Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
The US presidential election is next Tuesday, with results on Wednesday AEDT. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Kamala Harris has a 48.5-47.6 lead over Donald Trump (48.6-47.4 in my US election article for The Conversation on Monday). Harris’ national lead peaked on October 2, when she led by 49.4–45.9.
In presidential elections, the Electoral College is decisive, not the national popular vote. Trump leads by 0.5 points in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), after Harris had led there until last week. With slightly larger leads in North Carolina (16), Georgia (16) and Arizona (11), Trump leads in the Electoral College by 281-251 with Nevada’s six tied. If Harris wins Pennsylvania, she most likely wins the Electoral College, although she only leads by 0.3 points in Wisconsin (ten). Silver’s model gives Trump a 55% chance to win, while FiveThirtyEight gives him a 53% chance.
I will have an article for The Conversation tomorrow that also looks at the congressional races. On Monday, my final pre-election article for The Conversation will give poll closing times for next Wednesday. I will do a live blog here that day.
Update Thursday 12:38pm Today’s US election article for The Conversation says Trump’s edge in Pennsylvania could give him the Electoral College win, and also that Biden is a drag on Harris. Congressional elections appear to be trending to the Republicans.
Canadian provincial elections
From October 19 to Monday, there have been elections in the Canadian provinces of British Columbia (BC), New Brunswick (NB) and Saskatchewan. All these elections were held using first past the post.
At the October 19 BC election, the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) won 47 of the 93 seats (down ten since 2020), the Conservatives 44 and the Greens two (steady). The NDP retained government for a third successive term. Vote shares were 44.8% NDP (down 2.9%), 43.3% Conservatives (up 41.4%) and 8.2% Greens (down 6.8%).
The main BC conservative party used to be the BC Liberals, who are not part of the centre-left federal Liberals. But the BC Liberals were supplanted by the Conservatives during the last term, and didn’t contest any seats under their new BC United name.
At the October 21 NB election, the centre-left Liberals defeated a Conservative government, winning 31 of the 49 seats (up 14 since 2020), the Conservatives 16 (down 11) and the Greens two (down one). Vote shares were 48.2% Liberals (up 13.9%), 35.0% Conservatives (down 4.3%) and 13.8% Greens (down 1.5%).
At Monday’s Saskatchewan election, the conservative Saskatchewan Party (SP) won a fifth successive term with 35 of the 61 seats (down 13 since 2020) to 26 for the NDP (up 13). Vote shares were 52.9% SP (down 8.2%) and 39.4% NDP (up 7.6%). Postal votes are still to be counted, but the SP has definitely won 32 seats. Late polls that gave the NDP a narrow lead were wrong.
Update Thursday 12:38pm With most postals counted, the SP wins by 34 seats to 27 for the NDP from vote shares of 52.4-40.1.
LDP-led coalition loses majority in Japan
Of the 465 lower house Japanese seats, 289 are elected by FPTP and the remaining 176 using proportional representation in multi-member electorates. The conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) with its Komeito allies have governed almost continuously since 1955, with the last interruption after the 2009 election.
At Sunday’s election, the LDP won 191 seats (down 69 since 2021) and Komeito 24 (down eight). For the first time since 2009, the LDP and Komeito were short of the 233 seats needed for a majority. The centre-left Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) won 148 seats (up 52). Two other conservative parties won 38 and 28 seats, so the LDP, Komeito and one of these parties will be enough for the LDP to reach a majority and stay in power. The LDP won the FPTP seats by 132-104 over the CDP on vote shares of 38.5-29.0.
Moldova and Georgia
A referendum on joining the European Union was held in Moldova on October 20. The Yes case prevailed by just a 50.35-49.65 margin after No had led until near the end of the count. This referendum was only a first step towards Moldova joining the EU.
Georgia (the country) used national PR with a 5% threshold to elect its 150 seats. At Saturday’s election, the pro-Russia and autocratic Georgian Dream retained government for a fourth successive term, winning 89 of the 150 seats on 53.9% of the vote (up 5.7% since 2020). No other party won more than 11%. This election was marred by reports of ballot rigging and voter intimidation.
how about Elon Musk’s super PAC calling Vice President Kamala Harris a “C-Word”?
https://cdn.prod.dailykos.com/images/1361717/large/Ga-k2PVXkAAvaDJ.jpeg?1730221406
Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo notes that “among GOP operatives and staffers under 30 or so the majority, maybe the great majority had their political awakenings on sites like 4chan, 8chan, various far-right, incel and incel adjacent online communities. It crops up in various ways if you know where to look. It’s why [Florida Gov. Ron] DeSantis had those weird frankly homoerotic campaign vids during the primaries.”
Marshall adds that these young men are “awash in this world of casual racism, ironic provocation, not just misogyny but a weird emotionally-stunted kind of misogyny that to normal people isn’t just often either offensive or weird but even kind of inexplicable.”
Some commentators are trying to rationalise Tony Hinchcliffe racist diatribe as roast comedy. They said wasn’t very good roast comedy (but Hinchcliffe has always been a hack) but it is roast comedy.
The main difference is worth roast comedy you’re doing it to friends who you’ve known for years and love and you can make jokes at them that you wouldn’t say in a million years to other folks, you can’t do roast comedy at a regular rally, it doesn’t work. Especially if you just sit there and don’t tell jokes so much as just make bigoted generalizations. That’s what makes Tony a hack, he confused “saying something cutting with an edge of truth to it” with “screaming slurs and appealing to sewer dwellers”.
Wasn’t it only a few days ago that Vance said “I think that we have to stop getting so offended at every little thing in the United States of America”?
The MAGA bullies are only “strong” when in a group of like minded individuals. Separate them out one by one and they will go to water. The truly strong people are those who endure violent opposition for the sake of improving the lives of others – think of the persecution suffered by Nelson Mandela or the non-violent work of Martin Luther King Jr which ultimately cost him his life.
Washington Post cancellations exceed 250,000. That’s 10% of the total. I’d love to see the look on Bezos’ face if Trump loses next week.
Been There @ #96 Wednesday, October 30th, 2024 – 7:38 pm
As far as I can see, these are the possible outcomes:
– The result really is tied / close in which case we won’t know the outcome for days, possibly weeks.
– Trump really does have a ceiling around 46.5% of the popular vote, and he struggles to get the numbers he needs in the swing states. Counting will still go on for days, likely known at the weekend.
– Pollsters have autocorrected too conservatively to course correct the historic underperformance of the Trump vote, and Trump’s polls are worse than they are now, and Harris wins but not bigly. Results known in the next couple days.
– There is a ‘shy patriot’ (thanks sprocket!) vote this year of Republican women who say they’re voting for Trump but will vote for Harris. Liz Cheney and the Lincoln Project are trying to tap this group with their comments and latest ads. Depends on how large this group is and where they’re voting – results could be known within days or up to a week.
– It’s a blow out either way – for Trump or for Harris. Results evident that night or the next day max.
A problem is the different times the vote closes in different states and counties, and the different counting in different states. Some states don’t start counting ballots until the polls close! PA is one of those states.
More here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/10/29/poll-close-times/
Bellwether @ #106 Wednesday, October 30th, 2024 – 9:03 pm
Do we know how many have cancelled their Amazon Prime subscriptions? I had one last year but gave it up after the trial period because there was never anything good to watch.
Well, Harrisneros, you can have it either ways.
Perhaps Biden called all Trump voters garbage, perhaps he singled out one person and used the MSM to attack the guy, potentially putting the guy’s life in danger.
Bellwether says:
Wednesday, October 30, 2024 at 9:03 pm
Bezos doesn’t give a fuck. He could pay for it with no subscriptions and wouldn’t even notice it.
Journalists have a far too high opinion of themselves.
Badthinker @ #NaN Wednesday, October 30th, 2024 – 9:05 pm
Trump does that every day. Puts people’s lives in danger via his mad as a cut snake followers targeting anyone who he deems has crossed him. Republican or Democrat.
Bellwether @ #NaN Wednesday, October 30th, 2024 – 9:03 pm
Wait until after the election when people like sprocket_ and I do it too.
Maybe so, but it’s good to see them with principles, something their boss seems to lack.
Ven @ #NaN Wednesday, October 30th, 2024 – 7:41 pm
And who was discovered to be a cuck? Former Trump bestie (until they aren’t), Jerry Falwell Jr. Not to mention Mr CPAC himself, Matt Schlapp.
‘Like a lovefest’: Trump refuses to apologize for racist NYC rally
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/29/2280673/-Like-a-lovefest-Trump-refuses-to-apologize-for-racist-NYC-rally?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_recent_news&pm_medium=web
“Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump held what was billed as a “news conference” Tuesday morning at his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida, where reporters wondered if he’d apologize for the racist remarks made at his Madison Square Garden rally that labeled Puerto Rico as a “floating island of garbage.”
But Trump never apologized.
Instead, it was like Festivus came a few months early for the former president, who showed up more than an hour late and aired his usual grievances in a low-energy speech before finally defending his racist rally as a “love fest.”
“I don’t think anybody has ever seen anything like what happened the other night at Madison Square Garden,” Trump said. “The love, the love in that room. It was breathtaking. And you could’ve filled it many, many times with the people who weren’t able to get in… It was like a lovefest and it was my honor to be involved.”
”
Although, Trump campaign team called it a “Press Conference”, but he didn’t take a single question from reporters.
Bannon’s lost a bit of weight, as you’d expect. And his skin looks clearer with the alcohol. But I thought they made you cut your hair in prison?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Jzco3g6qc
Steve777 @ #NaN Wednesday, October 30th, 2024 – 6:59 pm
Because he didn’t. He called Trump supporter, Tony Hinchcliffe’s material ‘garbage’.
In an interview with Sean Hannity:
Trump denies knowing comedian who told crude joke about Puerto Rico: ‘I have no idea who he is’
Trump says comedian Tony Hinchcliffe said ‘some bad things’
https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-denies-knowing-comedian-who-told-crude-joke-about-puerto-rico-i-have-no-idea-who-he-is
FUBAR @ #23 Wednesday, October 30th, 2024 – 10:40 am
No one gets more offended than the “fuck your feelings” maga crowd.
FUBAR @ #110 Wednesday, October 30th, 2024 – 9:05 pm
Indeed. You wonder why newspapers bother with them at all these days.
Cat
“ And who was discovered to be a cuck? Former Trump bestie (until they aren’t), Jerry Falwell Jr. Not to mention Mr CPAC himself, Matt Schlapp.”
And to think Walz only called them “weird”. He was being too kind.
It so often seems to be the way that the religious fundies who ramble in about family and traditional values have deeply screwed up personal lives. So often they are overcompensating in their outrage.
A R at 6.13 pm, Ven at 8.32 pm
Did you see the recent ABC story (7.30 probably) on a lapsed industrial town in Pennsylvania?
One man with a strong dose of analytical inadequacy was wishing the campaign would end immediately, so relations with his wife, a woman who finds Trump repulsive, could soon get “back to normal”.
His wife was not interviewed. Many women in the US may doubt the decency and integrity of their husbands/partners if they sacrifice women’s rights to vote for a notorious misogynist.
Although there are other factors Trump’s denigration of women will surely lose him many votes.
A few weeks ago the gender gap was reported as 19%, i.e. 19% more women than men intend to vote for Harris. If the LNP had a gender vote deficit that large they would always lose.
I would really like to see a rational mathematical model by which this is a 50/50 election.Convince me with something logical because the only hope I see for Harris is a polling error – on current polling aggregates she is like a 20% chance.
The polling aggregates are suggesting a 3% swing to Trump on a uniform swing Trump wins every swing state so either the Democrats are going to have to pull off the mother of all sandbagging operations (and also hope an outlier state doesn’t fall) or the polls are going to have to be wrong.
Of course they could be wrong and underestimate the Harris vote but they could also be underestimating Trump that is all tea leaf reading, you can only go on the numbers and on polling Trump is probably going to be the next President of the USA whether we like it or not.
Socrates @ #NaN Wednesday, October 30th, 2024 – 10:11 pm
I could add to the list.
The polling aggregates
That’s the problem in one. They’re being gamed by the Trump campaign to favour him. He admitted it this week in a podcast.
howlin wolves @ #124 Wednesday, October 30th, 2024 – 9:20 pm
If you go by recently released polling Harris is around +2 nationally.
You can split hairs over which battlegrounds she wins/loses on a uniform ~2% underperformance relative to Biden, but there’s not really any reason to assume a uniform swing. At +2 nationally, Harris can win or lose the Electoral College. +2 nationally is basically Hillary’s result, which was good for a very narrow loss. Calling it a coin flip appears fair.
Have you seen the crosstabs? 🙂
Really though, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s the second thing. It all hinges on the female turnout, and if the ladies can keep the current trend going.
Confessions at 9.03 pm
With respect your second, third and fourth scenarios are just different versions of the same basic result, a clear Harris win.
The different versions mean that voters may have a range of strong reasons to prefer Harris, but aversion to Trump’s misogyny is a broad one.
So there are only three possible outcomes: close to a tie, a clear Harris win, or a surprising win of the distorted Electoral College vote by Trump, who would (as in 2016) lose the popular vote nation wide.
There is one certainty amidst the speculation about the Presidential election result.
This is that no Labor leader will state the obvious, that the US needs sustained tutoring in the art of real democracy.
Cat
“I could add to the list.“
I don’t doubt it.
My view hasn’t changed, polling is going to find it hard to explain the result.
Kimmel hones in on Trump’s health policy, which he has been talking about for some years but without any prospect of it coming to fruition. The latest iteration is a concept for one, which he referred to in the only debate:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oy0zq8YzY9w
A sea of people in Washington DC (watch video)
Alex Cole
@acnewsitics
This is what democracy looks like.
https://x.com/acnewsitics/status/1851478095754133861?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1851478095754133861%7Ctwgr%5E0b844e721d7addb97b154f279306b89403c2b1fa%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2024%2F10%2F30%2F2280739%2F-Abbreviated-Pundit-Roundup-Real-humor-joy-and-finishing-strong-within-the-Margin-of-Effort
Overflow crowd at Ellipse
Look all, don’t worry about the polls.
This time next week the party hats and streamers will be out in the Democrats camps.
How confident am I?
I’m having a test run right now!
Don’t say you weren’t told!
Fox 5 Atlanta:
Puerto Rican community in Georgia incensed over racist joke at Trump rally
Members of Georgia’s Puerto Rican and Latino communities expressed their outrage at a news conference in Norcross on Tuesday.
“Words matter, especially if somebody is going to be the leader of this nation,” said community leader Grace Williams.
The Trump campaign has tried to distance itself from the comedian, saying Hinchcliffe’s joke about Puerto Rico does not reflect the views of President Trump or the campaign.
Just a week before Election Day, speakers said the vulgar remarks could hurt Trump in key battleground states.
“One-hundred thousand Puerto Ricans live in the metro area, and we vote,” said Williams.
https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/puerto-rican-community-georgia-incensed-over-racist-joke-trump-rally
Patrick Schuh
@PatrickSchuh
In the statewide early vote window so far, about 35k more likely GOP voters likely used the in-person option; 73% of this GOP vote came from frequent voters. 93k mid-score voters also voted over the weekend; nat’l polling con’t suggest these early voters are break Dem
1:47 AM · Oct 30, 2024
·
2,160
Views
Patrick Schuh
@PatrickSchuh
Nearly 40% of all registered, modeled Dems are in this early vote pool (requested a ballot or voted) vs. 28% of probable GOP voters. The share of likely infrequent Dem ballots has grown slightly to 32% vs. 23% of Rep ballots; Dems have a 195k vote advantage here alone.
1:47 AM · Oct 30, 2024
·
2,046
Views
Jonathan V Last/The Bulwark:
“What More Do You People Want from Kamala Harris? (Part Deux)
• She’s done everything voters could reasonably have asked for.
• Kamala Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee a hundred days ago. In that time she:
• Unified the Democratic party.
• Reversed Biden’s polling deficit and took the lead over Trump.
• Organized a successful convention.
• Created a policy framework for her prospective administration.
• Pivoted to the center on nearly every issue: From domestic energy production, to gun reform, to immigration.
• Absolutely schlonged Trump in their debate.
• Performed somewhere between adequately and exceptionally in every single media interview.
• Spent time with several non-traditional media outlets.
• Gave almost unfailingly good speeches in front of giant crowds.
• Performed heroic levels outreach to Republicans and swing voters by appearing on Fox News and campaigning with the likes of Liz Cheney—while explicitly inviting and welcoming Republican voters into her coalition.
Harris did not play perfect baseball—you or I could sketch out a handful of things we wish she had done differently. Or better. But the perfect campaign does not exist.
“
Watch the amazing video. This is what a ton of campaign funding money can buy. Dazzling.
Mike Nellis
@MikeNellis
I’m insanely jealous of
@KamalaHQ
for renting the Vegas dome. I’ve pitched multiple clients on it. Came close once—so, so cool.
https://x.com/MikeNellis/status/1851303367273824368?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1851303367273824368%7Ctwgr%5E553be3478d79323dcdda4d7cf132a6f9107d3cfb%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2024%2F10%2F30%2F2280739%2F-Abbreviated-Pundit-Roundup-Real-humor-joy-and-finishing-strong-within-the-Margin-of-Effort
Yet another early vote poll, this from Noble Predictive Insights, out this a.m. :
NPI NATIONAL POLL OF RECORD: Harris Leads Trump by 3 Points
According to the poll, 37% of likely voters report that they have already cast their ballot and 63% have not voted yet. Harris leads by 22 points among those who have already voted (60% to 38%) while Trump leads by 10 points among those who have yet to vote (50% to 40%).
National polling says Harris wins the popular vote, this means nothing. Being tied in Wisconsin and behind in Pennsylvania is terminal for Harris. She needs a miracle.
If she is lucky enough to win in Wisconsin and Nevada and North Carolina (only conceivable due to the ridiculousness of that state’s republican gubernatorial candidate) then she might, just, be able to scrape across without Pennsylvania. If the polls are understating her support in all four, she’ll win. That would be a surprise like 2016 in reverse, but it’s possible. It’s a real nail-biter and the national polling is completely irrelevant.
I get 51/49 in Harris’s favor when I use those numbers. Rounding, I guess?
The gospel according to Geoffrey Epstein.
Disregard all you have ever been told!
By the way you could have chosen a different moniker.
a r says Wednesday, October 30, 2024 at 10:37 pm
The average error in presidential polling is something like 4%. All the swing states and national polls are within the margin of error. Anyone saying why Harris or Trump is certain to win is just speculating at best and most likely trying to get clicks from the faithful.
Have you heard of the electoral college sir? You may remember it from such elections as 2000 and 2016.
A R: “I get 51/49 in Harris’s favor when I use those numbers.”
I get 47.4 (Harris) – 45.6 (Trump), without eliminating votes for ‘other’ / undecided.
If Trump gets Pennsylvania he only needs one of Wisconsin, Nevada or North Carolina. Harris would need all three. All three are exactly tied in the polling averages. Trump is ahead in the Pennsylvania average.
That’s why Trump is the favorite to win as of right now, unless the polling averages are wrong in the opposite direction from how they were wrong in the last two Trump elections. (Which they might be – Obama outperformed his polling in 2012)
Christ, it’s on a knife edge right now. Desperately hoping the inevitable polling error will be in the Democrats’ favour come Tuesday.
“… while Trump leads by 10 points among those who have yet to vote (50% to 40%).”
Otherwise known as “no votes.”
Vote, or it didn’t happen.
The latest CNN SSRS Poll of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin:
https://youtu.be/lI2sTmQfdRA?si=iOEyynypyLhBPGvJ