Further indications of a Labor recovery in Queensland from a Resolve Strategic poll in the Brisbane Times, putting them fully nine points higher off a dismal mid-year starting point to record 32% of the primary vote, with the Liberal National Party down four to 40%. The pollster breaks with its usual practice of not dealing in preferences, finding the LNP leading 53-47 on a respondent-allocated measure and 52-48 using preference flows from past elections – a strikingly narrow lead considering Labor in New South Wales failed to get a majority with 54.3%. Notably, the poll has response options reflecting the candidates in the respondent’s electorate, thereby removing the all-too-popular generic independent response and causing the independent result to drop from 9% to 2%. This did not yield a dividend for minor parties: the Greens and One Nation, who have candidates in every seat, are respectively down one to 11% and up one to 9%.
A leadership approval question emphasising “performance in recent weeks” produced a distinctly favourable result for Steven Miles, including in comparison with the recent YouGov poll whose survey period partly overlapped (October 10 to 16 for that poll, October 14 to 19 for this one). Miles registered a combined very good and good rating of 48%, with poor and very poor at 38%. While this had the edge on David Crisafulli’s 44% and 37% lead, Crisafulli retained a slight 39-37 edge on preferred premier, though this was greatly reduced from his 40-27 lead in the mid-year poll, which was conducted from July through to September. The sample for the poll was 1003.
Um… Shouldnt the headline read 53-47 to LNP? (as per the actual article?)
Steven Miles is the big underdog, but do far he has totally out-campaigned his opponent, and looks like he is enjoying it too. You would still favour the LNP to win government, but this will be no 2012 like wipeout of Labor – if they can retain MPs like Megan Scanlon and Bart Mellish, they will have a decent base to work from for 2028.
This turnaround has been spectacular but it’s been on the back of a hopeless campaign by the LNP. I watched the debate and Crisifulli was evasive and lacking in even a skerrick of policy detail. People sense this and remember the chaotic and hurtful Cando Newman regime. Many of the faces are the same and Crisifulli was front and centre of that debacle. The LNP have once again been lazy , they could have been outlining detailed policy and putting to bed any lingering doubts about them being the return of hurtful Cando politics. David on this site gave me a link a few months ago to their 40 odd page policy document, it was totally lacking in anything other than sob stories about stolen tools and mostly unreasonable whinges about this that and the other. It was like the editor of the courier told them not to bother putting in any effort as they would hound out Palaszczuk and then excoriate Labor in purely partisan fashion on every front page through to election day and LNP would win in a canter – no sweat . Life don’t work like that especially now that the courier is only read by the converted and many Brisbane coffee shops won’t even provide it due to complaint. The LNP are still in the box seat to win this but the it’s getting closer and this poll was taken last week and now the nuclear issue is raising it head.
Courier Mail:
“Other responses show the most significant difference was in how “honest and trustworthy” the parties now appear, with 29 per cent saying the statement described Labor compared to 24 per cent who said the LNP.
Voters’ pick of which major party would be best in key policy areas was within two percentage points for cost of living, housing and health – but with the LNP 22 points ahead of Labor on crime statewide.”
Has Mick Quinlivan got a crystal ball? He was asking about these very poll numbers on Sunday.
I reckon the crime issue will carry the LNP over the line. But, if the polling is correct, the turnaround has been quite dramatic. I guess the debate might be a factor, but how many people actually watched that?
I can’t help feeling that the abortion issue might be more significant: not so much the issue itself, but for what it suggests in the minds of voters. What Crisafulli desperately needs to do is convince the voters that he isn’t a deranged ideologue like they consider Newman to have been. Voters are just looking for a moderately conservative government that is going to make an effort to get tough on crime. The spectre of changes to abortion laws suggests to voters that the LNP might have a whole lot of hidden agendas and, combined with Crisafulli looking pretty weak, it makes the voters think twice about the risk of bringing back the LNP. After all, for a growing proportion of Queensland voters, the Newman Government is their only memory of LNP rule at the state level. So some of them must be nervous about the prospect of it being that way again under Crisafulli.
I still think Crisafulli will win. But the LNP has blown their chances to a considerable extent.
[PS: Of course Newman wasn’t really an ideologue. He was far more of a moderate than Crisafulli, but he was infused with a sort of Napoleonic complex which led him to want to reshape the world in his own image in helluva hurry. And he didn’t understand when it was appropriate to slow the pace, let alone stop.]
Amjidsays:
Tuesday, October 22, 2024 at 5:05 am
Um… Shouldnt the headline read 53-47 to LNP? (as per the actual article?)
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clickbait
Mick – rather than Keppel and Hervey Bay, I think there is a chance of the ALP retaining Cook, Mulgrave and Gladstone and with wishful thinking Cairns and Maryborough. It is hard to let go of Rocky but it is not completely dead. Maryborough does my head in because of how low the ALP primary was when it was first won in 2015 (25% or so): but stranger things have happened.
I am seeing this as chin up in the suburbs – major relief – many good ALP names not mentioned in these threads out there. There are a few ways of looking at the distribution of swings with the city possibly even moving slightly towards the ALP compared to 2020. One scenario that gives me giggles involves Tim Nicholls, truly one of the most spectacularly dislikable remnants of born to rule arrogance to ever grace the Queensland parliament, in trouble.
I was completely fascinated by the courier mail’s poll last week that had Miles literally miles ahead in the youth vote in terms of preferred premier. I’m not a tiktoker (firmly Gen Y) but bit the bullet and decided to take a look at his account. My God, he is a social media genius! He comes across so warm, friendly and down to earth. The man bench pressed 100kgs! That’s like lifting 2 Crisafullis.
I may be in fairy land…but I think he might have what it takes to get Labor over the line. At the very least, we will have a workable opposition and there is a 99% chance that Miles will stay on a opposition leader
Here’s my take on the big shift in sentiment.
The vast majority of the electorate is disengaged with politics. Unlike ourselves most lead hectic lives and don’t have the time to “poll bludge”. Up until now their only take on politics would have been youth crime because almost everyone has a motion sensor camera they can upload recordings to socials these days.
But now is crunch time as we’re a week out from election day, so people will start properly tuning in and thinking about their decision.
Lots to lose voting for LNP in terms of cost of living, as they’ll slash the taxes on miners which fuels the gov coffers on rebates. The gov continues rolling out cost of living measures and they’re the real deal, not talk. People like it.
In short, life is good, why risk it?
Sorry, the original headline was WAY too rosy for Labor. Fixed now.
Like Howard did, Labor are simply at the stage of buying votes with silly slogans and borrowed money. Who seriously thinks building petrol stations is a great way to spend borrowed money.
What about the second government owned electricity retailer. The government already owns one, plus it was the Labor government that privatised the electricity retailing sector along with Labor now privatising the electricity generating sector via stealth.
We can all see the government supplied free food for school children being another NDIS fraud central, not to mention how you would supply food to all of Queensland. Imagine the waste and cost. In fact after near thirty years of Labor rule, why would we even need to supply children with food if Labor are the best leaders there has ever been? It is damning of their leadership.
It is just freebies after freebies with borrowed money from labor because they caused all the problems to begin with.
Miles track record is abysmal. Covid he did nothing but complain. He never spoke out against the way palaszczuk ran the state. Then when he gets into being premier, flip flops all over the place. The Olympic stadium debacle is classic Miles and classic Labor. The Gabba was the best plan ever according Mile last year. Then he said, oh we need to have an inquiry. When the inquiry recommended something else, he said, nah lets ignore my inquiry and go with a billion dollar stadium we will pull down after 15 days of use.
The LNP went just full stupid over the abortion issue, instead of just saying, there will be no conscience vote, we will not change the current laws regardless of what the katters want, the lnp flip flopped as well. I would laugh if Katters lost their seats over their stance of making abortion their #1 issue for north Queensland rather then services, roads, regulations.
If Labor did somehow pull off a win, does anyone think they would win any seats in 2028 going by their track record? It was only covid that got them through 2020.
Good one J Beans: Miles could bench press two Crisifulli’s but more importantly if you put all of the LNPs policies into a box even I could bench press it with one finger. Miles has earned to right to stay on as leader, he is energetic and has tons of ideas. The leadership team of him and Dick has been great. To think so many on here and elsewhere under rated him so badly. Thanks J Beans and Mick and BT and DS and Mavis. These last few weeks have been an LNP paradise on this site so good to have some comments that kept my chin up and gave an alternative narrative. I’ve said all along that a one sided results would not be good for Qld,Labor or the LNP . All I was hoping for was a strong opposition as there are some strange elements in the LNP that need restraining. Hopefully Saturday will provide a decent opposition to keep them from going rogue like Cando.
Bogan: it would be ironic if the abortion issue put paid to Tim Nichol consider the was one of the few along with Minnikin in Chatsworth who supported the reproductive rights bill. Actually some of the LNPd most marginal seats are in SEQ including 4 in Brisbane one of which sits squarely in greensland. The most marginal of all is rising star Gerber on 0.5 on the GC , interestingly many of the GC LNP seats are super marginal but with a GC based leader.
( admittedly one who shot through from far Q after losing his seat) hard to see them staying that way .
Gee wiz what a shock, this is probably the worst campaign I’ve seen in my lifetime by a pretty fair distance given the circumstances. I think the federal election broke the QLD LNP’s brain and the message they took away from it is try and run as small a target campaign as possible bereft of any substantial policy outside of platitudes & slogans. Turns out that doesn’t work as well when the incumbent party is implementing popular policies, forcing you to co-opt a bunch of them all while allowing your policy vacuum to be filled by RWNJ’s that you’re unable to properly shutdown because again, small target, try not to upset anyone ect ect ect.
They’ll still probably win, but how a centre-right 3-term opposition party with a centre-right electorate has managed to make this race close enough to be in the MOE is unbelievable political incompetence
The nuclear power issue is also a problem for the Tories. Crusifalli is adamant he won’t allow reactors in Queensland but
if Dutton’s elected, I can’t see him having the strength of character to stand up to him. Granted, the Nuclear Facilities Prohibition Act 2007 prohibits the construction and operation of nuclear reactors of the type Dutton’s proposing but with no Upper House, the instant Act could be repealed or amended. The
Queensland Tories can’t be trusted. Look no further than Newman.
https://www.legislation.qld.gov.au/view/pdf/asmade/act-2007-004
I saw a headline earlier that had Labor leading 53/47 so thought it was a nightmare. Went back to sleep.
“My God, he is a social media genius! He comes across so warm, friendly and down to earth.”
Also Gen Y and I haven’t delved into his Tik-tok, but hearing his voice on a Youtube ad I’ve been getting did the same thing for me. He’s just reading out the campaign ad, there’s no “Hi, I’m Stephen Miles, vote for me” element to it. Somehow, in a way I struggle to describe, it’s so refreshing.
Like vibes of rolling up his sleeves, “Let’s get this ad done”, rather than outsourcing it to some actor to do. I dunno…
Don’t underestimate how appealing the prospect of not having to take time out of a frantic morning to make the kids lunch would be to parents.
ajm @ #19 Tuesday, October 22nd, 2024 – 8:56 am
And many of them the same people concerned over women’s health care rights.
”
Mavissays:
Tuesday, October 22, 2024 at 9:35 am
The nuclear power issue is also a problem for the Tories. Crusifalli is adamant he won’t allow reactors in Queensland but
if Dutton’s elected, I can’t see him having the strength of character to stand up to him. Granted, the Nuclear Facilities Prohibition Act 2007 prohibits the construction and operation of nuclear reactors of the type Dutton’s proposing but with no Upper House, the instant Act could be repealed or amended. The
Queensland Tories can’t be trusted. Look no further than Newman.
https://www.legislation.qld.gov.au/view/pdf/asmade/act-2007-004
”
Mavis
For a moment let us say (and fantasise) that Crisafulli can stand up to Dutton and will not allow Nuclear reactors in QLD.
If Dutton can’t install Nuclear reactors in QLD, why should other states install them, especially when people of other intensely dislike Dutton more than people in QLD?
And Labor should hammer LNP (LNP is really more MAGA in QLD than in any other state). on abortion because women will lose some of their freedom with abortion restrictions.
They should point out to what is currently happening in USA when restrictions are in place for abortion.
“The LNP have once again been lazy , they could have been outlining detailed policy and putting to bed any lingering doubts about them being the return of hurtful Cando politics”
Maybe they can’t put those doubts to bed because that’s what they are.
If Qld Labor clings onto government at this election it probably surpasses the 1993 Federal and the 1999 Vic election as the most surprising boilovers in my lifetime, as well as demonstrating that even in Queensland, the Coalition’s continued marriage with hard right social conservative wingnuts is a killer to it.
It will be fun if LNP doesn’t get majority on its own but has to depend upon PHON and Katter’s party for majority.
Labor needs to talk about how the LNP plan to wind back abortion laws non-stop until election day.
I’m one of the few Queenslanders with a Brisbane Times subscription. I even read it sometimes.
There’s another article up this morning with regionality breakdowns on leaders and key election issues (although much less detailed thanYouGov), but not overall voting intentions. I’m guessing there may be more to come tomorrow? They mostly comment on the massive country/city divide, although I’d say it’s more about Brisbane vs the rest (nobody in a place like Townsville would consider themselves “country”).
It doesn’t reaanswer the big question, which is what is going on in the outer metropolitan areas around Brisbane. Has Miles been able to turn the ALP vote around in the outer suburbs? Other polling has had the ALP facing swings in the order of 10% in these areas, and i’m pretty certain the only path back for the ALP is these outer metro areas. The regions are gone, and the coasts never loved them to begin with.
Jolly jumbuck : I disagree with your free lunch assessment, I know one of the LNPs oldest slogans was there’s no such thing as a free lunch, but maybe there is outside of LNP nasty world. A free lunch might entice some of the kids up in far Q to go to school rather than make mischief. Maybe these euphemistically named untouchables might just need better food , a bit of attention and a bit of education and you might see some of them become good members of society rather than lifelong misfits who are in and out of jail at far greater cost than hot meal at a tuckshop. LNP people obviously struggle with lateral thinking and see everything in short term monetary ways
Wombat, I’ve got a subscription as well, I would say unless Labor’s substantially improved vote is totally concentrated in Brisbane that this would indicate that it’s vote has improved in greater Brisbane not just inner Brisbane, it may even be that it has improved in some regional centres as well. It might even improve further as the LNP campaign has not been able to get on the front foot and with the nuclear issue now coming on strong they are going even further on the defensive. I still cannot see a path to victory for Labor but it feels like it’s getting closer and Mr Crisifulli just can’t seem to get on the front foot.
Princeplanet – I have been chatting a bit to Mark Bailey, MP for Miller, on Facebook. He reckons there has been a swing back to Labor in his seat in the last few weeks, and the abortion issue is hurting the LNP.
My suspicion is the LNP majority on Saturday might be around about 15-20 seats.
Overall this thread is far more civilised than the U.S Presidential ones on Poll Bludger, so I am happy mate to join you in some good discussion.
@ Fargo
Of course I don’t have a crystal ball
..but I wanted to make it clear that was what I hoped to see with the tightening of the polls in labour’s favour.
I tried a different way of writing things
With the tightening of the polls…. the pattern of prepolls will vary.. from more pro lnp to more pro Labor