Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
The US presidential election is next Tuesday, with results on Wednesday AEDT. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Kamala Harris has a 48.5-47.6 lead over Donald Trump (48.6-47.4 in my US election article for The Conversation on Monday). Harris’ national lead peaked on October 2, when she led by 49.4–45.9.
In presidential elections, the Electoral College is decisive, not the national popular vote. Trump leads by 0.5 points in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), after Harris had led there until last week. With slightly larger leads in North Carolina (16), Georgia (16) and Arizona (11), Trump leads in the Electoral College by 281-251 with Nevada’s six tied. If Harris wins Pennsylvania, she most likely wins the Electoral College, although she only leads by 0.3 points in Wisconsin (ten). Silver’s model gives Trump a 55% chance to win, while FiveThirtyEight gives him a 53% chance.
I will have an article for The Conversation tomorrow that also looks at the congressional races. On Monday, my final pre-election article for The Conversation will give poll closing times for next Wednesday. I will do a live blog here that day.
Canadian provincial elections
From October 19 to Monday, there have been elections in the Canadian provinces of British Columbia (BC), New Brunswick (NB) and Saskatchewan. All these elections were held using first past the post.
At the October 19 BC election, the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) won 47 of the 93 seats (down ten since 2020), the Conservatives 44 and the Greens two (steady). The NDP retained government for a third successive term. Vote shares were 44.8% NDP (down 2.9%), 43.3% Conservatives (up 41.4%) and 8.2% Greens (down 6.8%).
The main BC conservative party used to be the BC Liberals, who are not part of the centre-left federal Liberals. But the BC Liberals were supplanted by the Conservatives during the last term, and didn’t contest any seats under their new BC United name.
At the October 21 NB election, the centre-left Liberals defeated a Conservative government, winning 31 of the 49 seats (up 14 since 2020), the Conservatives 16 (down 11) and the Greens two (down one). Vote shares were 48.2% Liberals (up 13.9%), 35.0% Conservatives (down 4.3%) and 13.8% Greens (down 1.5%).
At Monday’s Saskatchewan election, the conservative Saskatchewan Party (SP) won a fifth successive term with 35 of the 61 seats (down 13 since 2020) to 26 for the NDP (up 13). Vote shares were 52.9% SP (down 8.2%) and 39.4% NDP (up 7.6%). Postal votes are still to be counted, but the SP has definitely won 32 seats. Late polls that gave the NDP a narrow lead were wrong.
LDP-led coalition loses majority in Japan
Of the 465 lower house Japanese seats, 289 are elected by FPTP and the remaining 176 using proportional representation in multi-member electorates. The conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) with its Komeito allies have governed almost continuously since 1955, with the last interruption after the 2009 election.
At Sunday’s election, the LDP won 191 seats (down 69 since 2021) and Komeito 24 (down eight). For the first time since 2009, the LDP and Komeito were short of the 233 seats needed for a majority. The centre-left Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) won 148 seats (up 52). Two other conservative parties won 38 and 28 seats, so the LDP, Komeito and one of these parties will be enough for the LDP to reach a majority and stay in power. The LDP won the FPTP seats by 132-104 over the CDP on vote shares of 38.5-29.0.
Moldova and Georgia
A referendum on joining the European Union was held in Moldova on October 20. The Yes case prevailed by just a 50.35-49.65 margin after No had led until near the end of the count. This referendum was only a first step towards Moldova joining the EU.
Georgia (the country) used national PR with a 5% threshold to elect its 150 seats. At Saturday’s election, the pro-Russia and autocratic Georgian Dream retained government for a fourth successive term, winning 89 of the 150 seats on 53.9% of the vote (up 5.7% since 2020). No other party won more than 11%. This election was marred by reports of ballot rigging and voter intimidation.
Guys especially women folks
Today is Diwali (Hindu festival of lights), arguably the most important festival of Hindus and celebrated by all Hindus across the world and not just India. Also, celebrated at White House, USA.
The message of Diwali is triumph of Good over evil or spread light to drive away darkness.
The story behind Diwali:
There was a Demon called Narakasura, who was very powerful and did a great Penance of Lord Shiva. Lord Shiva was pleased by his devotion told him that he would grant a boon. Narakasura requested a immortal life. Lord Shiva refused that and and asked for something else. Narakasura asked that he be not killed by men, gods any other creatures. Lord Shiva granted him that wish. Narakasura created havoc on earth heaven with that boon.
Long story short, goddess Bhudevi was born as princess Satyabhama, married Lord Krishna. Satyabhama went to war with Lord Krishna and killed Narakasura and drove away darkness spread by Narakasura.
Hindus also celebrated another festival in the month of October called Dussehra, where Goddess Shakti fights with another powerful demon, who created havoc on earth, called Mahishasur for nine days and kills him on 9th day. Hence, the 10th day is called Vijaya dashami (day of victory). Goddess Shakti is also called Mahishasura mardini(Slayer of Mahishasura).
Dussehra and Diwali are some of the most important festivals of Hindus.
A Australian MP(I don’t know who, requested HOR Speaker to declare month of October as Hindu heritage month mainly because Dussehra and Diwali festivals fell in the month of October.
Common theme of these festivals is Goddesses defeated demons.
Any lurking Hindus of this site: Happy Diwali. 🙂
yeah dang P1 you’re probably right. It’s a shame because she had so much momentum but the approach to swing states has been very condescending and paternal. It’s very obvious that this is the Biden election campaign still and I think that’s really hurt her. Obviously a full revamp is pretty unrealistic as most funding had been allocated by the time Biden dropped out but damn.
I think the Democrats are giving me Canberra Liberals vibes in that they only want to win on their terms, and under a very certain set of conditions. I don’t know if it will work out, and I don’t necessarily want them to win, but if Trump gets back in then holy hell. I shudder to think what’ll happen when he has a term with a permanent end-date set.
”
sprocket_says:
Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 9:56 am
Rupert with his thumb on the scale…
FOX News battleground polls:
MICHIGAN:
Harris 49
Trump 49
PENNSYLVANIA:
Trump 50
Harris 49
NORTH CAROLINA:
Trump 50
Harris 49
”
I read somewhere that Trump met Rupert Murdoch recently.
I have a strong strong suspicion that maybe Murdoch thumb is on the scale with respect to these polls.
I don’t care what my critics say. That is my opinion.
and happy Diwali Ven, I am not Hindu but have worked with many and love the story of Diwali (and really just any Hindu stories, they are all very interesting). I’m hoping the women drive away the demons in the USA next week!
”
Beansays:
Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 10:25 am
yeah dang P1 you’re probably right. It’s a shame because she had so much momentum but the approach to swing states has been very condescending and paternal. It’s very obvious that this is the Biden election campaign still and I think that’s really hurt her. Obviously a full revamp is pretty unrealistic as most funding had been allocated by the time Biden dropped out but damn.
I think the Democrats are giving me Canberra Liberals vibes in that they only want to win on their terms, and under a very certain set of conditions. I don’t know if it will work out, and I don’t necessarily want them to win, but if Trump gets back in then holy hell. I shudder to think what’ll happen when he has a term with a permanent end-date set.
”
Harris campaign “approach to swing states has been very condescending and paternal.”. Seriously!!!
“and I don’t necessarily want them to win” . After all we saw, you still don’t want Democrats win. Seriously!!!?
Omar
The truism is ‘It always comes down to turnout’. As for FoxNews, they want as many eyeballs as possible, so a cliffhanger is what the MSM wants.
Having said that, there is some outliers in the polling – like this:
Arizona Polling:
President
Harris (D): 45%
Trump (R): 43%
Senate:
Gallego (D): 49%
Lake (R): 34%
Raba Research / Oct 27, 2024 / n=589
Ven I believe the Democrats will be better for America but I don’t think they’ll be ‘good’ for America, if that makes any sense.
Despite that, even though I disagree with maaaany things about them, I would still vote for them if I was American, women’s rights are simply too important, and like trans-rights, they have increasingly become a bellweather for intolerance and extremism. Any effort, big or small to combat anti-women laws and rhetoric is utterly essential for any hope of the democratic project succeeding, not to mention just the morally right and human position to have.
Victoria, I’ve seen you say you think Florida will go to the Democrats a few times recently. Why do you think that? I cannot see any scenario in which that occurs in this election. But I’d be interested to know why you think it’s on the cards.
Harris is winning so far, considering ballots already cast. The anti-Democratic ranks are split this time, so three things will follow from that. First, a share of past-Republican voters will not vote at all; and second, a further share of past-Republican voters will swap to the blues. Furthermore, past infrequent/rare and independent voters will be more likely to align for Harris and the Democrats than for the criminal/traitor/racist/sexist demagogue..
The criminal/traitor/racist/sexist demagogue is clearly planning to steal the election – essentially, to bastardise democracy with the use of violence if necessary. This is the only way he can gain power.
Really very obviously, the popular weight is for Harris. The donors, the attendance at rallies, the votes already cast, the increase in registrations, the endorsement by former Republican leaders, the participation of women and the young…these are all consistent with a very strong showing by Harris. This is what we should expect. It is happening right now.
The polls are weighted data/demography matching exercises. They are not randomised sampling. They are shaped by guesses. They exhibit almost no variation, which shows they have been “smoothed” in much the same ways. They are all very likely to be wrong. They are not measuring actual voters. They are measuring something else instead.
Stinker
Governor DeSantis and Republican senators who are against
Women reproductive rights and climate change policies which has now caused Floridians to have astronomical and
Unaffordable insurance costs due to increased Hurricanes
Bean says:
Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 10:25 am
yeah dang P1 you’re probably right. It’s a shame because she had so much momentum but the approach to swing states has been very condescending and paternal.
This is nonsense. Harris will win these contests because she has devoted huge resources, effort and time to them. The results shown in early voting verify this.
The Lincoln Project (watch video when Trump called Harris supporters sum and garbage)
@ProjectLincoln
“It’s the people that surround her, they’re scum and they want to take down our country. They are absolute garbage.”
– Donald Trump, 9/7/24
https://x.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1851704355440689523?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1851704355440689523%7Ctwgr%5Eab5bce1f80e4063bd409ceb75ad5d12cd87a0e28%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2024%2F10%2F30%2F2281112%2F-That-time-Trump-called-Harris-supporters-Scum-and-Absolute-Garbage
So Trump can call Harris supporters “scum and garbage” but Biden, who is not even a candidate, cannot call Trump supporter garbage.
Got it FUBAR, Badthinker and PP.
If I was an American I’d be, like, ‘can’t wait to get me some of those Elon Musk Argentinian-style austerity economy prescriptions!!!’
I guess we’ll see, Victoria. I don’t think the demographics in Florida are going to be outweighed by the matters you mention, but I guess we’ll know soon enough.
WTF?
Bellwether says:
Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 10:57 am
What is your economic prescription to fix the Argentinian economy?
Ven says:
Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 10:52 am
I encourage you and everyone else to vote for Harris, despite her being a very poor candidate who has been barely able to open a polling lead against the worst Presidential candidate, ever.
The Tech Lords are coming.
Xi nobbled his wannabe Tech Lords by disappearing them.
The US?
Vikki Verka.
The Tech Lords are coming.
FUBAR
How does the US economy equate in any way to the Argentinian economy? Argentina is down and out, the US economy is pumping by almost any measure. There are Americans that are finding it tough going, I understand that, but so are people all around the world, it’s a global phenomenon. So why would Musk want to meddle with an economy the envy of the world and apply an Argentinian-style austerity program? There’s a problem with ordinary Americans expecting the cost of their shopping basket to return to pre-covid levels, that’s not going to happen unless…….deflation.
Okay but the election is still 7 days away. I’m not going to get excited over a few early votes when the vast majority are yet to be cast. Anyway, feels weird that I’m being attacked for trying to engage critically with the discussion. I’m not even pro-trump, I was on here telling everyone that the Trump shooting won’t make a drop in the bucket for polling because it’ll remind everybody how much they dislike the guy and want him gone (to which I was correct).
If Florida was really in play, Harris or Walz would have visited the state by now, as they have not you would assume their internal polling is telling them it is not worth spending money there.
Harris is campaigning in the real 7 battleground states, you know which ones they are.