Live updated results from the Australian Capital Territory, Epping, Hornsby and Pittwater.
9.46pm. Another update from Brindabella has the Liberals down from 2.58 quotas to 2.57 and the Greens up from 0.54 to 0.55.
9.26pm. The Brindabella preliminary distribution, which was calculated before the weakening of the Liberals’ position, had Labor’s Mick Gentleman, who is fighting for his and Labor’s third seat, excluded with 3708 votes to the third Liberal’s 4218, or 14.3% of the total to 12.6%.
9.19pm. Kevin Bonham can further discern a scenario where Brindabella comes out at Labor three and Liberal two, rather than the other way around. Clearly this is the electorate that will be the main focus of interest in the late count.
9.08pm. I’m not sure whether it’s because of the correction of the Chisholm booth error or a substantial addition of new votes, but the Liberals’ third seat in Brindabella no longer looks secure. The Liberals have a 2.58 quotas (a 9.7% surplus over the second quota), the Greens 0.54 (9.0%) and Independents for Canberra 0.45 (7.5%), leaving preferences from the latter the decisive factor in whether the Greens can yet pull an iron out of the fire here. The preliminary preference distribution has the Independents for Canberra preference going 30.5% to Labor, 19.2% to the Greens and only 13.1% to the Liberals, with 37.2% exhausting. That suggests to me the Liberals will need the fillip they are presumably likely to get from postals to hold out against the Greens.
9.03pm. Nothing in the preference distribution to doubt the earlier assessment of Kurrajong as two Labor and one each for Liberal, Greens and independent Thomas Emerson, the latter taking the Greens’ second seat.
8.55pm. No surprises in the distribution for Brindabella, a clear result of Liberal three and Labor two. Ginninderra is as expected projected as a status quo result of Labor two, Liberal two, Greens on. Jo Clay of the Greens gets the last seat by surviving ahead of Mark Richardson of Independents for Canberra by 13.6% to 10.6% at the decisive point of the late count.
8.46pm. Preliminary preference distributions have been published on the ACT Electoral Commission site, which I’ll now be poring over.
8.45pm. Antony Green on the ABC notes all 900 votes from the Chisholm booth in Brindabella have been allocated to the Liberals, an obvious error. However, its correction won’t fundamentally change the situation there.
7.58pm. So it looks to me like the Liberals are gaining a seat from the Greens in Brindabella, and independents are gaining seats from the Greens in Kurrajong and Murrumbidgee. That would leave Labor steady on ten seats but reduce their coalition partners in the Greens from six to three, while leaving them with a combined majority of 13 out of 25. The Liberals would at least gain parity with Labor on ten seats, but be unable to gain a majority even if the two independents supported them.
7.52pm. Yerrabi looks like a status quo result in every particular, returning incumbents Michael Pettersson and Suzanne Orr of Labor, Leanne Castley and James Milligan of Liberal, and Andrew Braddock of the Greens.
7.49pm. My system is now calling Pittwater for Jacqui Scruby (and I believe that’s despite a glitch in the projection that’s favouring the Liberals by a handful of votes).
7.48pm. A second independent looks like being elected in Murrumbidgee — Fiona Carrick, at the expense of Emma Davidson of the Greens, with Labor (incumbents Chris Steel and Marisa Paterson) and Liberal (incumbents Jeremy Hanson and Ed Cocks) remaining on two each.
7.44pm. Kurrajong, which went two Labor, two Greens and one Liberal in 2020, looks like electing Thomas Emerson, Independents for Canberra candidate and son of former federal Labor minister Craig Emerson. This is disappointing for the Liberals who look like remaining stalled on one seat (Elizabeth Lee’s), with the others going two Labor (Andrew Barr and Rachel Stephen-Smith re-elected) and one Greens (Shane Rattenbury re-elected, Rebecca Vassarotti failing to retain the Greens’ second seat).
7.33pm. Ginninderra looks like a status quo result of two each for Labor and Liberal and one for the Greens. Labor incumbents Yvette Berry and Tara Cheyne will be re-elected, as will the only recontesting Liberal, Peter Cain, likely to be joined by Chiaka Barry. Jo Clay should be returned for the Greens.
7.21pm. Antony Green says the ABC computer is calling Pittwater for Jacqui Scruby. I’ve got her probability at 97.4%, and don’t call it until 99%.
7.18pm. I’ll now go through the ACT seats alphabetically. Brindabella looks like Liberal three and Labor two, with the Liberals taking a seat from the Greens. The only contesting Liberal incumbent, Mark Parton, has a quota on his own, with Deborah Morris (especially) and James Daniel looking good for the other two. Labor’s only contesting incumbent, Mick Gentleman, is coming third on his party’s ticket, behind Caitlin Tough and Tamius Werner-Gibbings, the latter of whom had to fight for preselection.
7.06pm. As my projection suggested it would, a fourth booth from Pittwater has moderated Jacqui Scruby’s lead. We also have, very early, a batch of postals, breaking 743-606 to Liberal. So Scruby will need her lead on the booth results. She’s very well placed, but my system still isn’t calling it.
7.03pm. I believe it was just the one bug, and it’s now fixed.
6.58pm. Bugs in my ACT page: pretty much everything in the summary table at the bottom of the entry page, and the bar charts on the seat pages are misbehaving. Initial impression is that the Liberals are doing very well in Brindabella, but more modestly elsewhere.
6.53pm. Thanks to the magic of electronic voting, a massive influx of results from the ACT.
6.51pm. Three booths in from Pittwater, and I’m projecting Jacqui Scruby with 55.6% TCP when her raw primary vote is 58.7%, so presumably these are from good areas for her. My system isn’t quite giving it away yet though.
6.48pm. Three booths in from Epping, Liberal candidate on nearly two-thirds of the vote.
6.43pm. Two booths from Pittwater look hugely encouraging for independent Jacqui Scruby, her primary vote at over 60% in both.
6.42pm. Sixty-nine votes from Wisemans Ferry offers nothing to disabuse the assumption that a Liberal win in Hornsby is a formality.
6pm. Polls are closed for each of the above-mentioned electoral events, which you can read a lot more about through the election guides at the top of the sidebar. My results page for the by-elections offer booth-matched swings and projections and full results at booth level in map and tabular form. The ACT page is more elementary – no results at booth level and the swings simply compare the current results with the final ones from 2020.
TPOF:
Yes, there is basically a floor of votes for both major parties that is not far below the 33.3% quota, so that second Senate seat for Pocock will always be a major lift, every election.
And if the ALP does get on the nose in the territory, it doesn’t have to drop too far to be the one that is left out when the music stops, too. I suspect while Pocock contests, the ACT Senate contest will be closely fought between all three.
Lars Von Triersays:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 10:11 pm
[Katy Gallagher may come third in the ACT senate count.]
Trying very hard tonight ?
Lars:
Would have to be a serious swing away from Labor and towards both the Liberals and Pocock for that to happen.
Last senate election, Gallagher got 33% percent of the primary compared to 25% for Zed and 21% for Pocock. This is despite results of 38% for Labor and 34% for the Liberals in the 2020 ACT election.
A outcome comparable to how tonight is presently looking – where Gallagher loses 3%, the Liberal candidate remains roughly the same, and there’s a mild-to-sizeable swing to Pocock – is going to be a status quo result, with the main difference being the Liberals possibly coming third. Yes, there (probably) won’t be an anti-Zed effect this go around, not an anti-Morrison effect, but there may well be an anti-Dutton effect that causes the ACT Liberals the underperform federally once more.
I mean, sure, Labor coming third could happen. I can envision a scenario where a combination disaffection with the federal government, the Liberals choosing a candidate who isn’t a god-botherer, and some measure of a swing to Pocock sees Gallagher fall to third, particularly if Greens preferences end up going to Pocock rather than Gallagher.
But I wouldn’t put money on it, and I don’t think we can draw any suggestion from tonight that that is a likely outcome. There were lots of people predicting/worrying that Gallagher would come third last election, and she ended up easily topping the primary vote.
Caf at 10.28
The desire to rid the ACT of Zed Seselja in 2022 was incredibly strong. That won’t be in play in 2025. Katy Gallagher won her quota fairly comfortably despite some Labor people like me voting first for Pocock. I can’t see her doing worse this time.
Despite the fantasies of the haters of Labor it will be Libs v Pocock for the second seat. Katy will win the first in a canter.
‘Mabwm says:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 10:20 pm
Bad night for my greens!
Fascinating that the government has been re-elected and yet the junior coalition partner has lost seats.
Lessons to be learned.’
===============
Probably easy to overthink it.
The ACT Greens were victims of the Federal Greens extremism, IMO.
They were also quotas lucky in the last election and lost that quotas luck in this election.
The Independents were like the Teals in the last election.
They could say anything critical in broad sweeping terms and there was no need for them to offer anything terribly specific by way of policies.
The Greens could not compete against that.
BW
The Independents were like the Teals in the last election.
They could say anything critical in broad sweeping terms and there was no need for them to offer anything terribly specific by way of policies.
The Greens could not compete against that.
—————————————
I was surprised by how little substance was offered by the indies in their campaign material. Put me off them a fair bit.
‘TPOF says:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 10:38 pm
Caf at 10.28
The desire to rid the ACT of Zed Seselja in 2022 was incredibly strong. That won’t be in play in 2025. Katy Gallagher won her quota fairly comfortably despite some Labor people like me voting first for Pocock. I can’t see her doing worse this time.
Despite the fantasies of the haters of Labor it will be Libs v Pocock for the second seat. Katy will win the first in a canter.’
====================
Gallagher and Pocock are shoo ins.
BtSays
Maybe we should all adopt your fawning approach to evangelism and Trumpism.
What a beautiful world that would be.
Apologies Louis Armstrong.
The beautiful world you wanted in the US has been destroyed by Trump and his international alcoyites.
”
Mabwmsays:
Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 10:20 pm
Bad night for my greens!
Fascinating that the government has been re-elected and yet the junior coalition partner has lost seats.
Lessons to be learned.
”
MABWM
Initially when David Cameron Tories got elected in 2010, it was coalition government with LibDems because Tories did not cross the half way mark. I think LibDems had over 50 seats. But when David Cameron Tories were reelected in 2015, LibDems were smashed and Tories formed a majority government.
Something like that happened to ACT Greens.
After Max hyphaneted got elected on Greens tickets, Greens forgot what their core policy is and are going backwards every where across the country where elections were held.
TPOF:
Oh for sure, I’m not saying she’s in trouble next election.
But with Pocock there, the seat certainly isn’t as safe as it had previously been.
Biden took the sanctions off Iran not Trump.
Greens won a seat NT.
citizen:
TPOF:
Going off of the ACT Liberals’ present form, they might preselect Elizabeth Kikkert!
The Biden administration did not lift any sanctions on Iran.
The Trump administration, though, abrogated the JCPOA which Iran was complying with and under which their nuclear activities were considerably constrained.
@ Asha
The Lib candidate for ACT Senate in 2025 will be Jacob Vadakkedathu. I think he is more moderate-coded than Seselja. Hopefully Gallagher will be returned. I think she starts several points ahead of Pocock who in turn starts several points ahead of the Tories.
Google – Biden lifted Iran sanctions- and see ashite load of articles that back up what I said.
If it really happened you should be able to link to the Executive Order that implemented it.
Greens suffering for their Palestine adovocacy, perhaps? The winning strategy for the Greens is to be about housing, housing, housing, with broad environmentalism (ie not just climate change) and income inequality policies thrown in as well.
And voters want actual independents, not fake ones.
Pittwater – why only 21/33 booths reporting still?
Just catching up with the results in ACT. Fantastic achievement by Barr and Rattenbury to achieve a seventh term of government. Has this been bettered in any Australian State? Their ability to work together without scandal or external slanging match is remarkable. Well done to any bludgers who were assisting today.
I say this because I think there is a lesson for Adam Bandt in this result.
The Pittwater NSW State seat result is also good news for Labor. Firstly it shows Teal policy & popularity translating to State level. Second it indicates the Teals’ popularity in traditional Liberal seats shows no sign of wearing off. That is a great sign for next May and Dutton not being able to form a majority government.
To answer the question re Pittwater, the missing 11 are not missing at all. They are the various early voting centres used in a general election but not in a by election. You can see this easily on the NSWEC results page.
Still a lot of postal votes to come, however.
Socrates @ #218 Sunday, October 20th, 2024 – 12:02 am
Not without a gerrymander I don’t believe. Libs were in power in Victoria for 27 years.
The Liberals should be happy with these results tonight.
The Liberals should be happy they lost a seat to a teal right in the backyard of Mackellar and picked up a minor swing against a 23-year-old government coming off a COVID high from 2020. You know it makes sense.
Outsider 12.05
Thanks for the explanation.
You’re a funny fella FUBAR.
I saw right wing evangelism attempts to take over the Liberals sat right on it’s arse and loudly stated that caused their defeat by reasonable Liberals!
Then there was the Liberals losing Pittwater!
I mean as you say FFS!
How did that happen!