Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
The US presidential election is next Tuesday, with results on Wednesday AEDT. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Kamala Harris has a 48.5-47.6 lead over Donald Trump (48.6-47.4 in my US election article for The Conversation on Monday). Harris’ national lead peaked on October 2, when she led by 49.4–45.9.
In presidential elections, the Electoral College is decisive, not the national popular vote. Trump leads by 0.5 points in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), after Harris had led there until last week. With slightly larger leads in North Carolina (16), Georgia (16) and Arizona (11), Trump leads in the Electoral College by 281-251 with Nevada’s six tied. If Harris wins Pennsylvania, she most likely wins the Electoral College, although she only leads by 0.3 points in Wisconsin (ten). Silver’s model gives Trump a 55% chance to win, while FiveThirtyEight gives him a 53% chance.
I will have an article for The Conversation tomorrow that also looks at the congressional races. On Monday, my final pre-election article for The Conversation will give poll closing times for next Wednesday. I will do a live blog here that day.
Update Thursday 12:38pm Today’s US election article for The Conversation says Trump’s edge in Pennsylvania could give him the Electoral College win, and also that Biden is a drag on Harris. Congressional elections appear to be trending to the Republicans.
Canadian provincial elections
From October 19 to Monday, there have been elections in the Canadian provinces of British Columbia (BC), New Brunswick (NB) and Saskatchewan. All these elections were held using first past the post.
At the October 19 BC election, the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) won 47 of the 93 seats (down ten since 2020), the Conservatives 44 and the Greens two (steady). The NDP retained government for a third successive term. Vote shares were 44.8% NDP (down 2.9%), 43.3% Conservatives (up 41.4%) and 8.2% Greens (down 6.8%).
The main BC conservative party used to be the BC Liberals, who are not part of the centre-left federal Liberals. But the BC Liberals were supplanted by the Conservatives during the last term, and didn’t contest any seats under their new BC United name.
At the October 21 NB election, the centre-left Liberals defeated a Conservative government, winning 31 of the 49 seats (up 14 since 2020), the Conservatives 16 (down 11) and the Greens two (down one). Vote shares were 48.2% Liberals (up 13.9%), 35.0% Conservatives (down 4.3%) and 13.8% Greens (down 1.5%).
At Monday’s Saskatchewan election, the conservative Saskatchewan Party (SP) won a fifth successive term with 35 of the 61 seats (down 13 since 2020) to 26 for the NDP (up 13). Vote shares were 52.9% SP (down 8.2%) and 39.4% NDP (up 7.6%). Postal votes are still to be counted, but the SP has definitely won 32 seats. Late polls that gave the NDP a narrow lead were wrong.
Update Thursday 12:38pm With most postals counted, the SP wins by 34 seats to 27 for the NDP from vote shares of 52.4-40.1.
LDP-led coalition loses majority in Japan
Of the 465 lower house Japanese seats, 289 are elected by FPTP and the remaining 176 using proportional representation in multi-member electorates. The conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) with its Komeito allies have governed almost continuously since 1955, with the last interruption after the 2009 election.
At Sunday’s election, the LDP won 191 seats (down 69 since 2021) and Komeito 24 (down eight). For the first time since 2009, the LDP and Komeito were short of the 233 seats needed for a majority. The centre-left Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) won 148 seats (up 52). Two other conservative parties won 38 and 28 seats, so the LDP, Komeito and one of these parties will be enough for the LDP to reach a majority and stay in power. The LDP won the FPTP seats by 132-104 over the CDP on vote shares of 38.5-29.0.
Moldova and Georgia
A referendum on joining the European Union was held in Moldova on October 20. The Yes case prevailed by just a 50.35-49.65 margin after No had led until near the end of the count. This referendum was only a first step towards Moldova joining the EU.
Georgia (the country) used national PR with a 5% threshold to elect its 150 seats. At Saturday’s election, the pro-Russia and autocratic Georgian Dream retained government for a fourth successive term, winning 89 of the 150 seats on 53.9% of the vote (up 5.7% since 2020). No other party won more than 11%. This election was marred by reports of ballot rigging and voter intimidation.
I am going to stick by my polls are useful position. It’s a tied race, the polls cant help us know who will win, they just tell us it’s a tied race. That’s useful information. Campaigns can use that to shape their strategy.
There are two threads running through PB at the moment, Trump will win because o N+X reasons, Harris will win because of X+N reasons.
But it’s a tied race (I resisted the urge to put that in caps with full stops between each letter).
Mostly Interestedsays:
Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 3:16 pm
I am going to stick by my polls are useful position. It’s a tied race, the polls cant help us know who will win, they just tell us it’s a tied race. That’s useful information. Campaigns can use that to shape their strategy.
—————–
Normally a week out you can get some idea but this election is looking too close to call but my gut feel is on the night it might not be close.
This is what Sprocket was discussing @1:13 pm (I only say. Watch the video in the article)
(Trump made) 3 attempts to grasp the door handle of garbage truck, barely has the strength to open the door, almost falls over.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/30/2280836/-3-attempts-to-grasp-the-door-handle-barely-has-the-strength-to-open-the-door-almost-falls-over?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
I guess because Centre and ScromoII have both declared Trump has already won, we might as well forget the election, and Centre can stop boring us with comment after comment about the betting market/gambling/Polymarket etc.
This thread has been ruined for the majority, because of the actions of those two individuals I mentioned above especially, and anyone else who lets Centre set the agenda in here.
”
Mexicanbeemersays:
Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 3:14 pm
Ven
In 2020
Biden: 44; Women: 55
Trump: 55; Women: 44
————–
Great if they were turning out for Harris but we don’t know how they are voting.
”
As per latest Ipsos poll (dated October 27th)
Women are breaking 55-42 in favour of Harris and Men are breaking 45-51 against Harris nationally.
Voice Endeavour @ #292 Thursday, October 31st, 2024 – 1:54 pm
It is, but off stupidly low turnout numbers relative to most other states. PA is currently around 20-25%, while the national average is probably 35-40%. Everything that’s happened in PA early voting can be wiped away on the day. That’s true everywhere else as well, but especially true in PA.
You’re calling it for Harris then? I see no evidence suggesting Trump can get NE-2.
Democratic Underground,
You can read. I declare what I say in my posts. I don’t need to repeat myself.
If you want to rely strictly on polls, bypass the true winning chances of the candidates, and live in a delusion until election day…just scroll my posts lol
Ven
As per latest Ipsos poll
Women are breaking 55-452 in favour of Harris and Men are breaking 45-53 against Harris nationally.
————————-
That poll has Harris doing better than Biden with the over 65s and men and black voters and white voters.
@ a r
Fair point that the to date turnout is low in PA.
All the reasons I’ve outlined above show that Democrats should be feeling happy about the blue wall. With only 20% cast, things could change.
NE2 feels easier for Trump to pick up than any of the blue wall – he could blanket it with advertising and pork barrel it for a trivial sum. With how little polling it sees, it’d be easier to do without us noticing.
Not calling it yet, but feeling more relaxed than most on here.
Being a reformed gambler myself, no surer way to lose than consistently back the favourite.
The other point worth repeating is that gambling on elections is illegal in the USA. So the punters who matter – US voters – have little skin in the game.
There is some recently approved exotic predictor type markets, but nothing like Betfair or Sportsbet with US election betting markets. So if anything, Centre should be arguing the World wants Trump to win, as evidenced by the bookies odds.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/30/business/us-election-betting-2024/index.html
As far as I can tell, only one such predictor market exists – and it has a fraction of the $billions which Centre salivates over.
More than $100 million in election bets have been traded on Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market that was given the green light to offer election betting after a federal appeals court in Washington, DC, this month upheld a lower court’s order that made way for legal political gambling. Other platforms in the US have begun to offer election-related bets in the wake of the ruling.
I’m sure something that most will agree with is that if Trump is beaten he will not concede defeat.
I don’t think this will pose a serious problem as Biden is still the president.
Is it possible that like the quiet Australians who voted for Morrison in 2019, the quiet Americans might be voting for Kamala?
Centresays:
Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 3:49 pm
I’m sure something that most will agree with is that if Trump is beaten he will not concede defeat.
I don’t think this will pose a serious problem as Biden is still the president.
Is it possible that like the quiet Australians who voted for Morrison in 2019, the quiet Americans might be voting for Kamala?
——————————
Anthony Scaramucci predicted that latino men might do just that because they want to be seen as macho so talk up how tough Trump is but come election go but we don’t want family members deported so vote Harris.
That poll has Harris 14 points up on Biden with black men but the narrative is black men going to Trump so if that 14% swing happens can’t see Trump winning and if the over 65s are leaning to Harris more than Biden Victoria might be right about Florida.
So Kalshi does not have odds like we understand them – even money, $2.00 and so on. So it doesn’t translate from the normal sports or horse betting punters are used to.
This is not betting, rather a derivative market with a different model – not that easy to understand for MAGA Mike Barstool in bumfck Michigan…
This gives you an idea..
What are prediction markets?
Kalshi is the first regulated exchange where you can buy and sell contracts on the outcome of events. Contract prices reflect the view of traders as to the chances of the event happening. Each contract is worth $1 if you’re right.
The NYSE and Kalshi both deal in markets, but with a key difference: what’s being traded. The NYSE is a traditional stock exchange where you buy and sell shares of ownership in companies. Kalshi, on the other hand, is a prediction market. Here, you trade contracts based on whether specific events will happen, like “Will interest rates rise in the next quarter?” Think of it like predicting the future, with the price of the contracts reflecting the collective prediction of the market participants. This allows Kalshi to tap into a wider range of possibilities than just company performance.
Expansive Trading Opportunities on Kalshi
Kalshi stands out as a pioneering platform that goes beyond traditional financial markets, offering its traders the ability to engage with a broad and diverse range of trading topics. This includes everything from the fluctuating spheres of entertainment and culture to the more predictable metrics of company performance, not to mention the uncertain outcomes of legal and political arenas. Here’s a closer look at the variety of options available:
Elections, Legal and Political Outcomes
Elections, Legal battles and political decisions can have far-reaching impacts on society and the economy. Kalshi gives users the ability to engage with these outcomes through a trading lens, including:
Elections: Elections, can significantly impact markets as they influence policy decisions, regulatory changes, and investor confidence.
High-Profile Court Cases: Such as the implications of the Biden administration’s actions on free speech or the potential forced divestiture of companies like TikTok
Legislative and Regulatory Changes: Predictions on new laws, regulations, and their implications for industries and the broader society
Sprocket
I don’t salivate, I independently report real facts.
People who bet want the candidate who they have backed to win. Political party preferences mean naught to them…
This election has attracted a world record of betting turnover volumes.
Stick to thinking that the betting markets are rigged and they’re full of gender bias.
Centre – Can US citizens bet on their elections?
sprocket
Sheezus, just google it and stop wasting my time lol
The betting odds are rigged, no doubt. I don’t see any possible way there’s a 66% chance for Trump to win, it’s just not backed up by any data or modelling whatsoever. The polling I’m hesitant to suggest is rigged. I’m sure of all countries, Rupert would put his thumb down on the scale for America, but I guess I just don’t know enough about American polling to really say.
Centrebet
Help me out. I read that twice as many men gamble online compared to women. I suspect that might more or less carry through to election betting. You’re a smart guy, you can see where this is leading without me commenting further.
The opinion polls are indeed all tied up. But as far as I’m aware, the opinion polling has been found to be pretty consistently tracking slightly left of election day in recent years. I know pollsters have been working hard to correct it, but I’d be pretty confident a miss to the left is still much more likely than a miss to the right.
I’m holding a couple of clicks of windage to the right. I may privately wish someone else had done so earlier in the year.
Ok Bellwether, I will respond.
I do not dispute that there may be twice as many males that bet than females.
As far as betting on an outcome is concerned, gender has no bias. Males, as some here on this site, may back Kamala, and females may back Trump, and vice versa.
You see if there was a bias in betting activities, smart operators would take advantage of the more generous odds offered for the other candidate – creating the balance of real opinionated probabilities.
@The wombat
2022 the polls were pretty much spot on for House + Senate
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/
My understanding is that Democrats have overperformed polling in special elections since Roe v Wade was overturned. That’s just general recollection, no specific source
Indeed they were very good. Much better than recent Presidential campaigns. But they were still nearly a whole percentage point to the left. If that error is still present, and without any expertise in the area and only experience to go on I figure it probably still is present, then Trump easily wins the electoral college.
Leagle Eagle addresses the legal implications of a Trump win:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bTpbDL5dcg
This is what happened in 2022
https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-national-polls-1977153
The betting odds are rigged, no doubt. I don’t see any possible way there’s a 66% chance for Trump to win, it’s just not backed up by any data or modelling whatsoever.
If anything the data suggests that Trump’s chances are higher than 66%. Latest polling averages have Trump winning in Pennsylvania and North Carolina which means Harris is doomed even if she gets Nevada and Wisconsin, where polls are tied.
The only reason people can’t believe Trump is the favorite is because they’re looking at the national polling, but the popular vote won’t win the election.
The Wombat @ #322 Thursday, October 31st, 2024 – 3:35 pm
One possible problem with this thinking is that for the polls in 2016 and 2020 to underrate Trump by as much as they did, they would have had to have him on 45% or less nationally. 2024 polling has him around 47-48% nationally. If the polls are wrong by the same margin again, then Trump is winning with a popular vote majority. Comparative rally sizes suggests otherwise.
TLDR; Trump doesn’t seem to have the headroom for a 2016/2020 sized polling error in his favor.
As I have already said, my personal betting position on this election is neutral.
Now some may not believe me but I would prefer to see Trump, Elon Musk and the MAGA supporters defeated rather than being correct here by tipping Trump as the winner.
By the way, William might be smart for asking for donations before the election 😀
I’ll send you fifty William
*have fun
Your recollection is correct. Remember the 2022 red wave that never eventuated?
It’s partly because the Republicans keep nominating weird and wacky MAGA candidates who appeal to MAGA but not to normies, and also because Trump hasn’t been on a ballot since Roe was overturned.
This is the first time and we’ll see whether we get repeats of 2018 and 2022.
He doesn’t need a 2016 type error to win. Even if a 2022 sized error is present, which would be optimistic, on current polling he wins the electoral college. You shift the polls 0.8% to the right, that’s probably an easy win of the electoral college. Especially if I apply that to the swing state polling.
Northeastern University assistant professor of mathematics Matan Harel:
“As mathematicians we tend to ask relatively simple questions, because even the simple questions are hard,” says Harel, whose work focuses on probability. “In this case there are so many factors. Humans are really complicated. Elections are incredibly complicated.
“This is why I am deeply skeptical,” Harel says of Trump’s betting advantage. “I am deeply, deeply skeptical that there is a 60-40 split. This is a coin toss.”
Out of curiosity, does anyone know when the opinion polls last missed to the right in US politics, particularly in Presidential campaigns?
The orange! I don’t know if it’s the hi viz emphasising the face make up or the make up overstating the hi viz.
Nah, he’s definitely been more orange the last few days. He’s obviously had a touch up or whatever you call it.
Centre: “I don’t need to repeat myself.”
But you do, Oscar, you do!
Trump doing the Canavan trick of wearing makeup to look like his been working.
Centre: “Is it possible that like the quiet Australians who voted for Morrison in 2019 …”
Ah, that mythical creature, the ‘shy Tory’!
“In particular, shy Tory effect has been frequently cited as an explanation for the 2019 Australian polling failure, in which polls collectively underestimated the centre-right Liberal-National Coalition’s vote …”
“However, the above is not credible evidence for a polling skew towards Labor.”
https://armariuminterreta.com/2021/06/25/shy-tory-effect-in-aus-polling/
The Wombat @ #333 Thursday, October 31st, 2024 – 5:05 pm
Bit of a heavy hand for a ‘touch up’. 😆
Yikes.
Confessions
“It’s partly because the Republicans keep nominating weird and wacky MAGA candidates who appeal to MAGA but not to normies, and also because Trump hasn’t been on a ballot since Roe was overturned.”
Yes, though as I understand another part of it was uniquely high youth voter turnout, and there were signs that Biden’s youth vote was subsequently collapsing over the past year. Harris as a change candidate was bringing them back, but I’m nervous the perception of her being a change candidate has weakened post-convention
The Wombat
We’re due – Since 1980 polling errors have followed a DDR pattern
”
Victoriasays:
Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 4:42 pm
This is what happened in 2022
https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-national-polls-1977153
”
Victoria
It is what it is. I keep presenting data and cross reference with polls with cross tabs, but still nobody budges from the opinion.
If there is anything closer to the statistical polling error mentioned in the cross tabs of a Poll, it is gender classification.
If you try to calculate any other category, even State, the statistical polling error will be much higher than noted in the poll.
Trump has a hi-viz head, he doesn’t need the jacket.
The Wombat
In 2012, the polls had Romney beating Obama up until late October.
Centre says:
Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 4:03 pm
sprocket
Sheezus, just google it and stop wasting my time lol
I’m starting to think you’re a troll Centre – flooding the blog with non-US betting markets and extrapolating that this absolutely must effect voting intention and hence the result.
But I’ll avoid commenting on this horseshit until you actually provide some evidence to support your assertions.
Bellwether lol
Trump is a poisonous oompa looma
High-viz appears to be a standard fashion accessory for right-wing politicians on the campaign trail, often accompanied by a hard hat, whether or not they also wear orange makeup. Tony Abbott always seemed to be wearing one when he was out and about.
Bonza:
Trump is very good at turning out his voters who tend to be white, uneducated men and women. This time he’s relying on a voting cohort who don’t typically vote (young men of colour). It remains to be seen how this effort goes.
But spending 4 days (with 6 to go) having to explain away and justify your race hate rally that castigated minorities in cruel and crude ways would set that effort on the back foot, I’d imagine. Harris only has to shift something like 2-3% of Puerto Rican voters in PA to position her in a good place to win the state.
Let’s see what happens in the coming days, the way these cultural phenomena tend to cycle through socials with voters of colour sharing grabs of Hinchcliffe and the hate fest with their friends and family.
@Confessions
According to early voting data provided by Georgia Secretary of State:
Latino share of the vote in GA was 2.5% over the first 2 weeks.
Monday: 3.3%
Tuesday: 3.6%
Wednesday: 4.0%
Fascinating. 8% of the population of Pennsylvania is Puerto Rican. Whodda thunk? Even weirder, I just start putting “how many….” into Google and it autopredicts Puerto Ricans in Pennsylvania.
The Wombat @ #349 Thursday, October 31st, 2024 – 5:58 pm
450,000! And what a week to piss them off.
Apparently the night of Trump’s hate rally a Dem Latino strategist called for $30K in donations which would allow his PAC to text video of Hinchcliffe’s speech to every registered Puerto Rican voter in PA. He raised it and more within hours, allowing him to flood people’s mobile phones the next morning.