Click here for full display of Queensland state election results.
Counting has more-or-less wrapped up for the Queensland election, with a final result of 52 seats for the LNP (up 18 on 2020), 36 for Labor (down 16), three for Katter’s Australian Party (unchanged on 2020, but down one on what they went into the election with), one for the Greens (down one), one independent (unchanged) and nothing for One Nation (down one on 2020, unchanged on what they went into the election with). Apart from a handful of seats where preference distributions are yet to be finalised, my results system, linked to above, has been brought up to speed with all this. This includes my all-but-final estimate of a 53.9-46.1 win for the LNP on statewide two-party preferred. Labor can perhaps take some solace from the fact that this was narrower than the 54.3-45.7 result in its favour in New South Wales last March, which failed to yield a majority there.
Two squeakers were decided in favour of Labor, the closest being Aspley, where incumbent Bart Mellish finished the preference distribution with 17,889 votes to LNP candidate Amanda Cooper’s 17,858, a margin of 31. Labor had to sweat on the distribution to confirm Barbara O’Shea’s win over Greens incumbent Amy MacMahon in South Brisbane, the point at issue being whether O’Shea survived exclusion at the second last count ahead of the LNP. This was accomplished by a margin of 105 votes, or 11,374 to 11,269. MacMahon led with 12,346 votes at this point, but this was immaterial as Labor received 8239 of the preferences flowing from the exclusion of the LNP while the Greens received only 3030.
As an indication of the impact of LNP how-to-vote cards, which had Labor last in 2020 and the Greens last this time, it is instructive to compare this with 2020, when the Greens received 5296 preferences upon the exclusion of the LNP whereas Labor received only 3011: in other words, Labor’s share went from 36.2% to 73.1%. This is only slightly compromised by the fact that not all the votes distributed at this point were LNP first preferences: the LNP had picked up 797 preferences from One Nation on this occasion, and 691 from various sources in 2020.
The ECQ site declares Glen Kelly of the LNP the winner in Mirani, which Stephen Andrew won for One Nation in 2017 and 2020 and contested this election as the candidate of Katter’s Australian Party. Unless I was hallucinating, the ECQ site showed a preference distribution as of early yesterday that showed Andrew had in fact retained the seat by the barest of margins at the final count. However, this has since been removed, and beyond the fact of Kelly’s election, we are told only that “the elected candidate has received a majority of votes” and “the full distribution of preferences will be published upon completion”.
Miles will be nothing but a barking chihuahua in opposition. No one will bother listening to him just like no one bothers listening to any state opposition leader. The LNP have tens of millions of dollars to spend on self promotion, just like Labor did to drown out any opposition. We see now the huge cost blow outs hidden away. Pioneer pumped hydro not even sunwater thought it was viable. The Olympics plans that are already blowing out in costs, but this labor government hid themn away. Like the amount of money miles threw at Rio Tinto and the special deal palaszczuk gave to Adani. All super secret. They should be checked for corruption, otherwise why the secrecy?
On top of that will be the electoral changes. Changing donation laws so they are less corrupt and bringing back optional preferential voting.
My take on the ALP losing the regional areas was that people felt rightly or wrongly that they were not receiving their fair share. A whole lot of elements mixed into this including youth crime but also that places like central Qld thought they they were producing the mineral riches that were getting siphoned into the south east corner while they drove around on goat tracks and had to go to Brisbane for any sort of complicated medical treatment. Anyway these former strongholds of the ALP were primed to revolt and the LNP ran the perfect campaign to exploit this anger. Brisbane sucking off our riches and building expensive infrastructure while we’ve only got goat tracks and young hooligans running amok around the aforementioned goat tracks. The LNP over the next four years will have the challenge of satisfying this regional discontent whilst Brisbane is getting bigger as a percentage of state population and demanding more planning and expenditure especially with the Olympics approaching. Crime will also be very difficult to deal with especially with the expectations raised. So if Mr Crisifulli can manage these issues he will certainly be favourite to do even better next time but I can also see how Labor might be able to pull back regional support if the LNP does not meet expectations .
Jolly Jumbuck @ #51 Monday, November 11th, 2024 – 3:48 pm
I wouldn’t be to sure about that claim of nobody bothers listening to opposition leaders. In Victoria after 2010, Dan Andrews did the heavy groundwork of building up a return campaign in opposition and succeeded in winning the next 3 elections.
Steven Miles could do well to learn from what he did to achieve that. Even if Miles did in fact lose the election, he had only been Premier for about a year, and managed to wind back a devastating 60-40 loss into a more recoverable 54-46 loss. And he has 4 years to both try to win voters back, and put the LNP to account.
Of course if in the end Queensland does in fact discount him as an annoying yapping Chihuahua by the end of 2026, then yes, that would be high time he resigned and someone else take over.
People do pay attention to state opposition leaders when the Government appears to be off the track on an issue. They just need to find something that the public things their side is better at and that the Government is ballsing up. Normally for Labor, it is health or education, and for the LNP side, it is money issues or law and order. But if the last time in government, the opposition made a meal out of the issue, then no dice.
Miles sticking around as Opposition leader is not a dumb thing. He sticks around for two years, if he is getting no traction then switch in the old Dick (Milton is younger). But if he is showing strength let him go to the election.
I believe all the preference distributions are up now. The LNP won Mirani over Stephen Andrew by 16,333 to 15,713:
https://www.pollbludger.net/qld2024/Results/LA.htm?s=Mirani
2PP swings to LNP v ALP Brisbane (Greater Brisbane) Southside and seat results:
Apologies for any I may have missed.
1.9% Mansfield – ALP Retained
3.2% Bulimba – ALP Retained
3.2% Miller – ALP Retained
3.4% Greenslopes – ALP Retained
4.8% Waterford – ALP Retained
5.3% Mount Ommaney – ALP Retained
5.3% Stretton – ALP Retained
5.5% Toohey – ALP Retained
5.8% Redlands – ALP lost to LNP
6.2% Springwood – ALP Retained
7.2% Chatsworth – LNP Retained
7.2% Jordan – ALP Retained
7.3% Oodgeroo – LNP Retained
7.6% Macalister – ALP Retained
7.9% Woodridge – ALP Retained
9.1% Logan – ALP Retained
10.3% Algester – ALP Retained
10.3% Lytton – ALP Retained
11.7% Capalaba – ALP Lost to LNP
15.5% Inala – ALP Retained
Thanks Fargo61, and also for all the detail you’ve provided on this and the previous QLD threads.
Good tipping of yours too re: the U.S. election.
From memory you got in quite early, so you obviously read the play very well.
I think there were only 12 of us who picked him, and 57 who went the other way.
Thankyou Nadia.
While there was generally a perception of a greater swing the further you went away from the Brisbane CBD, the four southside seats with the biggest swing are within the BCC boundaries , and the next four (mainly in each case I think, at least) outside the BCC area.
Oodgeroo (previously named Cleveland) and Mansfield used to have similar outcomes and swing together, but that stopped happening about four elections ago. Oodgeroo now very safe LNP. Not sure why. There has been, and is ongoing very large unit complexes built within 1km of Cleveland train station, but whether mainly bought by working age folk or retirees I know not.
By the way, there has to be a redistribution before the next QLD election. The last was in 2017 and relevantly:
“The need for an electoral redistribution arises on the later of the following days—
(a)the day that is 1 year after the writ is returned for the second general election held after the previous redistribution becomes final;
(b)the day that is 7.5 years after the previous redistribution becomes final”
(Section 38 of 1992 Electoral act).
AG was correct to leave Mulgrave in doubt to the DOP. It was a 623 gap between Katter and Labor when ONP was excluded which mean’t there was some doubt there. Katter got a much stronger flow of preferences from ONP than the LNP. I thought they would evenly split and the seat was a foregone conclusion but was wrong and the ABC were correct in their analysis. And if Katter had got ahead of Labor on the final exclusion they would have won the seat on Labor preferences.
Puminstone was tighter as well at 290 votes or 50.4% winning margin but it will be good for the LNP to have a new young member.
36 seats is a pretty good clawback from Miles, given where the ALP was 6 months before the election.
Given some of the alleged experts here were suggesting 18-25 seats, quite commendable.
Deserves to stay as oppo leader, at least for a couple of years.
Keep the heat on Crisafulli and co and who knows where we will be in 4 years.
Michael we will take Ariana under our wings and look after her. Actually she seems more mature than her age.