Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
The US presidential election is next Tuesday, with results on Wednesday AEDT. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Kamala Harris has a 48.5-47.6 lead over Donald Trump (48.6-47.4 in my US election article for The Conversation on Monday). Harris’ national lead peaked on October 2, when she led by 49.4–45.9.
In presidential elections, the Electoral College is decisive, not the national popular vote. Trump leads by 0.5 points in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), after Harris had led there until last week. With slightly larger leads in North Carolina (16), Georgia (16) and Arizona (11), Trump leads in the Electoral College by 281-251 with Nevada’s six tied. If Harris wins Pennsylvania, she most likely wins the Electoral College, although she only leads by 0.3 points in Wisconsin (ten). Silver’s model gives Trump a 55% chance to win, while FiveThirtyEight gives him a 53% chance.
I will have an article for The Conversation tomorrow that also looks at the congressional races. On Monday, my final pre-election article for The Conversation will give poll closing times for next Wednesday. I will do a live blog here that day.
Update Thursday 12:38pm Today’s US election article for The Conversation says Trump’s edge in Pennsylvania could give him the Electoral College win, and also that Biden is a drag on Harris. Congressional elections appear to be trending to the Republicans.
Canadian provincial elections
From October 19 to Monday, there have been elections in the Canadian provinces of British Columbia (BC), New Brunswick (NB) and Saskatchewan. All these elections were held using first past the post.
At the October 19 BC election, the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) won 47 of the 93 seats (down ten since 2020), the Conservatives 44 and the Greens two (steady). The NDP retained government for a third successive term. Vote shares were 44.8% NDP (down 2.9%), 43.3% Conservatives (up 41.4%) and 8.2% Greens (down 6.8%).
The main BC conservative party used to be the BC Liberals, who are not part of the centre-left federal Liberals. But the BC Liberals were supplanted by the Conservatives during the last term, and didn’t contest any seats under their new BC United name.
At the October 21 NB election, the centre-left Liberals defeated a Conservative government, winning 31 of the 49 seats (up 14 since 2020), the Conservatives 16 (down 11) and the Greens two (down one). Vote shares were 48.2% Liberals (up 13.9%), 35.0% Conservatives (down 4.3%) and 13.8% Greens (down 1.5%).
At Monday’s Saskatchewan election, the conservative Saskatchewan Party (SP) won a fifth successive term with 35 of the 61 seats (down 13 since 2020) to 26 for the NDP (up 13). Vote shares were 52.9% SP (down 8.2%) and 39.4% NDP (up 7.6%). Postal votes are still to be counted, but the SP has definitely won 32 seats. Late polls that gave the NDP a narrow lead were wrong.
Update Thursday 12:38pm With most postals counted, the SP wins by 34 seats to 27 for the NDP from vote shares of 52.4-40.1.
LDP-led coalition loses majority in Japan
Of the 465 lower house Japanese seats, 289 are elected by FPTP and the remaining 176 using proportional representation in multi-member electorates. The conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) with its Komeito allies have governed almost continuously since 1955, with the last interruption after the 2009 election.
At Sunday’s election, the LDP won 191 seats (down 69 since 2021) and Komeito 24 (down eight). For the first time since 2009, the LDP and Komeito were short of the 233 seats needed for a majority. The centre-left Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) won 148 seats (up 52). Two other conservative parties won 38 and 28 seats, so the LDP, Komeito and one of these parties will be enough for the LDP to reach a majority and stay in power. The LDP won the FPTP seats by 132-104 over the CDP on vote shares of 38.5-29.0.
Moldova and Georgia
A referendum on joining the European Union was held in Moldova on October 20. The Yes case prevailed by just a 50.35-49.65 margin after No had led until near the end of the count. This referendum was only a first step towards Moldova joining the EU.
Georgia (the country) used national PR with a 5% threshold to elect its 150 seats. At Saturday’s election, the pro-Russia and autocratic Georgian Dream retained government for a fourth successive term, winning 89 of the 150 seats on 53.9% of the vote (up 5.7% since 2020). No other party won more than 11%. This election was marred by reports of ballot rigging and voter intimidation.
Kamala Harris made the case against the ‘Petty Tyrant’.
El Nuevo Día, Puerto Rico’s biggest newspaper, endorsed Kamala Harris on Tuesday following backlash to a comedian who disparaged Puerto Rico at Donald Trump’s rally in New York Sunday.
“The hearts of all of us who love this beautiful Garden of America, and of the world, clench with rage and pain. Puerto Ricans are a noble and peaceful people, who deeply love their island,” the paper’s editor, María Luisa Ferré Rangel, wrote.
The endorsement comes after comedian and Trump supporter Tony Hinchcliffe called Puerto Rico a “floating island of hot garbage” while opening for Trump at his Madison Square Garden rally.
“Is that what Trump and the Republican Party think about Puerto Ricans? Politics is not a joke and hiding behind a comedian is cowardly,” Rangel wrote in response to Hinchcliffe’s comment.
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/10/29/2024-elections-live-coverage-updates-analysis/puerto-rico-newspaper-endorse-harris-00186156
every tether is tangled and twisted
thеy slowly sever your heart from thе whole
iron shackles
hungry jackals
with eyes like coal
underfoot as you steal past the gallows
brittle branches, or pieces of bone?
feel your chest heave
are you ready
to come back home?
The Harris team saying 75,000 at the Ellipse.
I must say, the production quality – including the speech writing – was excellent. Even the Washington sirens (police or trolls?) did not diminish. More like the DNC speech rather than the stump ones.
Biden has just put his foot in it.
From The Guardian live coverage.
While true, no need to say it out loud at this stage of the game.
*edited
How the hell can Trump be anywhere near leading oh that’s right a dud Harris and Trump leftie derangement syndrome.6 days to go .
Biden’s not running. Not wrong, either.
Harris can just repeat herself. “See, this is what I mean, it’s time to turn the page and move on from the division”.
The politics and the social psychology of mutually-held contempt….very very depressing
Been Theresays:
Wednesday, October 30, 2024 at 11:53 am
Biden has just put his foot in it.
From The Guardian live coverage.
Pres. Biden tonight:
“Donald Trump has no character. He doesn’t give a damn about the Latino community…just the other day, a speaker at his rally called Puerto Rico a floating island of garbage?…The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters.”
10:33 AM · Oct 30, 2024
While true, no need to say it out loud at this stage of the game.
———————–
That’s poor from Biden because any attack has to be at Trump not the voters.
Based Joe calling a spade a spade. Don’t listen to the crybabies Joe, keep the hits coming!
Edit: Damn he has already clarified
“Kamala Harris made the case against the ‘Petty Tyrant’.”
____
And if she does lose, it will probably be because this was the only focus of her campaign. So stupid. 47% of the country is MAGA and they are not for turning.
Harris needed a clear and easy to understand positive message to make lives better for Americans – especially those demographics who have an inconsistent voting record.
Instead she has spent her time preaching to the converted and simultaneously further alienating MAGA folk (thus motivating them to come out in even larger numbers). Along the way a significant (yet minority) number of younger black males have also broken off and it appears that some have even gone full MAGA. Perhaps it’s the Puff Daddy effect.
Of course if she does win it will be because fascism is a failed ideology utterly toxic to a political campaign what the hell were they thinking oh well who cares I’m having fun watching the sundered remnants of the republican party devour each other.
There’s quite a lot at stake really.
How about not voting for the orange clown, she’s seemed pretty consistent on that message.
One sliver of hope for the dems is the number of republican voters who perished of Covid since the last time Trump was elected
I think the misreported comment by Biden is right – anyone who supports Trump is garbage. Just like anyone who supported Hitler in 1933. Worse, in fact, because the USA calls itself a genuine democracy and maybe half the voters will vote for someone who proposes explicitly to destroy that democracy.
That said – all the Trump supporters promoting the misreported comment by Biden are very carefully leaving out the next sentence. According to the Guardian, what he said, at worst was : “The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters – his, his demonization of Latinos is unconscionable and it’s un-American.”
It’s clear from the next line that he was referring to the “comedian” not to the supporters in general.
Other full versions of the transcript show the same thing – see the Guardian blog. So, a stray ‘s’ at the end and everyone goes bananas. Even if the reality is something different. Still, its all good for Trump.
mikehilliard @ #13 Wednesday, October 30th, 2024 – 12:01 pm
It was a troll comment. Don’t even engage.
Anyone who bothered to watch/listen to the speech knows Harris actually spent at least as much time on policy proposals as she did on attacking Trump. On housing, taxes, immigration, abortion, etc.. Don’t buy the media’s one-line summaries.
Another ‘sliver’ of hope: polls showing Harris ahead nationally and ahead or tied in swing states.
Exhibit A trump derangement syndrome right here..
‘I think the misreported comment by Biden is right – anyone who supports Trump is garbage. Just like anyone who supported Hitler in 1933. ‘
Dems see signs for optimism in gender gap in early vote
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/29/gender-gap-early-voting-00186155
Another sliver of hope: polls showing Harris ahead nationally and ahead or tied in swing states.
Trump outperformed polls in 2016 and 2020 so being tied in swing states isn’t so great for Harris. She’ll win the popular vote of course but that’s worthless
”
sprocket_says:
Wednesday, October 30, 2024 at 11:29 am
The Harris team saying 75,000 at the Ellipse.
I must say, the production quality – including the speech writing – was excellent. Even the Washington sirens (police or trolls?) did not diminish. More like the DNC speech rather than the stump ones.
”
Harris campaign, campaign events and campaign strategy till now have been almost flawless. Her speeches were pitch perfect.
She doesn’t have to be Obama, the orator, or Clinton, the explainer. She does have to be herself, sound sincere and inspire American people to win the election.
It is astonishing that there were no slip ups and did not give any material for Republicans to attack with such a campaign period to do so especially after what happened to Biden candidacy and after it went up in flames.
Harris picked almost the same the same Biden campaign team. Biden campaign team was floundering before Harris candidacy.
The way Democrats, elite or otherwise, coalesced around was amazing to say the least and the way American people warmed upto her in such short time is unheard off.
pied piper @ #18 Wednesday, October 30th, 2024 – 10:29 am
The only people suffering Trump derangement syndrome are his supporters. You would have to be deranged to believe Trump is the best person for the job.
Biden didn’t say what he said. Got it.
It’s shrinking though, at least in the swing states. WI is down to +8 (from +10 recently). MI and PA also down 1-2 points from their highs.
Harris’s national lead of +8 remains stable for now.
I’d say +6 is the danger zone (+4 to +6 nationally is what Biden got in 2020). If the early vote tally hits ~75 million (looking like it probably won’t) and women are still +8 nationally by then I’d feel pretty good.
Have been expecting the gender gap to disappear as early in-person voting overtakes postals, but so far that hasn’t happened. Also thought GOP registrants would overtake Dem, but also hasn’t happened yet (Dem remain stubbornly +2 nationally; albeit based upon a lot of TargetSmart data).
”
Omar Comin’says:
Wednesday, October 30, 2024 at 1:31 pm
Dems see signs for optimism in gender gap in early vote
…
In Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, there is at least a 10-point gap between men and women in the early vote, according to POLITICO’s analysis and data from the University of Florida’s United States Election Project. Similar gender data is not available for other battlegrounds, including Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada. ”
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/29/gender-gap-early-voting-00186155
”
Omar
I already provided that data including AZ NV WI yesterday, for which I was trolled by FUBAR.
“Vensays:
Tuesday, October 29, 2024 at 3:20 pm
Gender gap in early voting
Women
MI = +14
PA = +13
GA= +12
NC= +11
WI = +8
FL = +8
OH =+8
TX = +8
NE = +9
IA =+10
AZ = +4
NV = 0
MT = +3”
Trump outperformed polls in 2016 and 2020 so being tied in swing states isn’t so great for Harris.
There’s a tremendous amount of MAGA money flowing in to betting markets at stupidly bad odds on the basis that this will of course occur again a third time, because according to MAGA that’s just how science works, and I am all here for that.
You know how Trump always lies about the 50,000 people outside his venues? That might actually be true for Harris in this case. Remember, this is the OVERFLOW.
“Delaney Corcoran
@del_corcoran
WOAH this is CRAZY— my friend just sent me this video from the OVERFLOW section of the VP’s ellipse speech in DC. This crowd is wild. I’ve only ever seen the mall this full before at the 2017 Women’s March. Historic. We’re all ready for a New Way Forward. (Watch linked video)
https://x.com/del_corcoran/status/1851409329423073496?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1851409329423073496%7Ctwgr%5Eee3a598c5f78a2a96584281c986a8f8930821bda%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2024%2F10%2F29%2F2280813%2F-Kamala-Harris-stirring-closing-argument-showed-she-ll-be-a-president-we-ll-be-proud-of
That’s interesting Ven, do you have a link to the source? The POLITICO stated that they were unable to get data for a number of the states you have listed there.
Don’t worry about FUBAR, he is presumably under the impression that women are very enthusiastic to welcome MAGA ovulation surveillance and mandatory reporting into their lives which of course makes the above data great news for Trump.
Nikki Haley is now out and about… somehow, I don’t think Trump is listening. But perhaps some Republican women are…
Former Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley criticized the “bromance” and “masculinity stuff” on display at former President Donald Trump’s controversial Madison Square Garden rally this week, arguing it could alienate female voters.
During an appearance on Tuesday’s Special Report on Fox News, Haley said, “I think they need to do what they need to do to get across the finish line. I just think that they need to focus primarily on who it is they are talking to.”
She noted:
You’ve got Americans who are absolutely going to vote for Trump, you’ve got Americans who are absolutely not going to vote for Trump, and then you’ve got a percentage in the middle who like Trump policies but don’t like his style. That is what they need to focus on.
So, when you look at these things, it has got to be a story of addition. This is not a time to have anyone criticize Puerto Rico or Latinos. This is not a time for them to get overly masculine with this bromance thing that they’ve got going. Fifty-three percent of the electorate are women. Women will vote. They care about how they are being talked to and they care about the issues. They need to remember that. This is a time of discipline and this is a time of addition.
https://www.mediaite.com/tv/nikki-haley-rips-bromance-and-masculinity-stuff-on-display-at-trumps-msg-rally-going-to-make-women-uncomfortable/
pied piper says:
Wednesday, October 30, 2024 at 1:29 pm
Exhibit A trump derangement syndrome right here..
‘I think the misreported comment by Biden is right – anyone who supports Trump is garbage. Just like anyone who supported Hitler in 1933. ‘
___________________________________
Why trump derangement syndrome? Haven’t you heard what he has been saying (when it makes sense)?
It’s easy to dismiss my comment as “Trump derangement syndrome” but that really adds nothing to any discussion. But then you never do.
FUBAR says:
Wednesday, October 30, 2024 at 1:40 pm
Biden didn’t say what he said. Got it.
____________________________________
Biden said EVERYTHING he said, not just the bits that Trump promoters have pulled out for framing. I hope you get it now.
”
Omar Comin’says:
Wednesday, October 30, 2024 at 1:59 pm
That’s interesting Ven, do you have a link to the source? The POLITICO stated that they were unable to get data for a number of the states you have listed there.
Don’t worry about FUBAR, he is presumably under the impression that women are very enthusiastic to welcome MAGA ovulation surveillance and mandatory reporting into their lives which of course makes the above data great news for Trump.
”
Omar
The gender data is provided by state election boards. So there is no guessing or modelling about it. Sorting by party registration may or may not be completely accurate but sorting by gender is accurate
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote
Ven says:
Wednesday, October 30, 2024 at 1:45 pm
Making comments on the usefulness of data on a site about data is hardly trolling.
Biden didn’t call all Trump supporters floating garbage.
Billary didn’t call them deplorable.
Obama didn’t say they cling to their guns cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment.
Got it.
There is no pattern.
FUBAR says:
Wednesday, October 30, 2024 at 2:21 pm
Anyone can come on here and be a smartarse rather than engaging in the debate. You do it very well. You certainly did not engage with with the point I made.
But yes – there is a pattern. It’s the lies, dishonesty and misrepresentation made by supporters of the vilest and most dangerous Presidential candidate in the history of US elections going back to 1789.
Biden’s denial (that he said “supporter’s”, not “supporters”, in reference to the “garbage” remarks) is far more plausible than Trump’s denial (that he never met Mr. comedian and has no idea who he even is).
Also Biden’s still not running.
Why the sudden desperation FUBAR? Look at the betting markets, Trump is cruising to victory.
Right?
Frankly you gotta hate yourself intensely to support Trump and his sycophants
Poor little MAGA, so easily offended,so keen to cancel, so wanting to enforce their lifestyle on everyone else. No backbone. Poor MAGA,take away their penis-substitute guns and what have you got left but a swarm of quivering jellyfish.
Hillary called “half” of them deplorable, which statistically speaking at the time was probably fairly accurate.
The issue here is: when do chuds decide whether words and context do/don’t matter
Omar Comin’ says:
Wednesday, October 30, 2024 at 2:31 pm
You seem to think I support Trump or think he will win.
I have never said anything in support of Trump – I just call out the Democrats ineptitude and comments that are not supported by clear evidence. I called it for Harris many weeks ago.
Saw a bit of that massive prick Bannon’s release presser. Hasn’t changed, same dickhead, looked a bit cleaner, still into layering, walking like John Wayne.
If you had watched the Kamala Ellipse speech today, you would have noticed the sirens at the start.
It was a group of pro-Palestine demonstrators outside the perimeter – according to Sam Stein from the Bulwark who was there.
I missed it, Biden didn’t call Republicans are a pack of lying, dog-faced pony soldiers did he?
At least he didn’t say they have the morals of an alley cat
I made a bunch of money in 2020 betting that it would occur a second time.
I made a bunch of money in 2020 betting that it would occur a second time.
That’s weird. I tend to stay out of the polling error markets, extremely low liquidity.
Interesting theory. But I think the hate would be focussed outward rather than inward.
OK, Biden made the comment, not Harris, that’s the difference between now and 2016(Hillary herself on tape calling them deplorables). Kamala tomorrow when she’s asked about it can easily reply “I will be a President for all Americans, for those who voted for me and for those who voted for President Trump or any other candidate”.
Nate Silver is pretty convinced she’s lost the election because of this, but remember who writes Nate Silver’s cheques? Peter Thiel, in other words the very high profile backer of JD Vance.
Anyway, even if Biden hadn’t made the comment, were any Trump voters magically going to pivot over to Harris in the next 7 days? I doubt it.
I thought her speech today was the best one she’s given all campaign.
Not polling error markets, just the markets for individual state outcomes in the electoral college. By simply assuming that the polling error would be similar to 2016, I was able to correctly predict the outcome in every state.
(I feel this year might be different though, mainly due to the abortion factor)