Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)

Marginal changes on the primary vote prove sufficient to give the Coalition a two-party lead in Newspoll for the first time this term.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll records a two-party lead for the Coalition for the first time since this term, at 51-49 after a 50-50 result three weeks ago, though both major parties are unchanged on the primary vote, Labor at 31% and the Coalition at 38%. The movement is down to a one-point drop for the Greens to 12% and a one-point increase for One Nation to 7%. Anthony Albanese is down three on approval to 40% and up three on disapproval to 54%, edging out past results in August (41% and 54%) and last November (40% and 53%) as his worst net result for the term. Peter Dutton is respectively up one to 38% and steady at 52%, with preferred prime minister narrowing from 46-37 to 45-37. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1258.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

250 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)”

Comments Page 5 of 5
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  1. 65% of people are involved in either “paying off” a housing loan or own their own home.
    They want house prices to keep rising.
    Labor will offered tax cuts for 90% of taxpayers before the next election.
    Dutton will immediately match the announced tax cut and raise it to 100%.
    Interest rates should come down.
    The Greens will redefine their estranged relationship with Labor. (they are becoming pariahs with their current spoilt brat antics)
    The Teals and Independents will continue to offer an attractive alternative for the disillusioned.
    The improved China trade will be a positive for Labor.
    The NACC “facts of the matter” will be “leaked” to the media and it won’t favour two or three of the current leadership of the LNP.
    The scare campaigns will be “full on”.
    The remnant (we wanna be significant) sunset media will be in “full flight”.
    The ABC is compromised.
    And then there’s the unknowns, a scorching summer, no rain, oil prices and various wars/conflicts.
    Renewable energy is done, is over and won.
    Technology will continue to advance, as will the benefits of using it, resulting in more acceptance as they become within the grasp of many.

    Well played Labor during difficult, changing trying times.

  2. ‘Oakeshott Country says:
    Monday, October 14, 2024 at 11:34 am

    BW
    My understanding, for what it is worth, is that there is a chicken and egg argument. Lacking a functional defence force the unstable alliance of forces that act as the government of Lebanon turn a blind eye to Hezbollah as the only deterrent to Israeli invasion.

    Israeli has spent significant time in the past decades occupying southern Lebanon and then supporting the murderous Maronite militias. Assad thinks Lebanon is part of Greater Syria and occupied the Beqaa Valley for more than 30 years and Iran obviously has Hezbollah as its Shia Muslim proxy.

    The international community responds by placing UNIFIL to observe and preserve Lebanese sovereignty.

    This does raise the question of whether Lebanon is a viable and legitimate entity or just the tail end of France’s divide and rule policy in its League of Nations’ Levant mandate. (The other French statelets were absorbed into Syria during the 1930s)’
    ======================
    Thanks for this reasonable discussion which I appreciate very much.

    I agree that it is complex – and certainly more complex than we can summarize in a post on Bludger. I also accept that within the general rubric of a mutual desire for genocide you end up getting an endless round of chicken and egg.

    In relation to ‘murderous’ I doubt that there is any single player who has not earned that at some time or other. I would leave that adjective out on the basis that we can assume that it is general rather than particular.

    It does not really matter how anyone regards Heshbollah. They do what they want. They killed, threatened and bullied their way to power in Lebanon.

    If UNIFIL achieved anything at all inside Lebanon, it sat around while Lebanon was turned from a functioning democracy into a state de facto controlled by an Islamic despotism.

    I query the framing of Heshbollah as a ‘deterrent’. It implies a passive defensive posture and general intent when what we do know is that Heshbollah is there to destroy Israel and to push the jews into the sea. In other words it was only a matter of time before Heshbollah felt that it had to attack Israel.

    My guess, FWIW, and I recognize I have been 100% wrong in some of my guesses since Oct 7, is that Hamas triggered the latest round of lunacy before Heshbollah was ready.

    As for poor old Lebanon it is subject to a consistent fate over the past couple of millenia: a cockpit, a waystop, a thoroughfare and a proxy for larger forces.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krak_des_Chevaliers

  3. I don’t care for the “Hezbollah Tunnel” scares. Are we seriously suggesting that a sovereign nation that has been invaded and occupied by its neighbours several times, should not defend itself? What a ridiculous and unserious concept.

  4. Bean says:
    Monday, October 14, 2024 at 11:58 am

    I don’t care for the “Hezbollah Tunnel” scares. Are we seriously suggesting that a sovereign nation that has been invaded and occupied by its neighbours several times, should not defend itself? What a ridiculous and unserious concept.’
    ===============
    Heshbollah is not a ‘soverign nation’.

    The deal was that Israel would withdraw south of the border. Which it did.
    And that Heshbollah would stay north of the Litani River. Which it did not.

  5. meher babasays:
    Monday, October 14, 2024 at 8:39 am
    c@t: If you read my post, I wasn’t criticising the concept of lower public transport fares, but the slapdash, unabashedly vote-buying way in which they were implemented.

    The risk of lowering fares in this sort of a way is that the relevant transit authorities will end up being required to cover the impact of the reduced revenue out of their capital and maintenance budgets, which will inhibit expansion to new suburban areas and risk serious systems failures down the track that will be a bugger to fix.

    State governments operate on much tighter budgets than the Feds. If you want to reduce fares, then you’re going to have to find savings in other areas to pay for it: which to my knowledge hasn’t happened in Queensland.

    Of course, one good area to look at would be employee costs and conditions, which are highly generous in most Australian public transport systems. But that’s too risky an area for governments of any stripe to go near: about the only thing worse than a prolonged transport strike for a government’s reputation is a major jail riot, and there hasn’t been one of those for quite a while.
    ===============================================================
    Meher Baba, Labor are funding the Cost of Living measures including the public transport fare cuts from increased taxes and charges on very fat mining companies. The big question around how it will be funded is with the LNP that has promised to keep the Cost of Living measures while ditching the mining taxes. So how are they going to fund them! Crisafulli has questions to answer.
    Also, a number of LNP figures have thrown in with Katter on new restrictions on availability of abortion. Why won’t Crisafulli reveal the LNP’s position/plan?

  6. Bean says:
    Monday, October 14, 2024 at 11:58 am
    I don’t care for the “Hezbollah Tunnel” scares. Are we seriously suggesting that a sovereign nation that has been invaded and occupied by its neighbours several times, should not defend itself? What a ridiculous and unserious concept.

    _____________________________________________

    I’m sure you don’t think that claim applies to Israel, which has been and continues to be under threat of attacks on its soil from surrounding and nearby countries. But then you don’t think there should be a Jewish state and therefore Israel does not count.

  7. Banquo, please Explainer to me how portable long service leave would lighten the burden on any given employer. The employer I’d like to hear about is the “receiving” employer – the one with a choice of hiring a young person with no existing earned entitlements and an old one with substantial leave entitlements from a folding business.

  8. @banquo – “@Arky – nah boss, that’s cooked. We’re talking redistribution here. Taking heat out of the inflationary top end of town where the big inflationary spending happens, and providing support to the majority”

    Ah. MAGIC pork barrelling.

    Go ahead, explain your policies.

    God knows even the Greens haven’t enunciated policies alleged to do this so this ought to be good.

  9. Latest from Dutton and crew:

    Today marks one year since Australians emphatically rejected Labor’s divisive Voice referendum.

    Anthony Albanese wasted 18 months and $450 million of taxpayer money talking down to Australians and dividing our country.

    But on 14 October 2023, Australians said ‘no’.

    And, by saying ‘no,’ Australians saved our constitution and saved our country.

    Australians saved our country from permanent division.

    Australians saved our country from being held permanently captive by activists, across all aspects of public policy.

    And Australians saved our country from the permanent paralysis, risk and uncertainty the Voice would have created.

    Thank you to those who helped prevent the Voice becoming a reality.

    The Albanese Government is bad enough, but can you imagine the mess Australia would be in today if we failed?

    But Anthony Albanese refuses to accept he got it wrong.

    He’s still spending your money to establish a Makarrata Commission.

    And he’s still committed to the Uluru Statement and Treaty.

    He just wants to get through the election without talking about it, and scrape into a second term.

    But it gets worse.

    It’s becoming clear that a re-elected Labor Government would be a Labor-Greens activist minority government.

    If that happens, the type of chaos, risk, uncertainty and division our country avoided with the Voice would become very real.

    We, as Australians, cannot let that happen.

  10. BW
    I select out the Maronite “Lebanese Forces” as murderous for their role in the Sabra and Shatila refugee camp massacres. They were acting as proxies for the IDF in its 1982 attempt to “root out” the “Palestinian Terrorists”. The world was shocked at the time but it looks like small beer compared to this year’s attempt at a final solution.

  11. Not one for killing off a government or a PM after 1 poll against them.

    I also dont proscribe to the opinion the Voice led to this set of polling, I agree it was the last interest rate rise (well the series of them really). I hear people say the S3 tax cuts disappeared without a trace, but they didnt really, they just mean things didnt get really really bad for a whole swath of people. This is important to note because sometimes not going forwards and treading water is as powerful as not going backwards in political terms.

    Seven institutes cut interest rates late last week. The big 4 have dropped the rates on term deposits, and it is possible to find fixed term mortgages at rates below the current variable rate. The interest rates drop the government and Australia has been waiting for are coming. I’m going to say the polling after that will stabilize or go back towards Labor by a point.

  12. @TPOF to Bean “But then you don’t think there should be a Jewish state and therefore Israel does not count. ”

    Yeah, the real dispute underneath it all.

    A lot of the arguments have that underneath it but the people making them having varying comfort levels with saying the quiet part out loud. Some are very open about it. One can’t really argue about someone with the “Israel is illegitimate and shouldn’t exist at all” one state attitude. And of course the same is true of someone with a mindset of no Palestinian state existing.

    The situation will only be solved with all such people out of power, which means those who think that way (either direction) and offer support to such people are part of the problem.

  13. Luigi Smith @ #208 Monday, October 14th, 2024 – 12:42 pm

    Banquo, please explain to me how portable long service leave would lighten the burden on any given employer. The employer I’d like to hear about is the “receiving” employer – the one with a choice of hiring a young person with no earned entitlements and an old one with substantial leave entitlements from a folding business.

    The research points to this being a cost neutral approach. Workers are more mobile these days than at any time in history. Workers in/workers out, after an initial short term spike the flow of LSL equalizes as well. Whole swaths of people bank LSL for a rainy day and never actually take it unless forced to. A smart government can run a short term (say 5 years) compensation scheme for employers, front loaded to flatten out that spike.

    From a workers perspective due to the mobility of the jobs these days many can go their entire careers without getting to use LSL, particularly if their employers use the 10 year rule which is still fairly standard. This has been a side effect of neolib hyper capitalism which has seend the whittling of entitlements by stealth.

  14. steve davis @ #259 Monday, October 14th, 2024 – 12:52 pm

    Latest from Dutton and crew:

    Today marks one year since Australians emphatically rejected Labor’s divisive Voice referendum.

    Anthony Albanese wasted 18 months and $450 million of taxpayer money talking down to Australians and dividing our country.

    But on 14 October 2023, Australians said ‘no’.

    And, by saying ‘no,’ Australians saved our constitution and saved our country.

    Australians saved our country from permanent division.

    Australians saved our country from being held permanently captive by activists, across all aspects of public policy.

    And Australians saved our country from the permanent paralysis, risk and uncertainty the Voice would have created.

    Thank you to those who helped prevent the Voice becoming a reality.

    The Albanese Government is bad enough, but can you imagine the mess Australia would be in today if we failed?

    But Anthony Albanese refuses to accept he got it wrong.

    He’s still spending your money to establish a Makarrata Commission.

    And he’s still committed to the Uluru Statement and Treaty.

    He just wants to get through the election without talking about it, and scrape into a second term.

    But it gets worse.

    It’s becoming clear that a re-elected Labor Government would be a Labor-Greens activist minority government.

    If that happens, the type of chaos, risk, uncertainty and division our country avoided with the Voice would become very real.

    We, as Australians, cannot let that happen.

    Exactly why ALP are struggling.
    Dutton has been campaigning constantly why Albo has been trying to govern

  15. Holdenhillbilly @ #169 Monday, October 14th, 2024 – 10:29 am

    Armed man arrested near Trump’s California rally was plotting to kill him, police say

    Suspect, with guns and false VIP passes, apprehended by authorities about half-mile from entrance to Coachella rally
    Edward Helmore
    Mon 14 Oct 2024 09.47 AEDT

    A man armed with guns and false press and VIP passes was apprehended by authorities at a campaign rally in California on Saturday being held by Donald Trump.
    The suspect, identified as Vem Miller, was intercepted by police at a checkpoint about a half-mile from an entrance to the rally in Coachella Valley, California, soon before the rally began, police said Sunday. “We probably stopped another assassination attempt,” Riverside county sheriff Chad Bianco said, adding that Miller was plotting to kill Trump.
    Police said Miller was carrying a loaded shotgun, handgun and high-capacity magazine and is believed to be a member of a rightwing anti-government organization.

    Police said Miller was carrying a loaded shotgun, handgun and high-capacity magazine and is believed to be a member of a rightwing anti-government organization

    But guess who the Right Wing and Trump will blame? 🙄

  16. I see herr Potato Fuhrer left out any mention of Labor governing with the support of the Teals for Confidence and Supply, in the event of a Minority Labor government.

    And what’s wrong with a Centre Left/Centre Right alliance ‘activist government’ anyway? Better than an Ultra Right Wing ‘activist government’ which Dutton would lead. Heaven help us.

  17. Luigi Smithsays:
    Monday, October 14, 2024 at 1:02 pm
    Ah, so the government pays to make it work. Thought so.
    __________________________________
    Nah. Same as how the current portable schemes work. Employers make regular contributions to the LSL fund throughout the tenure of their employee’s employment. The ‘receiving employer’ is only liable to pay for the period of LSL accrued for the period that they have been employing that person. The rest has been paid by their previous employer/s.

  18. Labor’s special envoy for social cohesion Peter Khalil had an “unknown liquid” poured into his electorate office, and protesters damaged a door and painted graffiti, Victorian Police said.
    Vandals painted a red inverted triangle – a symbol associated with Hamas – on a door to Mr Khalil’s electorate office, and wrote “land back” and “glory to the martyrs” on walls, the ABC reported.
    “It is understood paint was sprayed on the building on Sydney Road and a door was damaged between 2am and 9am,” a police statement said. “Officers were told offenders poured an unknown liquid through the door.

  19. This is the last section of an article by Barry Jones in the weekend just gone from the Saturday Paper. Barry was a minister in the Hawke/Keating government and ALP national president. The first 80% of the article is about leadership and the US. But this last section is probably the most insightful and local commentary coming from inside the party. And as a party insider I wonder what Barry’s goal is here in having his thoughts stated so openly. Nudging Albo to change or laying out the case for leadership change?

    Anthony Albanese, originally a leftwing fi rebrand in the time when factions still had an ideological base, was deeply influenced by the wisdom of Tom Uren, who survived his horrific period as a prisoner of war with a strong commitment to peace and reconciliation.

    Albanese was a very effective minister and leader in the House under Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, and was deeply distressed by the breakdown of the Rudd–Gillard relationship. Becoming leader of the ALP in 2019 may have seemed a greater prize than the prime ministership in 2022. His considerable skills are largely internal and hence invisible.

    He is an exceptionally gifted cabinet and caucus manager and the party has had less personal and factional disruption under him than any high-achieving leader since Keating. For a politician, he is unusually devoid of vanity. If he has a weakness, it is wanting to be loved – hence his presence at the wedding of Kyle Sandilands, his acting as an occasional disc jockey and his toe-curling adulation of Narendra Modi in Sydney.

    He was self-effacing during the 2023 referendum on the Voice, convinced the “Yes” campaign must not be seen as being driven by government. This proved to be a serious mistake and the prime minister was deeply shaken by the emphatic “No” vote. Sadly, he fails in advocacy, which had been the great strength of Whitlam, Hawke and Keating. He is also unusually honest for a party leader. As opposition leader, apprehensive about being “wedged” on national security issues and taxation, he agreed that Labor would support the AUKUS submarine deal, although he must have recognised it as a crock. He also endorsed the stage three tax cuts introduced by Scott Morrison, despite their lack of equity and the fact they would deny essential funds for health, aged care, education, climate change and the environment. Albanese was very resistant to modifying the tax cuts, but when it happened it was strongly supported throughout Australia. He is still uneasy about reforms to negative gearing or tackling the gambling monster. We are stuck with the submarines, which will arrive at an unknown date with an unknown cost, almost certainly after they have become obsolete, and with no repayment of Australia’s investment if the deal falls over.

    Albanese appears to be strikingly lacking in ambition. I am convinced that making some bold decisions, and explaining them, would strengthen his prime ministership significantly. He could begin by bringing Tanya Plibersek in from the cold, experimenting with democracy inside the ALP, tackling the corrosive causes of Australia’s gambling obsession, and addressing our grossly unequal education system.

  20. C@tmommasays:
    Monday, October 14, 2024 at 1:09 pm
    I see herr Potato Fuhrer left out any mention of Labor governing with the support of the Teals for Confidence and Supply, in the event of a Minority Labor government.
    _____________________
    Well they better keep their job options open, as they will be booted out at the end of the term.

  21. Luigi Smith @ #216 Monday, October 14th, 2024 – 1:02 pm

    Ah, so the government pays to make it work. Thought so.

    Thats what you took from my comment?

    But I see banquo911 put forward a sensible alternative. That any worker in Australia is against portable LSL probably means they already have it via working in the federal public service or uni sector and they are a Tory, or that they are trotting out talking points by the neolibs (ie they are a bad faith Tory).

  22. My specific question was about an employer receiving an older employee from a folding business. You know the ones: that the ATO already has to pursue for failure to pay the SGC.

  23. It’s not that I think Israel ‘shouldn’t exist’, it’s that they should stop what they are doing. A government which acts in the way it does should be isolated and removed from the world political stage, like the world did with South Africa. If they can prove they can behave maybe we can let them back in.

    You can’t also actively support hardline islamic militants and then cry when they attack you. We saw this in the USA with 9/11. Most of the world saw how ridiculous the American interventions were and how they destabilised the region and accomplished very little of anything positive for the ME, the USA or the world in terms of global safety, and I don’t see anything in the last year of war that points to any positive outcome for anybody, whether in Israel, the USA, Europe, the Middle East, and least of all Palestine.

    Probably the most problematic for the country is that it has eroded what used to be its greatest strength. Israel used to be a country that was a friend to all. People from all over the spectrum, from far-left to far-right could see something worth preserving in the idea, but the cultural shift towards one of extremism and ethno-nationalism has tarnished that image, the continued war has made them a pariah state, and while I’m sure that’s only temporary and every country will be lining up to clap them on the back if the war ever ends, it also sows the seeds of a negative perception among voters in democratic nations which may one day shift policy to meet public public demand in a close election.

  24. OC

    The world was shocked at the time but it looks like small beer compared to this year’s attempt at a final solution

    —————————-

    You forgot to add the swastika

  25. Mostly Interestedsays:
    Monday, October 14, 2024 at 1:14 pm

    This is the last section of an article by Barry Jones in the weekend just gone from the Saturday Paper. Barry was a minister in the Hawke/Keating government and ALP national president. The first 80% of the article is about leadership and the US. But this last section is probably the most insightful and local commentary coming from inside the party. And as a party insider I wonder what Barry’s goal is here in having his thoughts stated so openly. Nudging Albo to change or laying out the case for leadership change?

    Anthony Albanese, originally a leftwing fi rebrand in the time when factions still had an ideological base, was deeply influenced by the wisdom of Tom Uren, who survived his horrific period as a prisoner of war with a strong commitment to peace and reconciliation.

    Albanese was a very effective minister and leader in the House under Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, and was deeply distressed by the breakdown of the Rudd–Gillard relationship. Becoming leader of the ALP in 2019 may have seemed a greater prize than the prime ministership in 2022. His considerable skills are largely internal and hence invisible.

    He is an exceptionally gifted cabinet and caucus manager and the party has had less personal and factional disruption under him than any high-achieving leader since Keating. For a politician, he is unusually devoid of vanity. If he has a weakness, it is wanting to be loved – hence his presence at the wedding of Kyle Sandilands, his acting as an occasional disc jockey and his toe-curling adulation of Narendra Modi in Sydney.

    He was self-effacing during the 2023 referendum on the Voice, convinced the “Yes” campaign must not be seen as being driven by government. This proved to be a serious mistake and the prime minister was deeply shaken by the emphatic “No” vote. Sadly, he fails in advocacy, which had been the great strength of Whitlam, Hawke and Keating. He is also unusually honest for a party leader. As opposition leader, apprehensive about being “wedged” on national security issues and taxation, he agreed that Labor would support the AUKUS submarine deal, although he must have recognised it as a crock. He also endorsed the stage three tax cuts introduced by Scott Morrison, despite their lack of equity and the fact they would deny essential funds for health, aged care, education, climate change and the environment. Albanese was very resistant to modifying the tax cuts, but when it happened it was strongly supported throughout Australia. He is still uneasy about reforms to negative gearing or tackling the gambling monster. We are stuck with the submarines, which will arrive at an unknown date with an unknown cost, almost certainly after they have become obsolete, and with no repayment of Australia’s investment if the deal falls over.

    Albanese appears to be strikingly lacking in ambition. I am convinced that making some bold decisions, and explaining them, would strengthen his prime ministership significantly. He could begin by bringing Tanya Plibersek in from the cold, experimenting with democracy inside the ALP, tackling the corrosive causes of Australia’s gambling obsession, and addressing our grossly unequal education system.

    _______________________

    I’m curious about what is meant by “experimenting with democracy”? Perhaps a question for you actual members, but I thought 50% of everything has union say? What is the rank and file culture when not filtered through union alignment?

  26. Luigi Smith @ #226 Monday, October 14th, 2024 – 1:19 pm

    My specific question was about an employer receiving an older employee from a folding business. You know the ones: that the ATO already has to pursue for failure to pay the SGC.

    Well yeah sure, those exist. But what proportion of workers from such failed business are we talking here? Enough to sink a whole nation moving to policy which is very very good for workers?

    To get a sense of scale, ie how small this might be, in 2022-23 the ATO recovered $1.13B in unpaid super by the SGC. That is out of a total of $144B banked by businesses into employees accounts in the same year.

    So yes what you are saying is a thing, but it is a very very small thing and should not stop such a policy.

  27. Anyway, I don’t really want to post about the whole ME thing, I only get involved to bring context that I think is missing to what I see people saying here. My feelings towards Israel do not extend to Jewish people, I used to be obsessed with Kabbalah back when I was a teen, and I feel the attitude towards life and afterlife has some affinity with my own. I’ve had a trip lined up for years to go to Ethiopia which has unfortunately been delayed by war on multiple occasions to learn their history and see what remains of Beta Israel.

    Unfortunately, growing up during 9/11 I saw a lot of racism, I mean a lot, and being Aboriginal, I copped a lot of it from Aussies too. I simply don’t stand for it, I’ve turfed out so many people that used to be my friends, I even was punished at work for refusing to serve a customer who was being racist to my co-worker and calling them slurs. When I see the apartheid, I simply cannot morally abide by it or justify it in any way. If there is a racist nation out there in the world, then things must be done to either correct or dismantle it. It used to be that this was a popular opinion, Serbia learned that lesson, but now suddenly it’s not because they are our ‘allies’ (whom kill our citizens). It’s doesn’t sit right with me, so I oppose it.

    So, I’m going to try not to post so much about this. I just saw the Hezbollah tunnel propaganda and couldn’t help but laugh at the absurdity of it.

  28. Of course the government ends up paying, Banquo. So the cloud-cuckoo-land assertions about it being business cost neutral were already known to be frogshit when you wrote it. This is just another Green magicnomics proposal that costs the economy more at the expense of other current costs and/or inflation.

  29. Barry Jones was one of the sharpest Labor intellectuals in his day and what he thinks about the Government Labor leads now probably has some value but this should be kept in house and not a public execution style OP peice. Bringing Tanya back in from the cold tells more about Jones motives and agenda than anything else. Your not helping Jonesy, pull your head in mate.

  30. Bizzcan @ #228 Monday, October 14th, 2024 – 1:25 pm

    I’m curious about what is meant by “experimenting with democracy”? Perhaps a question for you actual members, but I thought 50% of everything has union say? What is the rank and file culture when not filtered through union alignment?

    It’s hard to know what Barry means, as a member of the Labor party I know shockingly little about the history of party political factional games. But I have been inside Greens branch meetings when I was a member of them, and obviously multiple Labor branch meetings across the country and I say the following with love.

    Branch members are crackers. They have cracker ideas and think their party should have policies which are crackers. Much of what I have seen internally by the Greens and Labor is to politely nod, get a motion passed locally, and let the cracker ideas die a death that is quite and dignified.

    The serious pathway for Labor members to get policy up democratically within the party is to put it to the standing policy committee, get it out of that into the platform committee, and then to convention. It is a rigorous processes and 95% of ideas dont get through, but it is democratic, you just need to be on the committees to vote. Most members never put up their hands to be on these committees, so like all democracy, if you’re not involved you’re not influencing the outcome.

  31. @Bean

    I rarely post here as trying to change the mind or opinions of the comfortable, elderly, terminally-online centrists here is as close to an impossible task as one can imagine, but I have to say that you’ve summed up one of the core reasons many people react viscerally to the crimes of the Israeli regime – lived experience of racism, apartheid and colonialism colours the lens through which one views the world, and often enhances the clarity. Thank you for your contribution and I’m sorry to hear of the shit you constantly have to endure.

    There’s a reason why so many Scots, Irish, South Africans, First Nations people and innumerable others who have lived through the pain and torment of oppression and colonisation react so strongly to Israeli aggression. And it’s also one of the reasons they can spot Imperialist propaganda and narrative-building a mile off.

    Viva Palestina

  32. Where is the idea that Tanya P is “out in the cold” coming from exactly?

    Does Jones consider Environment to be an insignificant portfolio?

  33. Bruce’s lawyer reckons he’s the most hated man in Australia. I doubt that, but if he had kept his pecker in his pants and stayed away from the Liberal Party he wouldn’t be in the predicament he is in now.

  34. Sne: “I rarely post here as trying to change the mind or opinions of the comfortable, elderly, terminally-online centrists here is as close to an impossible task as one can imagine, but I have to say that you’ve summed up one of the core reasons many people react viscerally to the crimes of the Israeli regime – lived experience of racism, apartheid and colonialism colours the lens through which one views the world, and often enhances the clarity. Thank you for your contribution and I’m sorry to hear of the shit you constantly have to endure.
    There’s a reason why so many Scots, Irish, South Africans, First Nations people and innumerable others who have lived through the pain and torment of oppression and colonisation react so strongly to Israeli aggression. And it’s also one of the reasons they can spot Imperialist propaganda and narrative-building a mile off.
    Viva Palestina”
    ——————————————————————————
    Yep, the Scots and the Irish have had a horrendous lived experience of racism.

    The Jewish people on the other hand have had an unbelievably easy run for two thousand years, especially in the last century or so. What on earth would they have to complain about?

    FFS!

  35. meher baba @ #237 Monday, October 14th, 2024 – 1:54 pm

    Where is the idea that Tanya P is “out in the cold” coming from exactly?

    Does Jones consider Environment to be an insignificant portfolio?

    Oh come on MB, I know you’re not that naive. Tanya has been on the outer now since 2019. She’s a Shorten Gal. It’s a bit of a shame as I think she’s a good operator and Labor would be better with her front and center.

  36. Looks like we are on the cusp of a major war in the Middle East with the US directly involved. This is exactly as Netanyahu wants, to take advantage of a semi senile President who will support Israel to the hilt. This missile battery has been brought to Israel to take part in a future war that is clearly being planned.

  37. Luigi Smithsays:
    Monday, October 14, 2024 at 1:43 pm
    Of course the government ends up paying, Banquo. So the cloud-cuckoo-land assertions about it being business cost neutral were already known to be frogshit when you wrote it. This is just another Green magicnomics proposal that costs the economy more at the expense of other current costs and/or inflation.
    ________________
    Sure dude, the government ‘ends up paying’ in, just like they are literally already paying. Your scenario is very much edge case – the vast majority of business are and remain solvent. The cost of a portable redundancy and LSL scheme would be pittance compared to other schemes, in relation to insolvent businesses specifically, would help to reduce reliance on Jobseeker.

  38. Bruce’s lawyer reckons he’s the most hated man in Australia. I doubt that, but if he had kept his pecker in his pants and stayed away from the Liberal Party he wouldn’t be in the predicament he is in now.
    _______
    Will he play his ace card and call Janet Albrechtsen as a character witness?

  39. Bean says:
    Monday, October 14, 2024 at 11:58 am
    I don’t care for the “Hezbollah Tunnel” scares. Are we seriously suggesting that a sovereign nation that has been invaded and occupied by its neighbours several times, should not defend itself?

    Hezbollah is not the Lebanese Army. Your statement demonstrates an almost complete lack of knowledge of the situation – it is an embarrassment. What Hezbollah has done is direct defiance of the Lebanese.

  40. @meher baba

    The Jewish people deserve places to shield and protect themselves from the horrific crimes they’ve been subjected to throughout history, crimes which have most often been at the hands not of Muslims, Arabs, Turks, or Persians but European Christians.

    They do not, however, with the support of those same European Christians get to displace or ethnically-cleanse a people who have had nothing to do historically with their suffering for the mind-numbingly idiotic reason that Jewish people *may* have lived in that rough area 5000 years ago.

    End of.

  41. meher baba, Jewish people certainly have copped terrible hostility over the centuries, and a significant reason was that until relatively recent times major christian religeons blamed them for the death of Jesus Christ.

    I continually wonder how the world would be a far better place if men hadn’t invented religion.

  42. MI: “Tanya has been on the outer now since 2019. She’s a Shorten Gal. ”
    ——————————————————-
    Nope, I’ve never heard that, and I have some inside sources.

    Tanya comes from the same faction as Albo, although – partly through her husband – she has tended to have a better relationship with the NSW Labor Right than does Albo. I’ve never heard anything about her having any ties to Shorten. It’s a while back, but I note that she did not follow Shorten into voting for Rudd Mark 2 in 2013.

    Perhaps there is an issue around the media periodically trying to beat up the idea that she has her eyes set on Albo’s job, but surely Albo would realise that this is a load of garbage.

    I have never had the sense that they are particularly close, but that’s not the same thing as Tanya being put out in the cold.

  43. Sne: “They do not, however, with the support of those same European Christians get to displace or ethnically-cleanse a people who have had nothing to do historically with their suffering for the mind-numbingly idiotic reason that Jewish people *may* have lived in that rough area 5000 years ago.”
    —————————————————————————–
    You’re really struggling with history. Perhaps you should switch to accounting or pure maths.

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