Weekend miscellany: Fowler preselection, SECNewgate survey, SA by-election news (open thread)

Labor seeks amends from the voters of Fowler, a poll finds softening enthusiasm for the renewable energy transition, plus the fall and fall of former SA Liberal leader David Speirs.

There may be a Resolve Strategic federal poll through later today, but in case there’s not, a new open thread is order despite there not being much new to relate:

• Labor has chosen Tu Le, whose preselection bid in 2022 was scotched when the national executive imposed Kristina Keneally, as its candidate to recover the western Sydney seat of Fowler from independent Dai Le. Tu Le is a lawyer and daughter of Vietnamese refugees, and the decision to cast her aside to accommodate Keneally’s move from the Senate, where she had failed to secure a competitive position on the party ticket, was evidently received poorly by voters in an electorate that encompasses the Vietnamese community hub of Cabramatta. Dai Le defeated Keneally at the election by 1.6% after preferences, after trailing by 36.1% to 29.5% on the primary vote.

• SECNewgate’s semi-regular Mood of the Nation survey finds positivity towards the transition to renewables at its lowest level since the Albanese government came to power, at 47% positive and 26% negative; Labor favoured by 30% on managing the cost of living, steady from July, with the Coalition up two to 29%; 58% favouring Kamala Harris over 22% for Donald Trump; and a downward trajectory for the perceived performance of the Western Australian state government.

• A South Australian state by-election looms in the highly marginal Liberal-held seat of Black after former party leader resigned from parliament yesterday after being charged on two counts of supplying a controlled substance. Police allege the offence took place “between August 2 and 3 and on August 9”, the latter date being a day after he stepped aside as party leader. On September 9, The Advertiser revealed a video, seemingly filmed in the small hours of June 30, appearing to show Speirs snorting a line of white powder in what appeared to be his home. Speirs claimed the video was a deepfake, but The Advertiser published advice from experts who believed otherwise. The police were seemingly likewise unconvinced, having raided Speirs’ house and arrested him on September 26. The last by-election in the state, on March 23, resulted in Labor gaining former Liberal Premier Steven Marshall of Dunstan, overturning a 0.5% margin with a 1.4% swing.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

420 comments on “Weekend miscellany: Fowler preselection, SECNewgate survey, SA by-election news (open thread)”

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  1. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, October 7, 2024 at 12:04 pm
    dave makes a great point about the hysteria from the Islamophobic narrow minded re muslim attire

    Which is? He doesn’t like the male body? He doesn’t watch Olympic Swimming? He’s a board shorts guy? (as am I these days). He doesn’t have a gold chain to wear with his speedos?

  2. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, October 7, 2024 at 12:06 pm
    Meanwhile, the Vic Libs are desperately trying to steal defeat from the jaws of victory. Unbelievable.

    Remind me – when is the next election?

  3. Meanwhile, the Vic Libs are desperately trying to steal defeat from the jaws of victory. Unbelievable.
    It is hard to believe.
    The reality appears to be Deeming is just one of many white ants in the building.

  4. Its getting ugly…..

    Phillip Coorey
    Political editor
    Oct 7, 2024 – 11.54am

    Rebel Senator Fatima Payman should hand back her seat to Labor and contest the next election along with the other candidates from her new party, Anthony Albanese says.

    With the West Australian senator planning to announce her new party this week, the prime minister told The Australian Financial Review she should use it as an opportunity to test her own popularity as well.

  5. Taylormade @ #226 Monday, October 7th, 2024 – 9:52 am

    Deep down you know he is correct on Wong.
    She just didn’t have the guts to speak up.

    You, TailoredMerde, don’t have the faintest idea of what the words ‘deep down’ mean.

    Superficial, insincere, knee-jerk reaction is your ‘forte’, interspersed with pre-digested repetition.

  6. pied pipersays:
    Monday, October 7, 2024 at 12:27 pm
    Its getting ugly…..

    Phillip Coorey
    Political editor
    Oct 7, 2024 – 11.54am

    Rebel Senator Fatima Payman should hand back her seat to Labor and contest the next election along with the other candidates from her new party, Anthony Albanese says.

    With the West Australian senator planning to announce her new party this week, the prime minister told The Australian Financial Review she should use it as an opportunity to test her own popularity as well.

    Aww, Albo runs off to his mate Phil to attack the woman he actually expelled from the party room.

    Pathetic.

  7. Oakeshott Country says:
    Monday, October 7, 2024 at 12:18 pm

    Do you see many?

    I have to agree – those blokes are terribly repressed. Remember the last one that was beaten to death for not wearing his? Shocking.

  8. I don’t see many these days as they’ve mostly died off due to gout, alcoholism or apoplexy when the Pope was invited to England.
    But when I do see one, I immediately know what sort of person they are, just like i know what sort of person a woman in a hijab is.

  9. Eureka Centre Ballarat
    On this Day 7 October 1854
    As the morning grows late, news of the murder of James Scobie is circulating the diggings. Scobie, a Scottish miner, has been killed in the early hours of the morning as he attempts to enter the Eureka Hotel. Apparently, the publican Bentley has bludgeoned him to death! The inquest to be held this afternoon. Surely, those responsible will be brought to justice.

  10. Oakeshott Country @ #256 Monday, October 7th, 2024 – 12:18 pm

    I am offended by the aprons worn by Masons – they should be banned

    When did Masons start wearing them in public and their patriarchs of the Mason ‘faith’ force them to do it even if they didn’t want to? Or do you believe every woman wearing a hijab is okay with it?

    Does your wife still wear a mantilla in church on Sunday? To be consistent with your hypothesis. 😐

  11. Oakeshott Country says Monday, October 7, 2024 at 12:52 pm

    I don’t see many these days as they’ve mostly died off due to gout, alcoholism or apoplexy when the Pope was invited to England.

    The only Freemason I knew of when I was young was ironically a Catholic.

  12. [‘In the leadup to the last federal election calls for a federal ICAC, similar to the NSW Independent Commission Against Corruption, were stronger than ever, and the Albanese government promised to deliver an anticorruption watchdog that would undertake fearless investigations into wrongdoing within the Australian Public Service, in terms of politicians and bureaucrats.

    And federal Labor delivered on this last year, when the National Anti-Corruption Commission began operating on 1 July. And despite heavy criticism that erupted when then Coalition attorney general Christian Porter proposed an integrity commission with closed door hearings for the APS, while law enforcement officials would be heard publicly in late 2022, most NACC proceedings are closed door.

    The NACC released its figures to date on 18 September, which reveal that the body is currently conducting 32 preliminary hearings, 28 corruption investigations, it’s monitoring 18 inquiries by other agencies, has six matters before the courts and has 480 referrals pending.

    The note, however, neglects to mention that the new federal watchdog is currently under investigation for corruption.

    Indeed, the new commission was under inquiry for corruption prior to its one year anniversary, as the Inspector of the National Anti-Corruption Commission (INACC) Gail Furness SC had received over 900 hundred complaints in the week following the 6 June NACC decision not to investigate Robodebt, and, as so many complaints alleged “corrupt conduct or maladministration”, she’d decided to inquire.

    The official NACC Robodebt scheme inquiry was the key investigation the nation had presumed a body like the NACC was established to pursue. And as it made the decision not to do this, after the Royal Commission into Robodebt had provided it with a sealed section of its report naming six public officials warranting further investigation, it appears something fishy is going on at the opaque NACC.’]

    https://www.sydneycriminallawyers.com.au/blog/the-opaque-national-anti-corruption-commission-has-become-a-bastion-for-government-coverup/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=week-41

    [“The Inspector is conducting an investigation under section 184(1)(e) of the National Anti-Corruption Commission Act 2022 into the decision by the National Anti-Corruption Commission not to investigate the referrals from the robodebt royal commission.”26 Sept 2024.]

    That was a shocker of a decision; those adversely affected by it deserve better. And although Brereton didn’t make the decision, there’s a perception of at least apprehended bias on his part due to his Army Reserve connections. He should, therefore, consider his position as the head of the NACC.

  13. Thinking Australians have rejected both sides of this conflict…
    Albo judged the public mood precisely for this mess
    that’s one in the eye for the integrity’s and foodbars 😡

    “Voters reject protests as war ignites domestic row
    A majority of voters have rejected public protests in support of either side in the war in the Middle East.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voters-reject-protests-as-gaza-war-ignites-domestic-row-20241004-p5kfxr.html

  14. The demented glow-in-the-dark radioactive dud thug spud’s cheering on Israel is as poorly judged
    as the greens under stunt bundt and max-mather-hyphen cheering on the hamas and hezbollah flag
    wavers 😡

  15. FUBAR says:
    Monday, October 7, 2024 at 12:13 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, October 7, 2024 at 12:04 pm
    dave makes a great point about the hysteria from the Islamophobic narrow minded re muslim attire

    Which is? He doesn’t like the male body? He doesn’t watch Olympic Swimming? He’s a board shorts guy? (as am I these days). He doesn’t have a gold chain to wear with his speedos?
    ___________________________
    FUBAR you must be a big fan of the meat and 2 veg being highly visible out in the community but I am not.

    It is essentially the same as men walking around in underpants. Another horrific sight.

  16. But there is no doubt that Speedos are far more objectionable than the Hijab or the Burqa.

    And I am determined that if any article of clothing need be banned it is the Speedos.

    If only for the sake of the children.

  17. dave @ #273 Monday, October 7th, 2024 – 1:43 pm

    FUBAR says:
    Monday, October 7, 2024 at 12:13 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, October 7, 2024 at 12:04 pm
    dave makes a great point about the hysteria from the Islamophobic narrow minded re muslim attire

    Which is? He doesn’t like the male body? He doesn’t watch Olympic Swimming? He’s a board shorts guy? (as am I these days). He doesn’t have a gold chain to wear with his speedos?
    ___________________________
    FUBAR you must be a big fan of the meat and 2 veg being highly visible out in the community but I am not.

    It is essentially the same as men walking around in underpants. Another horrific sight.

    Interesting – do you have any objections to female beach attire, which this year appears to be a piece of dental floss?
    (0f course you immediately know what the women who were this are)

  18. Mavis says Monday, October 7, 2024 at 1:20 pm

    That was a shocker of a decision; those adversely affected by it deserve better. And although Brereton didn’t make the decision, there’s a perception of at least apprehended bias on his part due to his Army Reserve connections. He should, therefore, consider his position as the head of the NACC.

    I am not a lawyer, but I still don’t understand why the NACC would need to investigate Robodebt? I don’t recall hearing any mention of corrupt conduct being mentioned during the Royal Commission. Given the NACC is basically a standing RC, what else could it do?

  19. Oakeshott Country says:

    Interesting – do you have any objections to female beach attire, which this year appears to be a piece of dental floss?
    (0f course you immediately know what the women who were this are)
    _________
    Absolutely none. Let a thousand blossoms bloom in that regard.

    I am only interested in keeping male genitalia off the streets.

  20. Diogenes:

    Monday, October 7, 2024 at 1:27 pm

    [‘Mavis

    Corruption commission seem to be the most corrupt and inept vehicles for seeing justice done.’]

    Agree. The instant Act should be amended to make all hearings open to the public, just like a criminal proceeding.
    If a party is found not to have acted corruptly, a statement
    to that effect issued by the NACC should suffice. Granted, mud may stick, but no more than when an alleged criminal is found not guilty – a fairly rare occurrence, standing at 3%.

    https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/crime-and-justice/criminal-courts-australia/latest-release

  21. dave @ #278 Monday, October 7th, 2024 – 1:55 pm

    Oakeshott Country says:

    Interesting – do you have any objections to female beach attire, which this year appears to be a piece of dental floss?
    (0f course you immediately know what the women who were this are)
    _________
    Absolutely none. Let a thousand blossoms bloom in that regard.

    I am only interested in keeping male genitalia off the streets.

    I appreciate that you don’t appreciate NRL but at this time of year I am sure you would find a supporter in the great Rex Mossop who, when objecting to people passing his house on the way to a nudist beach, told the press “I am sick of having male genitalia thrust down my throat”.

  22. I appreciate that you don’t appreciate NRL but at this time of year I am sure you would find a supporter in the great Rex Mossop who, when objecting to people passing his house on the way to a nudist beach, told the press “I am sick of having male genitalia thrust down my throat”.
    ___________
    And god love him for that. One of the great Australianisms.

  23. Which does remind me of Melbourne own Jack Dyer who when commenting on the VFL remarked one day on the radio:

    “Mark Lee’s long arms reaching up like giant testicles.”

  24. dave says Monday, October 7, 2024 at 1:55 pm

    I am only interested in keeping male genitalia off the streets.

    So you want to restrict men to not leaving the house?

  25. “ And I am determined that if any article of clothing need be banned it is the Speedos.”

    I think they should ban middle aged men wearing Lycra on their bicycles. Also they shouldn’t be allowed to shave their legs because they elicit temptation.

  26. Player One says:
    Monday, October 7, 2024 at 2:24 pm
    Rex Douglas @ #56 Sunday, October 6th, 2024 – 11:00 am

    The Albanese Govt says it supports a two state solution.

    I don’t believe them.
    Of course they support a two state solution. As long as both states are Israeli.

    ___________________________________________

    Makes sense to me. Although the Coalition are far more explicit in that policy. As is Donald Trump.

  27. dave says:
    Monday, October 7, 2024 at 1:55 pm

    I am only interested in keeping male genitalia off the streets.

    When are you shutting down the Mardi Gras?

  28. The next United Kingdom general election is scheduled to be held no later than Wednesday 15 August 2029.

    Some that are already whinging about Starmer have a long wait.

  29. The complaints about the NACC and the Robodebt Royal Commission appear to be politically motivated. I haven’t seen any evidence of corruption.

  30. Robodebt, Abbott’s budgie smugglers and Stanley Bruce’s spats are about all Labor has left to whinge about.
    Every other catastrophe is of their own doing.

  31. FUBAR says:
    Monday, October 7, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    dave says:
    Monday, October 7, 2024 at 1:55 pm

    I am only interested in keeping male genitalia off the streets.

    When are you shutting down the Mardi Gras?
    _____________
    Have no fear. I wouldn’t dare take this away from you as well as Speedos. An exemption could apply in the same way as swimming competitions.

  32. You hit the nail on the head.
    Labor aren’t Australian.
    Where they’re from, I don’t know, but they should fell free to go back there, sooner is better.

  33. bc:

    Monday, October 7, 2024 at 1:53 pm

    [‘I am not a lawyer, but I still don’t understand why the NACC would need to investigate Robodebt? I don’t recall hearing any mention of corrupt conduct being mentioned during the Royal Commission. Given the NACC is basically a standing RC, what else could it do?’]

    In a sealed section, the Robodebt RC found that six senior public servants potentially broke the law, but the NACC decided not to further investigate them. As I see it, this is the crux of the matter. The public has a right to know on what grounds did the NACC make its decision.

    The NACC Inspector (Gail Furness, SC) received more than 900 complaints alleging “corrupt conduct or maladministration”. She had little option but to investigate these allegations. In its current form, the NACC Act is imperfect & in urgent need of amendment, having as a starting point transparency. It’s not much better than the Porter model, giving rise to perceptions of cronyism.

  34. Big boom still happening in Perth regarding property prices.

    My Neighbours in Nollamara three units on block all same design 5 years old bought seperately for $400 thousandish then.3×2.

    They put in an expression of interest process it sold last week on a one month move out.

    $982,OOO .

    They already bought a prop the sellers further out for 60oish.

    Massive profit.

  35. steve davissays:
    Monday, October 7, 2024 at 2:45 pm
    The next United Kingdom general election is scheduled to be held no later than Wednesday 15 August 2029.

    Some that are already whinging about Starmer have a long wait.
    ————–
    Labour backbenchers might not be able to put up with him for that long.

  36. steve davis says:
    Monday, October 7, 2024 at 2:52 pm
    While Australia whinges about everything Labor do. They are starting to deserve Austerity Nuclear Dutton.

    ——————————

    Labor funding $368billion for the US and UK development of the AUKUS nuclear powered submarines is just a step back from Dutton’s nuclear plans.
    And will likely lead to Labor supporting nuclear power in Australia in the future.
    Since we know mostly all Liberal policies are taken up by the current Labor politicians.
    Have been since the Rudd coup in June 2010.

    But here is one exception. Senator Payman.

    Albanese didn’t have to expel her from the party. They could have followed the Liberal policy which allows their MPs to speak out if they disagree. Bridget Archer, Tasmanian MP, being one.

    Interestingly Archer won her seat from the sitting Labor MP when preferences from an Independent who had some funding from the Tasmanian CFMEU went her way. From AEC funding disclosures.

    Albanese has to follow the boss of Labor, Bill Shorten’s decrees. Shorten gave Albanese the LOTO role after Shorten lost in 2019. After Plibersek, Bowen declined his offer.
    Anyone who thinks Labor caucus listens, allows other points of view to be considered is naive.
    Shorten’s hold on the parties policy direction, that is the right faction model much in alignment with Liberal policy, is obvious.

    I expect MPs know they will lose pre-selection if they object too much.
    Which is what Albanese is complaining about with Senator Payman.
    Labor MPs must be yes men to the boss. As I can see Anne Aly MP is.

    What happened to a 2010 Tasmanian Labor Senator, Lisa Singh, when she complained about Labor supporting the LNPs harsh treatment of asylum seekers. Her position on the Tasmanian Labor Senate ticket was bumped down a few places, to third or fourth, unlikely to win the seat she had held.

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