With thirteen days to go in both cases, this site now offers a guide to the Australian Capital Territory election, and individual guides to the by-elections for the Liberal-held state seats of Epping, Hornsby and Pittwater in northern Sydney. The former finds Labor, which governs in coalition with the Greens, seeking a seventh successive victory and an extension on its 23 years in office, in circumstances that are seemingly more promising for the Liberals than those that prevailed when it suffered a dismal result in 2020. Labor has forfeited each of the New South Wales by-elections, but that in Pittwater is of considerable interest in offering a second chance for teal independent Jacqui Scruby, who came within 0.7% of winning the seat at the state election in March 2023.
I thought Labor might have contested the Epping byelection at least, as their candidate took a fair amount out of Perrottet’s margin in the 2023 state election. Obviously NSW Labor head office wants to save their money and resources for the federal election next year.
William, it’s Amon, not Amos.
William, thank you for the very informative guides.
I would have thought the Teals would have had a crack in the NSW by elections.
Thanks Desie, fixed.
Thanks, William.
Poll-less psephing…
Any chance we get a poll ?.
Nt Election no poll now looks like ACT no poll.
There have been relatively few published ACT polls over the years and nothing since the 2020 election so far as I know. Perhaps one poll will emerge before election day on the 19th although pre-poll starts tomorrow.
Perhaps polling outfits don’t see much point since the ACT Liberals have been in continuous opposition for the past 23 years. In fact they themselves have many roadside corflutes proclaiming “23 Years is Long Enough”. They’re hoping for an “It’s Time” response I suppose but with the existing Assembly at Labor 10, Liberal 9 and Greens 6 it’s a big ask.
citizen
My running informal poll tells me that there is an ‘Its Time’ feeling among Labor supporters. Whether the alternatives are attractive enough for Labor voters to switch remains to be seen.
I believe that Rattenbury’s desire to be the next Chief Minister is falling on deaf ears.
Lee is generally well-regarded.
The Greens in several electorates are on thin margins so can’t afford much erosion of support.
Labor generally has thicker margins.
Of the Indies, Emerson looks to be the likeliest but he would, IMO require the support from the sort of tactical voters who got Pocock over the line. I don’t get that sort of vibe either.
The sheer number of Indies has, IMO, resulted in too much ‘choice’ and not enough certainty.
Boerwarsays:
Monday, October 7, 2024 at 8:43 pm
citizen
[My running informal poll tells me that there is an ‘Its Time’ feeling among Labor supporters.]
The only interest for the majority of voters is the sheer number of corflutes on the roadsides, the frequency with which they are not randomly torn down, how quickly they are replaced and where these corflutes “go to die”.
Rattenbury is ensconced in relatively secured sinecure for a Green’s leader and won’t rock the boat.
Barr will step aside during the next term while the bitter infighting Liberals will maintain their “maybe next time” flavour despite the 23years.
The independents and Greens results are a little more interesting under the Hare Clark system.
Boerwar spends too much time on PB to know what’s happening on the ground.
Status quo is the most likely.
I’m pretty sure Bill Stefaniak was never ACT chief minister.
“Corio says:
Tuesday, October 8, 2024 at 10:37 am
I’m pretty sure Bill Stefaniak was never ACT chief minister.”
Never Chief Minister but I think he was Attorney-General in the Carnell government around 2000.
I would be pretty surprised if the Libs improved their position much.
I don’t disagree there’s an ‘It’s Time’ mood, even among us who are supportive of Labor. The problem is there really isn’t much of an alternative.
Yes, Elizabeth Lee is pretty well liked, the rest of her team are a bunch of OutRight weirdos. The “independents” not the others which are vote funnels for the Libs are just not consistent in their positions – which does matter in Canberra. Plus, whatever people think of Barr, the idea of the self-appointed leader of a movement of Independents saying they’d support Labor, but not with Barr as leader, was pure amateur hour.
The Greens seemingly have peaked, so I wouldn’t be shocked if they drop a seat or two.
My expectation is Labor will form the next government, but mostly due to a lack of better options. The Libs need to seriously sit down and figure out who the hell they are and what they stand for. They’ve certainly pivoted toward the middle in their rhetoric, but many of their candidates and electeds are fringe-dwellers. Fix that, they might have a chance in 2028 – also, I expect Barr will stand down in 2026, so there will be a new Labor leader/CM… whoever that might be.
Emerson does the old magic pudding:
https://citynews.com.au/2024/emersons-independents-will-stay-on-the-crossbench/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_source_platform=mailpoet&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801
‘goll says:
Tuesday, October 8, 2024 at 5:33 am
Boerwarsays:
Monday, October 7, 2024 at 8:43 pm
citizen
[My running informal poll tells me that there is an ‘Its Time’ feeling among Labor supporters.]
The only interest for the majority of voters is the sheer number of corflutes on the roadsides, the frequency with which they are not randomly torn down, how quickly they are replaced and where these corflutes “go to die”.
Rattenbury is ensconced in relatively secured sinecure for a Green’s leader and won’t rock the boat.
Barr will step aside during the next term while the bitter infighting Liberals will maintain their “maybe next time” flavour despite the 23years.
The independents and Greens results are a little more interesting under the Hare Clark system.
Boerwar spends too much time on PB to know what’s happening on the ground.
Status quo is the most likely.’
==================
My only claim is to have polled around 60 people, most of who are aged Rusties.
I expected ‘Meh’ but got a reasonably consistent response that we needed a change of government but that none of the alternatives are all that appealing.
‘jt1983 says:
Tuesday, October 8, 2024 at 3:18 pm
…’
————-
I reckon this post has the overview about right.
I don’t get much of a sense that the Belco Party is firing on all six cylinders.
Thought I’d corrected that. Have now. Thanks.