The Australian yesterday published the quarterly Newspoll aggregates, which combine three months of polling to produce breakdowns by state and various demographic indicators with credible sample sizes. The state breakdowns record the Coalition leading 51-49 in New South Wales (unchanged on the previous quarter, for a swing to the Coalition of around 2.5% from the 2022 election); Labor leading 52-48 in Victoria (in from 54-46, a Coalition swing of around 3%); the Coalition leading 54-46 in Queensland (steady on both the last quarter and the last election); Labor leading 52-48 in Western Australia (steady, a Coalition swing of around 3%); and Labor leading 54-46 in South Australia (out from 53-47, no swing from 2022). The national two-party preferred through this period was 50-50, after Labor led 51-49 last quarter. The results combine four Newspoll surveys from July 15 to September 20 with an overall sample of 5035, ranging from 374 in South Australia to 1592 in New South Wales.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition leading 51-49 on respondent-allocated preferences, after they trailed 50.5-49.5 last week, but these seem unduly favourable to them: the primary votes are Labor 30% (down two), Coalition 38% (up half), Greens 13.5% (up one) and One Nation 4.5% (down half), and the pollster’s two-party measures based on 2022 election preferences have Labor leading 51.5-48.5, in from 52-48. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1668.
ajm @ #49 Tuesday, October 1st, 2024 – 10:09 am
Arky there’s no good offering technocratic, centrist govt when the current status quo is failing to provide a growing number of people a future to be hopeful for. The times call for broader reforms which Labor doesn’t want to deliver.
Socrates @ #47 Tuesday, October 1st, 2024 – 9:59 am
He would say that. And there are people who would believe him. 😐
Arky @ #44 Tuesday, October 1st, 2024 – 9:42 am
These people never take a backward step, nor let facts and reality, or their ignorance, get in their way.
So the budget surplus.
Sadly the masses who receive their information from the MSM equate the Government budget with their household budget. A surplus means the Government is doing the right thing – simples. They don’t have the critical literacy or knowledge given to them that the Govt budget is totally different to a household budget.
The ALP’s, like all politicians, main game is to get re-elected. So if the people think a surplus is good, then that is what the ALP will deliver.
Having the budget surplus avoids an election issue. Having unemployed living in dire poverty and suffering the abject injustice of mutual obligations costs far fewer votes than the budget surplus provides.
And the ALP knows those most pissed off by this recognised the Coalition will be worse, so while some first preference votes may be lost, they will come back via preferences.
This is how an adult government operates (you would never have one of these with the Coalition in power):
https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-news-live-hezbollah-flag-wavers-face-jail-deportation-property-market-shows-signs-of-cooling-20241001-p5kesp.html
ANZ-Roy Morgan Aust Consumer Confidence fell 2.9pts after the RBA hold. Household confidence in current financial conditions fell 6.7pts, its largest weekly fall in over a year. Inflation expectations eased 0.3ppt.
If Labor is in minority Government next term with the support from the Teals, they may very well fall the way of Windsor and Oakeshott. The assumption of course is a labor minority Government will be as effective as it has been in majority, this being a given. The outcome may well be massive LNP victory after that. The size of the victory will be dependent on Dutton still being leader. Shades of Abbott’s victory.
Sage words from a lady pleasure device 😆
Steelydan says:
Tuesday, October 1, 2024 at 10:33 am
That has to be a foundational message for the Liberal campaigns in Teal held or threatened seats. The small numbers of ex-Liberal voters need to under that a Vote for a Teal is likely to end up guaranteeing confidence and supply to the ALP along with whatever harebrained schemes they dream up. And told over and over and over between now and May.
Good, then vote lnp like you know you want to and watch them deliver even less 😡
Yes, and a vote for the lnp is a vote for 7 nuclear waste creation units pissing $700,000,000,00+ into the safe notional party povo* seats, won’t the potential Teal voters just bloody love that 😆
(*) oh noes, they’ll have to take iodine tablets the rest of their lives but thug wouldn’t give a stuff 😮
Happy 100th Birthday Jimmy Carter!
Dutton’s calling for Parliament to be recalled over Sydney protestors who wore Hezbollah insignia. I can’t recall him complaining when Melbourne protestors were sporting Nazi symbols at Melbourne rallies.
In this article two technical analysts lay bare the state of the UK submarine industry, which is appalling. Regardless of motivations, nobody seems willing to admit that AUKUS as proposed may not be possible.
https://johnmenadue.com/the-wrong-trousers-focusing-on-the-real-aukus-issue/
If Marles has started a Morrison style media campaign to undermine AUKUS prior to cancellation, it is working splendidly.
davosays:
Tuesday, October 1, 2024 at 10:48 am
Good, then vote lnp like you know you want to and watch them deliver even less
———–
No that is not what I want. But I’m not going to settle for a slightly less bad Labor.
No, but constant sniping, will deliver this exact outcome, just look at that pathetic stunter bandt and max-moore-hyphen et all…
Holdenhillbilly @ #61 Tuesday, October 1st, 2024 – 11:06 am
Now he just wants to get to Early Vote in Georgia for Kamala. 🙂
Steelydan says:
Tuesday, October 1, 2024 at 10:33 am
That has to be a foundational message for the Liberal campaigns in Teal held or threatened seats. The small numbers of ex-Liberal voters need to under that a Vote for a Teal is likely to end up guaranteeing confidence and supply to the ALP along with whatever harebrained schemes they dream up. And told over and over and over between now and May.
___________________________________________________________
I fear they are that wealthy the cost of living will not affected them. Last time the LNP brand was painted as woman haters, that won’t be as effective this time but their wealth allows them to be our most hypocritical voters in Australia. I doubt a single one of the Teals does not have a trust fund. Quite frankly I am prepared for another three years of Labor if it would guarantee all the Teals lost their seats.
UK Cartoons and other miscellany
Ben Jennings (Kemi Badenoch wants maternity payments decreased.)
Morten Morland #MaternityPay
#MiddleEast
Patrick Blower
Matt
Brighty
Guy Venables
Tom Gauld
xkcd
Wayno
==========================================
Stolen from the internet
The Shovel
Mosman Protester Throws Glass of ’94 Penfolds Grange on Famous Artwork to Raise Awareness About Superannuation Changes
==================================
The French Connection
Chappatte
“Stop Now! Otherwise..” “I will send Antony Blinken again”
The newly appointed special envoy to combat Islamophobia, Aftab Malik, has vowed to advocate against hate directed at Muslim community and anti-Semitism, amid concerns the conflict in the Middle East is undermining social cohesion in Australia.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/aftab-malik-appointed-as-islamophobia-special-envoy/news-story/141ac3f0ae0fb212950a9232bd7da9a1?amp
—
Finally we have an Anti-Islamaphobio envoy to match the Anti-Semitism envoy appointed months ago. Better late than never I guess. Thats one of my irritants with Labor put to bed. They kind of put my irritant at a substantial investment in Domestic Violence to bed but it was a tricky announcement because only about a quarter of it was new money. Banning gambling Ads completely would be the third thing I think they dropped to ball on but I will waiting a long time to see any major party deal with that seriously. Other than that, Labor have done a pretty good job for a first term government, but they will need to be much more active and progressive to have something to sell the punters if they want a third term. The 3 month Newspoll data at 50-50 tells a story but we can argue all day about what go us there. I cant be bothered.
Vic Govt is there for the taking for the Vic Libs.
Seems though they are still an utter basket case.
Mavissays:
Tuesday, October 1, 2024 at 11:07 am
Dutton’s calling for Parliament to be recalled over Sydney protestors who wore Hezbollah insignia. I can’t recall him complaining when Melbourne protestors were sporting Nazi symbols at Melbourne rallies.
____________________________________________________________
You forgot to say, and the day after Andrews backed by the opposition banned the Nazi Salute.
I think Dutton is right to kick up a stink about the Hezbollah Flags being used on the weekend. Yes he is obviously wrong to call for a ban on refugees from Gaza etc ect, but on this flags issue he is on the money.
I see that the LNP and Labor have cosied up under the sheets again with a preference deal in Qld.
Mavissays:
Tuesday, October 1, 2024 at 11:07 am
Dutton’s calling for Parliament to be recalled over Sydney protestors who wore Hezbollah insignia. I can’t recall him complaining when Melbourne protestors were sporting Nazi symbols at Melbourne rallies.
___________________________________________________________
The riots were in mid may 2013 by late April Criminal Code Amendment (Prohibition of Nazi Symbols) Bill 2023 was passed. https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Legal_and_Constitutional_Affairs/SymbolProhibition2023
Rex Douglassays:
Tuesday, October 1, 2024 at 12:01 pm
I see that the LNP and Labor have cosied up under the sheets again with a preference deal in Qld.
—
That is another false post from you Rexy boy. The Liberals have made it clear they wont preference the Greens. Nothing to do with Labor. Try again.
@FUBAR: “That has to be a foundational message for the Liberal campaigns in Teal held or threatened seats. The small numbers of ex-Liberal voters need to under that a Vote for a Teal is likely to end up guaranteeing confidence and supply to the ALP along with whatever harebrained schemes they dream up. And told over and over and over between now and May.”
Gee I hope so.
Teal voters didn’t vote Teal to get a Dutton government.
I had a front row seat to Frydenberg spending oodles of Liberal Party money on pounding the message you like so much and it did him absolutely no good.
By all means, try it again.
Hopefully both envoys will be meeting with the major political parties and MSM outlets to stamp out the obvious dog-whistling.
@Mavis – I remember Dreyfus made that suggestion about Dutton being quiet about the neo Nazis in Melbourne and Dutton absolutely blew his top about it. It’s at least fair to say he’s been a lot quicker off the mark to publicly condemn the Hezbollah supporters
I think Kyle and Jackie should take the hint from Victorians and take their act elsewhere.
Afternoon bludgers!
“ Mr Malik, an internationally recognised Muslim scholar and public servant, said Islamophobia and anti-Semitism could often be found “lurking” together…”
————
I suspect this is the “public servant” talking.
Seemingly, another meaningless pious gesture.
Arky says:
Tuesday, October 1, 2024 at 12:05 pm
If you think that the coming election will be about the same issues as the last one, good luck to you. Please do not listen to anything I say.
We have now seen the true colours of the Teal Party – just Greens proxies. The very small number of ex-Liberal voters who previously voted for them will be feeling very short-changed. They were told they were getting conservative representation that also supported the environment. It’s been far from that. I don’t expect the Liberals to win them all back but there are at least 4 that I believe are winnable this coming election.
What deal?
The LNP is doing the correct thing and putting the Watermelons last, at the risk of the ALP picking up seats that they might not have otherwise.
The ALP are still happy to cut their nose off too spite their face and play footsies with the Watermelons. They must think that keeping their friends close and enemies closer is a rule to live by.
Lebanon: Authorities in Australia and Canada have made contingency plans that could include evacuation by sea. Australia has urged an estimated 15,000 of its citizens in Lebanon to leave while Beirut airport remains open. News reports from Canada suggest it will co-operate with Australia, in a plan that involves contracting a commercial vessel to transport 1,000 people out each day, the Toronto Star reported.
Plenty of time before the next election. Pesutto likely to lose the defamation case and then lose the leadership. Things should sort themselves out after that in time to win the next election.
Holdenhillbilly says:
Tuesday, October 1, 2024 at 1:01 pm
This is ridiculous. DFAT has been telling them for months and months to leave, let alone do not travel there.
Where does individual responsibility begin?
The ALP are calling for a ceasefire in Lebanon. Perhaps they could explain how they can enforce, let alone guarantee a ceasefire by Hezbollah.
This guy is extremely lucky IMO. I can’t help feeling some jail time is warranted. Is simply the fact that someone has a gambling addiction enough to enable them to escape what would be the usual consequences of committing such a reprehensible criminal act?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-01/lachlan-morganti-hannah-mcguire-gofundme-stolen-sentence/104412986
Traditional and genuine conservative voters who made the switch to a conservative Teal independent will be very comfortable with their choice to abandon the increasingly extreme modern day Liberal Party that produced a Trillion dollar debt, cost of living increases and policies that damage their great outdoors activities.
The Malinauskas Government says it will move to expel Independent MP Troy Bell from parliament unless he appeals his guilty verdict within 16 days, with the Mount Gambier MP expected to make a statement this afternoon.
InDaily understands Bell is drafting a statement about his intentions, following last Thursday’s District Court verdict finding him guilty of stealing more than $436,000 from an educational not-for-profit between 2009 and 2013.
https://www.indaily.com.au/news/politics/2024/10/01/govt-threatens-to-expel-mp-from-parliament
There’s been more than enough handwringing from the Australian Govt re the Netanyahu Govt.
Sanctions are long overdue.
Dandy
Great to see you around!
This demonstrates that you wouldn’t know a conservative if you tripped over one, SFA about the LNP, and definitely know bugger all about economics.
Rex, thanks for passing on the news that Labor have agreed to preference the LNP ahead of the Greens in Queensland — a massive scoop, exclusive to this forum.
“The US Energy Department has released an updated Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Advanced Nuclear report that finds nuclear is “one of the few proven options” to deliver at least 700GW to 900GW of additional clean firm capacity required for the country to reach net zero.
“Nuclear does not ‘displace’ or ‘compete with’ renewables; decarbonisation will require both new nuclear and renewable capacity. Including nuclear and other clean firm resources reduces the cost of decarbonisation by reducing the need for additional variable generation capacity, energy storage, and transmission,” the report states.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/politics-latest-labor-compromising-national-security-to-stop-votes-drifting-to-greens-says-dutton/live-coverage/a1d91eb2684bbade509d745f371b9d66#155599
FUBAR: “The ALP are calling for a ceasefire in Lebanon. Perhaps they could explain how they can enforce, let alone guarantee a ceasefire by Hezbollah.”
—————————————————————————–
Yes, it’s utterly ridiculous. As silly as someone calling for a ceasefire between America and Al Qaeda back in 2001. Or a ceasefire between the cops and the Chicago mob back in the prohibition era.
The Albo Government has tangled itself up in knots trying to appease the Australian Muslims who up to now have voted for it, its own left faction and the voters in the inner city electorates who swing between voting Labor and Green. As a result, it has adopted a muddled set of foreign policy positions without in any way satisfying the stakeholders it had set out to mollify.
A meh government at its most meh.
“The ALP are calling for a ceasefire in Lebanon. Perhaps they could explain how they can enforce, let alone guarantee a ceasefire by Hezbollah.”
As are most countries. Waste of time. Nobody prepared to enforce or guarantee but get condemned if you say nothing about it. The US are no different. Can you imagine calling for them to ceasefire in the Iraq or Afghanistan invasions? They would have been just as ignorant and kept fighting.
Is the ALP Federal Government putting the ADF on alert to deploy into Southern Lebanon and/or Gaza to enforce a ceasefire?