ISIS in Syria, not a bad feather in it’s cap, i’d say?
Similar to yourself there was much I agree with, some I don’t.
The general gist of it though is what Labor needs to hear from an authority figure they’d take note of – grow a spine and step up.
“Diogenes says:
Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 4:09 pm
Spiers has now resigned from parliament which is a good decision.
I think he pissed off the wrong people when he didn’t go quietly but his life has been pretty much wrecked.
Pretty sad and a great reason not to go into politics.”
100% agreed. Sad case.
‘But the other mob would be worse.’
The blind Labor faithful, at some level, are now starting to realise that our arrogant, weak, grumpy and gutless Prime Minister, who has squandered his popularity and now leads a government with a pathetic 30% first preference vote, but refuses to compromise with the Greens and independents to improve his inadequate vanilla legislation, the very people whose preferences he depends upon to govern but denigrates and blames for his failed first term, preferring to beg Dutton for approval, has been a huge disappointing failure.
This is obvious because every criticism of Albanese posted here is now met with Dutton would be much worse!
There is truth to that – despite being the worst argument ever in support of the worst Labor PM ever.
Which brings me to Arky:
“And the other mob will be even less brake on Israel.”
And with that this type of argument becomes completely disingenuous. Under Biden there has been no brake on Israel. The supply of massive bombs has continued. Even the intimation of stopping the supply of the weapons killing civilians in the tens of thousands ceased once Netanyahu called Biden’s bluff.
Biden is now stating that no American President has ever been more supportive of Israel than him, while acknowledging that he has been played for a fool. Even Reagan and Thatcher were tougher on Israel. How on earth could Trump be worse?
South Australian police say former Liberal leader David Speirs has been charged with two counts of supplying a controlled substance, after “allegations of illicit substance use” at his home emerged several weeks ago.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-05/david-speirs-confirms-arrest-and-police-raid-on-his-home/104436784
Eddy @ #904 Saturday, October 5th, 2024 – 5:06 pm
Still haven’t provided an answer to the seminal question, if not Labor, then who? I see you just have mined your seam of stream of consciousness abuse instead. Just another lightweight Labor Hater at the end of the day, Eddy.
Badthinker @ #901 Saturday, October 5th, 2024 – 4:38 pm
You appear to have left out the bit about, with Russian and Iranian aid. 😐
@FUBAR, could I outsource to you please explaining to Badthinker why Hezbollah is not the kumbaya non-sectarian organisation he seems to think they are? You might speak his language better than I do.
@Eddy – “How on earth could Trump be worse?”
Hope that you don’t have to find out the hard way.
The fact that Biden is calling for proportionate responses to Iran, while Trump is openly encouraging Netanyahu to bomb Iran’s nuclear sites, should clue you in. Biden is too weak as a lame duck President with a Republican congress to do anything, but Trump will actively encourage and assist Netanyahu in going even further, while Kamala Harris has at least looked more interested in not being a doormat for Netanyahu. Remember that the election is between Harris and Trump, not Biden and Trump. Win the election and you have political capital to make changes.
AOC, not someone I think even you could accuse of being a mouthpiece for anybody, says Harris has been working for a ceasefire and supports her.
I will leave others to make the necessary comments on how your implied preference for Trump over Harris supports the horseshoe thing.
Eddy – it’s hard to believe that even you believe that statement. I appreciate that everyone looks like a fascist when viewed from the far Left, but I’m not sure that you appreciate how screwy that statement looks when viewed from the centre, ie where the vast majority of people sit.
The start with, all US Presidents are strongly pro-Israel, for reasons of strategy, altruism, geo-politics, domestic politics, and inclination, and to expect any President to publicly repudiate Israel is entirely unrealistic – any President to did so would be immediately on the wrong side of US public opinion.
But for all that, it’s simply not the case that Biden has been lockstep behind Netanyahu and Israel over Gaza (and not has Albanese), and there are no shortage of reports of the US putting pressure on Israel to rein it in and start talking peace. The problem Biden has is that Netanyahu has no interest in peace (and nor do Hamas for that matter). And deft diplomacy doesn’t usually involve shouting from the rooftops – such approaches simply don’t work.
And it’s not as simple as just turning off the taps of weapons production. A large reason for the US strongly supporting Israel is to tell the rest of the Middle East (most notably Iran) to butt out and to avoid a wider ME war. Granted, we might be at the point where it’s going to happen anyway, but up until now this approach has been a qualified success.
And the idea that Trump won’t be worse? Netanyahu loves Trump, in part because he’s a kindred spirit, but also because he knows that Trump’s Gaza policy will be “what Bibi wants, Bibi gets”. To claim “bothsidesism” in this situation is both naive and ignorant.
I do get it – the situation in Gaza is horrific, and we’ve surely reached the point where Israel’s stated war aims (the return of hostages and the defanging of Hamas) have surely been achieved as far as military action can, and it’s time to negotiate a peace plan, regardless of how precarious it ends up being.
But the truth is that Middle East geopolitics are both complex and largely impossible to resolve to everyone’s satisfaction, and the fact is that western countries have pretty limited influence. But I’m much more comfortable with a steady hand like Biden in charge than an incompetent buffoon like Trump.
Leader:
Sounds like you may hold ColesWorth stock. The ACCC, given its litigious history, would not bring a proceeding unless it has a strong case. My advice is to divest your holdings asap.
It’s not worth rewarding a mediocre, unresponsive Labor govt with a first preference vote because they will be less worse than Dutton. That is not a convincing argument to vote for Labor. They deserve to be returned in a deep minority position, they have not shown they have the vision or competence to be anywhere close to majority govt. The country can’t afford to waste another 3 years continuing with business as usual.
This is a summary of a very large study into the conduct of large projects around the world according to their technolgy class. It is from the book “How big thingd get done”.
Dutton should read it!
MJ – in the end, it doesn’t much matter whether someone gives Labor their first preference. What matters, in the final analysis, is which of Labor or the Coalition is higher up the preference. A first or fifth preference is actually worth the same. But if it makes you feel better putting Labor further down, knock yourself out.
I don’t agree with a lot of what Eddy says on this blog, but I have to take issue with the criticism of his/her comments about the US-Israel relationship. Hugoaugogo, the idea that Biden alone among all previous US presidents is incapable of withholding weapons in order to end the carnage is just not believable. This also an approach that demonstrably has not been successful (qualified or otherwise) even if engineering a truce and avoiding a wider ME conflict (as is starting to look likely) have actually been the aim.
As for Trump being worse, I totally agree with you and others that his election would be absolutely the worst outcome for the ME and the world. However, from the point of view of a resident of Gaza or Lebanon (next, Iran?), what difference does it make who destroys your country home and family?
You appear to have left out the bit about, with Russian and Iranian aid
Such as?
Hugo, if enough people in a seat vote third party then it won’t end up being an ALP v LNP contest. This is becoming more likely as numbers of third party voters are increasing at each election. If my seat is ALP v LNP which it probably will be I’m content to give my preference to Labor over Liberal because that reflects my intent. However my first preference will be for a candidate that’s not within the current self serving major party duopoly. The major parties need to be shaken out of their complacency imo and the only way to do that is to not vote 1 for them.
BK, got any info on stadia overrun? Asking for a local lib state government.
Rex Douglassays:
Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 4:46 pm
Similar to yourself there was much I agree with, some I don’t.
The general gist of it though is what Labor needs to hear from an authority figure they’d take note of – grow a spine and step up.
_____________________
BILL Kelty has definitely got Victoria sussed.
Debt ridden
Commonwealth Games debacle
New railways with no business case.
Roads paid for but not built.
I think we will have a good chance to flip the seat of Black in the upcoming by-election. The Malinauskas government is polling extremely well. Black also has some overlap with federal Boothby so the by-election will be an interesting test of Louise Miller-Frost’s chances of re-election (which I rate at >75% at the moment).
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-05/david-speirs-confirms-arrest-and-police-raid-on-his-home/104436784
“Liz Truss, the former British prime minister, has claimed the left is winning “the argument” and called for the defunding of public broadcasters to help win it back during a speech at the Australian Conservative Political Action Conference.”
I’m just leaving this here for the next time the right wing complains about censorship and cancel culture.
Eddy says:
Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 5:06 pm
‘But the other mob would be worse.’
The blind Labor faithful, at some level, are now starting to realise that our arrogant, weak, grumpy and gutless Prime Minister, who has squandered his popularity and now leads a government with a pathetic 30% first preference vote, but refuses to compromise with the Greens and independents to improve his inadequate vanilla legislation, the very people whose preferences he depends upon to govern but denigrates and blames for his failed first term, preferring to beg Dutton for approval, has been a huge disappointing failure.
————————
Well said. Seems Labor needs another term or 2 in Opposition to learn to be a true Labor government.
The Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison years were not enough. It seems.
When the Labor boss Shorten, whose priority is the USA, business and wealthy Australians – similar to Liberal policy, goes there might be a chance for Labor.
Further, I wonder if Biden and hence the Albanese government’s support for Israel and their continuing weapons supply to Israel will contribute to both losing the elections for their respective parties?
Supporting genocide is not a good look.
Mostly Interestedsays:
Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 6:22 pm
BK, got any info on stadia overrun? Asking for a local lib state government.
_____________________
The Vic Labor govt is your goto there.
There is not much they don’t know about cost overruns.
MJ – Yes, you are right about third party/indie seats, but in reality this is only 10% of all seats (and that’s an historical high point) – the vast majority of electorates are still the traditional Labor v Coalition contest.
Irene – it’s thus kind of woolly thinking that gives us endless conservative governments. It’s frankly pretty childish to argue that if you can’t get 100% of what you want from a Labor government (as opposed to, say 50%), within a single three year term, then toss them out, and get about 5% of what you want from a Coalition government. Cos history shows that the longer Labor stays in Opposition, the more conservative they become.
The uncomfortable truth for many of the hard Left is that they are far more comfortable with conservative governments. Not for them those tricky questions of having to compromise to get anything done and through a contested parliament. Far better to just rail at power from the sidelines and dream about the coming revolution.
Consider the Sydney lite rail for government led blow outs. Dan’s fault clearly.
mj @ #916 Saturday, October 5th, 2024 – 6:17 pm
This.
Childish? No. Insanity? Yes.
If you think a Coalition government will give you most of what you wanted from a Labor government but didn’t get, you are a Coalition voter.
Americans are facing this very choice right now. National security hawks, economic conservatives and those right-leaning voters who cling to the Republican party because they still believe the GOP can deliver these things are right now being slapped in the face with Trump-Putin, Trump tariffs, Trump abortion bans, Trump politically motivated border chaos, and Trump overall chaos as opposed to the complete opposite of this from the Harris Dems.
We have seen where the Liberal party goes, so if your instinct is to think that a Liberal govt will force Labor more leftward, then you clearly haven’t been paying attention to the last decade.
I’m not uncritical of the Vic Labor government but the SRL is a brilliant idea that will make Melbourne much better if it is allowed to proceed. The Liberals should get on board with it.
It’s a silly statement to suggest that the major parties are complacent. Both Liberal and Labor are more than aware that their vote share has declined over recent decades, and that politics is fracturing, and I’d say that wiser heads on both sides are constantly trying to find ways to arrest that slide. But I find many who argue about this seem to think that the answer is for said major parties to simply adopt . Trouble is that most people’s pet issue is very different (and sometimes contradictory) to another’s.
That David Speirs “deepfake” excuse is the funniest / lamest thing I’ve heard in a while. Does he actually expect people to believe it?
There’s another pair of potential SA by-elections coming up, too – Mt Gambier and Narungga. Both of those MPs are ex-Lib independents, re-elected while on trial, now convicted of various kinds of fraud. Troy Bell in particular would have to be gone – for half a million dollars, he’d be looking at a jail sentence. All three, file under T for Tory sleaze.
If Labor win Black, that’ll be two by-elections in a row where they’ve won the former Liberal leader’s seat. Has anything like that happened anywhere before? It’s rare enough for governments to win opposition seats in by-elections at all… surely that’d be some kind of record.
St Gladys was NSW transport minister when the Sydney SE LRT was planned and contract signed. The outcome is almost totally on her. She rushed the planning without getting all the services and land compensation agreements in place before construction started.
Sydney cost twice the price of Gold Coast LRT S1, which is the same length (13km).
With luck David Speers matter will still be proceeding next May.
Here’s hoping for a Sturt flip. SA Libs are such a rabble.
Socrates, what do you think of the Melbourne SRL?
Socrates says:
Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 7:12 pm
Building in a brownfield site over 100 years old is a lot different to the Gold Coast.
If labor’s talking points to members when faced by criticism is to just say do you want Dutton labor might well just concede the next election.
Arky says:
Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 5:41 pm
If he doesn’t understand that Hezbollah is basically another arm of the Iranian military then I am not sure what I can add. Describing them as a proxy is giving them far too much distance from the regime.
Hugoaugogosays:
Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 6:39 pm
MJ – Yes, you are right about third party/indie seats, but in reality this is only 10% of all seats (and that’s an historical high point) – the vast majority of electorates are still the traditional Labor v Coalition contest
…
The uncomfortable truth for many of the hard Left is that they are far more comfortable with conservative governments. Not for them those tricky questions of having to compromise to get anything done and through a contested parliament. Far better to just rail at power from the sidelines and dream about the coming revolution.
————
27 of 151 seats (about 18%) were non ALP v LNP contests in 2022 and there’s nothing to suggest this will decline at coming elections. Under 40’s in particular are as a group not satisfied with the status quo and the major parties are not doing much to win their loyalty whether they sit on the left or right.
It’s absurd to say that leftists are far more comfortable or prefer an LNP govt. Labor are a little better than the LNP for the issues that matter to them in govt but more importantly it gives parties like the Greens an opportunity to grow their vote when people realise how weak Labor are on actually advancing any sort of social democratic agenda. I think some people caught wind of how weak Labor were going to be with mantras like “no one held back, no one left behind” prior to the 2022 election which led to a late surge away from Labor.
Irenesays
Well said. Seems Labor needs another term or 2 in Opposition to learn to be a true Labor government.
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Do we need a good war to teach our youth the value of life?
sealion says:
Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 3:55 pm
A poll conducted by the Arab World for Research and Development in Gaza shows:
1) Support for Fatah 47%, Hamas 6%, National Initiative 4%, PFLP 2%.
2) Trust in providing humanitarian assistance right now shows UN 79%, Palestinian Authority Ministries 5%, Palestinian NGO’s 3%, Community Leaders 2%, Hamas-led institutions 1%.
3) Trust in leading governance of Gaza shows Palestinian Authority 40%, Unity Govt 36%, Hamas 6%, Technocrats 6%, Community Leaders 3%.
4) Most immediate concerns are Settling down/not having to move at 49%, Securing food and water 21%, Securing decent housing until reconstruction 16%, Respecting human rights of Gazans by internal actors 5%.
5) Views for a Final Status Solution are Two State 62%, One State/Equal Rights 19%, Federation with Jordan/Egypt 3%.
6) is Palestine heading in the right direction? Wrong direction 77%, right direction 16%.
https://www.awrad.org/files/server/PDF/AWRAD%20-%20Gaza%20Public%20Opinion%20Poll%20-%20Main%20Findings%20-%20September%202024.pdf
____________
Thanks for the relatively recent polling. Quite rare for this region. I hadn’t realised that Hamas was polling at 6%. Or that Fatah was polling so well.
$4.8 billion a year that’s what Victoria’s covid tax is raking in.
Highest unemployment rate in Australia ,$150 billion debt soon and wasting billions more on crazy tunnels in suburbs.
Rolled gold dud leftie leader.
Mostly Interestedsays:
Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 8:02 pm
Irenesays
Well said. Seems Labor needs another term or 2 in Opposition to learn to be a true Labor government.
—————
Do we need a good war to teach our youth the value of life?
————–
What’s that meant to mean? Sounds like a threat to shut up or else….we’ll shake our fists.
Any Bludgers in the crowd for Truss?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/oct/05/liz-truss-bbc-abc-state-media-left-australian-cpac-event-brisbane
If Truss had any self awareness she’d never be seen again. The UK makes our polity look relatively competent.
A few far-leftists advocating for a DLP strategy of preferencing Labor last until they become a worthy enough party for them.
Tell me, were the DLP successful in this strategy from 1955-1972? Or was it so that all they got was a perpetual Coalition government until they themselves became defunct as a political force?
I’m also betting most of them are thinking “I won’t like a Dutton government for 12+ years, but I’ll survive it intact.”
HH
It doesn’t look too good that Spiers was charged with supplying rather than possession of a controlled substance.
And to still have it on the premises a few weeks after the video was made public?
David Speirs, who recently resigned as SA Liberal leader will be facing drug charges after a video of him using substances was leaked. He will be stepping down from parliament. Which means a by-election in his seat of Black in the near future.
The seat currently has a 2.7% margin, so it is winnable by Labor (and they should definitely try), however I think it will be a bigger ask than Dunstan was – especially as Black is a more conventionally suburban seat, not an inner-city small-L seat where ideological realignment is a factor.
On a personal note, I’d normally be sympathetic to someone in Speirs’s situation. What one does in their own private life is their own business and I believe our drug laws are a bit too hardline and draconian, TBH (no, I am not a hard libertarian on the issue either.) However, considering he is politically aligned with people who think the book should be thrown at someone if they’re caught in possession of any volume of any narcotic substance, my sympathy is limited.
Mj
Truss and Johnson will travel the world for a next few years in their attempt at rewriting history and preaching to like minds.
They will undoubtedly make a good quid doing it.
Kirsdarke your argument is misleading and a red herring. Few people to the left of Labor, which range anywhere from the centre to the far left, are suggesting they are going to preference the LNP over Labor.
Diogenes @ #944 Saturday, October 5th, 2024 – 8:12 pm
^ This as well. (I missed the supplying part.)
And yeah, if such a video of me was leaked, I’d suddenly have a “bad case of diarrhea” that causes me to flush my toilet a lot.
In fact, further to my point about Labor’s chances in a Black by-election, they’d actually need to have a higher swing to them than they managed in Dunstan, so don’t bet the house on it.
@mj
Advocating for Labor to be put into at least 2 terms of opposition implies a position of “We should vote against Labor until we get what we want”.
The DLP did this to the extreme, advocating for just that to the point that DLP preferences went around 90-10 to the Liberals and lost Labor many elections at the time. And in the end they became nothing but a Glenn Druery Roulette party that occasionally won a few upper house seats from his preference whispering.