Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)

Marginal changes on the primary vote prove sufficient to give the Coalition a two-party lead in Newspoll for the first time this term.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll records a two-party lead for the Coalition for the first time since this term, at 51-49 after a 50-50 result three weeks ago, though both major parties are unchanged on the primary vote, Labor at 31% and the Coalition at 38%. The movement is down to a one-point drop for the Greens to 12% and a one-point increase for One Nation to 7%. Anthony Albanese is down three on approval to 40% and up three on disapproval to 54%, edging out past results in August (41% and 54%) and last November (40% and 53%) as his worst net result for the term. Peter Dutton is respectively up one to 38% and steady at 52%, with preferred prime minister narrowing from 46-37 to 45-37. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1258.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

74 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)”

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  1. “ Anthony Albanese is down three on approval to 40% and up three on disapproval to 54%, edging out past results in August (41% and 54%) and last November (40% and 53%) as his worst net result for the term”

    Nobody here seems to have mentioned Albanese’s Tourette’s Syndrome mocking insult in Parliament.

    Citizens have just added ‘nasty’ to their weak, ineffectual, hypocritical, stubborn, arrogant and unambitious opinion of their Prime Minister.

    Albanese’s planned ‘ambitious’ second term may well be too little too late.

  2. The Tourette’s comment suggests Albo’s feeling the pressure and/or a bit cognitively deficient. A pretty dumb thing to say and I think he recognised that fairly quickly but should have realised it before he said it, Anne Aly’s reaction was particularly telling. People can forgive those things if you’re actually doing the job that is expected of you, but atm they just look like seatwarmers. I don’t think Labor is going to find a centrist path to forever govt. if it doesn’t directly compete with greens it will get squeezed

  3. It was mentioned Eddy, at least the minus 14%.
    Shocking figure for this ‘wonderful PM’, but if they think this is great, let them think that.
    Most of the laborites fled the site when they saw the 2PP.
    Cat and boerwar surprisingly quiet.
    Disappointing the green primary however.

  4. On important matters Albo talks bipartisanship but then refuses to compromise and tries to wedge the Coalition. Did it with the Voice Referendum and did it with the 7 Oct motion last week. He must think voters are complete mugs.

    It’s good to see a whole lot of smugness wiped off quite a few posters.

  5. Albo promised to reduce household energy bills by $275 per year – every year (and not through giving us our own money back but by actually reducing retail electricity prices).

    Someone explain how he’s going to achieve that between now and May next year?

  6. Fubar, I don’t think people are interested in wedge politics. It’s why more people are being put off the ALP and LNP. It’s all meaningless manipulation while actual problems and coming up with solutions are left ignored.

  7. Only party who’s primary vote drops in the new poll is Greens. Nek minnit place filled with Greens gloating and making the usual claims that Labor would do better if they were more like the Greens despite the evidence to the contrary. . Showing true colours once again.

    Anyway, just as one didn’t particularly react to the vaguely better polling earlier in the week, one doesn’t hit the red alert button over one poll vaguely worse.

    I always thought that if interest rates hadn’t turned around this far into the term the polling would have actually got worse than this by now.

  8. Like KB, I can’t see that things have moved all that much against the Government in this poll. The electorate clearly still sees Labor as meh, but, if an election were held tomorrow, would still probably give it enough seats to form a minority government.

    But the assessment of Albo personally is concerning, but hardly surprising. We all always knew deep in our hearts that he wasn’t really up to the job, and so it has turned out.

    The risk now is that.the negative attitude towards Albo personally begins to deep into thr 2pp. Ir hasn’t done so that much so far, but elections being unpopular leaders more to the front of people’s minds.

    They can’t get rid of him, so they will need to thrust some of their other spokespeople further forward and him more into the background. And perhaps bring the date of the wedding forward.

  9. meher baba 4.06am
    [But the assessment of Albo personally is concerning, but hardly surprising. We all always knew deep in our hearts that he wasn’t really up to the job, and so it has turned out.]

    Geez, that’s a cracker !

  10. “ LABBOUNEH, Lebanon—On a forested mountainside near the border between Israel and Lebanon, two tunnel shafts descend dozens of feet into the rocky earth.

    Around 300 feet away, the blue United Nations flag waved atop a peacekeeping observation post.

    The Israeli military took a group of reporters into Lebanon on Sunday to see the shafts, which it said were among hundreds of tunnel entrances and underground bunkers used by Hezbollah militants to store weapons and hide fighters west of the Lebanese village of Labbouneh.

    Israel has faced criticism from the U.N. and European capitals for injuries to peacekeepers as Israeli forces engage in a ground offensive against Hezbollah. U.N. personnel have been wounded and compounds have been damaged, according to the U.N.

    Israeli officers said the presence of the tunnels was evidence that Hezbollah had built military infrastructure around U.N. and civilian settlements, using them as cover. They also said that the U.N. peacekeepers, who are supposed to monitor and prevent militant activities along the border, weren’t doing their job.“

    https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hezbollah-tunnel-entrances-abut-u-n-peacekeeping-position-israel-alleges-4b821c03

  11. And the true believers, holding hands, ready:-
    “We Shall Overcome”
    Song by Joan Baez

    “We shall overcome
    We shall overcome
    We shall overcome, someday”

    Chorus:
    “Oh, deep in my heart
    I know that I do believe
    We shall overcome, someday”

    Thankfully 31+ are still holding hands
    And enough probably won’t hold hands with Dutton and Barnaby

  12. The Corduroy Kid is on patrol today, brimming with andenalin, as the polls remain unchanged.
    Well may the true believers fall into song, with a rendition of “we shall overcome”, the rest “stand easy” as a report arrives justifying the killing of thousands.

    (The whole bloody ME thing is wrong)

    Thankfully we’re all living in peace (in a manner) throughout the wide brown land and to the PM’s credit, Australia will remain that way despite the “skirmishes” in the polls and excitement in the ranks.

  13. FUBARsays:
    Monday, October 14, 2024 at 4:25 am
    meher baba says:
    Monday, October 14, 2024 at 4:06 am

    [But his Fiancé is so nice.]

    Eddysays:
    Monday, October 14, 2024 at 5:13 am
    “ But his Fiancé is so nice.”

    “Fubar, and Toto is nice too.”

    It’s perhaps not such a good idea to be cynically flippant considering the debris left around Parliament House after years of the mistreatment of women by consecutive LNP governments.

  14. goll: Albo has always been one of those people whose self-confidence exceeds their capabilities.

    Sometimes, when such people are thrust into top jobs, they find something extra within themselves and step up to the mark.

    It hasn’t happened with Albo.

  15. goll

    Albo has never been as smart as he thinks he is. I had hoped that, when he became PM, he’d work effectively within his limitations. But, unfortunately, he’s continued down the path of doing things that he thinks are politically clever, but they aren’t.

    And he struggles to lead. The leadership on the government’s response to the ME situation has been scheissenhausen. Ditto for the immigration issues earlier this year. And the Voice last year.

    He’s NBG. And there’s really nobody to replace him who would be any better. And yet, the economy is ok and the electorate likes to give governments two terms in which to prove themselves, so I still think Labor will just fall over the line for, at worst, a minority government. And then struggle on.

    Not much to look forward to, is it? It’s getting almost as silly and muddled as Tassie politics.

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