Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
The US presidential election is next Tuesday, with results on Wednesday AEDT. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Kamala Harris has a 48.5-47.6 lead over Donald Trump (48.6-47.4 in my US election article for The Conversation on Monday). Harris’ national lead peaked on October 2, when she led by 49.4–45.9.
In presidential elections, the Electoral College is decisive, not the national popular vote. Trump leads by 0.5 points in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), after Harris had led there until last week. With slightly larger leads in North Carolina (16), Georgia (16) and Arizona (11), Trump leads in the Electoral College by 281-251 with Nevada’s six tied. If Harris wins Pennsylvania, she most likely wins the Electoral College, although she only leads by 0.3 points in Wisconsin (ten). Silver’s model gives Trump a 55% chance to win, while FiveThirtyEight gives him a 53% chance.
I will have an article for The Conversation tomorrow that also looks at the congressional races. On Monday, my final pre-election article for The Conversation will give poll closing times for next Wednesday. I will do a live blog here that day.
Update Thursday 12:38pm Today’s US election article for The Conversation says Trump’s edge in Pennsylvania could give him the Electoral College win, and also that Biden is a drag on Harris. Congressional elections appear to be trending to the Republicans.
Canadian provincial elections
From October 19 to Monday, there have been elections in the Canadian provinces of British Columbia (BC), New Brunswick (NB) and Saskatchewan. All these elections were held using first past the post.
At the October 19 BC election, the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) won 47 of the 93 seats (down ten since 2020), the Conservatives 44 and the Greens two (steady). The NDP retained government for a third successive term. Vote shares were 44.8% NDP (down 2.9%), 43.3% Conservatives (up 41.4%) and 8.2% Greens (down 6.8%).
The main BC conservative party used to be the BC Liberals, who are not part of the centre-left federal Liberals. But the BC Liberals were supplanted by the Conservatives during the last term, and didn’t contest any seats under their new BC United name.
At the October 21 NB election, the centre-left Liberals defeated a Conservative government, winning 31 of the 49 seats (up 14 since 2020), the Conservatives 16 (down 11) and the Greens two (down one). Vote shares were 48.2% Liberals (up 13.9%), 35.0% Conservatives (down 4.3%) and 13.8% Greens (down 1.5%).
At Monday’s Saskatchewan election, the conservative Saskatchewan Party (SP) won a fifth successive term with 35 of the 61 seats (down 13 since 2020) to 26 for the NDP (up 13). Vote shares were 52.9% SP (down 8.2%) and 39.4% NDP (up 7.6%). Postal votes are still to be counted, but the SP has definitely won 32 seats. Late polls that gave the NDP a narrow lead were wrong.
Update Thursday 12:38pm With most postals counted, the SP wins by 34 seats to 27 for the NDP from vote shares of 52.4-40.1.
LDP-led coalition loses majority in Japan
Of the 465 lower house Japanese seats, 289 are elected by FPTP and the remaining 176 using proportional representation in multi-member electorates. The conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) with its Komeito allies have governed almost continuously since 1955, with the last interruption after the 2009 election.
At Sunday’s election, the LDP won 191 seats (down 69 since 2021) and Komeito 24 (down eight). For the first time since 2009, the LDP and Komeito were short of the 233 seats needed for a majority. The centre-left Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) won 148 seats (up 52). Two other conservative parties won 38 and 28 seats, so the LDP, Komeito and one of these parties will be enough for the LDP to reach a majority and stay in power. The LDP won the FPTP seats by 132-104 over the CDP on vote shares of 38.5-29.0.
Moldova and Georgia
A referendum on joining the European Union was held in Moldova on October 20. The Yes case prevailed by just a 50.35-49.65 margin after No had led until near the end of the count. This referendum was only a first step towards Moldova joining the EU.
Georgia (the country) used national PR with a 5% threshold to elect its 150 seats. At Saturday’s election, the pro-Russia and autocratic Georgian Dream retained government for a fourth successive term, winning 89 of the 150 seats on 53.9% of the vote (up 5.7% since 2020). No other party won more than 11%. This election was marred by reports of ballot rigging and voter intimidation.
Worth noting, Harris is winning 53:44 in early voting in Arizona, where more than half of S expected votes have already been cast.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/10/29/politics/cnn-polls-arizona-nevada-trump-harris
Considering that registered republicans outnumber registered democrats 1.23 to 1 in Arizona and a near identical 1.21 to 1 in Arizona early voting, Harris’ lead amongst early voters cannot be dismissed as ‘democrats just like to vote early’.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/arizona-results
https://azsos.gov/elections/election-information/voter-registration-statistics
Assuming all registered voters vote for the party they registered with, Harris must be leading early voting amongst registered independents/others by 237k to 26k (with 40k voting a 3rd candidate).
So, one of two things are happening:
20% of registered independents have voted, and are voting Harris overwhelmingly (10 to 1).
Or large numbers of registered republicans are voting democrats.
I don’t see how either of those are consistent with a belief that Trump will win Arizona, when the ‘on the day’ votes are counted.
I’m inclined to believe what people say they have done, rather than what Nate silver (the gambling addict) thinks that people will do
Geoffrey Epstein Wednesday, October 30, 2024 at 3:51 pm
Gosh Nate Silver better watch his back, I feel he may have met his match in terms of telling everyone how good he is at predicting election outcomes here.
Edit: correction, forecasting
I predict 538 final forecast will be 50:50 unless of course owner abc news gets cold feet and insists the forecast is adjusted in favour of Trump. Same with the other aggregators. The betting will probably remain on it’s betting-bro trajectory, apropos of nothing in particular.
The thing I don’t understand about the betting markets is this: Let’s say that Polymarket is indeed being ‘played’ by pro-Trump types trying to create a perception that Trump is the runaway favourite. Then how does this leave the likes of Sportsbet here? They clearly don’t want to lose money and take silly risks by tying their odds to the likes of Polymarket but in fact those odds are more or less the same as of a few minutes ago.
It is true, as someone else observed here, that Sportsbet has placed a financial cap on betting this election, one that was apparently not in place at the 2020 election, but given the high level of interest in the this election, offering odds of almost 2-1 on a Harris victory surely leaves them dangerously financially exposed doesn’t it given what the poll aggregators are saying about the state of play? 2-1 in a two-horse race is almost unheard of.
What’s going on?
alias Sportsbet are presumably a relatively small market and they can lay bets off on Betfair without much expense.
On Betfair you have traders arbitraging between Polymarket and Betfair. There is a lot of friction with this due to Polymarket being cryptocurrency based, so it doesn’t balance the odds perfectly.
Gosh Nate Silver better watch his back, I feel he may have met his match in terms of telling everyone how good he is at predicting election outcomes here.
I’m not good at predicting election outcomes in general, but in 2020 a simple gamble that the previous election’s polling error would be repeated was enough to get every state right (obviously plus some element of fluke). Point is I wouldn’t be so sure that the people betting on it happening a third time are all just Maga morons who are about to lose their money. Although personally my gut says it won’t be that bad for the dems this time around.
Biden’s comment, or perceptions of it, are very unhelpful to the Harris campaign, particularly in the wake of the ‘Porto Rico’ comments that seemed to giving Dems some momentum. It won’t necessarily sway votes to Trump, but is likely to motivate Trump supporters to vote. Will this cost Harris the election? I think broader forces are at play that are more likely to influence the overall result.
@alias – betting companies don’t care if the market is rational. They care that the scales are balanced.
Their formula makes it basically impossible for them to lose.
If Trump loses, Sportsbet takes their profits from Harris betters and pays most of it to the trump betters.
If there’s wasn’t enough $ from Harris betters to pay that, they would change their odds until more people bet on Harris.
Gambling companies don’t take risks.
If Trump loses, Sportsbet takes their profits from Harris betters and pays most of it to the trump betters.
Sportsbet tried something like this on the Australian federal election in 2019 but it’s not a strategy that is consistent with profitability.
Jeez is this thread full of professional gamblers or something!?! No sooner do we wrench the conversation away from betting than someone yanks it back again. 😡
It’s a boring subject and indicative of poor impulse control.
So, one of two things are happening:
20% of registered independents have voted, and are voting Harris overwhelmingly (10 to 1).
Or large numbers of registered republicans are voting democrats.
Voice Endeavour, both things are occurring. Anecdotally many Gen Z voters are registering for neither party but are voting for Harris/Walz in the main. Also, there is a sizeable cohort of ‘traditional’ Republicans who are voting for the Democrats.
Minor nitpick –
betters: people like C@tmomma
bettors: degenerate gamblers
I would call myself an amateur gambler not a professional. Anyway if gambling were so bad Labor would ban gambling advertising.
Trump is now leading the Pennsylvania polling average. Which means unless the polling error breaks in the opposite direction to the last two elections the people on polymarket betting for a Trump win will be correct.
Which means, incidentally, that bitcoin will rip.
Yes, though also…I note that for all the hand-wringing over Biden’s comment, it hasn’t seemed to move the betting markets at all so far. Business hours in AU at least, so would expect the AU markets to move if there was anything in it.
By the same measure Kamala’s speech also had no effect. 🙁
Seadog @ #NaN Wednesday, October 30th, 2024 – 1:39 pm
Couldn’t have said it better myself.
The Big Question is whether the US Greens can divert enough votes from Harris to ensure that Trump becomes the Post Enlightenment President.
I am sure our resident Greens can explain how it all works out for the best.
C@tmomma, fair cop but before I shut up about this can I just say, this will be the biggest event in Betfair history by a mile, and unlike Polymarket that is real money.
Boring to you perhaps C@t but not to others. Let them have their fun and just scroll by.
‘Boerwar says:
Wednesday, October 30, 2024 at 5:03 pm
The Big Question is whether the US Greens can divert enough votes from Harris to ensure that Trump becomes the Post Enlightenment President.
I am sure our resident Greens can explain how it all works out for the best.’
================
Is there a Greens Stein factor in the betting odds?
C@t – The U.S election threads frankly have been ruined by people who are only here to talk about gambling, betting, how much money they can make from betting on a Trump victory, or promoting Polymarket as apparently an accurate guide of how the election result really will go.
The Biden thing won’t harm Harris – if her campaign are really worried, she can just put out a statement saying that as President, she’d unify the country and govern for her voters and Trump voters too.
I could be very wrong, but I feel like this isn’t 2016, the Harris campaign unlike the Hillary Clinton campaign have been camped in those rust belt states and Georgia and North Carolina and Nevada and Arizona, and the polling suggests she will get that 1 electoral vote out of Nebraska too. I think her chances of getting past 270 are pretty good.
Sure, Trump’s base are as loyal as ever, but as Victoria and Confessions have argued, I feel like women are angry this year and they’ll get Harris home, especially Republican women in the suburbs(who might vote differently from their husbands). Trump’s ceiling is 47%, if he can’t get past that, he doesn’t win, simple as that.
As for North Carolina, the fact that the Governor’s race will be easily won by Democrat Josh Stine, the Attorney General, could have a reverse coat tail effect for Kamala Harris.
Omar Comin’ @ #NaN Wednesday, October 30th, 2024 – 5:03 pm
Fair enough. However, I’m sure there are forums for mug punters. 😉
Democracy Sausage,
I honestly can’t find any reporting of ‘the Biden thing’. I looked on the landing pages of The Washington Post and The Sydney Morning Herald and could not find a mention of it. I guess it’s front page news on all the Murdoch media outlets though. 😐
Harris is already winning. She’s in front where it counts: in ballots cast in the swing States. To win from here Trump has to catch up. However, this will prove to be very difficult to achieve. The Republican Party is split, having been torn apart by Trump himself.
The women of America most likely will agree wholeheartedly with the proposition that Trump and his supporters are garbage. This is a fair description of the sexist, racist reactionary haters that make up the MAGA constituencies. Trump is a convicted criminal, a traitor, a racist demagogue and a swindling neo-Nazi. It is time – as the Puerto Ricans say – to put out the garbage.
They belong in the electoral dumpster.
Intelligence Agencies mouthpiece WaPo declining to endorse Harris is a heads up to Dem flunkies
that, should any vote stealin’ occur in Swing States
the Mighty Wurlitzer is switced to “Off” in 2024.
—————————————–
The Harris defeat will be of an order that she won’t be able to seriously run in 2028.
…I’m sure there are forums for mug punters.
Oh god can you imagine 🙁 🙁
https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/united-states/joe-biden-calls-donald-trump-supporters-garbage-during-kamala-harris-campaign-call-as-vp-pleads-for-unity-at-ellipse-rally/news-story/416a6ee346a1100d295a60603223708f
Lol. Sky News. 😀
Anyway, I thought Trump had described Joe Biden as mentally diminished? So you can’t take what he says seriously then. 😉
On the day she delivered her Ellipse speech (29th October, 2024 USET) , was the 100th day of her campaign.
Badthinker @ #76 Wednesday, October 30th, 2024 – 5:53 pm
Now that’s a very interesting piece of editing. One might almost believe … nah, surely a reputable media outlet wouldn’t misquote him like that deliberately … oh, wait – that was Sky News. 🙁
Clean up on Aisle the White House:
Jonathan Lemire
10/29/2024, 9:19pm ETUpdated: 10/29/2024, 11:16pm ET
The White House scrambled Tuesday night to clean up a remark by President Joe Biden, who appeared to refer to Donald Trump’s supporters as “garbage” — though the president and his aides vehemently denied that was his intention.
“The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporter’s — his — his demonization of Latinos is unconscionable, and it’s un-American,” Biden said in a Zoom call with the organization Voto Latino, a liberal nonprofit group, on Tuesday evening. “It’s totally contrary to everything we’ve done, everything we’ve been.”
Conservatives denounced the remarks instantly, taking them as a mean-spirited characterization of ordinary Trump supporters.
Biden, a childhood stutterer who routinely shifts course in mid-sentence and rambles, posted on social media that that was not his meaning.
“Earlier today I referred to the hateful rhetoric about Puerto Rico spewed by Trump’s supporter at his Madison Square Garden rally as garbage—which is the only word I can think of to describe it,” Biden posted. “His demonization of Latinos is unconscionable. That’s all I meant to say. The comments at that rally don’t reflect who we are as a nation.”
A White House spokesperson said Biden was talking about the intolerance of Tony Hinchcliffe, the comedian who spoke at Trump’s rally.
In addition, the White House, as is customary when the president speaks, released a transcript of Biden’s remarks. It included an apostrophe in a key word — “supporter’s” — narrowing the apparent implication of the sentence. A number of top Republicans, including Sen. JD Vance, Trump’s vice presidential nominee, and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, accused Biden of saying “supporters,” which would make it a condemnation of a broad swath of the electorate.
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/10/29/2024-elections-live-coverage-updates-analysis/biden-sparks-garbage-firestorm-00186187
”
Teapot Domesays:
Wednesday, October 30, 2024 at 4:28 pm
Biden’s comment, or perceptions of it, are very unhelpful to the Harris campaign, particularly in the wake of the ‘Porto Rico’ comments that seemed to giving Dems some momentum. It won’t necessarily sway votes to Trump, but is likely to motivate Trump supporters to vote. Will this cost Harris the election? I think broader forces are at play that are more likely to influence the overall result
”
Aren’t we glad to see the back of Biden? Biden was always gaffe pron(makes comments without thinking of consequences)
What, you mean the mean Republicans are attacking poor old Joe Biden over his speech impediment? Is there no depth they won’t sink to? 🙂
Have to be a little careful with stuff like that though. A lot of the women of America are married to or in relationships with those Trump supporters. Or have them as sons, fathers, brothers.
Biden’s ‘garbage’ gaffe is having the Streisand effect. It is keeping the Puerto Rico garbage island, and trump’s repeated descriptions of the USA as a garbage can in the news cycle
Sprocket_ says:
Wednesday, October 30, 2024 at 6:25 pm
Biden’s ‘garbage’ gaffe is having the Streisand effect. It is keeping the Puerto Rico garbage island, and trump’s repeated descriptions of the USA as a garbage can in the news cycle
It’s certainly struck a chord with me. Trump is rubbish and is about to be sent to the tip.
You don’t call supporters of your opponents “garbage” or “Deplorables”, even if many of them are…
But women in the privacy of the polling booth or filling out a postal vote won’t have their husbands standing over them, telling them what to vote for.
Oh, and Trump regularly refers to Democrats as “the enemy within”, is that somehow better than Biden referring to Trump voters as garbage?
Funny how that works, you should hear some of the things Trump calls Harris’s supporters and it doesn’t seem to do him any harm.
Etc. Etc. “A rule for me and a rule for thee.” “So much for the “Tolerant Left””.
I saw someone call the Tesla Cybertruck the “Deplorean” the other day, I thought, that’s great.
Badthinker
I love how you pound the gavel on something unknowable “The Harris defeat will be of an order that she won’t be able to seriously run in 2028.” That’s some chutzpah! Funny how those of the right behave like supremely overconfident extroverts while the left are more in the handwringing introvert basket. Give me an introvert any day.
Trump is a hater and a divider. His business model is to set aside sections of the community for blame and demonisation. This includes his core opponents, who he derides as “elites”, who see him for what he is, plus various minorities who either can’t vote or if they can would be unlikely to vote for him, plus class enemies (of the real elites), like organised labour. Insults are part of the game plan.
The rules are different for the two sides.
Cripes I hate the present. So God-King-Emperor Trump can do whatever he likes but if the Democrats put a toe out of line then it’s bad.
Here is John McEntee, director of White House personnel during Donald Trump’s presidency, openly arguing that only men should have the right to vote.
https://x.com/JohnMcEntee28/status/1850959156116627716?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1850959156116627716%7Ctwgr%5Ebb6cb98895f913bd7b109b4d57f39df740015e8a%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2024%2F10%2F29%2F2280685%2F-Inside-the-internet-cesspool-that-made-MAGA-super-weird
This may be over-simplistic but I fear the following is what may be happening re the late deciding, low information types:
Back in 2019, I remember being in a few pubs during the Australian federal election campaign and seeing TV reports of the day’s events with the sound down. Almost invariably Morrison was grinning broadly, wielding the tongs at some barbie or another and generally looking positive. Shorten, campaigning in the election he supposedly couldn’t lose, very often looked furrowed of brow, worried, anxious.
The imagery from today’s Ellipse event was better, but much of what I’ve seen of Harris in terms of body language and raw imagery has been defensive. Her radiant smile is of course helpful but in interviews, she often sits with arms crossed across her lower body in a classic defensive posture. Trump, in all his utter awfulness, projects strength and assurance with all those TV-practised moves such as the “air accordion” thing he does. There’s no getting around the fact that, leaving aside the despicability of the man and his policies, that this imagery would be assuring to someone deciding at the last moment.
I fear that at a time of continuing economic hardship at home for many, notwithstanding the excellent condition of the overall US economy, and increasing wars abroad, that many of these undecideds will act in the worst possible way and vote for Trump. I really hope I’m wrong.
Stop stressing Alias & Kirsdarke.
This time next week you’ll be wondering what you were ever worried about.
The word “cuck” is uttered a thousand times a day by MAGA Republicans, referencing a sexual kink in which you watch your partner have sex with someone else, often a stranger. I don’t kink-shame people—what consenting adults do between themselves is between them—but to conservatives, “cuck” is meant as an emasculating term. To MAGA, everyone they don’t like is a cuck. It started with the idea that liberal men were weak, so unable to tame their wives from being taken by other men. But it expanded to attacks on Republicans for doing things MAGA didn’t like, and even tankie leftists like Glenn Greenwald have adopted it.
“Royce White—Steve Bannon Protege Who Called Our Reporter a “Cuck”—Endorsed by Minnesota GOP for Senate
The former NBA player and Black Lives Matter protester leader became a MAGA star spewing galaxy-brain conspiracies about Jews. Now, he’s got the stamp of approval from the GOP.
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2024/05/royce-white-us-senate-2024-republican-nomination-blm-george-floyd-nba/
“White won the endorsement of the Republican party to face Sen. Amy Klobuchar in Minnesota.”
I hope you’re right Been There. But I would guess, even in a best-case scenario, we quite probably won’t yet know the outcome this time next week.
Trump is weak, MAGA males are lost and totally incapable of expressing a masculinity that has any relevance in the modern post-industrial world. They sound ridiculous and desperate when they accuse libs of being ‘cucks’. They project a raw aggression that they’re incapable of backing up because they’re mostly corn-syrup lardarses that struggle to get off the sofa (have you seen the incredible obesity stats from the red states?) They are probably the saddest expression of masculinity existing on the planet.
And here I was thinking that “cuck” was just a mispronunciation by semi-literates…