Federal polls: Newspoll and Resolve Strategic (open thread)

Two new polls find improvement in Peter Dutton’s personal ratings, but only minor changes on voting intention.

Two new polls out this evening, one being the first Newspoll result from The Australian in four weeks, showing the Coalition with an unchanged two-party lead of 51-49. Both major parties are up two on the primary vote, Labor to 33% and the Coalition to 40%, with the Greens down one to 11% and One Nation down two to 5%. Anthony Albanese is steady on 40% approval and up one on disapproval to 55%, while Peter Dutton is up two on approval to 40% and down one on disapproval to 51%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 45-37 to 45-41. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1261.

Nine Newspapers has the monthly Resolve Strategic poll has Labor unchanged on 30%, the Coalition up one to 39%, the Greens down one to 11%, One Nation steady on 5%, independent down one to 11% and others up one to 4%. I reckon this to put two-party preferred somewhere between 50-50 and 51-49 to the Coalition, based on preference flows at the 2022 election. Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 37% and down one on disapproval to 51%, while Peter Dutton is up four to 45% and down one to 40%. The two leaders are tied 37-37 on preferred prime minister, after Albanese led 38-35 last time.

The poll also finds 26% rating Donald Trump positively and 55% negatively, compared with 41% and 25% for Kamala Harris, with 40% considering Trump’s election will be bad for Australia compared with 29% for good. A series of findings on foreign policy questions, one being that 27% agreement that Australia should pause or withdraw from the AUKUS nuclear submarines arrangement with 35% disagreeing. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1621.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,314 comments on “Federal polls: Newspoll and Resolve Strategic (open thread)”

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  1. Used to like the Nielsen polling because they provided state break downs. My guess is the Coalition improvement is coming from NSW and Victoria but whether this converts into seats gained I have no idea.
    QLD and WA should be mostly little change. SA isn’t looking good for the Coalition. Tasmania and the NT maybe some chance of the Coalition getting a small increase.
    It doesn’t seem to be the type of sentiment to consolidate major party support so any gains from Independents should be minor.
    On current primaries it’s hard to see the Coalition picking up sufficient seats to form government so that leaves either a Labor majority or minority government.

  2. Albo remains weak because he just doesn’t seem to be able to fight for his legacy, or even care about it in any meaningful way.

    After he lost the 2023 Voice referendum I was prepared to try to stand up for him, but he just sulked ever since then and didn’t even attempt to try and fight back. Just the stock-standard “Just go with the status quo” neoliberal bullshit.

    Yes I will try my best to fight for his government’s re-election in 2025, but it’s not like he’s giving us much to work with at the moment.

  3. Monty Python lives!!!
    But, back in the real world, my wife mentioned this morning someone interviewed on 7 objecting to legislation restricting the young from social media sites, saying they were a parent and it impinged on the rights of their children
    My wife recalled my comment when raising our children that the biggest danger was parents – parents of other children and said the parents presented by 7 were exactly what I referred to
    They also defended that the legislation could be got around
    I responded that we live by laws, principally put in place courtesy of the lowest common denominator, and that, despite these laws, we still have Police forces, we still have Courts of Law and we still have jails
    The reason for this is the minority who do not observe laws – and, unfortunately, they do and always will exist, to the detriment of society
    The very great majority observe the laws of the land – and accordingly respect their fellow citizens
    The reason media give prominence to the minority of recalcitrants is for question because by doing so they embolden – as Trump in my view will embolden a demographic we really do not want emboldened – the “tough man”, ruling by decree (in a time where DV is an issue because of a minority of men who are perpetrators)
    The same with cost of living – well there is always inflation confirmed by the band Central Bankers refer to – and where across the demographic we engage with being our contemporaries, our children (and we have a few) and our Grandchildren (of whom we have multiples more) we just do not see those the media produce, raising the question “where do they find these people and why no questioning of how and why they are in the circumstances they are in”. We have the definition of full employment (and our children seeking employees just can not find employees with commitment to the training hence a major problem) and we have wages which for the first time in 10 years are increasing in advance of inflation
    And if anyone thinks achieving in life does not come without struggles and set backs to be survived, well think again

    And in regards the complaining re Albanese and doing nothing would you care to expand to say what, in your view he should be doing over and above what is being done?
    Then we will see if this throwaway line is just undermining by opponents of a Labor government

  4. Mavis at 11.07 pm

    Russia is much weaker than Germany in dominating Europe.

    Look at a map 35 years ago, when the Berlin Wall fell, then compare now. The key change was Yeltsin’s decision in 1991 to break up the USSR. Now Russia has just two allies in Europe, one in the EU (Hungary) and another on its doorstep (Serbia). Not even the fascist PM in Italy supports Putin.

    Meanwhile Germany dominates the EU. If Germany fails to support Ukraine after Trump sacrifices Zelenskiy’s future, the reason will be domestic German politics, not Russian influence, which is minimal.

  5. I think the US foreign policy establishment are probably quite happy with how things are progressing in Ukraine. Another couple of years of this and Russia will have lost so much blood and treasure that combined with their death bed demographics that pretty much rules out Russia returning as a threat to American global hegemony.

    If that means a couple of million dead Ukrainians so be it .I suspect there will be a lot of pressure placed upon Trump by the intelligence services ,State department, Pentagon etc not to offer any concessions to Putin and to keep dragging this out for at least a couple more years.

  6. davidwh at 11.31 pm

    Why Tassie good for Libs when the Lib government in Tassie is incompetent and beyond a joke?

    Using Dr Bonham’s terms, the Fed Libs must suffer a state drag from a government that had big primary swings against it outside Hobart 8 months ago.

    Keen local observers think that Rebecca White will retain Lyons (same boundaries in Tassie). Only likely outcomes are status quo or Libs down 1 in Braddon.

  7. Thanks Dr.D
    Per Russia-Ukraine.
    I think Russia’s plan would be to create a landbridge all the way to Transnistria and landlock the remants of Ukraine around the 4 major towns of Ternopil, Rivne, Ivano Frankivsk and Lviv. ie: the old Western Ukraine circa 1920’s.
    Crimea is gone for good – ie: back in Russian hands, as it has been since 1783.
    Kyiv (Kiev) would be a seperate issue.
    Difficult position for Zelensky. Johnson has gone, Biden goes on Jan-20 and Scholz follows on Feb-23.
    I’m aware you have an expansive knowledge of the area, so keep the site in the loop pls.

  8. Nadia: it’s easier to look at the senate as a left-right split. Qld was 4-2 to the right in 2019, so as long as Labor don’t lose the state by an embarrassing margin, they flip it to 3-3. (Whether that flipped seat is LNP or One Nation doesn’t matter too much, although it’d be nice to see the back of Malcolm Roberts.)

    SA may be a chance for 4-2 to the left, if the SA Libs keep on being the current bin fire they currently are. Labor could even pick up Sturt in the lower house. That would also be a stone in the shoe for the Libs if they win the 2028 election.

    Tassie… absolute wildcard. The Greens aren’t going anywhere. Lambie might lose her seat, but who to? Labor got less than two quotas in 2022, so if there’s a small JLN-ALP swing it changes nothing for Labor, while if Lambie gets knocked out there’s a good chance the Libs get her seat (for a vanilla 3-3 result).

    WA… interesting. The Libs here are openly the political wing of Kerry Stokes’ media empire, so it’ll be fun watching the West try to spin an state election result that’s (a) one of the biggest swings against Labor in Australian history and (b) still a landslide win for Labor, and then trying to make a federal point out of that. If the federal election is soon after the state one, Stokes might be too busy trying to get his boy Basil into the big chair.

    Seats in WA: Tangney should go back to the Libs and Bullwinkel will be tricky with no incumbent, but Sam Lim gets a sophomore boost and Labor may get more preferences from Mia Davies than you’d expect for a Nat, so they’re not lost causes. (If Davies somehow wins, it’ll be highly amusing watching her sitting in the same party room as Barnaby Joyce.) The extra senate seat is probably a one-off.

  9. And I would add, what and where is the alternative? Obviously with the budgetary position inherited (noting there was a requirement to support citizens during a WHO described pandemic) there have been constraints including because of global inflation
    So, given these start points and the damage high inflation inflicts across society, what are the alternatives?
    Instead of glib throwaway lines designed to undermine regardless

  10. Dr Doolittle I didn’t say Tasmania would be good just that between Tasmania and NT they may have some chance of a small increase.

  11. Hi Bird of Paradox,

    QLD: On current polling it looks like a 3 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 GRN split.
    Strong result for the conservatives in 2019, but I don’t see it repeated going by the recent state figures.
    The Greens actually increased their primary at the last QLD election, despite losing a seat.
    So most likely net result – ALP up 1, PHON down 1. So yes, probably bye bye Malcolm.
    The LNP primary, if it holds, is sufficient to elect 3 Senators.

    SA: Most likely a 3 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 GRN split, but yes you’re right the state LNP are a basket case, at least going by the Black election thread and comments last night. Could very well be a 2 LNP, 3 ALP, 1 GRN split if last nights swing is replicated federally.

    TAS: I think time is up for Jacqui. She lost her fellow Senator, and lost two state colleagues. The old “division is death” rule may knock her out. Meher is in Tassie I think, along with KB, so I keep an eye on what they post. QLD’ers have a big “bullshitometer”, but Tasmanians are very much geared toward “no nonsense”. I think time might be up for Jacqui.

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