The Australian yesterday published the quarterly Newspoll aggregates, which combine three months of polling to produce breakdowns by state and various demographic indicators with credible sample sizes. The state breakdowns record the Coalition leading 51-49 in New South Wales (unchanged on the previous quarter, for a swing to the Coalition of around 2.5% from the 2022 election); Labor leading 52-48 in Victoria (in from 54-46, a Coalition swing of around 3%); the Coalition leading 54-46 in Queensland (steady on both the last quarter and the last election); Labor leading 52-48 in Western Australia (steady, a Coalition swing of around 3%); and Labor leading 54-46 in South Australia (out from 53-47, no swing from 2022). The national two-party preferred through this period was 50-50, after Labor led 51-49 last quarter. The results combine four Newspoll surveys from July 15 to September 20 with an overall sample of 5035, ranging from 374 in South Australia to 1592 in New South Wales.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition leading 51-49 on respondent-allocated preferences, after they trailed 50.5-49.5 last week, but these seem unduly favourable to them: the primary votes are Labor 30% (down two), Coalition 38% (up half), Greens 13.5% (up one) and One Nation 4.5% (down half), and the pollster’s two-party measures based on 2022 election preferences have Labor leading 51.5-48.5, in from 52-48. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1668.
Yep.
Labor needs to take the advice of Allegra Spender and establish a major independent tax review.
UK Cartoons and other miscellany
Morten Morland #Toryleadership
Patrick Blower
Matt
Martin Rowson
Banx
Jonsey
#ParisFashionWeek
Tjeerd Royaards
Bad Parenting
Mike Seddon
Twonks
==========================================
Stolen from the internet
Rex
“The Vic Libs party room seems like a snake pit.
They are unelectable.”
—————————-
Something Labor and Greens can hopefully agree on.
The SA Liberals are headed in the same direction, with a fundamentalist christian faction now controlling the party admin structures. A Liberal upper house member recently proposed an anti-abortion law! We criticise fundamentalist Muslims imposing religious beliefs on secular society. I see no reason to regard fundamentalist Christians any better.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/laws-banning-lateterm-pregnancy-terminations-to-be-put-to-south-australian-parliament/news-story/da4205c41dabba17f3ccba6874d565fe
Rex – Re a tax review, I agree that would be both good politics and good policy. There are many things that need to be adjusted with our tax system, and I think government allowing an arms length independent review might allow government (of either stripe) the room to make some changes.
Well, if Albo keeps legitimising Dutton by doing deals with them, why wouldn’t the MSM platform him.
Hey FUBAR, how about you do something about ASIO or the AFP, or the Defence Force?
No? Well then you are a coward won’t get any sympathy if you become a casualty of war.
See how stupid this argument is? 99 percent of people don’t want to fight, they just want to get on with their lives in peace and safety. It’s why bravery is rare and courage a virtue, I doubt you possess either.
Albo should be condemning, sanctioning and distancing Aus from all of Hamas, Hezbollah and the Netanyahu Govt.
A culture of living in the rear view mirror will never bring peace to the region.
“World War 3 fears as Iran attack could see Israel retaliate against their nuclear programme”
Headlines in UK newspapers.
Wong is busy telling people to come back to their so called home never mentions that Hamas should release the hostages.
Labors failure is all in on Muslim terrorist states and dictatorships,like her and fed labors gov approach to China.
Sell out human rights and try to win votes of people who will vote for the Muslim party and Payman anyway. Loses mainstream voters in the process.
Own goal.
Douglas and Milko:
Tuesday, October 1, 2024 at 8:50 pm
[‘Mavis
Also, hope you are well. Last week I was taking me old Ma to visit her equally old rellies a bit south of Brissie. As the Taxi went past Nerang, I lifted my imaginary glass of red in your direction.
One day, I hope to find the time to call in!’]
And cheers to you, D & M. Given all the circumstances, I’m okay, as I trust you are. Feel free to call in & I’ll take you to the Hinze Dam for a coffee. I only caught your post as I was concerned that nadia was allegedly being piled on again but couldn’t see it at least on this thread.
Down with Hamas, down with Hezbollah, down with Likud and down with Smotrich and Ben Gvir.
So after Hamas brought Israel to the international brink by provoking then into a disproportionate response to the October 7 attacks and through deliberately using the civilian population of Gaza as sacrifices (still Israel’s fault for doing it, but you have to be very naive to think Hamas wasn’t seeking exactly that outcome), Iran has managed to bail out Netanyahu and ensured nobody can withdraw support from Israel without looking like the country involved is backing Iran. What fucking morons the Iranians are. The Hamas leadership must be ropeable at how shit Hezbollah and Iran have been (and I can bear their dismay with enormous fortitude of course).
Story reads as if arrest arose from failure to assist which is not a reason to arrest
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/02/hezbollah-flag-sydney-protest-arrest-israel-lebanon-attack-ntwnfb
The Teals will not repeat the mistakes of Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/the-five-crossbench-mps-who-could-make-peter-dutton-pm-20240926-p5kdtb
RNC Research
Joe just said this. Vid is on X.
I think bean is learning something that the Greens are in denial about.
Half of all wars are started by the other side.
Ten years full-time service, 3 years part time and another decade on a recall list. I wake up every morning knowing I have served my country and continue to pay for it.
And you?
@Bean “We are killing your relatives overseas and destroying their homes, but you’re responsible for undermining social cohesion.”
We Australia aren’t killing anybody and nor do we have the slightest influence on the conflicts in the Middle East – even the US has struggled to do that – but people like you trying to blame Australia anyway are indeed responsible for undermining social cohesion.
Why are we having arson attacks on politician offices over a war we have nothing to do with, can do nothing about, and have repeatedly called for a ceasefire in for what good it will do? Because for domestic political reasons, some people are encouraging hatreds over here about events over there to spill over.
Talking about the Greens servicing the Islamic community – what policies do the Greens have in common with observant Muslims, exactly, except shared hatred of Israel? That’s not the Greens taking an interest in helping the Muslim community, that’s just having a common enemy.
The strikes are a big issue in the US and not hearing the word “Yemen” it would be natural to think they were asking about the strikes. Don’t think failing to hear one word at a press conference even makes the top 50 Biden gaffes.
Arky says:
Wednesday, October 2, 2024 at 1:06 pm
It was typical, though.
@shellbell – “Story reads as if arrest arose from failure to assist which is not a reason to arrest
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/02/hezbollah-flag-sydney-protest-arrest-israel-lebanon-attack-ntwnfb”
I don’t think it reads that way; I do think the writer hasn’t been clear about the cause of the arrest but that’s probably just the writer being a bit crap. There’s very few good crime and legal reporters in Australia. I tend to think that if the arrest was for a non crime, a Guardian story would be hammering that angle.
Rex Douglassays:
Wednesday, October 2, 2024 at 11:49 am
Boerwarsays:
Wednesday, October 2, 2024 at 11:13 am
The majority of Australians want a tax system that works for them.
Yep.
Labor needs to take the advice of Allegra Spender and establish a major independent tax review.
________________________
We had one more than a decade ago and it went nowhere. If the cross bench is not willing to put hand on heart and adopt every recommendation, then it is a waste of time.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-02/brisbane-lions-coach-chris-fagan-takes-cup-for-a-walk/104420988
No one is prepared to do full on tax reform. I dont know why the media keep talking about it when tax subjects come up. Who are the winners, who are the losers. Whinge, moan, whinge,moan.
Australia’s biggest coal generator AGL Energy has reported success with a ground breaking initiative that will allow it to shut down coal units in the middle of the day, effectively making way for rooftop and large scale solar to dominate the grid.
In effect, the trial confirms the end of the “base-load” construct that has been developed by the coal and nuclear industries.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/coal-generators-are-learning-how-to-shut-down-for-solar-in-significant-boost-to-renewable-switch/
Even the UK has ditched coal for good. Conservative govts for years too.
I cannot read the AFR article posted above, but from Kevin Bonham
The five independents who could make Peter Dutton PM
Agreed Steve. Tax reform has become one of those words that have lot meaning. Adjustments to tax rates don’t amount to reform, nor does scrapping a tax concession. If real tax reform came around, the media would be the first line of defence against it.
thanks D&M
That smacks of the AFR just making stuff up or at best wildly speculating, Katter and Dai Le I can see supporting Dutton, But sharkie, Spender and Haines would be pretty long odds you’d think……
it’s a shame that the google trick and beyondpaywall no longer work for the AFR (although I’ll get over it!)
Israel will now try to destroy Iran’s capacity to add nuclear warheads to its missiles.
They are like the Greens. They will do whatever suits them. Bandt regularly teams up with Dutton now.
Perhaps we need a moratorium on the ME war …?
D&M,
If the Coalition can get within 5 seats of a majority (71) that would mean a gain of 13 seats relative to the last election (ignoring by-elections). If all those gains were at Labor’s expense, that would push labor down to 64.
Under that scenario, the crossbench would almost certainly support the Coalition on the basis that they clearly have the most seats. Even if a couple of the gains were at the expense of the Teals, the same would apply.
So I don’t think that Financial Review article is particularly insightful.
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, October 2, 2024 at 2:45 pm
You might be right but I don’t think that they will.
I think if that was a priority then they would have done it last time. They appear to have very good intelligence on the program.
I suspect they’ll hit an IRGC target.
Excellent news from Victoria, where tax increases on investments have seen property prices fall.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-02/sa-home-prices-up-as-victorian-investors-seek-to-avoid-tax/104417640
Let’s hope the state government can hold its nerve under severe pressure from the Real Estate Institute.
This is interesting. Rebekha Sharkie says “I believe my community would expect me to have a conversation with the Liberal Party first” (re forming government).Labor won the 2PP in Mayo in 2022 for the first time.
Sure, then she’ll hop into bed with Labor.
What do they expect her to say?
“Yeah, I’m going with Labor, no wukkas”
Any of them say that, they’ve already lost the seat.
Katter’s old man’s Wiki entry says he “lived and died a Labor man”
Katter Jr is similar, he’ll never support Dutts.
This is just a ploy to save their seats, internal Polling must be dire.
Campaigners argue court action to block Sydney protests ‘oppressive’ but PM says event on anniversary of 7 October attacks on Israel would be ‘incredibly provocative’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/02/sydney-pro-palestine-rally-police-ban-push-october-7
_________________________________
Certainly. Obviously protests, and protest movements shouldn’t be ‘provocative’. They should be humble and demure. Mayhap our toddler in chief could take his own notes and rein in his and his colleagues QT behaviour.
If you switched your vote to teal from liberal now you realise that the only way to get the tax cuts labor largely took away from you is to vote liberal not teal.
Another labor own goal.
Support for changing or canning S3 was quite popular, even among high income earners. What’s to suggest that a still large tax cut that is less large than the one that they never got is going to be a big issue for teal voters?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/02/hezbollah-flag-sydney-protest-arrest-israel-lebanon-attack-ntwnfb?utm_term=66fcddb32e94d5bfaf5a5eeb257a2ffe&utm_campaign=BreakingNewsAustralia&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=breakingnewsaustralia_email
“Police said the woman had been granted strict conditional bail to appear before the Downing Centre local court on Wednesday 23 October 2024.”
Given up having a drink for every time a police media unit uses “strict conditional bail”
There are currently 16 MPs on the crossbench, one of whom, Kylie Tink, is having her seat abolished.
Here’s my take on where each would stand in the scenario of a hung parliament, assuming that the two majors ended up with seat counts in the high 60s, and thus both had a chance to form a minority government.
Kate Cheney (Curtin, WA; 1.26%) – given the seat and the margin, we can probably assume she’d go Liberal. Said to be the most at-risk Teal, though I haven’t seen any polling on this.
Dai Le (Fowler, NSW; 1.63%) – a Labor-leaning seat, but Le is a former Liberal member. Hard to say which way she’d go, and given the narrow margin, the seat might yet revert to Labor anyway. Suspect that she’d back Labor on Confidence and Supply, but no sure thing.
Sophie Scamps (Mackellar, NSW; 2.50%) – Teal seat, no love lost with Dutton, but traditional Liberal seat. Probably Liberal.
Zoe Daniel (Goldstein, VIC; 2.87%) – More Left-leaning Teal in a Left-leaning State. Probably Labor.
Kylie Tink (North Sydney, NSW; 2.91%) – Seat abolished.
Monique Ryan (Kooyong, VIC; 2.94%) – Another Left-leaning Teal in a Left-leaning State. Probably Labor.
Allegra Spender (Wentworth, NSW; 4.19%) – From a Liberal grandee family in a traditional Liberal seat. Safe margin. Probably Liberal.
Helen Haines (Indi, VIC; 9.08%) – Relatively conservative rural seat, but huge margin. Probably Liberal.
Zali Steggals (Warringah, NSW; 10.92%) – Very safely ensconced, and so likely to go with the safer option at the time. I’d guess Labor, but that will depend on the final numbers.
Rebeckha Sharkie (Mayo, SA; 12.27%) – Well-entrenched independent in an otherwise conservative seat. Has already indicated she’d go Liberal in the first instance.
Bob Katter (Kennedy, QLD; 13.10%) – Another well-entrenched independent who will likely avoid taking a position, but if push came to shove will go with the Queenslander.
Andrew Wilkie (Clark, TAS; 20.82%) – Inclination, history and seat demographics would strongly suggest Labor.
The four Greens will almost certainly act as a bloc, assuming that they are all re-elected (Bandt certainly will be, but the other three are the beneficiaries of a three-way marginal, a scenario which relies on Labor coming third; it only takes a few hundred votes to flip that around). Impossible to see them backing anyone but Labor, notwithstanding the current bad blood. Green voters don’t vote that way to get Peter Dutton as Prime Minister.
So that gives us something like 9 Labor and 6 Coalition, and presumably some of the fence-sitters could switch depending the most likely path to stable government. In any event, I really can’t see how the Coalition is going to win nearly enough seats to get into any minority government conversation, barring a collapse of the Labor vote. Current polling suggests Labor might lose around 4-5 seats, which would see a Parliament look something like Labor 73, Coalition 62, crossbench 15. There’s only one party well-positioned to form a minority government, and it ain’t the one led by Peter Dutton.
Pretty stupid and idiotic of people living here to be waving the flag of a designated terrorist organisation.
Hezbollah were formed as a response to Israel blowing the shit out of southern Beirut in the siege of the 1982 war that Israel waged against the PLO. That war ended when Reagan stopped arms shipments to Israel ( it’s a pity that Biden has less ethics than Reagan, or even Thatcher). But, nethertheless, Israel gave birth to Hezbollah as sure as the blues gave birth to rock and roll.
I digress.
Hezbollah and Israel have been at war ever since. Israel and America and America’s sycophantic allies have declared Hezbollah a terrorist group, but Lebanese Shia people have the right to think differently.
Hassan Nasrallah was not just the leader of Hezbollah, he was a spiritual leader for the Shia Lebanese.
If Lebanese Australian citizens want to march with posters of him to commemorate his assassination, they should be allowed.
William will probably cut this post. If he doesn’t, I quiver in anticipation at the vitriol that I will be subjected to.
The Greens running the lines on an organization that killed 83 French peacekeepers and which wants to push the jews into the sea. There is nothing like the ME to fry the brains.
All the Indies are open to a deal. It is why they exist. They will go with the best deal they can get.
“ Investment property owners are selling up in Victoria to avoid increased taxes and buying in South Australia instead, according to real estate agents.
And its believed to be inflating housing prices in SA”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-02/sa-home-prices-up-as-victorian-investors-seek-to-avoid-tax/104417640
Please fuck off to somewhere else.
“ Investment property owners are selling up in Victoria to avoid increased taxes”
And that is why Albo should go nowhere near negative gearing.
“Hezbollah were formed as a response to Israel blowing the shit out of southern Beirut in the siege of the 1982 war that Israel waged against the PLO. That war ended when Reagan stopped arms shipments to Israel ( it’s a pity that Biden has less ethics than Reagan, or even Thatcher). But, nethertheless, Israel gave birth to Hezbollah as sure as the blues gave birth to rock and roll.
I digress.
Hezbollah and Israel have been at war ever since. Israel and America and America’s sycophantic allies have declared Hezbollah a terrorist group, but Lebanese Shia people have the right to think differently.
Hassan Nasrallah was not just the leader of Hezbollah, he was a spiritual leader for the Shia Lebanese.
If Lebanese Australian citizens want to march with posters of him to commemorate his assassination, they should be allowed.
William will probably cut this post. If he doesn’t, I quiver in anticipation at the vitriol that I will be subjected to.”
Nobody is interested in knowing how much you get off on your idiocies being called out.
I guess when Hezbollah assassinated the elected President of Lebanon that was just spiritual leadership. When they shut down Lebanese parliament when it wouldn’t do their bidding…. When Nasrallah helped the Assads massacre Sunnis in Syria… when they massacred political opponents in Beirut itself… when they launched terrorist attacks against Jewish civilians not just in Israel but elsewhere in the world such as Argentina…
I’m not surprised you respect that, given your earlier endorsement of violence against those you politically disagree with, but let’s make no bones about the sort of person and group you are endorsing here.
The fiction at the heart of negative gearing.
“Koch had zeroed in on the fiction at the heart of negative gearing: that the landlord had bought and rented out a property to earn income, but had failed, perhaps temporarily or perhaps for a very long time. As a result, they needed to be compensated for losses incurred in the pursuit of an income.”
“It’s an argument we’ve grown used to hearing in Australia. Overseas? Forget it.”
“Landlords aren’t compensated in the same way in the United Kingdom or the United States.”
“In both those countries, landlords are allowed to lose money – no crime in that. But they are not allowed to offset those losses against their wages to pay less tax (although they are able to offset them against income from other investments).”
“In Canada, landlords can try it on. But the bar is higher: there, they need to be able to demonstrate an “intention to make a profit” – something that would be beyond many Australian negative gearers.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-02/negative-gearing-what-will-albanese-and-chalmers-do/104419190
S. Simpsonsays:
Wednesday, October 2, 2024 at 12:49 pm
The Teals will not repeat the mistakes of Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/the-five-crossbench-mps-who-could-make-peter-dutton-pm-20240926-p5kdtb
=====================================================================
You mean that commitment….. “I will sell anything but my arse”
They got it very right.