Federal polls: Newspoll and Resolve Strategic (open thread)

Two new polls find improvement in Peter Dutton’s personal ratings, but only minor changes on voting intention.

Two new polls out this evening, one being the first Newspoll result from The Australian in four weeks, showing the Coalition with an unchanged two-party lead of 51-49. Both major parties are up two on the primary vote, Labor to 33% and the Coalition to 40%, with the Greens down one to 11% and One Nation down two to 5%. Anthony Albanese is steady on 40% approval and up one on disapproval to 55%, while Peter Dutton is up two on approval to 40% and down one on disapproval to 51%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 45-37 to 45-41. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1261.

Nine Newspapers has the monthly Resolve Strategic poll has Labor unchanged on 30%, the Coalition up one to 39%, the Greens down one to 11%, One Nation steady on 5%, independent down one to 11% and others up one to 4%. I reckon this to put two-party preferred somewhere between 50-50 and 51-49 to the Coalition, based on preference flows at the 2022 election. Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 37% and down one on disapproval to 51%, while Peter Dutton is up four to 45% and down one to 40%. The two leaders are tied 37-37 on preferred prime minister, after Albanese led 38-35 last time.

The poll also finds 26% rating Donald Trump positively and 55% negatively, compared with 41% and 25% for Kamala Harris, with 40% considering Trump’s election will be bad for Australia compared with 29% for good. A series of findings on foreign policy questions, one being that 27% agreement that Australia should pause or withdraw from the AUKUS nuclear submarines arrangement with 35% disagreeing. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1621.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

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