The Australian yesterday published the quarterly Newspoll aggregates, which combine three months of polling to produce breakdowns by state and various demographic indicators with credible sample sizes. The state breakdowns record the Coalition leading 51-49 in New South Wales (unchanged on the previous quarter, for a swing to the Coalition of around 2.5% from the 2022 election); Labor leading 52-48 in Victoria (in from 54-46, a Coalition swing of around 3%); the Coalition leading 54-46 in Queensland (steady on both the last quarter and the last election); Labor leading 52-48 in Western Australia (steady, a Coalition swing of around 3%); and Labor leading 54-46 in South Australia (out from 53-47, no swing from 2022). The national two-party preferred through this period was 50-50, after Labor led 51-49 last quarter. The results combine four Newspoll surveys from July 15 to September 20 with an overall sample of 5035, ranging from 374 in South Australia to 1592 in New South Wales.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition leading 51-49 on respondent-allocated preferences, after they trailed 50.5-49.5 last week, but these seem unduly favourable to them: the primary votes are Labor 30% (down two), Coalition 38% (up half), Greens 13.5% (up one) and One Nation 4.5% (down half), and the pollster’s two-party measures based on 2022 election preferences have Labor leading 51.5-48.5, in from 52-48. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1668.
I think if Labor are returned as a minority govt Albo will try to avoid dealing with the Greens in the House of Reps if possible and just have some confidence and supply deal with the teals though its also possible they’ll need to negotiate with Greens and teals. Labor probably won’t have the same luxury in the Senate.
Confessions, Elmer Fudd said:
“I put Nadias dummy spit into an algebraic formula after Morgan was late. ANSWER: Get a life outside of election polling”
And I’m pretty sure Elmer Fudd is not a Green troll.
I can just see the Teals approving more fossil fuel mines for a minority labor gov’t. That will be the end of them of course.
The greens won’t allow this, so good luck labor dealing with the vacuous teals after the next election.
Getting diabolical isn’t it.
Labor sitting at 30% with morgan, or better we don’t discuss morgan.
What about newspoll. Labor on 31 %.
I suppose that feels better.
Greens may do a confidence deal with ‘minority labor’, but there won’t be any ‘rainbow coalition’ with the teals.
Labor has caused this. Labor can wear it.
I put Nadias dummy spit into an algebraic formula after Morgan was late. ANSWER: Get a life outside of election polling, especially junk polling like Morgan. Obviously Rexy boy didn’t get the memo either.”
Elmer Fudd (and we all know who that is ) last night
Sorry, didn’t see Eddy’s post
Thanks, Holden.
“Localised targeted raids” doesn’t sound like much of an invasion to me.
If the IDF aren’t prepared to invade with their best troops and take the inevitable casualties to destroy Hesbollah, then they’ve lost, imo.
In a potential ALP minority government, a deal with the greens is probably not necessary in the house as there would likely be enough independents for confidence and supply
Theu would still have to deal with the greens in the senate, and I doubt the teals would do the government any favours on procedural motions and the like, and there would be huge pressure on the government to act on integrity issues (properly this time), lobbying , and you’d think that a climate trigger would have to be on the cards as well. All of those things are towards the top.of the teal agenda
Rossmcg at 8.41 pm
When Adele Carles supported the Libs’ favoured delinquent (T. BUSWELL) she had to leave the Greens in order to do so.
As there is most unlikely to be a DD election, the comparison for Senate votes is 2019 not 2022.
Labor would have to be doing even worse to go backwards in the Senate. All legislation has to go through the Senate, so, as Gillard showed tactically, a hung HoR is far from terminal.
Oakeshott Country says:
Tuesday, October 1, 2024 at 8:53 pm
“I put Nadias dummy spit into an algebraic formula after Morgan was late. ANSWER: Get a life outside of election polling, especially junk polling like Morgan. Obviously Rexy boy didn’t get the memo either.”
Elmer Fudd (and we all know who that is ) last night
____
That isn’t nice. Although I, for one, don’t know who EF is.
“The Teal party will want Wind Turbines on all beaches and along all tops of hills in their electorates and solar panels across all green space.”
FUBAR the Trump of PB.
I would also like to take this moment to apologise to Nadia for a moment a few weeks ago where I lashed out at them when I was having something of a bad night. I’m not proud of that and I’ll try my best to not do that again.
Vlad says:
Tuesday, October 1, 2024 at 8:53 pm
I can just see the Teals approving more fossil fuel mines for a minority labor gov’t. That will be the end of them of course.
The greens won’t allow this, so good luck labor dealing with the vacuous teals after the next election.
Getting diabolical isn’t it.
Labor sitting at 30% with morgan, or better we don’t discuss morgan.
What about newspoll. Labor on 31 %.
I suppose that feels better.
Greens may do a confidence deal with ‘minority labor’, but there won’t be any ‘rainbow coalition’ with the teals.
Labor has caused this. Labor can wear it.
_________
Is this “humble and respectful” Vlad? Just calibrating 🙂
Actually this is the first I have seen of tension between Greens and Teals. Interesting.
The sesquipedalianism that borders on malapropism that gives it away
Griff and OC
Also, I do not know who EF is either. If someone can enlighten me , I would be very grateful.
Oakeshott Country says:
Tuesday, October 1, 2024 at 9:00 pm
The sesquipedalianism that borders on malapropism gives it away
_______
Well it cannot be he of “suppository of all wisdom” fame (one of my personal favourites) 🙂
I shall think on it.
Griff
“Shhh. Be vewy vewy quiet, I’m hunting wabbits”
Correct pageboi,
The teals have minimal representation in the senate.
It is diabolical for labor.
They can ram thru rubbish in the lower house with their teals, but then they have to deal with a greens controlled senate, where rubbish gets stopped!
OC
Clue for 7 Down
*What is the literal meaning of sesquipedalian?
1. : having many syllables : long. sesquipedalian terms. 2. : given to or characterized by the use of long words.
Eddy,
[On the other hand, the Greens are an actual political party that have a clear agenda and are willing to negotiate and compromise.]
I’ll let that do its own damage!
mj says:
Tuesday, October 1, 2024 at 8:52 pm
I think if Labor are returned as a minority govt Albo will try to avoid dealing with the Greens in the House of Reps if possible and just have some confidence and supply deal with the teals though its also possible they’ll need to negotiate with Greens and teals. Labor probably won’t have the same luxury in the Senate.
________
Agreed. It may come down to confidence in time, but to start with, functionally, the situation would likely play out similar to the past 12 months or so. Legislative impasse interrupted every now and then with minor activity.
Kirsdarke it was very very funny!
She is a big girl do not beat yourself up.
NSW Police has confirmed its commissioner will apply to the state’s Supreme Court to prohibit two upcoming protests in Sydney. Two protests organised by Palestine Action Group were planned for Sunday October 6 and Monday October 7. NSW Police have said the reasoning for their decision is based around safety for participants of the protest and the community.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-01/nsw-police-supreme-court-pro-palestine-protests/104419938
Vlad,
I think you should give the independents more credit. IMO they have been as solid as the greens on climate and integrity, and being relatively new don’t come off as shrill on some of these issues. They’ve also shown they’re not up for procedural shenanigans
Personally I think a lot of good could come from a teal BOP in the house, and the greens would have to tread carefully in the senate not to be seen as obstructionist if some decently progressive legislation came up from the house
PageBoi says:
Tuesday, October 1, 2024 at 9:15 pm
Vlad,
I think you should give the independents more credit. IMO they have been as solid as the greens on climate and integrity, and being relatively new don’t come off as shrill on some of these issues. They’ve also shown they’re not up for procedural shenanigans
Personally I think a lot of good could come from a teal BOP in the house, and the greens would have to tread carefully in the senate not to be seen as obstructionist if some decently progressive legislation came up from the house
_________
It has caused me to speculate with respect to this morning with a couple of posters expressing they once were Greens voters. I was one myself. Personally it was 2009 that changed matters from me. When I thought The Greens moved from being about the environment to being about them.
Anyway, the rise of the Teals is a result of the crumbling of Howard’s “broad church”. That said, they are not a threat to the Liberals, they are a result of the Liberals’ own actions. But are they a potential threat to The Greens? So long as they reside in different houses are they safe?
Kirsdarkesays:
Tuesday, October 1, 2024 at 8:58 pm
I would also like to take this moment to apologise to Nadia for a moment a few weeks ago where I lashed out at them when I was having something of a bad night. I’m not proud of that and I’ll try my best to not do that again.
========================================
I’m fairly sure she is a “she”, not a them Kirsdarke.
She made some comment yesterday about pulling a “machete out of her handbag” on the QLD thread, and last night, awaiting Morgan, she wanted to “throw a netball at Michelle Levine’s head”, presumably because the poll was late. Michelle Levine is one of the Directors at Roy Morgan going by their website.
Anyway, blokes don’t play netball, and most don’t wander around with a handbag, though of course some might. Actually reading some of her posts yesterday, she comes across as quite violent.
Anyway, apart from politics she is a great footy tipper too. Has got 17 out of 18 picks this final series in both AFL & NRL. I’m spewing I didn’t follow her AFL GF tip.
I think she’s tipping Penrith on Sunday,though I think she might be a Storm supporter.
Put me down too in the nadia88 camp. She’s great on this site, very fair (probably a bit to the Greens). To those who have dissed her – shove off to another site and take your misery with you.
I’ve also been pretty impressed with the teals and could be a best of both worlds balance to have teals hold the BOP in the House and Greens in the Senate. Labor may be more inclined to move on getting better environmental , social and integrity outcomes because it’s seen as more palatable to deal with the teals and they’re not really fighting on each others turf, at least not yet. The Greens may be more inclined to accept bills from the house where they’ve seen teal input, they seem to have welcomed the emergence of the teals given they champion many of the same issues though from a more centrist economic perspective.
“ Biden helped himself today and told Iran more or less not to act against Israel as they will be like Gaza is now back to a Stone Age ”
Pied Piper, I’m pretty sure that’s how America thought they could defeat Vietnam. Wars can’t be won without many boots on the ground and even then wars are not as easy to win as some posters here think.
As for Israel putting boots on the ground in Lebanon, it didn’t work for them so well in 2006. It ended because the UN negotiated a ceasefire. Hezbollah have been quite clear that they will stop firing missiles into northern Israel when the Gaza war ends. But Netanyahu wants total victory. So I only see never ending war.
“ Correct pageboi,
The teals have minimal representation in the senate.
It is diabolical for labor.
They can ram thru rubbish in the lower house with their teals, but then they have to deal with a greens controlled senate, where rubbish gets stopped!”
Vlad, you and I see it staring us in the face. But the Labor blind faithful are still trying to imagine moves to avoid the inevitable result of a disappointing Labor government led by an ineffectual cowardly whiny leader slipping further and further behind until the citizens actually start to contemplate a character like Dutton
being preferable.
Plus, I’m just going to repeat that dealing with Teals would be like herding cats and having to build a hospital in each of their electorates.
Plus, the Teals are just disaffected Liberals. In no world do they share traditional Labor values. Although with this Labor government that might not matter.
“ She is a big girl do not beat yourself up.”
Pied Piper, that is a sexist and demeaning comment. It also totally disregards her wellbeing, as she has previously taken a break from this place because of bullying.
The modern Labor party is mostly comprised of third way social liberals and the teals are green liberals so they’d probably work fine together. It’s been a long time since Labor was a democratic socialist party in reality though it still claims it is in its constitution:
Objectives
4. “The Australian Labor Party is a democratic socialist party and has the objective of the democratic socialisation of industry, production, distribution and exchange, to the extent necessary to eliminate exploitation and other anti-social features in these fields…”
https://www.alp.org.au/media/3572/alp-national-constitution-adopted-19-august-2023.pdf
Comparisons between the teals and Oakeshott/Windsor have some value. Despite representing traditional Nationals’seats O/W chose Labor expecting it to be a better government. Instead, thanks to the Ruddster, the government was a shambles.
As a resident of Port Macquarie at the time, I expected that Oakeshott would have survived if the government performed well. In the end he chose to not stand for reelection.
The Teals might choose Labor but their survival would then depend on the government’s performance. Choosing the Coalition, like Katter, would be a safer bet
Eddy,
Labor is heading to minority, and they know it.
They can play footsies with the teals, and keep ramming through the opening and extension of new coal and gas projects all the while pretending they are somehow pro environment.
We have a poster on this site who refers to Bandt as ‘bandit’ or ‘toolie’. This spam starts around 8 in the morning and stops around 8pm. In reality, we have mining projects quietly approved by our dear ‘environment minister’.
We have another spam poster who repeats regularly that labor is somehow heading to an increased majority despite their primary collapsing into the high 20’s.
We all know this is not the case. I think one of the right wingers finally told that poster to shut up.
The future for labor is dealing with the teals.
They created this mess, so they can wear it.
How the teals will justify this as disaffected liberals is beyond me.
I don’t trust the teals.
OG – Oakeshott and Windsor came from more decidedly conservative rural, anti-Labor electorates though. The teal seats are socially liberal, inner urban electorates that are moving demographically and politically in the opposite direction of the Liberal party so there seems less political risk for them siding with a centrist Labor party then for rural independents. I kind of see the teals as a modern day Liberal party version of the DLP.
Eddy says:
Tuesday, October 1, 2024 at 10:03 pm
That’s neither sexist nor demeaning.
Oakeshott.
They chose Gillard, not Rudd.
Remember Rob Oakeshott’s ‘long’ speech when he finally settled on Gillard over Abbott.
Jeez, I hope the Green political representatives approach negotiations with minority Labor government with a bit more maturity than their PB representatives. If the Senate Greens take the approach of the likes of Vlad and Eddy, I think we’ll see Labor cut more deals with the Libs than with the Greens. It might not lead to especially progressive outcomes, but at least they’ll be be able to get get things done.
Hugoaugogo, so calling people who don’t adhere to your political persuasion “immature” is your convincing election winning argument and your excuse for Labor cutting “more deals with the Libs than with the Greens.”
“ It might not lead to especially progressive outcomes, but at least they’ll be able to get things done.”
Ok, so forget about progressive outcomes. And Labor can just help the Liberals get their agenda “done” for them. Until Labor find themselves once more in opposition and the Liberals no longer need them.
Seriously, Rudd then Gillard then Rudd again and now Albanese and Labor supporters blame the Greens for their problems!
Vlad
We have another spam poster who repeats regularly that labor is somehow heading to an increased majority despite their primary collapsing into the high 20’s.
——————
Labor could get a majority if the swing against is in the right spots. If labor’s vote tanks in coalition seats and in its safe seats but not enough to lose seats and labor holds its marginals its possible they could stich together a majority but the most likely result will be a minority government.
Labor needs to actually negotiate with the Greens as well it’s not negotiating to be saying we’re the govt support our agenda unchallenged or else will call you and the LNP housing blockers for not passing designed to fail legislation. It’s super transparent politicking.
100% EV sales by 2025?
China goes gangbusters!
Solid State MG4!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqUuHQsfg7I
https://youtu.be/LsZfjF9SObo
“Jeez, I hope the Green political representatives approach negotiations with minority Labor government with a bit more maturity than their PB representatives.”
Unlikely.
I voted for Bob Brown’s environmental Greens once; there are none of those in the current party.
Instead, it seems to be a mix of n00b Greens (student politics), and envy Greens (wreckers.)
Pass.
Mexicanbeemer at 10.59 pm
That is what J.W. Howard did in 1998, win against the tide. Kim Beazley claimed he “just needed another week” to win. So Labor gave him another 5 or so years, in instalments, because there was no potential alternative better Labor leader (and indeed there wasn’t, as it turned out).
The difference from 1998 is that Howard campaigned then on a big new tax, more attractive as a proposition than nuclear power.
Dutton’s signature policy will ensure that the Teals will get back, and will support Labor.
Even James Campbell knows it.
‘Everything is dead’: Ukraine rushes to stem ecocide after river poisoning
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/01/ukraine-seim-river-poisoning-chernihiv-ecocide-
envy Greens (wreckers.)
———-
Maybe Labor can try “Green with envy” as the new attack line too bad “Greens political party” fell flat with the focus groups, never saw that coming.
It could be on soon:
https://www.news.com.au/world/middle-east/israel-ground-attack-due-as-soon-as-today/news-story/3494b87e720b2dc29f43bb3798bb091e
Yeah it’s on the brink of all out war Steve, very concerning.
mj
Its fucking awful. So many innocent lives will be lost. I dont know how the warmongers sleep at night.
Yep it’s awful. I hope some sense can be reached and all involved can back off from the cliff face they’re on.
Eddy.
[Seriously, Rudd then Gillard then Rudd again and now Albanese and Labor supporters blame the Greens for their problems!]
The Greens own their own problems and are “digging a bigger hole” by attempting to become the DSS Greens.
mjsays:
Wednesday, October 2, 2024 at 12:52 am
[Yep it’s awful. I hope some sense can be reached and all involved can back off from the cliff face they’re on.]
That comment pretty much sums up where the Greens have placed themselves
(Who famously said you only get one “Bob Brown’s Bus in your lifetime)
.
Peter Dutton’s birthday is on the 18th November and Liberals have ordered Green cake to celebrate Dutton’s success.
Dutton, in consideration of the Greens help, has ordered Muddies for the Greens.
“Whoopee” said Mr Dutton, the Carbon Tax again, unable to believe his luck.