There may be a Resolve Strategic federal poll through later today, but in case there’s not, a new open thread is order despite there not being much new to relate:
• Labor has chosen Tu Le, whose preselection bid in 2022 was scotched when the national executive imposed Kristina Keneally, as its candidate to recover the western Sydney seat of Fowler from independent Dai Le. Tu Le is a lawyer and daughter of Vietnamese refugees, and the decision to cast her aside to accommodate Keneally’s move from the Senate, where she had failed to secure a competitive position on the party ticket, was evidently received poorly by voters in an electorate that encompasses the Vietnamese community hub of Cabramatta. Dai Le defeated Keneally at the election by 1.6% after preferences, after trailing by 36.1% to 29.5% on the primary vote.
• SECNewgate’s semi-regular Mood of the Nation survey finds positivity towards the transition to renewables at its lowest level since the Albanese government came to power, at 47% positive and 26% negative; Labor favoured by 30% on managing the cost of living, steady from July, with the Coalition up two to 29%; 58% favouring Kamala Harris over 22% for Donald Trump; and a downward trajectory for the perceived performance of the Western Australian state government.
• A South Australian state by-election looms in the highly marginal Liberal-held seat of Black after former party leader resigned from parliament yesterday after being charged on two counts of supplying a controlled substance. Police allege the offence took place “between August 2 and 3 and on August 9”, the latter date being a day after he stepped aside as party leader. On September 9, The Advertiser revealed a video, seemingly filmed in the small hours of June 30, appearing to show Speirs snorting a line of white powder in what appeared to be his home. Speirs claimed the video was a deepfake, but The Advertiser published advice from experts who believed otherwise. The police were seemingly likewise unconvinced, having raided Speirs’ house and arrested him on September 26. The last by-election in the state, on March 23, resulted in Labor gaining former Liberal Premier Steven Marshall of Dunstan, overturning a 0.5% margin with a 1.4% swing.
Badthinker @ #291 Monday, October 7th, 2024 – 2:47 pm
Revisionist bollocks.
Get the popcorn out.
Fatima Payman via the West Australian who now love her says she may run a candidate in Albos seat and quote”this will be a full body contact competition and i am not backing down” POW!
And this “ I want an electoral arm wrestle with the prime minister”.KAPOW!
She is keeping the name of her party under raps but it’s not named after her.BAM!
Morgan poll out soon.
@Mavis:
“In a sealed section, the Robodebt RC found that six senior public servants potentially broke the law, but the NACC decided not to further investigate them. As I see it, this is the crux of the matter. The public has a right to know on what grounds did the NACC make its decision.”
The NACC gave reasons for its decision.
The NACC took the view that the Royal Commission already brought everything out in terms of Robodebt and there wasn’t any point in running a further inquiry.
The NACC is not the police and is not a court. It is up to other people to launch prosecutions.
I think the outrage at the NACC has come about in three ways:
– People misunderstand the NACC and seem to think it is meant to be a star chamber prosecution body. It is not. This is no different to say, ICAC in NSW which is surely the best known anti-corruption commission in Australia. I don’t get why people have this misapprehension of the NACC as the judge jury and executioner when it is not any of those, but they do.
– The Royal Commissioner made a point of referring Robodebt to the NACC. This was probably an error. It created an expectation and it isn’t clear what the Royal Commissioner had in mind the NACC would actually do.
– Poor communication from the NACC explaining what its role is, and making it sound more like they were refusing to prosecute or something.
And people claiming that the NACC is being investigated “for corruption” are absolutely fucking part of the problem spreading misinformation and misunderstanding as that is not the case and it is a complete misuse of the word corruption.
pied piper @ #304 Monday, October 7th, 2024 – 5:12 pm
Big deal and so what?
So has she named her party yet? How about the Labor Rat Party?
Latest Morgan:
Poll Period: Sep 30 to Oct 6
Sample: 1697
* ALP 31.5% (up 1.5)
* LNP 37.5% (down 0.5)
* GRN 12.5% (down 1)
* PHON 5.5% (up 1)
* Others/Indies 13% (down 1)
Their 2PP 50-50 evens
Last Election 2PP 52% ALP
Link: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9687-federal-voting-intention-october-7-2024
Hopefully the Resolve poll will come soon too.
@pied piper: “Fatima Payman via the West Australian who now love her says she may run a candidate in Albos seat and quote”this will be a full body contact competition and i am not backing down” POW!”
Yeah wow.
Reminds me of the Murdoch mob and The Age spruiking for cooker candidates running in Dan Andrews’ seat, including one of the biggest hall of shame moments in the history of newspapers reporting on polling when they somehow gave the time of day to a cooker’s self-reported unscientific “exit poll”.
People run stunt candidates against Premiers and Prime Ministers all the time.
The person who thinks Glenn Druery is a political mastermind probably thinks this is all brilliant.
Regarding Dear Sen Payman…
I’m sure we had this discussion on the site a couple of months ago. I could’ve sworn she would be under pressure to set up a “party”. And now here we are.
Morgan still bouncing around like one of those super rubber bouncy balls, eh?
Yes, much more interested in seeing Resolve.
The person who thinks Glenn Druery is a political mastermind probably thinks this is all brilliant.
That would be Glenn Druery. 😐
So, where’s the funding for this Australia-wide campaign coming from, Fatima? You will, with your honesty and transparency head covering on tell us, won’t you?
The funding is coming from labor stupidity in giving her preselection you created this Frankenstein.Diversity is our strength says labor!
Popcorn anyone?
“Head covering” getting nasty!
Arky @ #309 Monday, October 7th, 2024 – 5:22 pm
What’s the bet that a party running on a free Palestine state (incredible to think that this is happening in Australia FFS!) will actually take votes away from the Greens who seem to be campaigning very hard to own that issue.
Hi Nadia, hope all’s good with you.
The wonders of a public holiday in NSW, Morgan poll out on time.
We need more of them!
Good to see Labor improving.
Yes Arky – Morgan is the rollercoaster poll, but a good jump for the ALP, from a whopping sample of just under 1700.
Resolve was due last night. Hopefully they will update in 28 minutes. Occasionally they drop a poll on Monday instead of their usual Sunday.
Link for Resolve is here:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/resolve-political-monitor-20210322-p57cvx.html
Redbridge Group is also overdue.
Tomorrow morning we’ll have the latest Essential Report poll, though their sample is puny – around 1030. Not a good sample.
We should have a few polls this week actually – i’ll whip up a list later on
Hey Been There,
Good to see you around too. You been quiet this past few weeks. Trust all’s well.
We have a pub holiday in QLD too “Monarch’s Birthday”.
Morgan comes out of Victoria, so BAU down there today.
Irene, you do tend to reference the liberal party an awful lot when you’re telling us all how Labor should govern.
Hi Nadia88, great to see you back.
You turn up like clockwork 5pm every monday.
Green vote. Why’s it down?
Senator Payman – any prospects for her party vote.
Is she a threat to labor and/or the greens as well.
Also your footy tipping. Very good.
Glad you are still hanging around.
Upcoming Polls:
* Resolve (via the SMH/Age) – should be due soon. They may push back a week.
* Essential – Tomorrow around 8AM, they update their primaries
* YouGov – Fri lunchtime (if they are back on their 3 week cycle)
* Freshwater Strategy – Sunday evening around 8PM (via the AFR)
* Newspoll – Sun evening around 9.30PM (via the Oz).
We could have another “double event” this coming Sunday.
May even have a double event tonight.
Nice way to start. 🙁
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/october-7-anniversary-live-updates-vigils-rallies-held-in-sydney-one-year-after-hamas-attacks-on-israel-20241007-p5kgci.html?post=p57oyk#p57oyk
It is possible to be critical of Netanyahu and Israel’s policies without resorting to irrational, illogical and inflammatory rhetoric. After all that just leads to this:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/go-back-to-vaucluse-antisemitism-incidents-surge-300-per-cent-20241007-p5kggh.html
All’s well with me Nadia.
I’ve spent the last few weeks with my brother in palliative care up until his passing last Friday night.
It’s all over now, my other brothers, sister and myself had some good reminiscing and discussions with him over that time, having not been together as a group for a few years.
Lots of bridges repaired and closure for all.
He went peacefully and happy, that’s all we wanted to see.
Big shout out to the staff and Doctors RPA Sydney.
You’re the best!
The question is do single issue parties do well in Australia? They might survive an election or two until people move on, but they don’t thrive and prosper. Look at the Greens. They have had to take on a raft of other policy issues in order to stay relevant, and it’s my opinion that the environment has been the casualty of that decision.
Tony Abbott demonstrates his christian principles while speaking to the group Never Again is Now in Canberra to an October 7 vigil rally.
“ Abbott, who is a patron of the Christian organisation, said the “murderers and the organisations” behind the attacks on Israel “should be utterly destroyed and that’s exactly what the Israeli government has been doing ever since”.
As for 40,000 deaths in Gaza:
“ And sure, we lament the civilian casualties, and we admire the way that Israel has been so incredibly fastidious in trying to avoid them, and we admire the extraordinarily clever and successful way in which the Israeli military and government have fought back.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2024/oct/07/australia-news-live-vigil-7-october-anniversary-housing-bill-help-to-buy-cost-of-living-qld-election-health-ntwnfb
My condolences, Been There.
Confessions
I think we can reasonably say that decisions by the Greens are among the very least of those things to which we might attribute the decline of the environment.
Been There – I am so sorry to hear that. You take care & I’m glad that bridges were repaired and the family has dealt with family issues before his passing. Having experienced the loss of close family members, I know that this is a horrible time. Take care.
Although not quite appropriate, the Resolve Poll is now out…
Sample – don’t know. WB will sort out later
Poll Period – likewise, don’t know
2PP – sorry, also don’t know. They don’t release. Steve or WB can you assist pls
* ALP 30% (up 2). Note another rise for the ALP, 2 polls now this evening
* LNP 37% ( up 1)
* GRN 12% (down 1)
* PHON 5% (down 1)
* Others/Indies 14% (down 1)
Link: https://www.smh.com.au/national/resolve-political-monitor-20210322-p57cvx.html
WB – I told you it was coming, albeit 24 hours out!
Been There:
Sorry to hear of your loss.
Labor HQ thinking of ways to save Albo.. from himself.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2024/oct/07/theres-an-election-looming-and-the-governments-messaging-is-a-shambles-its-time-to-save-albo-from-himself
Thanks Rex, Nadia & Confessions
Labor bounces back when House isn’t sitting.
October Sitting starts tomorrow.
Let’s see how far Labor drops next monday.
++++===++==+=++===+++++=
First Dog isn’t funny, but he gets it.
You only get one Brittany Higgins in a lifetime and Labor’s had theirs.
On Resolve, you’ll note that the PM has now taken a 3 pt lead over Mr Dutton as preferred PM.
This poll showed Dutton in the lead during July and August.
Somethings up.
In the absence of Steve 777 & WB, my rough reckoning of the Resolve 2PP is 50.2% alp.
And Correction, the LNP primary is 38% (not 37, but still up 1)
Been There
Just read your post and also sorry for your loss. I’m glad your family got to talk and find peace.
You’re a decent poster on this site rex, despite you getting piled on from time to time. Sad that this happens to you.
My commiserations too been there.
When the ME conflict is framed as beginning on Oct 7, I’m reminded of the old climate change denialists who would claim there was no problem because there’d apparently been no warming since 1998
Nadia
I have been critical of some government decisions in the past few months but I still think Albo has two things in his favour:
1. Efforts to halt inflation and help address the cost of living are taking effect.
2. Peter Dutton. More than just a No man, Dutton is a nasty piece of work.
pied pipersays:
Monday, October 7, 2024 at 5:33 pm
[The funding is coming from labor stupidity in giving her preselection you created this Frankenstein.Diversity is our strength says labor!]
[Popcorn anyone?]
[“Head cove,,,ring” getting nasty]
You’re only jealous that someone beat you to “nasty”
The support for Hezbollah and Hamas in the demonstrations in Australia today and since 7 October 2023 show that extremist Islamicists are deeply entrenched in Australia. These are people who seek the complete elimination of Jews and Israel. This is a massive security threat. What is the Federal ALP Government, ASIO, and the AFP doing to root out these terrorists?
The fact that the Greens are fully aligned with them is especially worrying. They have unfettered access in Parliament House.
https://archive.is/00k3p (no paywall version of article in The Australian that just went up)
LNP MP Jon Krause says more ‘like-minded’ politicians need to be elected to repeal abortion laws
In a direct challenge to leader David Crisafulli’s vow there would be ‘no change’ to abortion laws, Scenic Rim MP Jon Krause has pledged his support to overturn or make ‘significant amendments’ to the legislation.
Been there
Sorry to hear of your loss.
‘Rewi says:
Monday, October 7, 2024 at 5:59 pm
Confessions
I think we can reasonably say that decisions by the Greens are among the very least of those things to which we might attribute the decline of the environment.’
======================================
There is an excellent case for just that.
All the truly large environmental gains were:
1. Made as a result of agreements between the Labor Governments and the environmental movement before the Greens formed a party
2. Created by the Liberals in a deal with the Dems
3. Created by Labor Governments in their own right.
Other factors:
1. The Greens routinely oppose all of Labor’s environmental reforms. They are currently joined with Dutton to prevent reform of the EPBC Act. After all the Greens perfect is a routine enemy of anybody else’s good.
2. The Greens sank the best climate action chance for a decade.
3. The Greens extremism on all fronts has enabled the general environmental debate to be hijacked by the extreme right as also being extremist.
4. The Greens have locked up the environmental vote. It is not in play. There is little point in other parties competing for the environmental vote. The environment is therefore dead political ground in any sense other than Greens stunting, delaying and blocking. That the Greens have delivered worse than nothing for the environment over 30 years does not seem to have occurred to people who vote for the Greens.
‘Socrates says:
Monday, October 7, 2024 at 6:20 pm
Nadia
I have been critical of some government decisions in the past few months but I still think Albo has two things in his favour:
1. Efforts to halt inflation and help address the cost of living are taking effect.
2. Peter Dutton. More than just a No man, Dutton is a nasty piece of work.’
=====================================
There is a lot more than that, IMO.
1. Interest rate cut. At least one before the election and probably two.
2. Falling inflation.
3. One million jobs created.
4. Closing the gender pay gap.
5. Real wages growing – particularly amongst the lowest paid.
6. A large suite of COL assistances.
7. Two budget surpluses.
Finally, the biggie: Incumbency.
Labor has another budget in hand.
Leroy says:
Monday, October 7, 2024 at 6:36 pm
You’re expecting Crisafulli to pull an Albo and break his election promise?
Boerwar says:
Monday, October 7, 2024 at 6:47 pm
‘Rewi says:
Monday, October 7, 2024 at 5:59 pm
Confessions
I think we can reasonably say that decisions by the Greens are among the very least of those things to which we might attribute the decline of the environment.’
======================================
There is an excellent case for just that.
All the truly large environmental gains were:
1. Made as a result of agreements between the Labor Governments and the environmental movement before the Greens formed a party
2. Created by the Liberals in a deal with the Dems
3. Created by Labor Governments in their own right.
Other factors:
1. The Greens routinely oppose all of Labor’s environmental reforms. They are currently joined with Dutton to prevent reform of the EPBC Act. After all the Greens perfect is a routine enemy of anybody else’s good.
2. The Greens sank the best climate action chance for a decade.
3. The Greens extremism on all fronts has enabled the general environmental debate to be hijacked by the extreme right as also being extremist.
4. The Greens have locked up the environmental vote. It is not in play. There is little point in other parties competing for the environmental vote. The environment is therefore dead political ground in any sense other than Greens stunting, delaying and blocking. That the Greens have delivered worse than nothing for the environment over 30 years does not seem to have occurred to people who vote for the Greens.
___________
I will question the last point. The Teals have definitely benefited from having a strong climate policy. I really wish they would organise for the Senate to perform the role of the Australian Democrats, as The Greens have shown themselves as inadequate. I reckon that Druery is looking to craft the new party to fill this gap in the Senate
Interest rate cuts, inflation falling and the surpluses allowing Labor to now spend, having done the hard yards on economic management despite all the barrackers shouting at them to do short term spends that would be counter-productive by raising inflation.
That’s why Labor will win the election, or why they will lose if the rates aren’t cut and the opportunity to go more expansive doesn’t materialise.
I’ve only been saying it for the 2 years since the RBA rate rise cycle started. It’s still true.
Perhaps I’ve filtered the memory, but my recollection is that it never used to be like this. The Greens (such as their numbers were in the parliament) were willing to negotiate and compromise.
This my way or the highway position seems to me to be something fostered by Bob Brown and championed to the point of exclusion of any other standpoints by RDN and Bandt.
Confessions says:
Monday, October 7, 2024 at 7:02 pm
“The environment is therefore dead political ground in any sense other than Greens stunting, delaying and blocking.”
Perhaps I’ve filtered the memory, but my recollection is that it never used to be like this. The Greens (such as their numbers were in the parliament) were willing to negotiate and compromise.
This my way or the highway position seems to me to be something fostered by Bob Brown and championed to the point of exclusion of any other standpoints by RDN and Bandt.
_________
I think there was a shift in strategy with Bandt as Leader combined with obtaining colleagues in the Lower House.
@FUBAR: “What is the Federal ALP Government, ASIO, and the AFP doing to root out these terrorists?”
The same as they were doing under the Coalition government but managed by people who are less giant fuckwit, I’d expect.
If the Coalition was in government you’d never expect the security services or government to publicise what they’re doing to keep tabs on possible terrorists and rightly so, so don’t pull this shit of expecting them to publicise it now.
Arky says:
Monday, October 7, 2024 at 7:06 pm
@FUBAR: “What is the Federal ALP Government, ASIO, and the AFP doing to root out these terrorists?”
The same as they were doing under the Coalition government but managed by people who are less giant fuckwit, I’d expect.
If the Coalition was in government you’d never expect the security services or government to publicise what they’re doing to keep tabs on possible terrorists and rightly so, so don’t pull this shit of expecting them to publicise it now.
_________
Don’t you want a free fridge magnet? 🙂
@Griff – heh.
Admittedly the fridge magnets were a Howardism, not Morrison,assuming we’re thinking of the Be Alert Not Alarmed thingies.