Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
The US presidential election is next Tuesday, with results on Wednesday AEDT. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Kamala Harris has a 48.5-47.6 lead over Donald Trump (48.6-47.4 in my US election article for The Conversation on Monday). Harris’ national lead peaked on October 2, when she led by 49.4–45.9.
In presidential elections, the Electoral College is decisive, not the national popular vote. Trump leads by 0.5 points in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), after Harris had led there until last week. With slightly larger leads in North Carolina (16), Georgia (16) and Arizona (11), Trump leads in the Electoral College by 281-251 with Nevada’s six tied. If Harris wins Pennsylvania, she most likely wins the Electoral College, although she only leads by 0.3 points in Wisconsin (ten). Silver’s model gives Trump a 55% chance to win, while FiveThirtyEight gives him a 53% chance.
I will have an article for The Conversation tomorrow that also looks at the congressional races. On Monday, my final pre-election article for The Conversation will give poll closing times for next Wednesday. I will do a live blog here that day.
Update Thursday 12:38pm Today’s US election article for The Conversation says Trump’s edge in Pennsylvania could give him the Electoral College win, and also that Biden is a drag on Harris. Congressional elections appear to be trending to the Republicans.
Canadian provincial elections
From October 19 to Monday, there have been elections in the Canadian provinces of British Columbia (BC), New Brunswick (NB) and Saskatchewan. All these elections were held using first past the post.
At the October 19 BC election, the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) won 47 of the 93 seats (down ten since 2020), the Conservatives 44 and the Greens two (steady). The NDP retained government for a third successive term. Vote shares were 44.8% NDP (down 2.9%), 43.3% Conservatives (up 41.4%) and 8.2% Greens (down 6.8%).
The main BC conservative party used to be the BC Liberals, who are not part of the centre-left federal Liberals. But the BC Liberals were supplanted by the Conservatives during the last term, and didn’t contest any seats under their new BC United name.
At the October 21 NB election, the centre-left Liberals defeated a Conservative government, winning 31 of the 49 seats (up 14 since 2020), the Conservatives 16 (down 11) and the Greens two (down one). Vote shares were 48.2% Liberals (up 13.9%), 35.0% Conservatives (down 4.3%) and 13.8% Greens (down 1.5%).
At Monday’s Saskatchewan election, the conservative Saskatchewan Party (SP) won a fifth successive term with 35 of the 61 seats (down 13 since 2020) to 26 for the NDP (up 13). Vote shares were 52.9% SP (down 8.2%) and 39.4% NDP (up 7.6%). Postal votes are still to be counted, but the SP has definitely won 32 seats. Late polls that gave the NDP a narrow lead were wrong.
Update Thursday 12:38pm With most postals counted, the SP wins by 34 seats to 27 for the NDP from vote shares of 52.4-40.1.
LDP-led coalition loses majority in Japan
Of the 465 lower house Japanese seats, 289 are elected by FPTP and the remaining 176 using proportional representation in multi-member electorates. The conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) with its Komeito allies have governed almost continuously since 1955, with the last interruption after the 2009 election.
At Sunday’s election, the LDP won 191 seats (down 69 since 2021) and Komeito 24 (down eight). For the first time since 2009, the LDP and Komeito were short of the 233 seats needed for a majority. The centre-left Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) won 148 seats (up 52). Two other conservative parties won 38 and 28 seats, so the LDP, Komeito and one of these parties will be enough for the LDP to reach a majority and stay in power. The LDP won the FPTP seats by 132-104 over the CDP on vote shares of 38.5-29.0.
Moldova and Georgia
A referendum on joining the European Union was held in Moldova on October 20. The Yes case prevailed by just a 50.35-49.65 margin after No had led until near the end of the count. This referendum was only a first step towards Moldova joining the EU.
Georgia (the country) used national PR with a 5% threshold to elect its 150 seats. At Saturday’s election, the pro-Russia and autocratic Georgian Dream retained government for a fourth successive term, winning 89 of the 150 seats on 53.9% of the vote (up 5.7% since 2020). No other party won more than 11%. This election was marred by reports of ballot rigging and voter intimidation.
Henry says:
Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 8:36 pm
You may not care about female elite athletes, but plenty do. Imagine being a young girl who misses out on an Athletics scholarship to a prestigious University because you were beaten by a male. Imagine being a soccer player who suffers a major knee injury due to a tackle by a male player and miss out on opportunities. And that’s without addressing the issues of fairness or chamgerooms.
Prices for basic essentials have never been higher either. Those are more relevant to most people.
It is pointless to worry about polls, betting markets or any other predictions at this stage of the USA election. What will be will be.
And it is useless to try to save the wilfully ignorant from themselves.
If the USA votes in the Trump fascist , dishonourable, vile, lying, conman and convicted felon, and rapist to be their President, they will have to suffer the consequences.
So will other nations but we will all have to adapt to a world where the USA becomes a backward degenerate fascist state.
We may even need to take in asylum seekers from the USA.
It will be an interesting Tuesday.
C@t @ 8.51 pm
I don’t read anything on the back of bubble gum cards or take much notice of betting company promos.
I only respond to comments that are worth a reply…
Imagine being a young girl who misses out on an Athletics scholarship to a prestigious University because you were beaten by a male. Imagine being a soccer player who suffers a major knee injury due to a tackle by a male player and miss out on opportunities.
FUBAR frankly you lack imagination. As a red blooded conservative male with school aged daughters I live in fear of my own girls being legally forced to play rugby league against a male to female transgender PNG/QLD combined team. In fact I have terrible nightmares about it late at night when the ventilator mask that I am forced to wear due to my hyperobesity slips down onto my dewlap.
Democracy Sausage says:
Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 7:22 pm
Anyone else noticed how the reporting on ABC News is blatantly pro Trump, most of all from Trump fangirl Barbara Miller. News 24 rarely puts on any Kamala Harris speeches or rallies, while Trump is shown endlessly.
I get more balanced news from SBS, or from Morning Joe which you can get live on youtube.
Yes, noticed that as well.
Also noted they seem to more often than not lead with a Federal Opposition story/position as well.
Kirky,
I watched Planet America last night and it was as unbiased as any program could be – good show.
Centre,
It has always been that way.
The vote share recorded by women in early voting, and the polled propensity of women to vote for Harris mean Harris should win in the aggregate around 53% of the votes in the swing States. Women comprise a majority of the eligible population. Women’s vote share will be higher than usual and their support for Harris will be substantially higher than the vote share directed to Trump. Even if other minority cohorts do not markedly shift for Harris (this will not be the case wrt the Puerto Rican diaspora) Harris will win comfortably. There is no way Trump can make up his loss rating among female voters.
The Republican columns are split. An electorally significant share of usually-Republican constituencies and/or the non-voting “Reserve” constituency will vote Harris. She’s almost a certainty now. Trump should be more than 5/1 in the betting markets…even 20/1.
President
It is impossible to know who will win. All the polls when I last looked were in the margin of error.
Re house
The Republicans have control but they have stuffed up big time. How could they win?
Re Senate
Democrats best situation is 50 seats and vp casting vote
Chances (3)
Montana
Texas
Ind in Nebraska
Any choice assumes they retain their 49 seats besides which is very possible
But stage 2 of the 3 choices is less likely and difficult.
It is Possible that they win 2 out of 3 choices
51…….very improbable.
Kirky @ #408 Thursday, October 31st, 2024 – 9:11 pm
Same as it ever was. Almost every ABC bulletin from 2010-13 was led with Greg Jennett or some other LNP lickspittle declaring with a big grin on their face “Federal Opposition Leader Tony Abbott says…”
BOMBS AWAY
University of Massachusetts Lowell / YouGov
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Harris: 50% (+7)
Trump: 43%
Other: 3%
MICHIGAN
Harris: 49% (+4)
Trump: 45%
Other: 3%
PENNSYLVANIA
Harris: 48% (+1)
Trump: 47%
Other: 3%
NORTH CAROLINA
Trump: 47% (+2)
Harris: 45%
Other: 3%
10/16-24 | Likely voters
__________
Top Minds of MAGA squirming!
This would require the polling to be wrong. Trump is leading in the markets because he’s leading in the polling, Pennsylvania is the main culprit.
It’s true that the woman factor makes this election different from the last couple, so the polls might actually be wrong and she might actually win, but very far from a “certainty”.
Kirsdarke @ #414 Thursday, October 31st, 2024 – 9:25 pm
And then one of them went to work for Abbott. Mark ??
A poll that does what you’d expect in terms of RV/LV based on early vote:
President – Washington Post
MICHIGAN
LV
Harris: 47%
Trump: 46%
RV
Trump: 47%
Harris: 45%
10/23-28 1,003 RV
”
Centresays:
Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 8:49 pm
Ven
I don’t care who you think I support.
I stick by every post I’ve made.
Tell you what, if I have another go (bet) on Donald in the betting markets, you’ll know who I’m going for
”
It is free country and do your heart’s content. It is your money. 🙂
Good to see you’ve come around to hoping for a Democrat win, Centre. Fingers crossed we can raise a glass next week to celebrate if they get over the line.
FUBAR, this probably illustrates our quite different views on gender and trans people, but neither of those hypotheticals seems that problematic to me.
In any university scholarship scenario there’s someone (many people) who just misses out. And the same number who get the life changing opportunity. If one of them is trans and wins on merit good luck to them. And a knee injury from a bad tackle can happen from any opponent.
I suspect these hypotheticals only strike a chord if you’ve already internalized some negative/fearful perception of a trans athlete. They’re just people, winning and losing scholarships and laying good and bad tackles.