The Australian yesterday published the quarterly Newspoll aggregates, which combine three months of polling to produce breakdowns by state and various demographic indicators with credible sample sizes. The state breakdowns record the Coalition leading 51-49 in New South Wales (unchanged on the previous quarter, for a swing to the Coalition of around 2.5% from the 2022 election); Labor leading 52-48 in Victoria (in from 54-46, a Coalition swing of around 3%); the Coalition leading 54-46 in Queensland (steady on both the last quarter and the last election); Labor leading 52-48 in Western Australia (steady, a Coalition swing of around 3%); and Labor leading 54-46 in South Australia (out from 53-47, no swing from 2022). The national two-party preferred through this period was 50-50, after Labor led 51-49 last quarter. The results combine four Newspoll surveys from July 15 to September 20 with an overall sample of 5035, ranging from 374 in South Australia to 1592 in New South Wales.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition leading 51-49 on respondent-allocated preferences, after they trailed 50.5-49.5 last week, but these seem unduly favourable to them: the primary votes are Labor 30% (down two), Coalition 38% (up half), Greens 13.5% (up one) and One Nation 4.5% (down half), and the pollster’s two-party measures based on 2022 election preferences have Labor leading 51.5-48.5, in from 52-48. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1668.
Hugo, I should bookmark that reply (at 4.27pm). Really well expressed.
Hugoaugogosays:
Tuesday, October 1, 2024 at 6:57 pm
Nicholas – and it’s a classic political tragic’s misconception that most people pay attention to politics at any level. You are probably right to note that most people don’t even know what the ACCC is, but some will be vaguely mindful that the government is “doing something”, which in political terms is all that matters, and in policy terms is probably a lot more effective in the long run than simply chucking money at a perceived problem – and of course, most people a) won’t even know that money has been spent, and that b) will have forgotten about it within a week.
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The important thing is if Albo actually acts because it’s easy making the announcement but many people are cynical about it but would welcome action.
If the election results in a hung parliament, I doubt that Labor would choose to get into bed with the Greens. A far more harmonious marriage would be between Dutton & Bandt given they’ve been engaged since the last election. That said, a couple of cuts to the cash rate will more than likely result in a majority Labor government.
And of course the major parties of the Right – in Australia the Liberals and their country cousins – are the vehicle of the most powerful elite of the lot – the corporate elites. All the rest is sound and fury to garner the numbers. This is necessary for the Right because no matter how elite you might be in corporate power and wealth, you only get one vote (or zero, if you’re Rupert).
And further to that C@t, Julian Hill wants to know that if people were waving hezbollah flags, how do you know they were on a visa? It’s just Dutton’s racist tendencies on display again.
Dutton 1
ABC Reporter 0
RE colesworth and the ACCC
There need to be consequences
Serious consequences
People are pretty pissed off after the whole robodebt fiasco, a royal commission, and then…… Nothing. NACC says nothing to see here and then essentially no real consequences for anyone involved, certainly not any of the politicians
Sure the 30mil for the ACCC sounds good, but it will be meaningless if nothing happens. This is exactly the sort of stuff that makes people feel like the whole thing is rigged and that politicians look after themselves first.
I note as well that Woolies at least has unleashed a barrage of feel good advertising to try and limit the fallout and hope it falls out of the media cycle quickly. Sadly they’re probably right
I actually doubt that we will see a hung parliament, but if we do, Labor is going to be far more likely to be in a position to form a minority government than the Coalition will be. The current numbers in the House are 78 Labor, 55 Coalition, and 16 others (including 4 Greens). Current polling suggests a swing of around 2% from the election, which, if uniform, would see Labor losing just 4 seats. Of course, any swing won’t be uniform, and there will be swings all over the place, including some towards Labor – but a 4-5 seat loss seems like a reasonable assumption on current polling.
This would see Labor reduced to around 72-73 seats, and Coalition in the low 60s. There’s simply no plausible way for Dutton to piece together a working majority on those numbers.
And the Greens, for their part, would really have no option but to back a Labor government. Greens voters don’t vote that way to get Peter Dutton as PM – if the Greens were to back up a Coalition minority government their vote would halve at the subsequent election.
I see the ABC has paid for a report to reveal that it is a large organisation full of Australians, and thus some are racists as you’d expect on the statistics.
The thing about commissioning these reports is they will ALWAYS come back declaring your organisation is filthy racist scum. You’d think the ABC would have learned from all the football clubs that have gone down this path. I am not convinced that much good comes out of it. Especially for an org like the ABC which must already have as many diversity policies and behaviour training programs as any org in Australia apart from maybe universities. What are they going to do now besides announce some new people in charge of fixing the problem?
One of the things quoted in the report is ABC employees referring to people as diversity hires and quota hires who weren’t hired on merit. Since you can’t refuse to hire people on their political beliefs, you aren’t going to be able to avoid having employees with that kind of belief about diversity hiring practices no matter how many reports you commission….
Hugoaugogo @ #208 Tuesday, October 1st, 2024 – 7:11 pm
That’s true. For there to be a Dutton victory in 2025, there would have to be seat gains in NSW, Victoria and WA similar to that of the 2013 election. And it just doesn’t seem to be up there at the moment.
Hugoaugogosays:
Tuesday, October 1, 2024 at 7:11 pm
I actually doubt that we will see a hung parliament, but if we do, Labor is going to be far more likely to be in a position to form a minority government than the Coalition will be. The current numbers in the House are 78 Labor, 55 Coalition, and 16 others (including 4 Greens). Current polling suggests a swing of around 2% from the election, which, if uniform, would see Labor losing just 4 seats. Of course, any swing won’t be uniform, and there will be swings all over the place, including some towards Labor – but a 4-5 seat loss seems like a reasonable assumption on current polling.
This would see Labor reduced to around 72-73 seats, and Coalition in the low 60s. There’s simply no plausible way for Dutton to piece together a working majority on those numbers.
And the Greens, for their part, would really have no option but to back a Labor government. Greens voters don’t vote that way to get Peter Dutton as PM – if the Greens were to back up a Coalition minority government their vote would halve at the subsequent election.
————–
Fair assessment because we can pick on Albo and his government but the alternative doesn’t exist and it’s possible the liberals pick up more seats from the cross bench than from labor.
Re Hugoaugogo @7:11. ”And the Greens, for their part, would really have no option but to back a Labor government. Greens voters don’t vote that way to get Peter Dutton as PM – if the Greens were to back up a Coalition minority government their vote would halve at the subsequent election.”
While Labor shouldn’t be complacent, I agree. Labor should be tough in negotiating any agreement on support and supply with the Greens.
As to what will happen to the Greens if they support a minority Dutton Government, will their vote halve? I think it would collapse, rather like that of the UK LDP when they supported David Cameron. Their vote fell by two thirds and seat numbers collapsed in 2015; or Australian Democrats after they supported Howard’s GST. It could be the end of the Greens.
Same goes for the Teals.
Can’t see Bandt and Dutton doing any deals because both leaders would be rejected by their bases.
If it does come down to a minority government situation at the 2025 election, I can see a “Call bluff” situation where Labor dares the LNP and Greens to try and form government with a confidence and supply agreement.
Yes it could backfire on them, but there’s a bigger risk of it backfiring on Dutton and Bandt, while Labor has a most enjoyable time pointing out how both of them suck and just win back power in 2028 if not earlier.
Two things I am certain of, in the US the Republicans will regret endorsing Trump and here the Libs will wish they had found someone other than Dutton.
“ Eddy
“dave” or whatever moniker he’s using now has all the genuineness of Scomo’s smile as when he was standing behind MT.
“dave” the “always comes second” character contributing to a lifetime of venom and wayward spittle.
Eddy enjoy your new found fiend !”
goll, I think I’ll find my own way getting to know the many posters here. I engaged with dave because he made me laugh and he has good taste in dark movies. I’ll actually engage with any poster no matter their opinions as long as they show respect and don’t denigrate other posters, which you just did.
Arky says:
Tuesday, October 1, 2024 at 7:12 pm
Much like what the Australian Antarctic Division did to themselves – held an inquiry into sexism and discovered that a group of fit young Australians sent away to live cheek to jowl for six months meant some people were after some adult relationships. Who would have thought?? And then appointed Canberra Do Gooders with zero expedition experience to “change the organisation”. Fucking disaster. Fortunately the pendulum is swinging back now.
There isn’t any evidence to suggest that it’s likely Labor will be elected back to a majority position at the next election atm. They still haven’t totally arrested either their 2PP or primary vote slide on the polling trends, maybe they’ll improve their position maybe they won’t but if an election were held today they’d probably be looking at 65-75 seats.
“ And the Greens, for their part, would really have no option but to back a Labor government.”
Hugoaugogo, I think you have this the wrong way around.
Labor, for their part, would really have no option but to accept the backing of the Greens if they wished to form government.
Kirsdarke says:
Tuesday, October 1, 2024 at 7:41 pm
… or there the scenario of the LNP getting enough non-Green/Teal Party to give confidence and supply.
Eddy
Happy to be off your list of engagements!
You’ve marked your card.
The ALP will want Government again so much that they’ll sell their arses again, like Gillard.
Thanks Eddy for your posts today, and also for sticking up for one of this sites best posters, nadia88.
She was treated like shit on this site last night and i don’t no why or where this is coming from. She was commenting on the morgan poll, which i thought this site was set up for.
It’s noted that wb created a new thread today for morgan.
Elmer Dudd launched into her at 7.52pm, and steve davis earlier, though my reply against davis got “deleted”, of course.
Obviously dudd and davis don’t have an issue with wb talking about morgan. Clearly it’s nadia they want off the site.
Lordbain or been there wouldn’t have put up with shit posts from shit posters.
I am a nadia88 follower too. She’s fair, and also handy with the odd footy tip too.
Albo can’t govern now, but he’ll succeed in Minority depending on Katter, Sharkie, Spender, Wilkie, Haines and The Greens for Confidence and Supply?
Pull the other one, it plays Jingle Bells!
Proof? I was commenting on the site “last night” and saw nothing of the sort.
Labor source says sky news Clennel four seats in NSW labor trail in Gilmore,Robinson,Paterson and Bennelong .
Curtain gone in WA.
I believe that Netanyahu’s aim is to spark a war between Israel and Iran, which will 100% draw in the United States PRIOR to the election. There will be too my much pressure from pro Israel elements within the United States to become directly involved. Netanyahu is no fool, he senses the power vacuum in the United States provided by the ailing Biden and is seizing the moment.
Biden helped himself today and told Iran more or less not to act against Israel as they will be like Gaza is now back to a Stone Age future. no electricity or plumbing.
Elmer Dudd
You are a goose. You turn up on this site like you own the place, you clown. Get yourself “your own life outside polling”.
Hello: most of us are on this site to monitor the polling.
Go the Greens, hope we start smashing you laborites.
Posters like you are a shocking example of ‘labor values’.
At least the Green posters are humble and respectful, even whilst they have shit flung at them all day long.
The march of the Greens. Go!
Poster further up says Israel has invaded Lebanon, but am not seeing that confirmed elsewhere.
The ALP will want Government again so much that they’ll sell their arses again, like Gillard.
That was Abbott who would have sold his arse. Sadly for him, there were no takers.
Eddy at 8.08pm
Of course labor wouldn’t have any other option, though it might me an interesting gov’t with labor relying on the ex liberal teals.
Birds of a feather of course.
Can’t wait to see labor in minority. They’re shit at majority gov’t. Just crap.
The Teals can’t back Dutton cos climate change.
Eurozone inflation dropped to 1.8% in September. First sub-2% reading since June 2021.
Inflation in the major Eurozone economies is lower:
Germany 1.6%, France & Spain 1.5%, Italy, 0.7%.
The Greens are shit at BOP. Just crap. Can’t wait to see the Teals roll over the top of the Greens.
Also support Nadia88’s posts, they are always well considered.
Fortunately the number of posts that attempt to push people off the site because they criticise the government or even discuss unfavourable polls has markedly diminished over the last few months but it does still exist.
Badthinker: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-lebanon-ground-invasion-rcna172913
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20241001-israel-invades-southern-lebanon/
Steve
Actually according to Windsor, Abbott said the only thing he wouldn’t do to become PM was sell his arse.
Importantly for Windsor and Oakeshot he wouldn’t agree to not call an early election.
Which Gillard would. That was instrumental in her getting their support.
For all her faults, perceived and otherwise, Gillard did quite a lot of good work.
I’d look forward to the generally pro-Palestinian Greens supporting the manically pro-Israel Dutton.
Teals can’t back Dutton because of “climate change”.
Ok, so they will deal with minority Albo, whose gov’t is approving mine after mine like there is no tomorrow.
The ALP are like heroin addicts with fossil fuel mining.
Give me more!
Okay so there is nothing to link to nadia88 being “treated like shit” on this site, just the fevered imaginings of the anti Labor hivemind.
Good to know. nadia88 is a good contributor. It would be a shame if Greens trolls chased her away from here.
Can’t wait to see Dutton go under in May. Gormless LOTO.
Teals will not deal with Dutton. They are not into his misogyny.
Teals will not deal with Dutton cos he gave the Voice the kiss of death.
Teals are funded by Climate 200. No way they’re backing Spud.
Vlad, I wouldn’t put it past Albanese to try and cobble together a minority government with the Teals, considering his pathological refusal to deal with the Greens. He’s exceedingly stubborn due to his belief that he’s ‘smarter than everyone else in the room’ but this would be incredibly stupid. It would be like herding cats. It would be like building a hospital in every Teal electorate. On the other hand, the Greens are an actual political party that have a clear agenda and are willing to negotiate and compromise.
Mavis
Yep! And I am actually pretty sure that The Greens and the Coalition will find plenty of things that they do agree upon. Anti ACTU, anti-development in leafy suburbs, anti-reform of the reserve bank, anti-taxation reform making multi-national corporations pay their share.
Also, hope you are well. Last week I was taking me old Ma to visit her equally old rellies a bit south of Brissie. As the Taxi went past Nerang, I lifted my imaginary glass of red in your direction.
One day, I hope to find the time to call in!
The Teals are good faith negotiators. Unlike Dutton and Bandy.
The most pathological refusal in Australian politics is the Greens refusal to compromise on any legislation even when their supporters want them to (e.g. the Governments housing bill).
The Teal party will want Wind Turbines on all beaches and along all tops of hills in their electorates and solar panels across all green space.
Eddy says:
Tuesday, October 1, 2024 at 8:47 pm
Vlad, I wouldn’t put it past Albanese to try and cobble together a minority government with the Teals, considering his pathological refusal to deal with the Greens. He’s exceedingly stubborn due to his belief that he’s ‘smarter than everyone else in the room’ but this would be incredibly stupid. It would be like herding cats. It would be like building a hospital in every Teal electorate. On the other hand, the Greens are an actual political party that have a clear agenda and are willing to negotiate and compromise.
_______
Just picking the latest post to calibrate Vlad’s idea of “humble and respectful” 🙂