The Australian reports the latest Newspoll records a two-party lead for the Coalition for the first time since this term, at 51-49 after a 50-50 result three weeks ago, though both major parties are unchanged on the primary vote, Labor at 31% and the Coalition at 38%. The movement is down to a one-point drop for the Greens to 12% and a one-point increase for One Nation to 7%. Anthony Albanese is down three on approval to 40% and up three on disapproval to 54%, edging out past results in August (41% and 54%) and last November (40% and 53%) as his worst net result for the term. Peter Dutton is respectively up one to 38% and steady at 52%, with preferred prime minister narrowing from 46-37 to 45-37. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1258.
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, October 14, 2024 at 8:54 am
“TPOF says:
Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 9:52 pm
Good. I’d rather a Coalition government than a Labor Government at the beck and call of the Green parasites. They may well have poisoned their “hot”.”
Refreshing honesty.
________________________________________
Someone has to call the Greens Party out for the parasites they are.
Been There,
Honestly (just butting in), Jason Clare has a young family and may not be after the big job just yet.
Poll shows the Labor Political Party suffers when the Greens primary drops.
A reasonable position would then be that a strong Green party vote would return a strong Labor 2pp result.
If AnAl’s Labor Political Party had spent the last circa 3 years building positive relationships with the cross bench and making the necessary compromises to their legislation to get it passed we would assuredly have markedly different polls, and a Labor Party with a markedly different reputation (a successful, reforming government, not so bold as Gillard’s but nonetheless).
I’m a big fan of Miles’ populist pork barrelling. They’re exactly the sort of policies and changes you used to expect from a Labor government. The only one I benefit from is the electricity rebate, and my electric account was already in credit prior to those (I use PT once a week, and don’t have kids). The problem is that it is nakedly cynical vote buying. The Labor Party has held the reins for bloody well forever and it takes assured loss of government to see real reform.
Excluded from my appreciation of Miles’ populism is of course their tough on crime rhetoric which will see children (otherwise illegally) detained in prison, further intrenching their disadvantage, and creating the ‘youth crime epidemic’ of the future. I don’t argue that crime isn’t a problem in the north, but using strategies that are known to make it worse is insane.
Have seen a few arguments here and in the press that big data was a flop and whatever else. Ya know that the AI guff now is just big data. Its the same thing – big data was collection of massive amounts of information to use algorithmically for XYZ purpose. AI does the same thing but with better branding.
meher baba:
Monday, October 14, 2024 at 4:06 am
[‘We all always knew deep in our hearts that he wasn’t really up to the job, and so it has turned out.’]
“We” did? Who comprises “we”? The use of a plural subject pronoun in this context is entirely inappropriate. Please don’t purport to speak for me, and I presume many others.
I too am disappointed with the current poll numbers. But, if I may take a different view. My view is that the polls reflect that the government is doing what the population expect for a Labor government. The endless list of achievements is exactly what a) is expected, and b) what advances the community. What is missing is the big reforms/improvements that the community witnessed under Whitlam, Hawker and Keating. On another matter, why have factional ties kept the best economist in a junior portfolio
Alternative link to The telegraph story referring to redbridge;
https://archive.md/AMGr6
Spender & the Coalition attacking workers’ rights in advocating increasing SBE threshold to 25 employees. Would see substantial loss of entitlements owed to those employees on a whim.
Better to advocate for expansion (universally) of provisions like Portable Long Service Leave, and redundancy schemes. Both would lighten the burden on any given employer, while improving the lot of workers.
Thanks C@t.
I thought that may be the case.
I see a lot of potential there.
Figures now in the Red bridge article in the Herald Sun
51/49 to the LNP
Thanks bug1 & laughtong.
I don’t have paywall access so shall wait.
Morning Been There & Mavis.
Morning Nadia
Jeez, one bad – but, let’s fact it, hardly unexpected – poll and the chickens here start running around like Labor partisans with their phone lines to Sussex St cut off.
And then blame William for it.
How amusement 🙂
Good morning, Nadia. Good to see you’re on the job. With both majors on the same PV as before, I don’t see this poll as a harbinger of anything untoward for Labor. And as you’ve said, Labor slightly improved its PV in other polls last week.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/10/13/newspoll-51-49-to-coalition-open-thread/comment-page-2/#comment-4382264
Sorry, I don’t have Murdoch Infotainment, and they seem delayed through the library, to overnight or embargo-ed for longer like the Nine/ FewFacts/ AFR …
He teases very well, and could probably come up with a West Wing style comms plan that would make a difference, as in “Astronomical levels of pessimism”, https://x.com/kossamaras/status/1845569089567399960
No Redbridge Poll in the Herald Sun yet. They are talking about Newspoll.
Player One:
Monday, October 14, 2024 at 10:15 am
[‘And then blame William for it.’]
Yeah, that one from “Here we go again” was something else.
Bloody hell!! Very brave lady.
“ The nation’s top union boss Sally McManus says she lives in multiple places and infrequently leaves home out of security concerns arising from the union movement’s isolation of the embattled Construction, Forestry, and Maritime Employees Union.”
OK.
I’ve located the Accent-Redbridge report here. It’s on the Accent Research site.
Link: https://6b72024e-077a-44e2-88f5-dc1a0ed81099.usrfiles.com/ugd/b86980_9b99ffee18544d55a00ed17c615ce477.pdf
It’s dated today, but the meth statement says it is based on a series of polls between May – Aug this year.
Sample – 4017
Although it has just turned up on it’s site, I don’t think it’s the report Samaras is alluding to, so to be honest I’m actually not too sure what the heck is going on.
Samaras keeps referencing a joint “Redbridge-Accent Research”.
I’ll read the report now anyway. It’s 57 pages long.
A man armed with guns and false press and VIP passes was apprehended by authorities at a campaign rally in California on Saturday being held by Donald Trump.
The suspect, identified as Vem Miller, was intercepted by police at a checkpoint about a half-mile from an entrance to the rally in Coachella Valley, California, soon before the rally began, police said Sunday. “We probably stopped another assassination attempt,” Riverside county sheriff Chad Bianco said, adding that Miller was plotting to kill Trump.
Police said Miller was carrying a loaded shotgun, handgun and high-capacity magazine and is believed to be a member of a rightwing anti-government organization.
Sorry the 51/49 I saw was Newspoll
@Rex: “Husic is the future. Albo is from the past. Labor should rebuild and install Husic as leader.”
Well that’s new, you used to spruik for Chalmers.
‘Oakeshott Country says:
Monday, October 14, 2024 at 9:28 am
Unifil was first deployed to ensure Israel’s withdrawal from Southern Lebanon after the 1978 invasion. It was to monitor and report but not prevent further Israeli incursions of Lebanese sovereignty. It has been spectacularly successful in doing so and has noted Israeli invasions in 1982, 2006 and 2024 just to name a few.
When the US is your sugar daddy, the term “International Law” has a limited meaning.’
======================================
And to ensure Heshbollah’s withdrawal to north of the Litani River.
It failed completely.
As for ‘noting’ invasions. Laughable. Do we need 10,500 people to notice and report an invasion in this day and age?
When Iran is your sugar daddy, the term “International Law” has no meaning at all.
Israel, ditto. Heshbollah, Hamas and the Houthis ditto.
None of them give a flying fuck for humane norms or international institutions, including the ICJ, UN, UNWRA and UNIFIL.
Expecting it of any of them as it would make the slightest difference might be feel good. But that would be about that.
‘Diogenes says:
Monday, October 14, 2024 at 10:28 am
Bloody hell!! Very brave lady.
“ The nation’s top union boss Sally McManus says she lives in multiple places and infrequently leaves home out of security concerns arising from the union movement’s isolation of the embattled Construction, Forestry, and Maritime Employees Union.”’
=======================
Adam Bandt will now step up the plate and declare that the Greens did not really mean to rally with a bunch of criminal thugs.
The cynic has been in full voice lately !
The Gaslighting Parrot is around for another squawk. But today Polly wants a different cracker.
HH
And the police released him on bail! He can’t have been a serious threat.
The link for the 2nd report on their site is here too.
https://www.accent-research.com/projects/the-end-of-the-australian-dream%3F-how-australians-feel-about-housing%2C-opportunities-for-the-next-generation%2C-and-their-own-retirement
Hey michael – good to see you back too. You may find the QLD redbridge blog of interest, especially a poster called “B”. The rest of the blog unfortunately headed down the conspiracy path.
Labor is in power at a time when the lived experience of a large chunk of voting Australians is very morbid and difficult.
The default reaction ? Blame the government ( and fair enough ).
Commentators far and wide can dig through the entrails of any and all blips in polling looking for reasons and causal relationships.
Go for gold all they like. Makes no difference.
Until voters see and feel a uptick in their lived experience nothing much will change. That is the reality. Everything else is noise.
The main question should be will Albanese and the government get any credit when this uptick kicks in ?
Cheers and a great day to all.
@banquo – “I’m a big fan of Miles’ populist pork barrelling.”
I would never have guessed.
The fundamental problem with demands for Federal pork barrelling is that it would have driven inflation, so prices would rise, eating up the benefits people would get from the pork barrelling. People would probably be no better off in actuality even if they might FEEL they got more, AND the government would be out a lot of money.
The Federal government is taking a lot of heat for being responsible. They are very poor at communicating about it, and have no help from a media only interested in amplifying complainers and from Greens and Libs only interested in irresponsible populism, but nonetheless they are the ones being responsible and who will end the cost of living pressures sooner without blowing the budget.
There is no shortcut to ending inflation (not without hard crashing the economy anyway). The Greens and Coalition pretending there is are simply dishonest.
Been Theresays:
Monday, October 14, 2024 at 10:04 am
[Thanks C@t.]
[I thought that may be the case.]
[I see a lot of potential there.]
Ya dreamin’ BT,
They’d eat him alive!
Good guys don’t become good leaders or PMs.
https://www.afr.com/rear-window/qantas-todd-sampson-got-a-proxy-pardon-others-aren-t-so-lucky-20241013-p5khw2, last week it emerged the recent former CEO/ GMD gets 4 international trips (last time I flew Qantas internationally would have been before 2016, and there was one Jetstar to America in 2019) and more domestic trips (I prefer non-Qantas) for another 2 decades, I noticed last week how it isn’t just former PMs with a defined-benefit pension, still getting post-election taxpayer goodies on top
Gosh, the debut of Accent Research into the Australian polling scene is a complete cluster.
The links on their 14-Oct-2024 report backdate to winter this year. There are more links than at a golf course.
Boerwarsays:
Monday, October 14, 2024 at 10:35 am
[The Gaslighting Parrot is around for another squawk. But today Polly wants a different cracker.]
There seems to be a flock of them out and about this morning!
All of them wanting a different flavour cracker.
@Arky – nah boss, that’s cooked. We’re talking redistribution here. Taking heat out of the inflationary top end of town where the big inflationary spending happens, and providing support to the majority. These sorts of policies reduce our bourgeoning wealth gap, improve affordability of the mundane, and reaffirms Queensland and Australia as a SOCIAL democracy that operates for the benefit of its human constituents.
Hi Nadia, I read B’s internal polling info on QLD. If accurate a wipeout there. And B says the QLD LNP are polling 20 key seats and is far more accurate than a statewide poll.
Not sure when Redbridge are passing on their data to Newscorp or what they are going to release. Wait and see.
Cuba does nation-wide pork barreling as the default position.
Home energy is practically free. When you can get it. Blackouts and brownouts are a daily experience.
Home ownership with massive government subsidies is 85%.
Food production is collapsing.
Health is free.
Education is free.
Inflation is around 40%.
Company tax is only 35%.
Since 2021 half a million Cubans have left.
What they badly need is ten years of Albanese/Chalmers to sort them out.
‘VCT Et3e says:
Monday, October 14, 2024 at 10:42 am
https://www.afr.com/rear-window/qantas-todd-sampson-got-a-proxy-pardon-others-aren-t-so-lucky-20241013-p5khw2, last week it emerged the recent former CEO/ GMD gets 4 international trips (last time I flew Qantas internationally would have been before 2016, and there was one Jetstar to America in 2019) and more domestic trips (I prefer non-Qantas) for another 2 decades, I noticed last week how it isn’t just former PMs with a defined-benefit pension, still getting post-election taxpayer goodies on top’
===================
In that spirit Bandt and his colleagues are going to give their houses away to DV victims and Indigenous homeless people, reduce their living space by two thirds, and only live in rented accommodation built on brownfield sites that no NIMBY cares about.
I think it’s fairly quiet today Goll.
I walked into the site blind on Friday night and it was on for young and old.
Anyway, I can’t make head nor tail of this Accent redbridge report. It references swings in diagram manner on pg.13 of the 57 page report. This is not very helpful.
Rather than continuing with my “special clown show” today, I’ll shut up and swing by for morgan this evening. Samaras should reveal everything by days end. Sorry all!
Been There: “Meher Baba
What are your thoughts on Jason Clare as leadership material.
He’s been quite impressive to me the few times he’s fronted the media, particularly during the last election.”
—————————————————-
Yeah, he certainly goes ok in Parliament when I’ve watched it.
I definitely think he has more leadership potential than Chalmers, Marles, Burke or Tanya Plibersek. But my sense is that he is a fair way from the top of the queue.
Thanks be to BK’s Dawn patrol. It really is the only thing worth reading on the site. So many opinionated folks with so little knowledge.
I lurk these days only to see the polling figures. The accompanying commentary is just so predictable.
Rant over.
Mavis: ““We” did? Who comprises “we”? The use of a plural subject pronoun in this context is entirely inappropriate. Please don’t purport to speak for me, and I presume many others.”
——————————————————————————-
Are you saying that you used to think he was up to the job and now don’t?
Or that you still think he is up to the job?
Damning findings from the Accent Research Report:
“Our analysis reveals that just 15 per cent of voters believe that it is possible for young Australians to buy a home without help, fewer than eight per cent say that on average the standard of living will be better for the next generation of Australians and 27 per cent are very confident that their retirement will be financially secure.”
https://x.com/theshovel/status/1845586645216879053, more denial [to the Euphrates River], delay, distract, after oh dears, oopsies, sighs, may be raised eyebrows, …
Sorry to disappoint but there is zero chance that Albanese will not be the leader of Labor in May 2025.
People wondering what big reform Albo could do might want to start looking at what this government has passed up because there’s a big block of voters just sitting there waiting.
‘Socrates says:
Monday, October 14, 2024 at 9:23 am
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. The economy is a mixed bag at present. Lots of external negatives but some good local responses. And lots of spin, which identifies the bias of the spinner more than any actual fact.
Housing is the main problem. Labor’s solution is necessary but not sufficient. It is being punished for that.
Despite the criticism of Albo, it is the Greens vote that has dropped. The Greens have only themselves to blame. They had a bad week. Faced with a historically unpopular PM and LOTO, the Greens spoiling tactics and dubious candidate choices are not winning friends.
So if present trends continue and there is a May 2025 election, Labor will end up in minority and rely on the Teals. They could do a lot worse. If Labor is having trouble getting along with the Greens then they had better learn to deal with the Teals.’
====================
I usually vote tactically in the ACT to ensure that Labor gets its two quotas and that preferencing goes to the Greens. In effect this helped to ensure that the fifth seat in our electorate goes to a Greens rather than to a Liberal.
After all, up to now anything is better than the ACT Liberals who are traditionally the only other alternative beneficiaries of preferencing.
This election the preferences will go to the Independents. Fortunately there is enough class to choose from to get a reasonable outcome for the fifth seat.
I doubt very much I will be the only one.
Are Dutton and Bandt still blocking the biggest Aged Care reform package this century?
They are currently blocking so much it is hard to remember all the logs in their jam.
BW
My understanding, for what it is worth, is that there is a chicken and egg argument. Lacking a functional defence force the unstable alliance of forces that act as the government of Lebanon turn a blind eye to Hezbollah as the only deterrent to Israeli invasion.
Israeli has spent significant time in the past decades occupying southern Lebanon and then supporting the murderous Maronite militias. Assad thinks Lebanon is part of Greater Syria and occupied the Beqaa Valley for more than 30 years and Iran obviously has Hezbollah as its Shia Muslim proxy.
The international community responds by placing UNIFIL to observe and preserve Lebanese sovereignty.
This does raise the question of whether Lebanon is a viable and legitimate entity or just the tail end of France’s divide and rule policy in its League of Nations’ Levant mandate. (The other French statelets were absorbed into Syria during the 1930s)
Boerwar says:
Monday, October 14, 2024 at 11:29 am
I usually vote tactically in the ACT to ensure that Labor gets its two quotas and that preferencing goes to the Greens. In effect this helped to ensure that the fifth seat in our electorate goes to a Greens rather than to a Liberal.
After all, up to now anything is better than the ACT Liberals who are traditionally the only other alternative beneficiaries of preferencing.
This election the preferences will go to the Independents. Fortunately there is enough class to choose from to get a reasonable outcome for the fifth seat.
I doubt very much I will be the only one.
______________________________________
There will be me as well. The ACT Greens aren’t as feral as the national counterparts (that’s what the reality of actually taking responsibility for governing does) but they are not going to get support from me this time or ever as long as the brand values destruction over construction.
It is a guess, but only a guess, that this signals why Israel has yet to respond to Iran’s recent ballistic missile barrage.
Some got through. They have significant explosive power. They were extremely accurate. This was not a matter of randomly blasting apart a few houses in Tel Aviv. The Iranians are in a situation where they can put a warhead on Dimona, the Knesset, Netanyahu’s house or the Med oil refineries.
So Israel has held off up to now. The US is now bringing in the anti-ballistic capacity that the Israeli’s clearly lack.
As I opened the post with, this is only a guess.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/14/hezbollah-drone-attack-on-israel-army-idf-base