US presidential election minus seven days

Donald Trump has a slight edge in the Electoral College, according to forecast models. Also covered: three Canadian provincial elections and electoral events in Japan, Moldova and Georgia.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The US presidential election is next Tuesday, with results on Wednesday AEDT. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Kamala Harris has a 48.5-47.6 lead over Donald Trump (48.6-47.4 in my US election article for The Conversation on Monday). Harris’ national lead peaked on October 2, when she led by 49.4–45.9.

In presidential elections, the Electoral College is decisive, not the national popular vote. Trump leads by 0.5 points in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), after Harris had led there until last week. With slightly larger leads in North Carolina (16), Georgia (16) and Arizona (11), Trump leads in the Electoral College by 281-251 with Nevada’s six tied. If Harris wins Pennsylvania, she most likely wins the Electoral College, although she only leads by 0.3 points in Wisconsin (ten). Silver’s model gives Trump a 55% chance to win, while FiveThirtyEight gives him a 53% chance.

I will have an article for The Conversation tomorrow that also looks at the congressional races. On Monday, my final pre-election article for The Conversation will give poll closing times for next Wednesday. I will do a live blog here that day.

Update Thursday 12:38pm Today’s US election article for The Conversation says Trump’s edge in Pennsylvania could give him the Electoral College win, and also that Biden is a drag on Harris. Congressional elections appear to be trending to the Republicans.

Canadian provincial elections

From October 19 to Monday, there have been elections in the Canadian provinces of British Columbia (BC), New Brunswick (NB) and Saskatchewan. All these elections were held using first past the post.

At the October 19 BC election, the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) won 47 of the 93 seats (down ten since 2020), the Conservatives 44 and the Greens two (steady). The NDP retained government for a third successive term. Vote shares were 44.8% NDP (down 2.9%), 43.3% Conservatives (up 41.4%) and 8.2% Greens (down 6.8%).

The main BC conservative party used to be the BC Liberals, who are not part of the centre-left federal Liberals. But the BC Liberals were supplanted by the Conservatives during the last term, and didn’t contest any seats under their new BC United name.

At the October 21 NB election, the centre-left Liberals defeated a Conservative government, winning 31 of the 49 seats (up 14 since 2020), the Conservatives 16 (down 11) and the Greens two (down one). Vote shares were 48.2% Liberals (up 13.9%), 35.0% Conservatives (down 4.3%) and 13.8% Greens (down 1.5%).

At Monday’s Saskatchewan election, the conservative Saskatchewan Party (SP) won a fifth successive term with 35 of the 61 seats (down 13 since 2020) to 26 for the NDP (up 13). Vote shares were 52.9% SP (down 8.2%) and 39.4% NDP (up 7.6%). Postal votes are still to be counted, but the SP has definitely won 32 seats. Late polls that gave the NDP a narrow lead were wrong.

Update Thursday 12:38pm With most postals counted, the SP wins by 34 seats to 27 for the NDP from vote shares of 52.4-40.1.

LDP-led coalition loses majority in Japan

Of the 465 lower house Japanese seats, 289 are elected by FPTP and the remaining 176 using proportional representation in multi-member electorates. The conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) with its Komeito allies have governed almost continuously since 1955, with the last interruption after the 2009 election.

At Sunday’s election, the LDP won 191 seats (down 69 since 2021) and Komeito 24 (down eight). For the first time since 2009, the LDP and Komeito were short of the 233 seats needed for a majority. The centre-left Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) won 148 seats (up 52). Two other conservative parties won 38 and 28 seats, so the LDP, Komeito and one of these parties will be enough for the LDP to reach a majority and stay in power.  The LDP won the FPTP seats by 132-104 over the CDP on vote shares of 38.5-29.0.

Moldova and Georgia

A referendum on joining the European Union was held in Moldova on October 20. The Yes case prevailed by just a 50.35-49.65 margin after No had led until near the end of the count. This referendum was only a first step towards Moldova joining the EU.

Georgia (the country) used national PR with a 5% threshold to elect its 150 seats. At Saturday’s election, the pro-Russia and autocratic Georgian Dream retained government for a fourth successive term, winning 89 of the 150 seats on 53.9% of the vote (up 5.7% since 2020). No other party won more than 11%. This election was marred by reports of ballot rigging and voter intimidation.

299 comments on “US presidential election minus seven days”

Comments Page 6 of 6
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  1. Bellwether says:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 11:14 am

    You’re the one who brought up Argentina.

    The US Government has been massively undisciplined in their spending. I’m sure there is plenty of fat to cut.

  4. What ParkySP alluded to is a stunt gone so badly wrong; it could be the nail in Trump’s coffin.

    So let’s rewind to the top notch Trump team:

    “This garbage thing is getting traction.

    We have said the US is a garbage can for the worlds depraved illegal migrants. Tick.
    Our comedian got the Puerto Rico is a garbage island breaking through the media cycle. Tick.
    Old Duffer Biden said our supporters are garbage. Tick.

    How can squeeze a bit more out of this lemon?

    LETS DRESS UP TRUMP AS A GARBAGE MAN AND PUT HIM IN A GARBAGE TRUCK!

    Brilliant, let’s do it. What could possibly go wrong? “

  6. You mean, ads incoming that show Trump driving a garbage truck overlaid with relevant “garbage can” and PR comments?

    Possibly with some snappy tagline like “Donald Trump is running for trash collector, Kamala Harris is running for president. Vote Kamala.” (or something better than that; Kamala’s team should be able to do better) at the end?

  8. Ok, I have concluded my betting market searches with the betting agencies around the globe that matter.

    I have been reliably informed that the majority of bookmakers have found pricing levels that are attracting equal weighting of bets for both candidates.

    The betting market percentage chances as they stand today as at 1.00 pm Australian time are as follows:

    Trump 63%
    Harris 37%

    We are at a crucial part of the voting process, the next movement must be towards Harris if she is to win!

    Like I said in the last thread, for Kamala supporters: PREPARE FOR THE WORST and hope for the best.

  9. The betting agencies firmed Trump’s chances into a 66% win probability after Biden called the MAGA supporters, rubbish.

    I can assure you, like I said that the polls will follow the betting markets, if Trump firms into 67% from here – he wins the election!

  10. FUBAR
    I only bring up Argentina because Musk has a love affair with Milei. And though there’s generally a bit of room to trim the fat I’m a fan of responsible government spending and don’t get my knickers in a knot over sovereign debt in the way some do.

  11. Just to provide an indication into the betting volumes being wagered around the globe, Betfair (they publicly disclose betting volumes), a minor player in Australia alone, are approaching $230 million in matched bets.

  12. Centrebet
    Pretty sure the polls are heading in the opposite direction now. Trump down from 56 to 51 over the last 4 days by the 538 forecast model and as Nate Silver just posted a bunch of good quality polls came in on Wednesday which he says favour Harris by a hair. You’d be sensible to treat the betting odds as an outlier at present but I expect they may be up to speed by Monday.

  13. The betting odds didn’t actually move. Kamala’s speech didn’t change them. Neither did Biden’s gaffe. Trump and Harris are in the same place right now as they were yesterday morning before either thing happened. On Sportsbet, anyways.

  14. FUBARsays:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 12:53 pm
    Bellwether says:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 11:14 am

    You’re the one who brought up Argentina.

    The US Government has been massively undisciplined in their spending. I’m sure there is plenty of fat to cut.
    ———————————
    The problem isn’t undisciplined spending but it’s decentralized right down to county and local council level.

  16. Bedwetter

    As I said, we are at a crucial part of the voting process. The next movement MUST be towards Harris. If Trump firms into 67% – he wins!

    The only outlier, if there is an outlier at this point, are the polls. Don’t you ever learn!

  17. a r

    Wrong, the betting fluctuations were and are as I reported.

    Edit: you did make reference to Sportsbet, not the global market 😉

  18. “I can assure you, like I said that the polls will follow the betting markets, if Trump firms into 67% from here – he wins the election!”

    67% is no certainty, $1.40-1.50 shots lose all the time

    Of course you’d much rather be trump if this market reflects the true probability of winning

  19. Lone Star
    Also, the gender gap is a potential killer for Team Orange – again very personal for women voters vis a vis abortion.
    —————————–
    Yeah but the same could be said of Harris if men don’t support her.

    Here in Australia women seem to drive political swings and the liberals never win without first winning the women vote but does the same apply to America. Abortion rights has been on the ballot since Roe vs Wade was handed down but that didn’t stop the republicans winning.

  22. Centrebet
    And I’m telling you there is a movement towards Harris. Maybe it will eventually show through in the betting markets, maybe not.

  23. allin127

    You are correct.

    Polls have been wrong before, likewise betting markets. It is my opinion that if Trump firms to 67%, the markets will not get this wrong 😉

  24. Thanks for the link Victoria.

    It appears Trump has two paths to victory.

    N Carolina, Georgia, Arizona plus any 1 of Pen, Wisconsin or Michigan.

    Or NC, Ga, Az, Nevada and Maine 2 gets him to 269 and the house would then elect him to break the tie.

    If Trump gives up PA, expect him to hit Nevada and Maine hard.

  25. evads

    I can assure you there is no market manipulation with Polymarket or anywhere else in this election.

    Bellwether, if you say there is movement towards Harris – yes, we shall see if it filters through where people and betting agencies are betting with money…

  29. Victoria,

    My personal betting position in this election is neutral. I will finish with a slight profit regardless of the result.

    As we get closer to the election, I hope I get this wrong in tipping Trump, I would love to see the voters stick it up Trump and Elon Musk and their MAGA supporters – yes even more so than me sticking it up some of you blokes 😀

  32. Victoria,

    I have bet on Kamala to win at $2.40

    I bet again on Kamala at 2.12

    And I bet more heavily on Trump at $2.00

    The odds bet has enabled me to show a profit regardless of who wins.

    Edit: Victoria I can’t even say gobbledygook 😀 😀

  33. Trump threatens to ‘protect’ women ‘whether the women like it or not'(watch video Trump saying that)

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/30/2281173/-Trump-threatens-to-protect-women-whether-the-women-like-it-or-not?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web

    Trump at a rally:
    “My people told me about four weeks ago, I would say, “No, I want to protect the people, I want to protect the women of our country. I want to protect the women.”
    “Sir, please don’t say that.”

    “Why?”

    They said, “We think it’s—we think it’s very inappropriate for you to say.”

    I say, “Why? I’m president. I want to protect the women of our country.”

    They said, “Sir, I just think it’s inappropriate for you to say.” I pay these guys a lot of money, can you believe it?

    I said, “Well, I’m going to do it whether the women like it or not. I’m going to protect them.”

  34. Centre,

    Your posting and style says you are a Trumper. You can try and dress it up anyway you like but unlike most Trumpers we ain’t stupid.

    Thanks and perhaps I’ve wasted $50 (5 x $10-) bets but I’ve got Harris winning.

    We shall see Tuesday (US time).

  36. Trump threatens to ‘protect’ women ‘whether the women like it or not’

    It could play with the trad wives. Who knows?

    Of course, being an adjudicated rapist and saying that sort of thing is a particularly bad look.

  37. If the betting markets have a Trump win at 67% probability, all it tells me is that mug punter’s money is proportionally backing Trump more than Harris.

    Mug punters are not necessarily expert psephologists.

  39. Victoria,

    Nah, when I bet, I bet to win, and I don’t bet with monopoly money 😉

    Well, Kirky, If I decide to go again (bet Trump) I’ll be a Trumper no worries…

  42. Or NC, Ga, Az, Nevada and Maine 2 gets him to 269 and the house would then elect him to break the tie.

    Doesn’t that scenario also require Trump getting NE-2? Not happening, if so.

    Trump needs one of the “blue wall” states. Everything seems to be on PA. The betting odds should reflect the polling situation in PA.

  43. @A R

    PA is early voting stronger for the Democrats than New York is, the PA polling is entirely fabricated, Trump is cancelling appearances in PA, and betting odds are being overwhelmed by idiots like Elon Musk. There is not a single bit of evidence that says Trump has a chance in PA.

    Trump’s easiest path to victory is NC, Ga, Az, Nevada, and NE 2 (my previous post said Maine 2 by mistake).

  45. The dems will win, but the rethugs are going to challenge the outcome, and do everything not to certify the results.
    It will be a shit show until January.

  46. ”
    Voice Endeavoursays:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 2:43 pm
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/state-poll-results-show-ties-are-tied-voters-pollsters-rcna177703

    Some huge herding going on, particularly in PA.

    Article doesn’t help us forecast the winner, but does put to bed the “polls are useful” argument.
    ”

    VE

    Gender gap in USA in 2020 after total vote is counted: W=52 M= 48
    Pew research data and analysis:
    In the 2020 election, men again divided nearly evenly (50% Trump, 48% Biden), while Biden’s advantage narrowed to 11 points among women (55% to 44%).

    Early voting in PA by gender
    (This is the actual votes casted till now, not polling or modelling)
    Total early votes casted as of 30th October
    : 1.55 million
    Women: 56 %
    Men: 43%
    i.e.+13 women

  47. Ven

    Gender gap in USA in 2020 after total vote is counted:
    Early voting in PA by gender
    (This is the actual votes casted till now, not polling or modelling)
    Total early votes casted as of 30th October
    : 1.55 million
    Women: 56 %
    Men: 43%
    i.e.+13 women
    —————-
    That doesn’t tell us anything and if it’s like Australian elections the prepoll favors the conservatives.

  48. Oh and Asha – if the poll skeptics get you that wound up – wait until you meet the guys who say the whole election was faked!

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