Following a week in which abortion unexpectedly took centre stage of the Queensland election campaign, The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports the issue “has helped Labor’s cause in Brisbane, where it faces losses to the LNP and the Greens”. The evidence for this would appear to be Labor internal polling suggesting Grace Grace is well placed to retain the Greens target of McConnel, outpolling them 27% to 24% with the LNP on 34%. This is quite a bit different from polling the column published from a different source last week, which had the Greens on 37.9%, the LNP on 27.4% and Labor on 27.2%. A “senior Labor insider” is further quoted saying a party that feared a near wipeout regionally, leaving it only with Gladstone outside of Brisbane, now sees “glimmers of hope in Cairns, Rockhampton and Maryborough”.
The other big event for the week was the closure of nominations and ballot paper draws, revealing a decline in the total number of candidates to 525 (5.6%) from 597 (6.4%) in 2020. A breakdown from Antony Green shows Labor, the LNP, the Greens and One Nation are contesting all seats, Family First is putting in its biggest effort in some time with 59 candidates, with lesser numbers from Legalise Cannabis, Katter’s Australian Party, Animal Justice and the Libertarians.
Also of note: the website Australian Election Forecasts, operating off an admittedly shallow pool of data, calculates an 85.8% chance the LNP will have a “clear path to government” compared with 4.4% for Labor, the median predicted outcome being 55 seats for the LNP, 29 for Labor, three each for the Greens and Katter’s Australian Party and one independent.
What’s the name of the Labor candidate for Premier?
I have trouble remembering. 🙂
A bit snarky there Meher… you cannot expect him to remember the candidate names for all 93 electorates – esp in seats where theyre not expected to win.
However if campaigning in the seat – as is the case – yes, its not a good look. But at the end of the day hes only human.
There is a feeling that the abortion issue is resonating,not just because of abortion as an issue but also it focusses attention on the small target LNP and whether you can really trust them. The LNPs pitch has been to agree with most of the ALPs more popular measures but stress that crime is out of control ( which is highly contestable) and that they will be tougher than Labor and fix the problem. I’ve seen the polls and cannot argue with them but I’ve had doubts all along that this small target strategy would stand up when the heat is on. When Katter and co. wedged Crisifulli on abortion the cracks began to show. One ALP source quoted by the guardian said he thought Brisbane voters saw the state LNP as whackos. I cannot see a way for the ALP to win with many regional seats likely to fall but if things keep going their way it may well be a more respectable loss than many forecast. If so Miles surprisingly good performance in the debate might be where it turned around.
If Miles can reduce the size of the defeat down to a level that Labor has some of its furniture still intact and it’s in decent shape for the 2028 election, that’d be a good result in the circumstances!
I’m not sure that forgetting the name of the Labor candidate for a certain seat will matter that much in the greater scheme of things!
Youth crime as ever is the big problem for Labor, I guess it’ll cost them all their seats in the Townsville area for instance. But if they can retain the seats of Maryborough and Cairns and a few others in regional Qld, and try and hold most of their Brisbane electorates, that’d be OK, given that most predictions have been for a 2012 like wipeout.
Miles I actually don’t mind, but the real performer on their side is Cameron Dick.
Just looking at that poll quoted by WB from the Oz per McConnel.
For non QLD’ers – McConnel encompasses the Brisbane CBD, the inner north & the valley.
Comparison figures from the 2020 election.
* LNP 32% (up 1)
* ALP 27% (down 8.5)
* GRN 24% (interestingly down 4)
* Others 17% (up 11.5)
So, if true, then there is no movement from ALP to LNP.
There are 5 candidates in the seat this time – ALP/LNP/GREEN/FF & PHON. (Note, no Cannabis or other minor left party)
I can’t see the ALP primary dropping 8.5% given they have nowhere else to park their first preference. I can’t feasibly see ALP voters parking their primary with PHON or FF.
Without seeing the poll Questions, i’d say there was a Q asking respondents if they were going to “vote for someone else”, not knowing that “someone else” is Pauline or Family First.
I don’t think this is a particularly reliable poll.
Abortion is poison as an issue.Suggest libs dump agreement with Katter party asap .
They can win without them.prepoll almost here.
It is always interesting when arch conservatives get cornered their immediate reaction is bullshit. These are the people who reckon we should live by their rules, including the 10 commandments, one of which says something about truth telling.
It’s not just the Mad Katters Pied, hard right religious loons are talking over state branches everywhere. If the Libs want to have long prospects there will have to be a split.
Im interested to see what Newspoll and Essential have as a State Wide poll. We know the Seat Polls are unreliable and at the same time, in such a diverse State like Qld – even a statewide poll has flaws because what people vote on in the City is different to outer suburbs, which are again different to regional centres…. fun times ahead.
We should have a state based YouGov shortly.
Newspoll may drop a state based poll on election eve.
Forgetting a candidates name in a Sunshine coast seat that even Beattie wouldn’t have been able to nab is not a big deal, just a journos gotcha. Abortion however will change votes and also focus people on whether the LNP can be trusted or are worth a punt. The LNP is not the Liberal party, it was in many ways a country party takeover and many city people think they are whackos. Let’s not forget that polls show COL as far and away the biggest issue, crime ranks way behind. If these issues turn votes in Brisbane and some regional seats maybe there will be a fair bit of furniture left.
Rockhampton is a bit of a tough one to predict, in that it’s likely to be split three ways between the LNP, ALP and a strong independent candidate in Margaret Stelow. You wouldn’t think the ALP would have much of a chance, and i had thought Strelow would largely take votes from the ALP, but the ALP clearly thinks they are in with a shout given how heavily the leadership have been campaigning in Rocky. It seems they have given up on Townsville and Mackay.
I still think the LNP will sweep the seats in Townsville, Mackay and Rockhampton including Keppel.
The amnesia seat is Mirani, about 600 k N of Sunny Coast.
If Crisafulli won’t put Katter back in his box during the campaign, the Government will be a shambles from Day 1..
If no Party gets a majority, Katter will put Labor back into Government anyway.
Interesting that Family First have reformed, this time Labor are behind it, no doubt looking to snare some clueless antiabortion votes and funnel them to the ALP.
Variation of the 1998 State Election campaign, where Labor and One Nation successfully campaigned on the issue of National Party voting for Howard’s Gun confiscation [even though it had been Labor Policy since the 1960s] and the National Party vote collapsed.
Hey Badthinker,
Where have you found that Family First is being backed by Labor. Your link pls.
I’ve just checked the FF Qld website, and it couldn’t be more hostile to Labor.
Link: https://www.familyfirstparty.org.au/family_first_announces_14_candidates_for_queensland_election_more_to_come
nadia88says:
Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 10:37 am
Hey Badthinker,
Where have you found that Family First is being backed by Labor. Your link pls.
I’ve just checked the FF Qld website, and it couldn’t be more hostile to Labor.
Link: https://www.familyfirstparty.org.au/family_first_announces_14_candidates_for_queensland_election_more_to_come
=============================================================
Hi Nadia,
Best to ignore anything Badthinker says.
99% is made up rubbish. Will do your head in.
If no Party gets a majority, Katter will put Labor back into Government anyway.
@Badthinker
Bob Katter backed the federal coalition in 2010 and 2016. I’m not sure why you would think Katter Australia Party would choose Queensland state Labor over the LNP to form government. They only pretend to be open minded to appeal to some of their regional working class voters who vote for KAP. And also use it as a bargaining chip with the LNP, to avoid the LNP thinking they will get KAP support by default. The only scenario where KAP will form with Labor over LNP if it’s not pragmatic to form with the LNP. For example LNP don’t have the numbers and would have to rely on the Greens along with KAP to form government. Even then the Greens wouldn’t form with the LNP, and KAP wouldn’t go for this scenario anyway.
Always good to stir him up e.g.w. & hold him to account.
He’s ok & he’s usually up a for a laugh every so often.
Good pick up.
So you’re saying that the poll conducted in McConnel might have had only simple choices along the lines of Labor/LNP/Greens or someone else, and that some Labor voters last time may want to send a message to the gov’t by voting for “someone else”, not knowing that “someone else” is Pauline Hanson. Surely the pollster would have fully listed all the parties for credibility. I’ve read the article which appears on page 5 of the Weekend Australian…. and “leaked”.
Few things
1. Seat polls are far more reliable.
2. The LNP are now polling 20 seats up from 14. Last week they polled 2 times. From the results it’s a 60/40 2pp.
3. From my chats with Labor insiders their internal polls are showing 56/44 to 60/40 (the larger ones came at the end of last week). Ps the abortion issue hasn’t moved the needle except in a couple of electorates such as McConnell and Cooper. They have basically conceded that they need to sandbag Miles seat because he’s likely to lose otherwise. Same with Fentiman.
4. They also said that they’ve given away Cairns, Townsville etc. They’ve alarmed basically given up on the idea of getting back the seat they lost in the by-election.
They are presently thinking high teens as a seat count post election.
Thanks B.
Good wrap up
In pt 3 – re: the 60/40. Is that 2PP state overall or confined to Nth Qld.
Per final tally for the ALP – I’ve suggested 12-18 previously.
There was a local report recently that Fentiman may be in trouble.
Nadia88. Statewide. I think it’s most likely low 20s
Thanks paul A
A bit of word salad on my behalf. Apologies.
Per that poll for McConnel; I’m probably a bit curious that it’s showing an ALP primary swing of 8%, yet looking at the candidate list, the only place that vote can go is to FF or PHON.
I just can’t see inner city Labor voters, moving their vote to these two groups. Maybe rural, but not inner city types.
I’d be interested to see the options the pollster provided to the voters, but having said that it’s a mute point anyway – whoever comes in the top 2 out of the Greens or the Alp will jag the seat.
Fair call B. Most of the other posters here have suggested 20’s too. I’m probably a bit harsher.
That internal of 60-40 – gosh, ghastly 2PP.
Sounds like there might be a lot of seats with double digit swings election night.
nadia88says:
Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 8:54 am
Just looking at that poll quoted by WB from the Oz per McConnel.
For non QLD’ers – McConnel encompasses the Brisbane CBD, the inner north & the valley.
Comparison figures from the 2020 election.
* LNP 32% (up 1)
* ALP 27% (down 8.5)
* GRN 24% (interestingly down 4)
* Others 17% (up 11.5)
—————
One Nation gained only 1.4% of the vote in McConnel at the last election.
It doesn’t make sense that 17% of people would be voting other, if those others were presented as the actual options of One Nation and Family First.
You’d think they’ll do well to score more than 5% combined.
Ps Nadia88 there’s a reason they haven’t leaked their internal polling (ps almost none of the pollies have access to the polling) despite the “green shoots” narrative. They are scared that it dishearten the base (who really liked the abortion stuff and who think it’s a massive vote changer) and it will lead to small group of undecideds to switch to the LNP because they want to “back the winner”.
mj – I think it may be a bit of a bs internal poll
Wasn’t there an internal poll in Shannon Fentimen’s seat of Waterford from a couple of weeks ago showing a 13% swing against her, and her margin is 16% from memory?
If she is the heir apparent to Miles, sure it makes sense to sandbag her seat, and the Premier’s own one too for that matter(Steven Miles presumably wouldn’t hang around for another 4 years on the backbench if he retained his seat and Labor lost government, there’d be a byelection in Murrumba eventually).
I guess the aim for Qld Labor is to try and retain as much talent as they can on October 26 – so the rebuilding phase to come can begin immediately from a decent sort of base.
Bart Mellish strikes me as the sort of younger MP with some talent that they’d love to retain, but Apsley will go to the LNP pretty easily this election.
Political nightwatchman: not that I think a hung parliament is the likely result but I think that Katter and Knuth supported the first ALP minority government in 2015 and enabled AP to be premier.
DemSnag,
Was just trying to locate that report on Fentiman’s seat. I did hear it but can’t find the source.
A poster on one of the previous QLD’s threads may have mentioned it.
I’ll have a flick through the previous threads.
nadia88says:
Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 4:03 pm
mj – I think it may be a bit of a bs internal poll
——-
Wouldn’t be surprised – the other vote definitely looks like BS. Agree with your assessment that it’s a Labor v Greens race to make the 2PP and looks unclear who’ll make the final cut.
On these figures it looks like the three Townsville seats will go the same way as plenty more in the bush. Centre of L/NPs campaign is youth law and order, do the crime do the time.
Labor has been trialling installation of engine immobilisers in Mt Isa, Cairns and Townsville and over 19,000 vouchers for $500 have been issued. Installer in Townsville will do it for that price and come to you 7 days a week 7am to 9pm. Police in FNQ say vehicle thefts are down about 20% since the trial started.
If this trial is successful it will be extended Qld wide in 2025. So Labor approved $1000 electricity rebate, rego cut, cheap public transport, free child care, free TAFE, drivers licence fees frozen and now this. Pity L/NP and Crucifooli wants to reduce tariffs on our coal and gas miners which will see all these gone. Oh well, good while it lasted.
Nadia88:
On this site recently, newest iteration of Family First unconnected to previous iterations, startup by a couple of Laborinos in Adelaide.
Lyle Shelton is on board
https://www.familyfirstparty.org.au/family_first_announces_14_candidates_for_queensland_election_more_to_come
Looking at the seats they’re running in
They’ll only be dragging down the LNP’s PV in those Seats and their rhetoric at the link throws fuel onto the LNP’s abortion fire.
So, yeah, it’s the Labor Party up to dirty tricks to gull innocent Qlders again, imo.
So if Shannon Fentimen lost her seat, the next Labor leader is Cameron Dick presumably.
Unless the Qld left have a replacement candidate in mind.
nadia88says:
Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 3:50 pm
Thanks paul A
A bit of word salad on my behalf. Apologies.
Per that poll for McConnel; I’m probably a bit curious that it’s showing an ALP primary swing of 8%, yet looking at the candidate list, the only place that vote can go is to FF or PHON.
I just can’t see inner city Labor voters, moving their vote to these two groups. Maybe rural, but not inner city types.
I’d be interested to see the options the pollster provided to the voters, but having said that it’s a mute point anyway – whoever comes in the top 2 out of the Greens or the Alp will jag the seat.
==============================
All good nadia, i got the drift about that strange 17% others vote, especially the “others” being Family First and pauline.
Gather you’re up for newspoll tonight?
Mansfield, Springwood and Toohey will all be LNP Gains imho. I’m just going by yard sign saturation but there’s way more blue yard signs in those southern suburbs than previous elections. Enough folks sharing videos of their cars getting stolen online makes the issue feel more serious than it actually may be.
Think Queenslanders have made their choice months ago. The campaign will not change anything they have their baseball(cricket) bats ready. Think 58/42 LNP with ALP statewide vote mid 20’s and LNP mid 40’s. I had the same feeling with the NT election. The ALP will not have to worry if the premier will continue in his seat as he will lose it at the election.
Political nightwatchman: not that I think a hung parliament is the likely result but I think that Katter and Knuth supported the first ALP minority government in 2015 and enabled AP to be premier.
@Princeplanet
I’m pretty sure Peter Wellington backed Labor. KAP were not happy and wanted Wellington to hold out further to negotiate more for their electorates. I think then from memory a Labor MP in North Queensland got in strife with accusations of domestic violence. Labor kicked him out of the party. I think only then KAP agreed to back Labor, but the LNP didn’t have the numbers to form government. And KAP probably also saw the lack of pragmatism of switching to LNP only a couple of months after the Palaszczuk government had been sworn in.
mj says:
Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 4:17 pm
nadia88says:
Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 4:03 pm
mj – I think it may be a bit of a bs internal poll
——-
Wouldn’t be surprised – the other vote definitely looks like BS. Agree with your assessment that it’s a Labor v Greens race to make the 2PP and looks unclear who’ll make the final cut.
===========================================
I think the funniest thing would be if the Greens won McConnel off the back of Hanson preferences.
Gosh this site would go into meltdown.
paulA – absolutely I’m up for a newspoll tonight. Always!
Per that poll for McConnel; I’m probably a bit curious that it’s showing an ALP primary swing of 8%, yet looking at the candidate list, the only place that vote can go is to FF or PHON.
I just can’t see inner city Labor voters, moving their vote to these two groups.
McConnel isn’t on the list of Seats at the FF website, but I can tell you that McConnel, Nambour, Keppel, Rocky, Maryborough, Stafford and Lytton are strong Catholic areas.
Labor voters are a mixed bag, they assuage their conscience by voting FF, sure Labor are just above the LNP on the HTV, but who understands preference voting anyway?
FF standing could be enough to sandbag 7 seats for Labor.
Doesn’t sound much, but if LNP get any less than 47 seats, there’ll be another Labor Government, and an LNP Government with 47-49 won’t last the 4 years, imo.
From The Guardian
‘Steven Miles promises free state primary school lunches for every Queensland student if Labor wins election.’
That covers the bread.
Now for the circuses.
Hey Badthinker.
I’ve done some research today and you are sort of right I suppose in that ex-Labor members are involved. But…
Tom Kenyon is a fairly conservative ex-Labor member with links to the Shoppies Union.
He crossed the floor against a Labor bill many years ago, so Labor usually doesn’t deal with these people (think of the WA senator as the latest example)
Lyle Shelton has very dogmatic conservative views.
I just can’t see the modern ALP dealing with either of them.
I def can’t see the ALP secretly funding a conservative outfit to syphon votes away from the LNP.
I think the ALP has got enough on their plate without resorting to this.
We will have to wait until we see the HTV cards.
My bet is that FF will pref the LNP ahead of Labor
I think then from memory a Labor MP in North Queensland got in strife with accusations of domestic violence. Labor kicked him out of the party. I think only then KAP agreed to back Labor, …
KAPs doing that suggests they were always going to back Labor, and when things got hot with Billy Gordon, they did back Labor.
Similar situation to 2010, the indies got together, Gillard needed 3 and she got three.
There were a couple of occasions where either Oakeshott or Windsor [or both] weren’t backing Labor on a vote, Christopher Pyne thought he had Katter’s vote, then Katter didn’t show up.
Hey Badthinker.
I’ve done some research today and you are sort of right I suppose in that ex-Labor members are involved. But…
I am right.
Tom Kenyon is a fairly conservative ex-Labor member with links to the Shoppies Union.
Nadia88, what is a recently formed Adelaide outfit headed by 2
“ex Labor” honchos doing contesting a Qld Election?
Lyle Shelton has very dogmatic conservative views.
I just can’t see the modern ALP dealing with either of them.
Sure, but it’s a Liberal Party, not a conservative Party.
The clue is in the name.
Let’s say there’s an LNP Government after Oct 19 and Katter introduces his Private Members Bill.
There’ll be a conscience vote in the LNP, but it won’t be enough.
How about if the ALP declares a conscience Vote?
Depending on how many Labor MLAs are returned, that could get the Bill up and see Abortion recriminalised.
Manna from Heaven for the ALP and it’s prospects for the 2028 State Election.
Would Lyle Shelton be on board with that quite plausible scenario?
I dunno, but it sounds like the equivalent of picking $100 bills up off the footpath.
Badthinker – there is a family first candidate in McConnel & her name is Kirsty Sands.
What are you posting?
You’ve got me running around in circles like an idiot, so stop this pls.
I should have taken the advice of the earlier poster today.
Let’s just pause and see what the FF HTV card looks like.
I will bet you it will have votes being fed to the LNP like there’s no tomorrow.
Gosh, conspiracy after conspiracy.
Take it easy.
Conspiracies happen all the time in Politics.
Unless someone has the Smoking Gun, the best they can do is offer a
Theory of Conspiracy.
It might turn out to be correct, partly correct, or completely wrong.
What we know is that even though FF and KAP cosplay conservatives, every single concrete thing Bob Katter and KAP ever did when the chips were down benefited Labor.
Family First?
Remember dogmatic conservative Senator Steve Fielding?
There was a Senate vote to prevent VAD in the Territories, Howard thought he had it in the bag, turned out Steve Fielding once knew someone who died.
So, sorry, he wouldn’t be voting for dogmatic conservatism when it actually mattered.
Yet Lyle Shelton rabbits on about how the Greens have dragged LNP to VAD?
You wouldn’t read about it.
Kevin Andrews’ bill to prevent the territories legislating on euthanasia was passed in 1997. Steve Fielding entered parliament in 2005.
Re that McConnel poll showing an 8% reduction in Labor primary and only 1% increase in LNP with most of the increase showing going to others, it’s possible the LNP has picked up more of the Labor loss but lost votes to others.
I doubt the position is 60/40 now. If anything Labor has an edge in the campaign period and has likely picked up a little. I still expect a comfortable LNP win in 2 weeks though.
BT
I am a fellow Liberal/Conservative traveller, but your post at 5.12pm today makes no sense.
In essence, you are saying that FF is propped up by ex-Labor operatives (with Shelton as the front man), with the purpose of taking votes from the LNP. The purpose of this being to bolster ALP margins.
Post election, we next have KAP introducing a private members bill to re-criminalise abortion.
The next thing you say is that for the bill to get over the line, the remaining rump of ALP members may have a conscience vote on the KAP bill (to presumably vote in support) , and that if passed by said “ALP members” – enacting the law will become “manna from heaven” for the ALP, and they’ll win the 2028 election.
I am staggered by this logic. This is utterly ridiculous.
I am staggered by this logic. This is utterly ridiculous.
It’s your logic, Paul A.