There may be a Resolve Strategic federal poll through later today, but in case there’s not, a new open thread is order despite there not being much new to relate:
• Labor has chosen Tu Le, whose preselection bid in 2022 was scotched when the national executive imposed Kristina Keneally, as its candidate to recover the western Sydney seat of Fowler from independent Dai Le. Tu Le is a lawyer and daughter of Vietnamese refugees, and the decision to cast her aside to accommodate Keneally’s move from the Senate, where she had failed to secure a competitive position on the party ticket, was evidently received poorly by voters in an electorate that encompasses the Vietnamese community hub of Cabramatta. Dai Le defeated Keneally at the election by 1.6% after preferences, after trailing by 36.1% to 29.5% on the primary vote.
• SECNewgate’s semi-regular Mood of the Nation survey finds positivity towards the transition to renewables at its lowest level since the Albanese government came to power, at 47% positive and 26% negative; Labor favoured by 30% on managing the cost of living, steady from July, with the Coalition up two to 29%; 58% favouring Kamala Harris over 22% for Donald Trump; and a downward trajectory for the perceived performance of the Western Australian state government.
• A South Australian state by-election looms in the highly marginal Liberal-held seat of Black after former party leader resigned from parliament yesterday after being charged on two counts of supplying a controlled substance. Police allege the offence took place “between August 2 and 3 and on August 9”, the latter date being a day after he stepped aside as party leader. On September 9, The Advertiser revealed a video, seemingly filmed in the small hours of June 30, appearing to show Speirs snorting a line of white powder in what appeared to be his home. Speirs claimed the video was a deepfake, but The Advertiser published advice from experts who believed otherwise. The police were seemingly likewise unconvinced, having raided Speirs’ house and arrested him on September 26. The last by-election in the state, on March 23, resulted in Labor gaining former Liberal Premier Steven Marshall of Dunstan, overturning a 0.5% margin with a 1.4% swing.
Arky says:
Monday, October 7, 2024 at 7:12 pm
@Griff – heh.
Admittedly the fridge magnets were a Howardism, not Morrison,assuming we’re thinking of the Be Alert Not Alarmed thingies.
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That’s the one! For me that was better than the back in black mug for a few reasons. Taxpayers paid for them for a start 🙂
RDN was reportedly similarly obstinate. Remember all those stories about him being unwilling to listen to his partyroom that prompted the whispering campaign against him?
Thank you Socrates, Vlad and Boerwar.
Gillard’s second most famous parliamentary speech!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pXJilIspYOs
Confessions says:
Monday, October 7, 2024 at 7:17 pm
“I think there was a shift in strategy with Bandt as Leader combined with obtaining colleagues in the Lower House.”
RDN was reportedly similarly obstinate. Remember all those stories about him being unwilling to listen to his partyroom that prompted the whispering campaign against him?
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Oh RDN wasn’t a great negotiator by any means. But RDN didn’t have people like MCM egging him on.
I see that First Dag on the Moon is having yet another go at Labor. FDOTM needs worming.
Confessions says:
Monday, October 7, 2024 at 7:21 pm
“Don’t you want a free fridge magnet?”
Gillard’s second most famous parliamentary speech!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pXJilIspYOs
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Classic! I perversely want a Workchoices mousepad now 🙂
Vladsays:
Monday, October 7, 2024 at 5:48 pm
….
Green vote. Why’s it down?
Senator Payman – any prospects for her party vote.
Is she a threat to labor and/or the greens as well.
Also your footy tipping. Very good.
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Hi Vlad,
1. Per Green vote “down” – Roy Morgan is a bit of a rollercoaster poll and the vote movements week on week are quite volatile. Most posters on this sight have little regard for Morgan, however I like it because of the sample size and it’s good for monitoring trends. The “Green vote down” on the Resolve poll is of more significance, though I don’t know the sample. The site host will provide his analysis during the week when we get a new thread. The Green vote is peaking in Brisbane at the moment, and I believe there was a figure of 16% floating around over the weekend on the weekend thread. I don’t have the source so am only going by PB posters.
2. Senator Payman & her “party”.
No she is not a threat to the ALP vote, nor to the Greens.
Both ALP voters, and Green’s voters, are fairly tribal. ALP voters in W.A. will definately not provide her with a vote. She will quietly exit the senate on 30-Jun-2028….except if she does this…
There is an opening in W.A. with the Greens, as Sen Dorinda Cox is also due for re-election in June 2028. If I was Sen Payman, I would be joining the Greens, and then working very very & “more very” hard to impress the Greens hierachy that I should be placed above Sen Cox at the 2028 half senate election. That is the only future for Sen Payman. Senator Cox is in a bit of strife ATM, so Payman needs to “jump in”. If I was her, I would keep away from Glenn Druery, as this will only lead to her defeat, and the end of her Senate term on 30-Jun-2028.
I think a lot of this site rates Glenn Druery lower than the Roy Morgan poll, mainly because of the Senate voting changes made in 2016.
3. Footy tipping.
OK, thanks I suppose.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-07/about-13-million-spare-bedrooms-in-australia-housing-crisis/104439670?utm_source=abc_news_app&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_campaign=abc_news_app&utm_content=link
Just because you have a “spare” bedroom doesn’t mean you want to rent it out. There’s no way I’d want my Mum or the In-Laws having to share their homes with strangers.
Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham
Morgan ALP 31.5 L-NP 37.5 Grn 12.5 ON 5.5 IND 9* other 4
* likely more than IND would get
By respondent prefs 50-50 (ALP up 1)
By last-election prefs 52-48 to ALP (+0.5) – my average for these primaries 51.6
Sorry for your loss, Been There.
Nothing I say will make you feel better but I am glad that it sounds like it ended as well as possible under the circumstances.
Griff:
With an unknown number of fridge magnets that seems the more likely score 😆
How many millions is the ALP spending on telling us we got a tax cut?
Thanks FUBAR.
Did we all get a tax cut instead of it just going to the FUBARs of the world?
Thanks be to Labor!
I do hope they took into account changes to irrigation offtakes.
The canary in the coalmine is not freshwater, IMO.
It is insurance premiums. Follow the numbers. Follow the money.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/07/climate-warning-as-worlds-rivers-dry-up-at-fastest-rate-for-30-years
The only political advantage that Fatima Payman has is that she has 3.5 years to go before she is up for re-election. She is pitching herself into a crowded space where the ALP, Greens and Teals have more resources and more political focus. What she and Glenn Druery don’t seem to realise is that to get elected you have to have boots on the ground to run and hand out HTVs. It just ain’t going to happen – Jacqui Lambie is in Tasmania – small and used to localised issues – and she has a big personality to boot. The ‘its not called the Payman Party’ will be lucky to get 1% of the vote – no public funding – for what? The best funding she will be a Senate salary and severance funding when she loses in 2028.
The Coalition have the concepts of a plan for nuclear power.
If David Wirrpanda can’t win a Senate seat for the Nationals in WA, I can’t see Payman winning one in her own right.
BBs
Agree. What she will get for the next 3.5 years is disproportionate oodles of free MSM coverage.
Hmmm Alp bestie Fatima is running mainly in senate candidates.Teals in senate how many? Labor on nose and greens peaked?
Labor haters will boost Payman with publicity all the way to election day as Dud arse Albo did in the AFR today.
Free publicity via West Australian and 7 network around Aust right till next election.
In Bludger Track the Greens have fallen off their recent high of +.6% to now be +.4% since the last election.
They are on 12.7%.
FUBAR
She did a listening tour and returned from that to say some nice things about sheep farmers.
I had rather thought the WA sheep farming vote is not in play.
Socrates says:
Monday, October 7, 2024 at 6:20 pm
…
I have been critical of some government decisions in the past few months but I still think Albo has two things in his favour:
1. Efforts to halt inflation and help address the cost of living are taking effect.
2. Peter Dutton. More than just a No man, Dutton is a nasty piece of work.
=====================================================
Per (1). Inflation will definately come down lower when the next figures are released. We’ve all seen petrol prices hovering around 1.69 cents per litre, compared to 2.20 cents per litre in June/early july. That is quite a significant drop, and I believe “fuel” accounts for about 17% of the CPI basket.
Next qtrly inflation figures are due on 30-Oct (23 days away), and I’d say we’ll have a rate cut on Melb Cup Day. The fuel prices dropping down has had nothing to do with the PM, but I bet he’ll take advantage of it. We all would if we were him!
Per (2).
Regardless of whether some regard him as a “no” man, or “nasty”, his party is pulling between 38-41% of primary votes around the country, depending on which poll we look at.
BT has the LNP now averaging out at 38.3%.
About 2 in five Australian voters don’t regard him as “no” or “nasty”. That’s the reality.
The mistake that many Senators make (and Payman is clearly one of these) is to think that they got elected in their right, whereas the hard truth is that they are only there because they are on a party ticket. To my mind, there are only two current Senators who get elected on name recognition alone (and both originally came to province via a party preselection), and that’s Hanson and Lambie. The vast majority of turncoat Senators quietly exit the door at the end of their term, and that’s what will happen to the current trio of party rats, Payman, Thorpe and Rinnick.
Boer – LNP & Pauline now up 4.7% combined on BT since the last election.
These are serious primary movements.
15 sitting days left this year will labor call the election for feb next year?
Last sitting days of this gov coming ?why do a budget that labor says will be billions in debt.
WA March state election wait till after and voters having relected labor statewise will feel safe in booting labor federally.
Watch behaviour for clues if labor plans to return to parliament next year.
What’s Payman’s voting rec ord since she quit Lasbor?
100% Labor, i’d imagine?
Tells you all you need to know, imo.
Anthem for politicians that quit their party but remain in parliament without resigning.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6R4ZOYLMlI
Her and Chaney have something in common – a road to Katanning conversion to supporting live sheep export for some reason.
Four Corners tonight is examining the details of the “new” nuclear reactors in Georgia, USA. Claims of falling prices for both construction and consumers are being despatched handily.
Ted O’Brien, confronted with the evidence, switches to talking about “learning lessons”. He is caught out on lies about timing too.
More proper journalism like this please Aunty!
“To my mind, there are only two current Senators who get elected on name recognition alone (and both originally came to province via a party preselection), and that’s Hanson and Lambie.”
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Pocock?
pied piper says:
Monday, October 7, 2024 at 9:05 pm
15 sitting days left this year will labor call the election for feb next year?
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No, won’t be an election in Feb next year. That would require him to campaign over January.
It’s either a late March budget, and a May election, or… this scenario.
* Oct 26 – QLD Election done and dusted. QLD’ers have the gov’t they want & anger abated.
* Oct 30 – Sept Qtr Inflation figures released. Inflation will be down, possibly even a negative reading for this qtr isolated, with petrol and subsidised electricity bills bringing it down. The electricity rebates were legislated, but the “sudden” drop in fuel prices is a gift from electoral heaven.
* Nov 5 – Melb Cup Day. More importantly the RBA meets. Has to be a rate cut! This will send a massive message to swinging voters that the gov’t has the reins of the economy.
* Nov 6 (our time) – U.S. Election, or from Albo’s POV – U.S. Distraction.
…. and now for the speculation:
Sun 10-Nov: Albo toddles off to the Governor.
Sat 14-Dec: House & half senate election.
Tight timeframe, but certainly do-able.
And no need to worry about an early budget which we know will be a deficit of at least $27.3b.
Surely better to go early, crowing about 2 consecutive surpluses and a rate cut on Nov-5.
pied piper says:
Monday, October 7, 2024 at 9:05 pm
15 sitting days left this year will labor call the election for feb next year?
—————
On Insiders yesterday they were suggesting that Parliament won’t re-sit next year, so you’d think pretty early if that’s the case. WA election is on 8 March if they are trying to avoid too much overlap.
Noticed a YouTube ad from the Labor MP for Swan yesterday if that’s any possible sign of the December scenario Nadia’s mentioned.
Classic First Dog. A message from Toto** …
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2024/oct/07/theres-an-election-looming-and-the-governments-messaging-is-a-shambles-its-time-to-save-albo-from-himself
** This message authorized by Toto on behalf of the Australian Laborador Party.
As far as the rejigged Senator is concerned and the “sheep” farmers, the political clout of the latter is not all that much. Despite the propaganda, the important farming is grain farming in WA.
Sheep for meat here, or elsewhere, is small beer……Most city voters – including those in WA – do not give a stuff.
So poor was a farmers’ protest in Perth not so long ago, they had to move to a regional town to make themselves look as if they had much support at all.
The Liberal candidate for Tangney, Howard Ong, has appeared in an ad on my Facebook page.
According to Howard, people in Tangney are very concerned about safety.
He says he has been showing the Liberal spokesman for keeping people safe, Senator Patterson, around the electorate and it’s an understatement to say that Patterson looks like he is anything but happy to be there.
Does he feel unsafe?
Or maybe it the one size too small blue suit he his wearing that is making him uncomfortable.
Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham
ResolvePM ALP 30 L-NP 38 Green 12 ON 5 IND 12* other 3
(* IND would not actually get that at election – IND on ballot everywhere + forced choice question)
My 2PP estimate off these primaries 51.0 to ALP (+0.4)
nadia88says:
Monday, October 7, 2024 at 9:26 pm
pied piper says:
Monday, October 7, 2024 at 9:05 pm
15 sitting days left this year will labor call the election for feb next year?
=========================================================
No, won’t be an election in Feb next year. That would require him to campaign over January.
It’s either a late March budget, and a May election, or… this scenario.
* Oct 26 – QLD Election done and dusted. QLD’ers have the gov’t they want & anger abated.
* Oct 30 – Sept Qtr Inflation figures released. Inflation will be down, possibly even a negative reading for this qtr isolated, with petrol and subsidised electricity bills bringing it down. The electricity rebates were legislated, but the “sudden” drop in fuel prices is a gift from electoral heaven.
* Nov 5 – Melb Cup Day. More importantly the RBA meets. Has to be a rate cut! This will send a massive message to swinging voters that the gov’t has the reins of the economy.
* Nov 6 (our time) – U.S. Election, or from Albo’s POV – U.S. Distraction.
…. and now for the speculation:
Sun 10-Nov: Albo toddles off to the Governor.
Sat 14-Dec: House & half senate election.
Tight timeframe, but certainly do-able.
And no need to worry about an early budget which we know will be a deficit of at least $27.3b.
Surely better to go early, crowing about 2 consecutive surpluses and a rate cut on Nov-5.
_______________________
Except there will be a budget regardless (of sorts), the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Outlook, which in the absence of budget or legislative changes will publish some gory numbers and the usual accusations of “budget black holes”.
nadia88 says:
Monday, October 7, 2024 at 9:26 pm
I wouldn’t be betting on a Melbourne Cup rate cut.
Why would they go early when the polling is so poor?
If they had good polls I could understand it, but they aren’t. Better off hanging on for as long as possible with an election budget and maybe a rate cut.
Election in May 25, ALP win.
HH,
i’m afraid nadia has beaten you to the post with both polls.
She’s all over it. She is a bulldog with polls. Check the blog since 5.20pm.
But thanks anyway.
Labor’s best primary vote from Resolve since April.
Tricot says:
Monday, October 7, 2024 at 9:43 pm
I would expect that the vast majority of WA farmers, whether in sheep, grains, beef or dairy would support the live sheep exporters. The fact that both Payman and Chaney have had a come to Jesus moment on the live export issue indicates to me that there is a reasonable amount of weight in the opinions.
Also the equal best result for the Coalition, but hey.
The Four Corners story on nuclear power spin is here. Recommended.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-07/nuclear-gamble/104442072
Yeah, no chance of an early election even if the RBA goes a cut at their next meeting (far from guaranteed). You have to give it time to percolate and for people to feel the extra money in their accounts, and then come in with the election promise hamper on top of that.
Not early election speculation again!?! Oi vey! 🙄
nadia88says:
Saturday, September 21, 2024 at 9:48 pm
AFL GF – Brisbane to win
NRL GF (week later)- Storm v Panthers. I’ll have a think. Hopefully Storm, but most likely Panthers, despite Storm beating them twice this year. OK Panthers.
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Nadia – I made some money on this very prescient pick of yours from Sept 21. You’re a gun on footy, no doubt. I think you picked 18 finals winners out of 18 for both competitions combined.
With regard to an early election, I think this is a bridge way too far.
There are ALP and LNP posters (members) on this site, and they all know when the “call” goes out to organise venues etc for an upcoming election. Nothing has leaked on this site. Also, Canberra goes into a tailspin as an election approaches, especially early election speculation. Nothing is leaking out of Canberra, excpet for some feverish speculation from youtube posters. C’mon.
Don’t diminish your excellent posting record this year with talk of a Dec 14 election.
Dutton could spin the nuclear turbines with his own hot air about them. 😐
It’s not a huge number of people in WA that would be too concerned with a live sheep ban. 75% are in Perth and know next to nothing about farming. The few who are annoyed seem very annoyed and probably have big wallets to fund the Liberals in Curtin, because if anything Chaney’s constituents would look at her change in position negatively and may push a few of her voters to the Greens or AJP if they’re standing.