The Age reports the bi-monthly Victorian state poll from Resolve Strategic finds both Labor and the Coalition up a point on the primary vote, to 28% and 38% respectively, with the Greens down one to 13%. No two-party result is provided, but I would estimate it at around 50.5-49.5 in favour of the Coalition. John Pesutto takes the lead over Jacinta Allan of 30-29 as preferred premier, reversing the result from last time. The poll combining results from the pollster’s last two monthly national polls, with a combined sample of 1000.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of Victorian politics. The open thread for general discussion is here.
In the past 12 months the state ALP vote has fallen 9 and the LNP vote is up 7.
ie: A not so insignificant 16 point turnaround.
Likewise, the Federal vote intention out of Vic over the past 12 months has seen the ALP drop 6 and the LNP gain 4. ie: a 10 pt turnaround.
Scroll through the link in the intro page above.
I don’t detect “baseball bats” in Victoria, though there is unrest about some aspects of the Big Build Project (The SRL being top of the list), and changes to stamp duty thresholds imposed earlier this year.
It’s tricky to convert state vote intention to Federal, but the trend is clearly there and I believe Federal Labor may be in trouble in Victoria. (They’ll be losing divisions, not gaining on these figures).
Election wise; “Albo first, Jacinta second”.
Labor are in real trouble in Victoria. The fact is their mad rush to tax housing has added fuel to the housing crisis. The outrageous amount of debt the state has acquired to fund their vanity projects like the SRL is also a real problem.
Yep. Victoria needs to be watched closely over summer, especially the first few polls which come out early next year. I see Dutton has drawn level on the PPM stakes in the latest resolve. In comparison in April, Albo was leading 41-32. There seems to be a distinct pattern away from Labor to the LNP despite the “continuous clown show” which the Vic LNP seem to exhibit.
I generally keep an eye on what the Victorian based posters have to say. I gather you’re Vic based if you don’t mind me asking.
There’s another Vic based vote poll (which has already been canvassed on this site a month ago), which is a good reference.
Link: https://redbridgegroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/RedBridge-report-Victorian-state-vote-intention-Oct-2024.pdf
Myki cost blow out does not help the Victorian Government:
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/it-s-a-touchy-subject-but-next-gen-myki-might-already-be-on-the-ropes-20241110-p5kpcz.html
Steve Bracks’ Labor government first committed to bringing in smartcard ticketing for the state’s trains, trams and buses in 2004, at a cost of just under $1 billion. It promised the system would be up and running by 2007, consigning paper Metcards to history.
It ultimately took seven more years for myki to become fully operational, and cost the state about 55 per cent more – $1.55 billion – to roll it out.
…
Despite the system’s many troubles, myki’s operator, NTT Data, won a $690 million, seven-year contract extension in 2016, beating out rivals who operated more advanced ticketing systems in cities such as Sydney and London.
It wasn’t until that contract expired last year that the state Labor government finally made the call to cut myki loose and award Conduent a $1.7 billion, 15-year contract to take over the ticketing system.
A billion here, a billion there and soon we are talking about real money.
In hindsight Bracks should have made public transport free. Myki probably cost Brumby government, and the succession to Myki is at least a little factor now. The mismanagement of a basic ticketing system is unreal.
Despite the eternal Liberal and media hostility to public transport projects, I don’t gather the SRL as a negative for Labor. The COVID era debt (and cuts to help pay for it) and Comm Games debacle, and the fact that the Metro Tunnel Project hasn’t yet opened, and people have not yet had a reason to warm to Allen.
The Metro Tunnel opening, if smooth, will be a big boost, as the completion of the first level crossing removals were for Andrews.
The Vic election is in November 2026. November. 2026. 2 years away.
By then:
1) The SRL will be complete.
2) The massive road projects will be complete.
3) Trump will have reminded the casual observer of just how bad he was
4) PM Dutton will be on the nose, cos people will see just how god awful he is.
It is only once much needed infrastructure is built that people see the benefit. The SRL has been to two elections. The ALP won all the seats along the corridor…… The media and the LNP hate public transport projects. The “always independent” runs and anti-SLR article, an anti-Jacinta article and a pro-article every single day. (Today’s paper ticks all three – again.) Meanwhile the punters get on with their lives.
Jacinta will lose seats but comfortably retain government.
The Greens will pick up a few. The Libs will win a few with some really ordinary candidates. The Libs have been completely overtaken by hardcore religious fundies in this state.
When push comes to shove in Victoria, Labor will still be in government. An election is two years away, Jacinta Allen is building her profile, John Pesutto lost his seat in 2018 and regained it in 2022, so he is well known to election night count watchers as the Liberal commentator on TV watching increduulously as his once safe seat was lost to a retired school teacher.
Pesutto has a problem in that he is apparently more popular with the public than with this own party. His party is infested with Far Right activists more concerned with culture wars than real policies. Moira Deeming is one of the spear carriers. She has sued her erstwhile leader for defamation. Pesutto will be lucky to survive as leader to the 2026 election.
This poll comes at a time while the Age is campaigning against the suburban rail link and the metro tunnel project which are both aimed to serve a future Victoria. The Age and the Liberals look backwards to the Melbourne which once was. The radial rail service to serve the CBD is the past. Linking the outer suburbs (and the Airport) are the future.
2026 is a long way into the future. If a week in politics is a long time, two years is an eternity.
@MABWM
A couple of details:
1) You mean the Metro Tunnel 1 will be complete. SRL will have only just started digging.
2) The West Gate Tunnel should open in 2025, however the really massive road project (NE Link) won’t be completed until 2028. This is the real money black hole – much more of a waste than the SRL. But because it’s a road, no complaints from the Libs or The Age.
3) and 4) you’re correct though.
MABWMsays:
Wednesday, November 13, 2024 at 2:12 pm
The Vic election is in November 2026. November. 2026. 2 years away.
By then:
1) The SRL will be complete.
_____________________
Fact check on that one please.
The SRL came out of nowhere i.e. Daniel Andrews office before an election. It had never been on the planning radar previously, no business case, no evidence of need – ‘build it and they will come’ – no proper costings, and it did not come via Infrastructure Victoria so no proper process. No wonder the Feds will not give them a zack despite the promise too. It will be a financial albatross for decades to come. No one will ever go right round the outside. Most of the links could be done with a fast light rail. Every project has blown out in cost and time. And a lot of money has been wasted.
There has never been any intention that anyone would ever go all the way around the SRL – that’s not the point. The idea is simply that people can interchange between lines, which isn’t currently possible without going into the CBD, and certain of the stations become major urban redevelopment sites (especially Monash).
Regarding it coming out of nowhere – correct that it didn’t go via Infrastructure Victoria, but there was planning going on, albeit very carefully under wraps until the election. Variations on the idea have been discussed at varying levels of seriousness for decades – originally the Rowville line proposed in the 60s was also intended to be a link between the Pakenham and Belgrave lines, via Monash and Waverley Park.
Light rail wouldn’t effectively do what the SRL will regarding interconnection – above ground and along suburban streets would be much slower. Trams work for intensive local transport, relatively short distances with numerous stops, whereas the SRL is relatively long distances with relatively few stations.
Yep – Metro Tunnel.
Buckle up neocons – we are going to have a population in 8 figures in a decade or two. The people who don’t live in South Yarra need public transport too.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/the-victorian-health-services-left-with-less-than-a-day-s-cash-to-spare-20241114-p5kqld.html
So today we see more reports that the Victorian health system is being starved of funds. This is an ongoing train wreck for the Allan Government and definitely shows a lack of competence.
Health system in trouble due to todays release of debt figures by state labor government.
30 sept/2024 Victorian state gov debt 140 .7 billion net debt up 20 billion in a year and even worse up 7.4 billion since June 30 this year.
Interest bill has surged 28 % stretching ability to fund health fully.AFR today.
Disaster an unpopular dud leader leftie .Still two years left!On top of this add 20 billion plus for dud suburban tunnels.