The Australian yesterday published the quarterly Newspoll aggregates, which combine three months of polling to produce breakdowns by state and various demographic indicators with credible sample sizes. The state breakdowns record the Coalition leading 51-49 in New South Wales (unchanged on the previous quarter, for a swing to the Coalition of around 2.5% from the 2022 election); Labor leading 52-48 in Victoria (in from 54-46, a Coalition swing of around 3%); the Coalition leading 54-46 in Queensland (steady on both the last quarter and the last election); Labor leading 52-48 in Western Australia (steady, a Coalition swing of around 3%); and Labor leading 54-46 in South Australia (out from 53-47, no swing from 2022). The national two-party preferred through this period was 50-50, after Labor led 51-49 last quarter. The results combine four Newspoll surveys from July 15 to September 20 with an overall sample of 5035, ranging from 374 in South Australia to 1592 in New South Wales.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition leading 51-49 on respondent-allocated preferences, after they trailed 50.5-49.5 last week, but these seem unduly favourable to them: the primary votes are Labor 30% (down two), Coalition 38% (up half), Greens 13.5% (up one) and One Nation 4.5% (down half), and the pollster’s two-party measures based on 2022 election preferences have Labor leading 51.5-48.5, in from 52-48. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1668.
MJ, it means Irene said something stupid which deserved a stupid response.
Yeah what the left needs is for the centre left part to go into opposition, that’ll teach them how to be more left. FFS.
Kirsdarke I’ve only seen one poster make that argument so far, it doesnt make sense to most people to the left of Labor. The DLP were a very different party back when people voted on sectarian lines (ie Catholic=Labor, Protestant=Liberal/NP) and served to migrate people from sectarian affiliation – that dynamic no longer exists so there is no useful comparison to whats happening now. The modern iteration of the DLP is barely worth mentioning.
mjsays:
Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 8:46 pm
Kirsdarke your argument is misleading and a red herring. Few people to the left of Labor, which range anywhere from the centre to the far left, are suggesting they are going to preference the LNP over Labor.
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I certainly will be voting against my warmongering Labor MP. He will be last on my ballot in a seat with voters who do not agree with increased military spending such as increasing weapons manufacturing as a ‘made in Australia ‘ Labor policy.
How will Labor ever know that copying most Liberal policies- supporting the USA, business, wealthy Australians is not wanted by voters?
Apparently 30% or less first preference for Labor, compared to the 43.3% when Rudd won for Labor in November 2007, on a social democrat platform, not the Liberal lite Labor policy today, is an acceptable vote. For the Labor bosses who decide Labor policy
Before Dawn
Filmed in WA. A number of my friends are extras in this.
https://m.imdb.com/video/vi3871720985/?playlistId=tt10869956&ref_=tt_pr_ov_vi
@Integrity Rex (9:32am):
“ History will record that Dutton clearly isn’t hiding his support for Netanyahu’s human slaughter.
Albo, as we’ve come to learn, just reads the script given to him from his US masters.”
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But surely, as the self appointed custodian of political integrity in this country, you would agree that the most pressing need in Australian politics today is for Adam Baa-ndt to Manage Dorinda Cox out!
Ps. Your absence from the blog once the Cox story broke yesterday was noted Integrity. As is your continuing inability to critique The Greens Political Party over this affair.
R U OK? Do you need a cyber hug?
Irene, you ask:
How will Labor ever know that copying most Liberal policies- supporting the USA, business, wealthy Australians is what is wanted by voters?
…………..
Labor won’t. They will assume, sensibly enough, that you (and others) having preferenced the LNP over Labor, to gain your support they should move further right.
The only problem with your claim is it is almost completely false. Rudd went in as Howard-lite. He proudly proclaimed himself an economic conservative – I can post the video again if you want me to. He wasn’t going to change immigration policy (until he did and how’s that work out?), wasn’t going to touch superannuation.
Unfortunately, and it has been said before, there is no moral high ground in the terrible things that are happing around Gaza.
News report tonight was that “two Israeli soldiers were killed” in some kind of battle. This, along side thousands (mainly civilians) dead in Gaza itself.
How in the world can there be any kind of moral outrage/moral superiority by one side over the other?
Those who seem to think that the actions of the Israeli government over a number of years in killing groups of Palestinians is somehow of a higher moral plane than the slaughter of civilian Israeli citizens by Hamas is beyond me.
Those who clamour for blind support/succour for one side over the other are in an impossible position.
And to stick with the ‘rules’ – as it were – and relate to Oz politics, the gambit of Dutton trying to get on the High Moral Ground by just supporting one side (Israel) and calling supporters of the other side something like traitors or the like, shows the guy is totally unfit to be either PM or leader of his party.
Real Liberals must be ashamed of him.
The cheer squad from the narrow-minded right, however, seem to suck up to this kind of boots and all approach.
Defence spending as a share of the economy was higher under Whitlam, he created the modern combined services defence department, while taxes were lower. Surely this make Albo and co “super progressive” by comparison?
Kirsdarke: The DLP weren’t far-left. They were expressly anti-communist – it was their main reason for existence. They had good reasons to prefer a Liberal government to a Labor one. That doesn’t apply to people to the left of Labor (unless there’s a truly awful Labor govt like NSW under Obeid / Tripodi).
Irene: 20 years of opposition since 1996 hasn’t made Labor a more left-wing party; if anything, it’s done the opposite. The one lesson they seem to have learned is that pissing off the conservative media is a fast way back to opposition, so whatever else, don’t do that. That’s how we ended up with a cowardly shadow of a party that’s become petrified of being perceived as left-wing, and a permanent 10-15% of voters who have broken away as a consequence. It’s a reason to vote Green ahead of Labor, but not Liberal ahead of Labor. Try to remember who the real enemy is.
Irene:doubling down with the angry lefty stupid. Unity ticket with all the other leftist flogs on this board.
Here is some actual footage of the political left trying to woo “centreist” voters:
https://youtu.be/svZdNI8aQns?si=Es4_wOEjwRBtPgKE
I certainly will be voting against my warmongering Labor MP. He will be last on my ballot in a seat with voters who do not agree with increased military spending such as increasing weapons manufacturing as a ‘made in Australia ‘ Labor policy…
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Irene, I don’t think the Liberal party would offer anything less warmongering in your view and so if you prefer a more social democratic platform if nothing else the logical choice is to prefer Labor over the LNP.
I’m aware the DLP wasn’t far-left, true, but I’m also aware on how their preferential voting tactics served only to keep the Coalition in power and there’s at least a couple of people here that advocate for doing exactly the same thing.
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 9:24 pm
Irene:doubling down with the angry lefty stupid. Unity ticket with all the other leftist flogs on this board.
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A flog – being you – accusing others of being flogs. How about you try and make an argument rather than degrade?
That Albanese government is some sort of sell-out disappointment seems to be an article of faith among some of the comrades, but there doesn’t appear to be much evidence for grist view – seems very much like a pre-existing conclusion looking for proof. This is a government elected on a moderate centre-Left platform, and by and large it has delivered on its promises, despite only having a narrow House majority (and no Senate majority) and in the face of a hostile media (both traditional and social) – the only election promises they haven’t actually enacted are those stymied by the Senate. This has been accomplished a competent and scandal free government, despite heavy economic headwinds (which they have seemed to bring under some control).
What were people expecting?
mjsays:
Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 9:25 pm
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Labor are Liberal lite, with not enough difference to the Liberals.
Might as well support Liberals ahead of Labor.
Many voters will be doing it too. Hence Labor’s low opinion polling.
Hugo, Labor will have a primary vote probably in the 20’s come the election. Young people can’t afford to buy or even rent a house and the govt has done next to nothing to help younger generations. You can dismiss them as “comrades” or actually acknowledge and then address this huge problem or see the Labor party fade into nothing.
Hugoaugogosays:
Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 9:48 pm
That Albanese government is some sort of sell-out disappointment seems to be an article of faith among some of the comrades, but there doesn’t appear to be much evidence for grist view – seems very much like a pre-existing conclusion looking for proof. This is a government elected on a moderate centre-Left platform, and by and large it has delivered on its promises, despite only having a narrow House majority (and no Senate majority) and in the face of a hostile media (both traditional and social) – the only election promises they haven’t actually enacted are those stymied by the Senate. This has been accomplished a competent and scandal free government, despite heavy economic headwinds (which they have seemed to bring under some control).
What were people expecting?
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Government talks about equality and not leaving anyone behind should have responded better to the royal commission.
Irenesays:
Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 9:50 pm
mjsays:
Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 9:25 pm
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Labor are Liberal lite, with not enough difference to the Liberals.
Might as well support Liberals ahead of Labor.
Many voters will be doing it too. Hence Labor’s low opinion polling
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Vote as you like, but it makes no sense to me to vote for what is clearly worse than what you actually want.
MJ – I’m not denying these and other problems, though I would note that the housing crisis, like most issues facing the nation, have built up over many years (like, under 9 years of Coalition government), and thus not really of Labor’s making, while you and others are giving them no credit for measures taken (and in some cases openly opposed) and expecting them to have fixed everything in a little over two years. As I say, they are a government that has fulfilled most of its election promises and not really broken any, while at the same time dealing with the worst inflation spike in 40 years (dealing with it largely successfully I might add), and yet you and your fellow travellers are OTT disparaging of the government. That looks to me very much like a bad faith judgement, one you were always going to arrive at no matter what the government did.
Kirsdarke at 9.25 pm
When senior External Affairs officials trief to persuade their Minister, Billy McMahon, to watch the breeze and follow the US in moving toward dealing with Communist China as the real government of China, McMahon showed his contempt for international politics by instructing the officials to “don’t forget we have a DLP”.
When McMahon claimed that Mao had played with Whitlam like a fisherman plays a trout, he was prancing for the DLP ovation, only to be exposed as a lazy nobody by Kissinger’s visit to China, which overlapped with Whitlam’s bold venture there.
The rest is history. The DLP became less than a sundry outfit, and the main game in relations with China is how to trade, not to demonise them.
Meanwhile the Teals have more nouse than Senator Harradine. Ms Tink was “cancelled” by the AEC, but the others will survive.
Mex – see my earlier comment that complaints about the government are often couched in this way – if only they’d do more/better about “issue x that I feel strongly about”, then they’d be much better. Except then you’d be complained about issue y. It’s a mug’s game trying to evaluate any government on any single issue – you have to look at the general, overall performance, and on that score, I’d give the government a solid B+.
I reckon that Irene thinks they’re one of those that will do just fine under a Dutton government.
Hugoaugogosays:
Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 10:11 pm
Mex – see my earlier comment that complaints about the government are often couched in this way – if only they’d do more/better about “issue x that I feel strongly about”, then they’d be much better. Except then you’d be complained about issue y. It’s a mug’s game trying to evaluate any government on any single issue – you have to look at the general performance, and on that score, I’d give the government a solid B+.
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The royal commission covered a number of long neglected policy areas and i judge government on what it does for the disadvantaged and this government is a vary big disappointment so give this government an F.
Hugo I’m not suggesting the issues we face now are a result of this govt alone, but they need to be taking serious action to the next election to solve them otherwise we’ll have a growing number of destitute, desperate people who will then vote for anything but Labor.
Personally I related alot to Albo and had a lot of time for him given our similar life circumstances but he’s just proven to be a political operator he is no Keating.
Kirsdarke: The DLP weren’t far-left. They were expressly anti-communist
The DLP didn’t form until 1963, years after the Labor splits of 1955 and ’57, which were about power rather than ideology anyway.
Vince Gair was good at politics, he quickly took control and was elected Leader in the Senate.
Gair had a few scores to settle wsith his erstwhile Party, the iept Lionel Murphy assisted by moving 170 Motions to deny the Government Supply over the years.
It was the Communist Party preferences in Moreton that saved the Menzies Government in 1961, that was before the DLP existed.
Irene at 9.50 pm
Been banging on about “better Liberals” on social media in the Bega Valley have you? If not, have a look at what the stupid majority of Greens voters there did in the Mayoral election.
The one female candidate out of five was Labor’s Helen O’Neil, who was well ahead on primary votes, and a breath of fresh air.
She lost the Mayoral race by 36 votes to a dolt named Russell Fitzpatrick, the outgoing Mayor, whose main claim to fame was being a publican in Gundagai in days gone by. A former conservative councillor called him as a waste of space.
How did he win? Only 47% of Greens’ voters preferred the smart woman, O’Neil. Small numbers preferred one of the three Tories. Over a thousand couldn’t think beyond no. 1, i.e. preferred to give up deciding.
At the federal level Labor is protected from such stupidity by full preferential voting. The Green hierarchy at a federal level will support that system, because they don’t like to be irrelevant. Yet not all Greens supporters can understand that.
Hugoaugogosays:
Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 10:11 pm.
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Albo is dragging them down.
Focus groups are saying he is weak.
The polls at 50/50 do not equate to B+ territory. After 10 years of the Coalition, would be more around the C- mark.
You are being a bit generous with your B+.
As for the upcoming Black by-election. Answering my own question from last page… seats of former opposition party leaders (premiers and/or LOTO) to be lost in by-elections to the government, going back to about WW2.
SA: Dunstan 2024 (Steven Marshall) – 1st term of Malinauskas govt.
Vic: Burwood 1999 (Jeff Kennett) – 1st term of Bracks govt. Have Benalla 2000 as a bonus.
NSW: Earlwood 1978 (Eric Willis) – 1st term of Wran govt.
WA: Gascoyne 1951 (Frank Wise) – 2nd term of McLarty govt.
Dishonourable mentions to Frome (SA 2009) and Surfers Paradise (Qld 2001), where the opposition lost its former leader’s seat to the crossbench. Also maybe Fremantle (WA 2009) – Jim McGinty was leader in the 90’s, so it kinda counts.
As far as I can tell, that’s it. Not entirely unprecedented, but very rare. In most of those cases, the opposition got thumped at the next election. If it happened twice in one term to consecutive leaders, it’d be the first time that’s ever happened. And presumably VERY bad news for the SA Libs.
On a 2.7% margin, given the circumstances, and with that Wolf+Smith poll last month showing a 60-40 lead to Labor (a 5% swing), it’s definitely a chance.
This may throw consternation in the US Universities Halls of Wokery!!
Just joking! They’re impervious
Indigenous Peoples of the Middle East propose 12 State solution to resolve the problem of fundamentalist Arab-Islamic imperialism & violence.
Egyptians were never really Christians.
The 10% of Egyptians who are Christians would dispute that.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 10:34 pm
Egyptians were never really Christians.
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That is a really weird and ignorant statement.
Egypt was a major source of the development of Christian theology, particularly Christology.
Christian monasticism originated in Egypt in the 3rd century and it had direct connections to monasticism in Ireland, Wales and Cornwall.
I think Egyptians are not true Christians in the same way that no true Scotsman puts sugar on his porridge.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_true_Scotsman
Those Egyptians are Oriental Orthodox and non-Chalcedonian
So are they Christian…. really?
(In the sense of are Mormons really Christian?)
One of many great Egyptian “Fathers” of the Church was St Athanasius
https://www.britannica.com/biography/Saint-Athanasius
Perc Tucker lost his seat at the ’74 Election, he’d boaster he’d wipe the floor with Joh Bjelke Petersen.
All those others, the ex leader resigned, they lost the seat at the byelection.
Are Russian Orthodox Christian? Is Greek Orthodox Christian? Do they believe in the real Jesus?
Badthinker, in what world did the DLP not form until 1963? Is this some cutesy rubbish about state-based party entities or something?
Mj
Compared to the coptic njs close enough.
Eastern orthodox -incl Russian and Greek consider the spirit to have proceeded from the Father while true Christians know the Spirit proceeds from the Father AND the Son.
Yes, millions have died over this vital difference in the past 1000 years but now each side recognises the other’s sacraments and its a case of agreeing to differ.
Rikalisays:
Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 10:47 pm
Mexicanbeemer says:
Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 10:34 pm
Egyptians were never really Christians.
————-
That is a really weird and ignorant statement.
Egypt was a major source of the development of Christian theology, particularly Christology.
Christian monasticism originated in Egypt in the 3rd century and it had direct connections to monasticism in Ireland, Wales and Cornwall.
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Christians were active in Egypt but did it ever become the state religion.
Stinker
Dumb stuff indeed. I can only imagine he is referring to Queensland where the DLP was called the QLP until 1963.
Mb
Under the Romans it was certainly the state religion
Oakeshott Country says:
Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 11:09 pm
Mj
Compared to the coptic njs close enough.
Eastern orthodox -incl Russian and Greek consider the spirit to have proceeded from the Father while true Christians know the Spirit proceeds from the Father AND the Son.
Yes, millions have died over this vital difference in the past 1000 years but now each side recognises the other’s sacraments and its a case of agreeing to differ.
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You seem to be a full of malevolent bullshit. Just saying
OC
Under the Romans it was certainly the state religion
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Yep will pay that.
Mexicanbeemer
Christians were active in Egypt????
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Were you educated in America, by any chance?
Oakeshott Country says:
Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 11:09 pm
Mj
Compared to the coptic njs close enough.
Eastern orthodox -incl Russian and Greek consider the spirit to have proceeded from the Father while true Christians know the Spirit proceeds from the Father AND the Son.
Yes, millions have died over this vital difference in the past 1000 years but now each side recognises the other’s sacraments and its a case of agreeing to differ
————
It’s pointless and sad that so many people have died over such meaningless differences.
Mj
It’s pointless and sad that so many people have died over such meaningless differences tb
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Do not be alarmed dear mj.
Millions did NOT die over the “filioque” clause.
Oakshott County is not telling the truth. He seems to have an agenda.
Rikali
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Were you educated in America, by any chance?
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nup why do you ask?
Bottom line is Labor needs to be achieving outcomes for people if it wants people to vote for them. It’s no good saying “but what if Dutton” it’s irrelevant .