The Australian reports the latest Newspoll records a two-party lead for the Coalition for the first time since this term, at 51-49 after a 50-50 result three weeks ago, though both major parties are unchanged on the primary vote, Labor at 31% and the Coalition at 38%. The movement is down to a one-point drop for the Greens to 12% and a one-point increase for One Nation to 7%. Anthony Albanese is down three on approval to 40% and up three on disapproval to 54%, edging out past results in August (41% and 54%) and last November (40% and 53%) as his worst net result for the term. Peter Dutton is respectively up one to 38% and steady at 52%, with preferred prime minister narrowing from 46-37 to 45-37. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1258.
It’s remarkable that Labor has fallen from the high point of the Aston by-election to the current 49-51 TPP in such a short period of time. A very special type of political incompetence rarely seen anywhere.
Dutton will never be PM!
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.Never I tells ya!!&’;))6_#”+!!?!
Actually not a bad result all things considered for Labor given everything that has happened to it. Maybe the NBN scare campaign was the difference?
I wonder if Albo has been advising Kier…..
Don’t think anyone expected this poll.
Early last week the 3 polls which came out showed a slight uptick on the ALP primary.
This one’s come as a bit of a surprise.
This is not a good poll for Mr Albanese (minus 14 net sat)
Having said that, it’s not glamourous for Mr Dutton either – he’s still on minus 14 net sat.
This is what happens when you turn up to a gun duel thinking it’s just a game of conkers.
You guys are panicking over a one-point increase to the coalition this is why I don’t comment on polls here anymore I’ll leave you to you guys panic attack
You’d think on this kind of 2PP Labor would end up with ~65 seats in the lower house and would probably need teals + Greens to get anything through.
Approval ratings are equally poor for Albo and Dutton so pretty much cancel each other out. I think Albo has more upside to improve his ratings if he’s serious about the ambitious agenda.
Good. I’d rather a Coalition government than a Labor Government at the beck and call of the Green parasites. They may well have poisoned their “hot”.
Last freshwater had libs 52-48 up.
Yep up main story of West Australian now “Shock result as liberals pull ahead of labor”.
IR laws anybody?
If the Coalition recapture 1 or 2 teal seats, and the Coalition win the TPP and more seats than Labor, the pressure on the remaining Teals to (reluctantly) back Dutton will be immense.
From the moment it was evident to most people that the Coalition wouldn’t back The Voice, Albanese and his ministers have been like deer in the headlights.
Quentin – it’s an interesting poll, because we have a situation where the major primaries have remained the same, but the 2PP has altered because the Greens dropped a point and Pauline gained one.
The net sat for the PM is a concern.
@Kirsdarke, I think you are right. The ALP continue to play checkers by the rules. The LNP are playing murderball don’t care that they don’t know what the rules are.
The ALP really must start to fight soon. Blaming the Greens is not working. Dutton is an easy target – go get him.
He’s dull, nasty, not very bright and has terrible ideals. He was a terrible minister and camapaigns poorly and disingenuously. We can see the whites of his eyes.
Nice guys lose, and we all lose if Dutton and Co get their hands on the treasury benches again.
The rot set in when Albo wasted 400 billion dollars on a failed referendum that needlessly divided the country, and the government since then has been frankly mediocre. Combine that with the perception that much of our foreign policy seems to dependent on mollifying voters of the Islamic faith in Western Sydney seats.
And as for what this government does right, the Albanese spin unit does a poor job promoting it.
Tricotsays:
Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 9:40 pm
However, for the anti-Labor cheer squad, something to gloat about for a day or so.
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No more gloating from Albo about having never lost a Newspoll.
Ever.
A deserving result for a directionless government but there’s still plenty of time for them to get their act together.
Nadia88 it’s statistical noise we don’t know what’s gonna happen next year I mean remember 2018 we all fought labour had in the bag just saying people need to calm down and take a deep breath people act like it’s 56 to 44 to coalition
pied pipersays:
Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 9:52 pm
Last freshwater had libs 52-48 up.
Yep up main story of West Australian now “Shock result as liberals pull ahead of labor”.
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Are you saying the Freshwater figures are up too? I can’t see them anywhere
Margin of error stuff on the back of minor changes among the “others” vote. Nothing much has changed for months, including in this poll. For a site dedicated to polling analysis, an awful lot of PB commenters don’t seem to understand how polling works.
The next newspoll comes a day before the next house sitting after the ACT/QLD Elections. Parliament should be interesting if there is no change in the 2pp and then a lot of focus on Albo.
All good Quentin, and you make sure you drop by for the polls. I like your contribution.
Kos Samaras has said we’ll have a Redbridge poll tomorrow, and as usual we’ll have Roy Morgan after 5PM. We should have that Freshwater within the next few days too, so swing by and drop a line.
Last months sep16 poll.Err for previous time period.
Some labor people in VIC have suggested says hun that Kos salads state poll was a little skewed or biased a bit vague.
Labor need to extend those electricity rebates till election day.
MABWMsays:
Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 9:53 pm
@Kirsdarke, I think you are right. The ALP continue to play checkers by the rules. The LNP are playing murderball don’t care that they don’t know what the rules are.
The ALP really must start to fight soon. Blaming the Greens is not working. Dutton is an easy target – go get him.
He’s dull, nasty, not very bright and has terrible ideals. He was a terrible minister and camapaigns poorly and disingenuously. We can see the whites of his eyes.
Nice guys lose, and we all lose if Dutton and Co get their hands on the treasury benches again.
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What I think the public is looking for is, well the cost of living stuff obviously, but anchored by a much more specific and clear statement that the Australian government is not getting dragged into another middle eastern war.
Hugo you don’t get 51 to 49 to lnp means all hope is lost Anthony Albanese is the worst Prime Minister ever you know all that crazy talk that apparently this group of people say that’s why that’s why I don’t read this forum as much as I Use to
Probably end up with Labor on ~65 seats if this was replicated in an election and they’d probably need teals + Greens to get anything through the lower house.
Albo and Dutton’s personal ratings are equally poor so cancel each other out. Albo probably has more upside if he actually puts forward a more ambitious agenda.
Wouldn’t be surprised if Labor are trial running a few slightly out there policies in the QLD election like free school lunches, an electricity retailer, 50c bus fares seeing as they have nothing to lose to see how they fly with voters with an eye on how they should then setup for the federal election. It’ll be interesting to see if it helps win a few voters back from the Greens and the LNP perhaps.
It’s a nothing poll all things considered and just puts a bit of starch in the collars of the opinion piece “sing for my super” scribblers still demeaning themselves working for the remnant dead tree industry.
Time for a “negroni” spritz to celebrate the return of Lars from holidays.
Hugoaugogo at 9.58 pm
Correct. Little prospect of any significant shift in last 6 weeks of polling this year. Significant polling returns in February.
Quentin Rountreesays:
Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 10:03 pm
Hugo you don’t get 51 to 49 to lnp means all hope is lost Anthony Albanese is the worst Prime Minister ever you know all that crazy talk that apparently this group of people say that’s why that’s why I don’t read this forum as much as I Use to
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Albo isn’t the worst prime minister but his government is underwhelming and is disappointing people that should be Albo’s natural allies because they feel left behind.
It’s pretty much a par for the course result apart from the headline. Get worried if the LNP primary has a 4 in front.
I do not know why I do not like Albo or Dutton. Also the current main figures on both sides do not inspire me. Of the others think some of the teals would be excellent leaders but without a party structure this will not happen. Maybe they should look at the structure of the Ind for ACT who have form a loose party structure of Ind. They could call themselves the Teal Party.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Albo isn’t the worst prime minister but his government is underwhelming and is disappointing people that should be Albo’s natural allies because they feel left behind.
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It’s still better than the last 3 LNP governments. It has a good story to tell but they don’t seem to be getting the credit they deserve from the public. Fcked if I know.
Ditto QR
This site is trash
At this stage we have Labor governing
And the Coalition politicking
When Labor move to politicking look at the agenda they have – from LNP stuff ups corrected to nuclear to Zionism (where even those of Jewish faith are split on the right wing government there – at best)
Then the clown who administers this site as a forum for the idiots who contribute censors, thinking he is Australia’s Musk
dave
It’s still better than the last 3 LNP governments. It has a good story to tell but they don’t seem to be getting the credit they deserve from the public. Fcked if I know.
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Being better than the last 3 LNP governments isn’t that impressive when they were so ordinary but first term governments usually lose a bit of support and COL is hurting the government but the best LNP result is 51-49 and that is good news for the government if they can start selling a second term agenda.
It’s mainly that in the past 25 years, the LNP 2pp vote more often than not whips up 3-5 points during the election campaign. So Labor falling under at this stage more likely than not would result in the LNP winning 53-47 or so in May next year.
Here we go againsays:
Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 10:15 pm
Ditto QR
This site is trash
At this stage we have Labor governing
And the Coalition politicking
When Labor move to politicking look at the agenda they have – from LNP stuff ups corrected to nuclear to Zionism (where even those of Jewish faith are split on the right wing government there – at best)
Then the clown who administers this site as a forum for the idiots who contribute censors, thinking he is Australia’s Musk
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What comments are unfair to the government?
Disregard my previous post that’s the West re-reporting Newspoll.
Why bother posting here HWGA?
Good news for labor the new administration review tribunal begins labor says it replaces the stacked liberal one.
Cannot see how it will stop Asylum seeking students clogging it up they need to go home rental crisis stinging labor.
Anyway the big issue this week is whether Dan Houston can get to Collingwood.
With an election about a year away, I doubt that enough of the electorate has made up their mind. They do appear to be at the mercy of economic conditions though.
On the positives, many indicators for one major source of dissatisfaction in rental prices are predicting steady to decreasing prices from the first quarter next year. The Government has also accumulated surpluses and has the next 12 months to announce a series of spending initiatives, and if they’re clever get money into punters pockets before the election.
Over the next ten months we’ll see if they’re as timid as their detractors have us believe, or whether they’ve constrained themselves due to macroeconomic conditions and/or the political cycle.
Personally I don’t know which of these it is, and will wait before passing judgement.
NathanA says:
The Government has also accumulated surpluses and has the next 12 months to announce a series of spending initiatives, and if they’re clever get money into punters pockets before the election.
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Yeah but the next budget won’t see a surplus so how much can they really spend?
Yeah listen guys I’m just saying maybe don’t run like headless chickens every time they’re statistical noise in a poll it could go for the coalition or it can go for labour so just relax a lot can change in seven months
NathanA at 10.24 pm
Election must be by late May. Not just at the mercy of current economic conditions, but also to a lesser extent at the mercy of Netanyahu’s war at all costs way of retaining power. US policy may not shift until late January if Harris is elected. Still 3 months for Netanyahu to drive up the price of oil a lot. No wonder Dutton is a warmonger.
Typically posters use the 51-49 newspoll to back up their subjective reading of the polls results with nonsense claims like Albos world falling apart after the referendum which was a year ago ffs. Now we get more about how useless and pathetic Labor selling out to corporate Australia, Jews or Muslims, serving the duopoly, losing values once held sacrosanct, weak on climate change and failing in one term to save the world and its global crisis. How about a Coalition Govt then ? Or a Greens govt in fantasy land where 4 seats gives you the keys to the fucking lodge ? Newspoll will have to put out a repeated 52-48 for Dutton before I get too excited Greens and Liberal Noalition supporters. Till then you can keep on telling us how terrible Labor is till your blue or Green in the face and I will keep on ignoring you.
Elmer Fudd
I will keep on ignoring you.
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This is labor’s problem because by not listening labor miss chances to make real policy change sure they can’t fix everything but they could do better.
Hi Dr.D
I got back to you on the Vic Redbridge thread.
It’s true Quentin it’s not a polling movement that in itself really says anything. The trend of the govt has been concerning though over the last year or so and while the declining trend has flattened out a little it’s still in decline so I don’t think Labor should be resting easy. If the trend were to continue until say a May election we probably have numbers very close to indicating a Dutton govt.
https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2025/bludgertrack/
Albo’s biggest mistake regarding the Voice referendum was that he was left struggling and stuttering when things didn’t go his way. He stalled, he was unable to steer it in a new direction, then he crashed. And he has been so far unable to recover things. At the end of last year his media team reported that “They’re slaughtering us” and when asked “How do we combat this?” they answered “We don’t know.” And that seems to have been the situation that’s led up to today.
If he can’t do that then I frankly think he should step aside. If all that stands between Mini-Me Trumpster Dutton becoming PM is Albo in sulky loser mode, at least he can have the self awareness of giving the job to someone who can at least put up a fight.
Or of course Labor can just ignore all of that and keep on doing what they’re doing and skip and jump through a minefield and experience another 9-12 years in opposition.
I mean guys like you’re acting like the poll results 55 to 45 like you know what I’m not even gonna bother commenting you guys want to live in misery you do that Anthony albanesi has time he just needs to use it properly
Nadia88 at 9.46 pm
“Not glamorous for Dutton. …”
Remember Bill Shorten was not glamorous in the polls either, though polling before the 2019 “miracle is over” election had him consistently a nose in front.
Think about federal changes of government in the last 30 years. Appeal of leader isn’t decisive always (e.g. 2013) except when the election is close. Albo in 2022 was not the Messiah type like Rudd, but he didn’t need to be, because ProMo Morrison became perceived as so hollow.
The difference between 2013 and 2025 is Labor unity. There are potential challengers to Albo who will not stalk him because of the horrible Labor own goals before 2013. By contrast Dutton is ensconced because no challengers exist (more precisely the potential challengers are all in his National Right faction and prefer to let him fail slowly).
When was the last time an Opposition leader following a change of government won at his first attempt? Shorten got almost close in 2016 but, as John Clarke put it, a podium finish is a loss in the HoReps.
Thanks for your comments on the Victorian thread. I will try to find a reference to a book by the woman who taught me Russian, Nonna Ryan, whose family came to Australia via Harbin, and put it there to tomorrow.